(11-23-2022 12:49 AM)sierrajip Wrote: Tulane was my choice. I voted this that Tulane will beat UC and will beat UH or UCF in the AAC Championship game. My only worry would be Coastal Carolina, but the CFP committee is not giving them respect.
I don't think Coastal has a shot anymore. The CFP made that clear last night. Unfortunately, not playing Virginia last weekend hurt them.
There also seems to be a clear AAC bias within the committee, because the AAC is not that stacked compared to the rest of the G5. You can't convince me that an 8-3 UCF is better than a 9-1 Coastal, but I'm not on the committee.
Having not played a P5 team is a major factor. By comparison, UCF and Cincinnati each played two P5 teams (each finishing 1-1) and Tulane played one (1-0). It probably also didn't help Coastal got blown out 49-21 to Old Dominion and barely got by Gardner-Webb.
(11-23-2022 12:49 AM)sierrajip Wrote: Tulane was my choice. I voted this that Tulane will beat UC and will beat UH or UCF in the AAC Championship game. My only worry would be Coastal Carolina, but the CFP committee is not giving them respect.
I don't think Coastal has a shot anymore. The CFP made that clear last night. Unfortunately, not playing Virginia last weekend hurt them.
There also seems to be a clear AAC bias within the committee, because the AAC is not that stacked compared to the rest of the G5. You can't convince me that an 8-3 UCF is better than a 9-1 Coastal, but I'm not on the committee.
Having not played a P5 team is a major factor. By comparison, UCF and Cincinnati each played two P5 teams (each finishing 1-1) and Tulane played one (1-0). It probably also didn't help Coastal got blown out 49-21 to Old Dominion and barely got by Gardner-Webb.
I don't think playing (and beating) Virginia last week would have made much difference. Even their G5 schedule was pretty weak, including their conference schedule.
(11-23-2022 12:49 AM)sierrajip Wrote: Tulane was my choice. I voted this that Tulane will beat UC and will beat UH or UCF in the AAC Championship game. My only worry would be Coastal Carolina, but the CFP committee is not giving them respect.
I don't think Coastal has a shot anymore. The CFP made that clear last night. Unfortunately, not playing Virginia last weekend hurt them.
There also seems to be a clear AAC bias within the committee, because the AAC is not that stacked compared to the rest of the G5. You can't convince me that an 8-3 UCF is better than a 9-1 Coastal, but I'm not on the committee.
Having not played a P5 team is a major factor. By comparison, UCF and Cincinnati each played two P5 teams (each finishing 1-1) and Tulane played one (1-0). It probably also didn't help Coastal got blown out 49-21 to Old Dominion and barely got by Gardner-Webb.
Points well made, C-Ave. I agree fully.
It does look like the red carpet has been rolled out for the top AAC teams. If it's going to be an AAC team, it's most likely going to be a team that wins its last two games.
UCF would have to beat USF and then win the AAC championship game, or...
Tulane would have to beat Cincinnati and win the AAC championship game, or...
Cincinnati would have to beat Tulane and win the AAC championship game.
Q: Would it be possible for none of these teams to win their last 3 games?
A: Yes - if UCF loses to USF, and Cincy plays Tulane twice, and they split those two games.
Otherwise, the most likely scenario is that the winner of the Tulane-Cincy game plays UCF in the AAC CCG for the NY6 bid.
I think it's unlikely for Coastal to win their next 2 games without their primary quarterback, so while it's not the case at the moment that will likely resolve Coastal's lack of competitiveness for the G5 spot.
11-24-2022 01:38 AM
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(11-23-2022 12:49 AM)sierrajip Wrote: Tulane was my choice. I voted this that Tulane will beat UC and will beat UH or UCF in the AAC Championship game. My only worry would be Coastal Carolina, but the CFP committee is not giving them respect.
I don't think Coastal has a shot anymore. The CFP made that clear last night. Unfortunately, not playing Virginia last weekend hurt them.
There also seems to be a clear AAC bias within the committee, because the AAC is not that stacked compared to the rest of the G5. You can't convince me that an 8-3 UCF is better than a 9-1 Coastal, but I'm not on the committee.
Having not played a P5 team is a major factor. By comparison, UCF and Cincinnati each played two P5 teams (each finishing 1-1) and Tulane played one (1-0). It probably also didn't help Coastal got blown out 49-21 to Old Dominion and barely got by Gardner-Webb.
Points well made, C-Ave. I agree fully.
It does look like the red carpet has been rolled out for the top AAC teams. If it's going to be an AAC team, it's most likely going to be a team that wins its last two games.
