Quote:A Twitter user Eurysthenes has put together a well written encapsulation of the modern electioneering challenge contrast against the midterm outcome. [LINK HERE] Strong, well-written insight is always good to review and consider. This is no exception.



[Kari] Lake fought a strong campaign but was unable to overcome the unprecedented ballot harvesting operation (83% of votes estimated to be Early / Absentee by ABC News) and likely widespread voter fraud and suppression, not to mention her opponent running the election as SoS.

This is also the reason why Laxalt was defeated in NV (where 79% of ballots were cast early) and Oz was defeated in PA. No excuse postal voting, ballot harvesting, and / or early voting are also permitted in GA, MI, and even FL.

Lake’s defeat means that the Arizona electoral system will continue to function as it has since 2020, and that Republicans will be unable to win any statewide election in the foreseeable future. The same is true of any state where such rules persist.


This is my estimation of the current electoral map as it stands. Whilst NV and GA are currently unwinnable, both have GOP governors who could – but may not – change this by 2024. Regardless, the Democrats have now guaranteed victory in 270 EVs worth of States.



This means that it is now no longer possible for Republicans to win the presidency under current conditions. It may be possible to retake the Senate in 2024 by flipping two or more of MT, WI, OH, WV, and possibly NV – but the Presidency is now a DNC Sinecure.

As we saw under the Obama regime, the Presidency no longer requires a majority in the legislature to govern. Expect to see a continued rise in the use of executive orders, and potentially increased conflict between the regime and the currently conservative-majority Supreme Court.

Obviously, this has substantial implications for the strategic landscape of US politics. The only issue for Republicans at a federal level going forward is election integrity. Nothing matters other than this.

All politics going forward is metapolitics. The battle for control of federal offices will now occur in the legislatures and the courthouses, not at the ballot box. Elections will be won by those who manage procedural outcomes – campaigns will be virtually irrelevant.

The good news is that this frees the right from the unceasing struggle between tactical and strategic victories, as the former are no longer plausible. Focus can be put solely into beneficially escalating the conflict without regard for short-term electoral consequences.

(This is the part where I issue a mea culpa over my brief period of advocacy for DeSantis. We all make mistakes. Given the above description, there is only one man for the job of GOP nominee in 2024…)

It is no longer viable to win by having good candidates and a popular message. GOP cannot win the Presidency in 2024 or beyond under current conditions. Decisions now should be taken with the reality of developing America’s cold civil war to our advantage, not winning particular elections.

Political energy now must be spent solely on destroying the Republican establishment and turning the GOP into a fully insurgent party. I for one hope that Blake Masters is acquainting himself with the Kentucky housing market – I hear Lexington is beautiful this time of year.

Useful discussion now must center on how the right of the GOP can demolish the GOPe, and how it must develop as it does so.

The conflict is going to intensify, and things are going to get rough, but we must ensure it does so to our advantage – the only way out is through. (LINK)

Link

“I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this—who will count the votes, and how.” -Stalin

Interesting map. Georgia (16 EV) and Arizona (11 EV) are the two big recent shifts that I see. Trump's attacks on McCain drove Arizona from reliably republican to reliably democrat. Georgia is still republican at the governor level, but Trump's carrying on about "stolen" election and McConnell's multiple stupid statements between election day and runoff day cost two Georgia senate seats. I think both Arizona and Georgia can be restored, but Arizona will take getting the McCain "machine" back into the fold and Georgia will take getting the republican party all back on the same sheet of music. Those 4 senate seats sure would look good about now.

Let's assume Georgia and Arizona can be brought back. The EV numbers would then be 246 R and 259 D, with 33 tossup/unknown. That's winnable with good shows in the tossups/unknowns.

If republicans embrace the libertarian/populist/conservative agenda that I have advanced elsewhere, they can attract enough blue collar votes to bring Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Virginia back into play, and push North Carolina and Wisconsin into lean R status. You would then have 246 R, 26 lean R, 212 D, 54 tossup/unknown. That's very doable election math, but that requires a lot of work on the part of republicans.

