(12-07-2022 08:29 PM)Shockdaminkey Wrote:  

(12-07-2022 07:49 PM)Fluke Wrote:  Net always ranks Memphis lower than any of the other rankings for whatever reason. Been that way for a long time now

Okay, but NET is ranking the entire AAC lower than the other rankings excepting Houston.
I'm fairly sure that is the common experience of all AAC teams save for Houston this year and perhaps last.

Didn’t look at the disparity with the other teams but they look even more egregious. Being 70-100 spots different on some teams is pretty crazy. Turns some quad 2 games into quads 4

Unfortunately, with SMU's loss at home last night to Arizona State they fall to 183 in Kenpom, next to USF at 184, and near Tulsa at 189, with ECU now at 215. Any of the other 7 AAC teams that lose to those 4 this season may quickly see their hope of any post season tournament turn to ashes.

(12-05-2022 12:53 PM)Shockdaminkey Wrote:  Ranking models vary early in the season and tend to become more aligned late in the season, but some models are better early than others, for my money those are Kenpom then torvik. But at this stage of the season I think the strongest ranking variables are relative strength of schedule with record, and prominent opponent wins.

A to-date strength of schedule rank (kenpom) looks like this:
SOS / Record / KP rank / Prominent Opponent wins

Memphis: 25 / 6 & 2 / 25 / Mississippi-53, Stanford-68, Vanderbilt-85

Temple: 88 / 5 & 4 / 92 / Rutgers-30, Villanova-52, VCU-101

Wichita: 117 / 4 & 4 / 87 / Grand Canyon-108, Richmond-109

Houston: 152 / 8 & 0 / 1 / St.Mary-27, Oregon-43, Kent St.-72,OralBob-104

Cincinn: 224 / 6 & 3 / 69 / None

UCF: 225 / 6 & 2 / 74 / Ok. State-34, Santa Clara-106

Tulane: 344 / 5 & 3 / 98 / None

While Houston and Memphis clearly show up high in both ranking and results based on schedule, it looks like Temple is arguably the current third best AAC team based on schedule/results, with UCF fourth, WSU fifth, UC sixth, and Tulane seventh.

Looking at these numbers, plus the NET, barttorvik, and kenpom rankings, the group of second-tier teams (Tulane, WSU, Temple, Cincy, & UCF) seem to cluster together pretty closely. Based on what we've seen so far, it seems fairly likely that these teams will probably tend to split their series with each other.

If that happens, it will be hard for any of them to win more than 10 or 11 conference games - - and that in turn would tend to limit them to NIT bids, at best.

The only way for one of these teams to earn a NCAA bid will be to win a minimum of 12 or 13 conference games. It'll be interesting to see them battle each other for the possibility to do that.

That number is going to go way up in the next 3 games for the Tigers.

#11 Auburn, #8 Alabama, #51 Texas A&M

(12-08-2022 10:29 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  That number is going to go way up in the next 3 games for the Tigers.

#11 Auburn, #8 Alabama, #51 Texas A&M

And...one neutral, one away, one at home.

(12-08-2022 10:29 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  That number is going to go way up in the next 3 games for the Tigers.

#11 Auburn, #8 Alabama, #51 Texas A&M

Let’s hope so because once we get to conference play we may be each others only shot at Q1 games. GL against Auburn this weekend, kick their arse.

Looking forward to Saturday vs #8 alabama

(12-09-2022 09:40 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(12-08-2022 10:29 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  That number is going to go way up in the next 3 games for the Tigers.

#11 Auburn, #8 Alabama, #51 Texas A&M

Let’s hope so because once we get to conference play we may be each others only shot at Q1 games. GL against Auburn this weekend, kick their arse.

Well they're favored so we'll see how it goes. Espn us at 37% chance of winning. However I did see they won a close one to St.Louis.

We lost to them at their place in a close one. Auburn was at home and St.Louis only scored 2 points in the final five minutes. Auburn had to come from behind for the win.

AAC with 4 prominent opponent games today (in order of AAC team win probability):

Houston vs. Alabama (14)

Memphis vs. Auburn (15) Neutral site

Cincinnati vs. Xavier (29)

SMU vs. TCU (35) Neutral site

Opportunity for individual team and conference standing mobility.

Temple drops out of the KP top 100, falling to 114 with the loss to Penn today.
Houston goes to 2 after loss to Alabama.
Cincinnati not hurt much with it's loss to Xavier, still in the mid 70s.
WSU moves up a few spots after whooping on Longwood.
No real help and some hurt to the conference with the games today. Need Memphis to pull it out against Auburn.

Bearcats can't lose more than 5 in the aac and need 3 wins over Houston and Memphis (including the conference tournament). They seem done

2 bid league, max.

(12-10-2022 07:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  2 bid league, max.

Looks like a 2 bid league but there are some long shot options still and the conference tournament

(12-10-2022 07:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  2 bid league, max.

2 bid league "likely" but "up to" 4 bids... ucf has a decent resume they dont need to do anything crazy to get on the right side of the bubble ..and if tulane and temple finished #2 in the league i could see them in too

(12-10-2022 08:13 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-10-2022 07:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  2 bid league, max.

Looks like a 2 bid league but there are some long shot options still and the conference tournament

Well, there is always a possibility, but it's looking grim for now.

And difficult for somebody to break through in the AAC tourney, if they have to beat both Memphis and Houston to get there.

Not a terrible day for the league. Could’ve been better had we not choked and Temple not… uh done whatever they did.

Fans of schools with disappointing results to date should not give up hope yet.

One of the most appealing (and maddening depending on the situation) aspects of college basketball is the prospect of redemption in conference tournaments and unpredictable variables (eg, bad luck, injuries, etc) impacting outcomes.

(12-10-2022 08:27 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(12-10-2022 07:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  2 bid league, max.

2 bid league "likely" but "up to" 4 bids... ucf has a decent resume they dont need to do anything crazy to get on the right side of the bubble ..and if tulane and temple finished #2 in the league i could see them in too

If Temple finishes #2 in the American the whole conference is in trouble.

2 NCAA teams in the top 25.
4 Teams in the 51-100 range - which probably results in 2 NIT berths.

It's a 2+2 season for the AAC. We didn't do nearly enough to earn more.

(12-10-2022 07:58 PM)TripleA Wrote:  2 bid league, max.

Yup. It appears the AAC will have a fairly robust "middle belt" of teams that are on the cusp of competing for a NCAA bid. Several schools from that "middle belt" will have to quickly progress or the AAC might have trouble continuing as a consistent multi-bid after the next years membership shuffle.