UCF would have to beat USF and then win the AAC championship game, or...
Tulane would have to beat Cincinnati and win the AAC championship game, or...
Cincinnati would have to beat Tulane and win the AAC championship game.
Q: Would it be possible for none of these teams to win their last 3 games?
A: Yes - if UCF loses to USF, and Cincy plays Tulane twice, and they split those two games.
Otherwise, the most likely scenario is that the winner of the Tulane-Cincy game plays UCF in the AAC CCG for the NY6 bid.
If the AAC teams stumble, I would be curious to see how many fans Texas-San Antonio would bring to a NY6 bowl game.
(11-22-2022 07:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote: By overrating all 3 top AAC teams IMO it's pretty clear that the committee is telling us that the AAC champ has got the NY6 bid.
The Navy loss should have cost UCF.
Cincy and Tulane don't have any bad losses. Also, the bottom half of the top 25 is all full of suspect teams.
Yes, UCF loses at home to a dreadful 3-7 Navy team and barely budges- that is hard to fathom.
Agree. Who needs the so-called CFP selection committee "experts?" Why not just go with the average of the AP and Coaches polls?
I say it's a testament to what a good job the Committee has done that there's no groundswell to go back to the BCS formula.
Some of that is expansion from 2 to 4--since 2014, #5 and 6 haven't had much of a case that they were potential champions. But there hasn't been much griping over the last NY6 selection. I'm sure someone thinks they were jobbed every year, but nobody outside that fanbase seems to agree or care, or remember by the next summer.
(11-23-2022 11:58 AM)Yosef181 Wrote: I don't think Coastal has a shot anymore. The CFP made that clear last night. Unfortunately, not playing Virginia last weekend hurt them.
There also seems to be a clear AAC bias within the committee, because the AAC is not that stacked compared to the rest of the G5. You can't convince me that an 8-3 UCF is better than a 9-1 Coastal, but I'm not on the committee.
Having not played a P5 team is a major factor. By comparison, UCF and Cincinnati each played two P5 teams (each finishing 1-1) and Tulane played one (1-0). It probably also didn't help Coastal got blown out 49-21 to Old Dominion and barely got by Gardner-Webb.
Points well made, C-Ave. I agree fully.
It does look like the red carpet has been rolled out for the top AAC teams. If it's going to be an AAC team, it's most likely going to be a team that wins its last two games.
UCF would have to beat USF and then win the AAC championship game, or...
Tulane would have to beat Cincinnati and win the AAC championship game, or...
Cincinnati would have to beat Tulane and win the AAC championship game.
Q: Would it be possible for none of these teams to win their last 3 games?
A: Yes - if UCF loses to USF, and Cincy plays Tulane twice, and they split those two games.
Otherwise, the most likely scenario is that the winner of the Tulane-Cincy game plays UCF in the AAC CCG for the NY6 bid.
If the AAC teams stumble, I would be curious to see how many fans Texas-San Antonio would bring to a NY6 bowl game.
TCU loses to KSU and plays opposite UTSA in the Cotton? Game of the century for the RoadRunners.
(11-26-2022 08:50 PM)DavidSt Wrote: Tulane 10-2 faces UCF again, and UCF wins? Tulane will be 10-3
Cincinnati 9-3
UCF 8-3 and winning their game.
UTSA 10-2 faces Western Kentucky for CUSA championshi.
Ohio U 9-3
Boise State 9-3 unbeaten in MWC.
JMU 8-3
Coastal Carolina 9-2
Troy 10-2
South Alabama 10-2
If Tulane loses to UCF? I could see either UTSA or one of the 2 lose SBC teams get the NY6 bowl.
Absolutely not. It’s the AAC’s bowl no matter what. There is no way a school from the SBC or C-USA gets in ever. Strength of schedule matters and they don’t have it. A 3-4 loss AAC team gets in over a 1-2 loss team from the G4 any day of the week. Not to mention the issue of academics and markets. These big bowls do not want their stadiums sullied with less than programs from glorified FCS conferences. It’s just the facts.
(11-22-2022 07:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote: By overrating all 3 top AAC teams IMO it's pretty clear that the committee is telling us that the AAC champ has got the NY6 bid.
The Navy loss should have cost UCF.
Cincy and Tulane don't have any bad losses. Also, the bottom half of the top 25 is all full of suspect teams.
Yes, UCF loses at home to a dreadful 3-7 Navy team and barely budges- that is hard to fathom.