Election integrity needs to be a major issue for republicans, but "stolen" elections is a loser. Maybe it needs to be securely on the back burner until R's can win enough seats to be able to do something about it.

Or maybe put up better candidates and quit tryin to blame the system. Hillary’s campaign and voters got caught sleeping in 2016. And if you don’t think abortion right had something to do with this election you are making the same mistakes Hillary made. Ignoring what the voters are telling you.

(11-16-2022 05:42 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Interesting map. Georgia (16 EV) and Arizona (11 EV) are the two big recent shifts that I see. Trump's attacks on McCain drove Arizona from reliably republican to reliably democrat. Georgia is still republican at the governor level, but Trump's carrying on about "stolen" election and McConnell's multiple stupid statements between election day and runoff day cost two Georgia senate seats. I think both Arizona and Georgia can be restored, but Arizona will take getting the McCain "machine" back into the fold and Georgia will take getting the republican party all back on the same sheet of music. Those 4 senate seats sure would look good about now.

Let's assume Georgia and Arizona can be brought back. Ten the EV numbers would then 246 R and 259 D, with 33 tossup.

If republicans embrace the libertarian/populist/conservative agenda that I have advanced elsewhere, they can attract enough blue collar votes to bring Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Virginia back into play, and push North Carolina and Wisconsin into lean R status. You would then have 246 R, 26 lean R, 212 D, 54 tossup/unknown. That's very doable election math, but that requires a lot of work on the part of republicans.

Election integrity needs to be a major issue for republicans, but "stolen" elections is a loser. Maybe it needs to be securely on the back burner until R's can win enough seats to be able to do something about it.

now, muh election integrity matters?! ... I thought it was all about platform ... nuts zongo is easily confused ... a little latte to the game, Ja?!

blah ble blah ble blah ble blah ... that I easily understand...

funny ... I called into one of your Tejas boys shows today ... he stammered too when I asked who owns muh media and why mail-it-inns are not being addressed ... wtfe...

@hardlyTheLoneRanger

some of yaz are completely clueless until it's too fk'n latte...

yeah, ya dadgum spiffy I'm still pissed!

(11-16-2022 05:58 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  Or maybe put up better candidates and quit tryin to blame the system. Hillary’s campaign and voters got caught sleeping in 2016. And if you don’t think abortion right had something to do with this election you are making the same mistakes Hillary made. Ignoring what the voters are telling you.

#s will agree with that ... unless he took the red pill...

(11-16-2022 05:58 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  Or maybe put up better candidates and quit tryin to blame the system. Hillary’s campaign and voters got caught sleeping in 2016. And if you don’t think abortion right had something to do with this election you are making the same mistakes Hillary made. Ignoring what the voters are telling you.

Kari Lake was 10x a better candidate than Katie Hobbs. Even CNN & MSNBC heavily criticized Hobbs for her laziness and hiding from reporters while Lake was accessible to everyone. Lake expanded her lead in many polls and was expected to win. So the system at least Maricopa County actions is a major problem

Definite losses until the laws are changed......or until the Republicans build a similar ballot harvesting machine---which seems like something that can easily be done by 2024.

(11-16-2022 06:09 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 05:58 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  Or maybe put up better candidates and quit tryin to blame the system. Hillary’s campaign and voters got caught sleeping in 2016. And if you don’t think abortion right had something to do with this election you are making the same mistakes Hillary made. Ignoring what the voters are telling you.

Kari Lake was 10x a better candidate than Katie Hobbs. Even CNN & MSNBC heavily criticized Hobbs for her laziness and hiding from reporters while Lake was accessible to everyone. Lake expanded her lead in many polls and was expected to win. So the system at least Maricopa County actions is a major problem

That was a tough loss---but its clear to me Lake has a bright future in the Republican Party. She needs to set her sights on a Congressional race next time and Im confident she will win.