Agree. Who needs the so-called CFP selection committee "experts?" Why not just go with the average of the AP and Coaches polls?
I say it's a testament to what a good job the Committee has done that there's no groundswell to go back to the BCS formula.
(11-26-2022 08:50 PM)DavidSt Wrote: Tulane 10-2 faces UCF again, and UCF wins? Tulane will be 10-3
Cincinnati 9-3
UCF 8-3 and winning their game.
UTSA 10-2 faces Western Kentucky for CUSA championshi.
Ohio U 9-3
Boise State 9-3 unbeaten in MWC.
JMU 8-3
Coastal Carolina 9-2
Troy 10-2
South Alabama 10-2
If Tulane loses to UCF? I could see either UTSA or one of the 2 lose SBC teams get the NY6 bowl.
how if UCF is ranked and those clown teams aren't? Sorry but it's AAC spot much as that kills you. But keep on dreaming. The number of losses doesn't matter one bit. Also JMU and South Alabama aren't playing in the CCG, so they are utterly meaningless.
(11-26-2022 08:50 PM)DavidSt Wrote: Tulane 10-2 faces UCF again, and UCF wins? Tulane will be 10-3
Cincinnati 9-3
UCF 8-3 and winning their game.
UTSA 10-2 faces Western Kentucky for CUSA championshi.
Ohio U 9-3
Boise State 9-3 unbeaten in MWC.
JMU 8-3
Coastal Carolina 9-2
Troy 10-2
South Alabama 10-2
If Tulane loses to UCF? I could see either UTSA or one of the 2 lose SBC teams get the NY6 bowl.
how if UCF is ranked and those clown teams aren't? Sorry but it's AAC spot much as that kills you. But keep on dreaming. The number of losses doesn't matter one bit. Also JMU and South Alabama aren't playing in the CCG, so they are utterly meaningless.
LAST WEEK'S AP RANKINGS:
Sun Belt championship game: (#28) Troy (10-2) vs. (#23) Coastal Carolina (9-2)
CUSA championship game: (#26) UTSA (10-2) vs. UNT (7-5)
AAC championship game: (#25) UCF (9-3) vs. (#19) Tulane (10-2)
MWC championship game: (#29) Boise St. (9-3) vs. (#38) Fresno St. (8-4)
Highest Ranked Teams:
AP:
#19 TULANE #23 COASTAL CAROLINA (LOST TO JMU)
#25 UCF
#26 UTSA
#28 TROY
#29 BOISE STATE
#38 FRESNO STATE
.
Even if UTSA wins and Tulane loses, it seems likely that the AAC champ would get the NY6 bid. Why?
Because the only three teams in last week's CFP rankings were Tulane, UCF, and Cincinnati?
WHY? BECAUSE THE CFP COMMITTEE ARE A BUNCH OF BOZOS???
(This post was last modified: 11-27-2022 04:29 AM by Milwaukee.)
Tulane lost to Southern Mississippi and to UCF earlier in the season.
UTSA only 2 losses were to Houston in OT and to Texas.
UTSA worst lost was to a bowl bound Houston while Tulane worst lost was to a very sorry Southern Mississippi. UTSA should go if Tulane loses to UCF in the championship game. This would be a test to see what UTSA would look like when they join AAC in the future how they fare in the NY6 bowl.
My top 25 based on FF BPP Method (FresnoFanatic BasicPowerPoints…which is heavy on W-L and “SOS tiers”…H2H doesn’t matter as much because it’s a whole body of the season thing to me…THIS season).
1. TCU
2. Michigan
3. Georgia
4. Ohio State
5. USC
6. Alabama
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State
9. Clemson
10 Washington
11 Kansas State
12 Tulane
13 LSU
14 Oregon
15 Utah
16 Oregon State
17 Florida State
18 Texas
19 UCLA
20 North Carolina
21 Mississippi State
22 UCF
23 Mississippi
24 Purdue
25 South Carolina
(11-27-2022 07:02 AM)DavidSt Wrote: Tulane lost to Southern Mississippi and to UCF earlier in the season.
UTSA only 2 losses were to Houston in OT and to Texas.
UTSA worst lost was to a bowl bound Houston while Tulane worst lost was to a very sorry Southern Mississippi. UTSA should go if Tulane loses to UCF in the championship game. This would be a test to see what UTSA would look like when they join AAC in the future how they fare in the NY6 bowl.
Tulane beat a ranked Kansas State and a ranked Cincinnati, who did UTSA beat? Nobody notable.
/
Which G5 team will play in a NY6 bowl game?