(11-16-2022 06:09 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 05:58 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  Or maybe put up better candidates and quit tryin to blame the system. Hillary’s campaign and voters got caught sleeping in 2016. And if you don’t think abortion right had something to do with this election you are making the same mistakes Hillary made. Ignoring what the voters are telling you.

Kari Lake was 10x a better candidate than Katie Hobbs. Even CNN & MSNBC heavily criticized Hobbs for her laziness and hiding from reporters while Lake was accessible to everyone. Lake expanded her lead in many polls and was expected to win. So the system at least Maricopa County actions is a major problem

Evidence? Take it to court. Or are they scared of the bench not ruling in their favor for the 65th plus time?

(11-16-2022 06:16 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:09 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 05:58 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  Or maybe put up better candidates and quit tryin to blame the system. Hillary’s campaign and voters got caught sleeping in 2016. And if you don’t think abortion right had something to do with this election you are making the same mistakes Hillary made. Ignoring what the voters are telling you.

Kari Lake was 10x a better candidate than Katie Hobbs. Even CNN & MSNBC heavily criticized Hobbs for her laziness and hiding from reporters while Lake was accessible to everyone. Lake expanded her lead in many polls and was expected to win. So the system at least Maricopa County actions is a major problem

Evidence? Take it to court. Or are they scared of the bench not ruling in their favor for the 65th plus time?

Take what to court? The ballot harvesting system? Its legal there--and while it may be fraught with illegal influence and perhaps even outright fraud---I dont know how you could prove it. Its far easier just to build a similar operation to systematically harvest hundreds of thousands of ballots from people who either dont really follow politics or would be willing to vote Republican as long as they dont have to lift a finger to do it. Its not complicated. I dont know where the return on investment changes---but at some point pouring another million into advertising probably becomes far less effective than taking that million dollars and allocating it ballot harvesting. In many elections, I wouldnt be surprised if that point is nearer to the first million than it is to the tenth million.

(11-16-2022 06:22 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:16 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:09 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 05:58 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  Or maybe put up better candidates and quit tryin to blame the system. Hillary’s campaign and voters got caught sleeping in 2016. And if you don’t think abortion right had something to do with this election you are making the same mistakes Hillary made. Ignoring what the voters are telling you.

Kari Lake was 10x a better candidate than Katie Hobbs. Even CNN & MSNBC heavily criticized Hobbs for her laziness and hiding from reporters while Lake was accessible to everyone. Lake expanded her lead in many polls and was expected to win. So the system at least Maricopa County actions is a major problem

Evidence? Take it to court. Or are they scared of the bench not ruling in their favor for the 65th plus time?

Take what to court? The ballot harvesting system? Its legal there--and while it may be fraught with illegal influence and perhaps even outright fraud---I dont know how you could prove it. Its far easier just to build a similar operation to systematically harvest hundreds of thousands of ballots from people who either dont really follow politics or would be willing to vote Republican as long as they dont have to lift a finger to do it. Its not complicated.

Nothing is secret any ore yet you want us to believe there is an actually coordinated effort going on and no one is talking about and no one can prove. Nah. You just pissed your candidates lost.

Machines were down in Maricopa after we were promised over & over everything was ready to go. That is a FACT.

That is also how I see the map but GA & WI Blue.

(11-16-2022 05:59 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  now, muh election integrity matters?! ... I thought it was all about platform ... nuts zongo is easily confused ... a little latte to the game, Ja?!

Hell, yes, election integrity matters. But you're not going to get a shot at election integrity without addressing platform first. You can't do anything about anything without winning elections.

(11-16-2022 06:27 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:22 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:16 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:09 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 05:58 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  Or maybe put up better candidates and quit tryin to blame the system. Hillary’s campaign and voters got caught sleeping in 2016. And if you don’t think abortion right had something to do with this election you are making the same mistakes Hillary made. Ignoring what the voters are telling you.

Kari Lake was 10x a better candidate than Katie Hobbs. Even CNN & MSNBC heavily criticized Hobbs for her laziness and hiding from reporters while Lake was accessible to everyone. Lake expanded her lead in many polls and was expected to win. So the system at least Maricopa County actions is a major problem

Evidence? Take it to court. Or are they scared of the bench not ruling in their favor for the 65th plus time?

Take what to court? The ballot harvesting system? Its legal there--and while it may be fraught with illegal influence and perhaps even outright fraud---I dont know how you could prove it. Its far easier just to build a similar operation to systematically harvest hundreds of thousands of ballots from people who either dont really follow politics or would be willing to vote Republican as long as they dont have to lift a finger to do it. Its not complicated.

Nothing is secret any ore yet you want us to believe there is an actually coordinated effort going on and no one is talking about and no one can prove. Nah. You just pissed your candidates lost.

Im afraid I have no idea what your babbling about. Can you point to where I said anything was "secret"? I said the Republicans need to create the same type of ballot harvesting operation---using the same techniques---because thats how you win in those places. Its no longer just about issues in those states. Its about harvesting ballots. Where ballot harvesting is legal----its not about candidates anymore---In those places its really about harvesting the ballots of the 50% of registered voters who really could care less about any of that political mumbo jumbo. There are literally millions of Republican votes there just waiting to be harvested if you create an organization that does it. Make it zero effort, and those votes are just waiting to be harvested.

Im disappointed we didnt win more of the close races---but the key take aways are the Democrats lost the House and 6 million more people across the US cast votes for Republicans than for Democrats. The Democrats LOST the popular vote. That tells me the candidates were fine and the issues favored Republicans. We just need to update our turnout model to operate like the Democrats do in states with ballot harvesting.

(11-16-2022 06:38 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 05:59 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  now, muh election integrity matters?! ... I thought it was all about platform ... nuts zongo is easily confused ... a little latte to the game, Ja?!

Hell, yes, election integrity matters. But you're not going to get a shot at election integrity without addressing platform first. You can't do anything about anything without winning elections.

let's review ... didn't work in '20 after 4 years of solvency under #DJTexperiment ... dayum sure didn't in '22 under the leadershite that we both agree is lacking via the lackey(s)...

until you acknowledge how mail-it-inn is ENEMY #1 (ya know, that enemy of muh enemy thingy?!), I'll simply to continue to rebuke in kind with what I believe is the real ENEMA!

Stink,

Nobody believes that election integrity is more important than I do. And after 40 years working with physical security and information security in both the military and civilian fields, I can state absolutely that our election integrity in the USA is woefully inadequate. I don't know whether the 2020, or 2022, or any other elections were stolen. And neither do you, nor anyone else on the planet, because with our inadequate controls there is no way to know.

That being said, two things need to be noted:

1) The reason all those lawsuits failed is because, after the fact, there is really nothing that can be done. The suits didn't fail because they were tried on the merits, but rather because there is no way after the fact to state a cause of action for which a judge can grant relief. Suppose you establish beyond all doubt that there are 40,000 fraudulent ballots in an election. For a judge to be able to grant relief, you have to establish WHICH 40,000 ballots they are, so he/she knows which ones to throw out. You can't do that after the fact. And neither could the plaintiffs in those lawsuits. So most, if not all, of them were dismissed as a matter of law. The only way to have secure elections is to have adequate before the fact controls to detect and prevent fraud. Much of the USA does not have those, and particularly in 2020, even those pathetic controls were overruled because of "COVID."

2) You can't do anything without winning elections. So you need a platform that can win elections before you can fix election integrity. Mail-in elections are a problem because security there is particularly lacking. But you can't fix that until you win an election.

(11-16-2022 07:36 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Stink,

Nobody believes that election integrity is more important than I do. And after 40 years working with physical security and information security in both the military and civilian fields, I can state absolutely that our election integrity in the USA is woefully inadequate. I don't know whether the 2020, or 2022, or any other elections were stolen. And neither do you, nor anyone else on the planet, because with our inadequate controls there is no way to know.

That being said, two things need to be noted:

1) The reason all those lawsuits failed is because, after the fact, there is really nothing that can be done. The suits didn't fail because they were tried on the merits, but rather because there is no way after the fact to state a cause of action for which a judge can grant relief. Suppose you establish beyond all doubt that there are 40,000 fraudulent ballots in an election. For a judge to be able to grant relief, you have to establish WHICH 40,000 ballots they are, so he/she knows which ones to throw out. You can't do that after the fact. And neither could the plaintiffs in those lawsuits. So most, if not all, of them were dismissed as a matter of law. The only way to ave secure elections is to have adequate before the fact controls to detect and prevent fraud. Much of the USA does not ave those, and particularly in 2020, even those pathetic controls were overruled because of COVID.

2) You can't do anything without winning elections. So you need a platform that can win elections before you can fix election integrity.

and I'm disagreeing with neither ...

to ad nauseam, it's all about how mail-it-inns/harvesting now rule the roost in varying states ... how many times do I need to 'state' it?!

ask BTM or any other posters ... they've figured that shite out as well...

why argue something we all agree with?! we all know the 'why' ... how ya fix that embedded bs is the issue!!!

w/o control in the governorship, it's a moot issue ... there's no chance in hades the blue states relinquish that version of control...

the question is why those that mostly bleed red haven't remedied this to date...

how about this ... the 'sip figured that bs out long ago ... how about FL ... yeah, let's start there....

(11-16-2022 06:49 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:27 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:22 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:16 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:09 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  Kari Lake was 10x a better candidate than Katie Hobbs. Even CNN & MSNBC heavily criticized Hobbs for her laziness and hiding from reporters while Lake was accessible to everyone. Lake expanded her lead in many polls and was expected to win. So the system at least Maricopa County actions is a major problem

Evidence? Take it to court. Or are they scared of the bench not ruling in their favor for the 65th plus time?

Take what to court? The ballot harvesting system? Its legal there--and while it may be fraught with illegal influence and perhaps even outright fraud---I dont know how you could prove it. Its far easier just to build a similar operation to systematically harvest hundreds of thousands of ballots from people who either dont really follow politics or would be willing to vote Republican as long as they dont have to lift a finger to do it. Its not complicated.

Nothing is secret any ore yet you want us to believe there is an actually coordinated effort going on and no one is talking about and no one can prove. Nah. You just pissed your candidates lost.

Im afraid I have no idea what your babbling about. Can you point to where I said anything was "secret"? I said the Republicans need to create the same type of ballot harvesting operation---using the same techniques---because thats how you win in those places. Its no longer just about issues in those states. Its about harvesting ballots. Where ballot harvesting is legal----its not about candidates anymore---In those places its really about harvesting the ballots of the 50% of registered voters who really could care less about any of that political mumbo jumbo. There are literally millions of Republican votes there just waiting to be harvested if you create a machine that does it. Make it zero effort, and those votes are just waiting to be harvested.

Im disappointed we didnt win more of the close races---but the key take aways are the Democrats lost the House and 6 million more people across the US cast votes for Republicans than for Democrats. The Democrats LOST the popular vote. That tells me the candidates were fine and the issues favored Republicans. We just need to update our turnout model to operate like the Democrats do in states with ballot harvesting.

And it is only ballot harvesting when your candidate loses right? Occam’s razor, voters preferred the other candidate. Millennials turned out in record numbers. But 6 million more voters is a mind _____ to you? Do you honestly think young people are going to split evenly R or D?

As bad as the Dems are the voters took a look and found the Republicans lacking even more. That should tel you something either about the candidate/their party’s platform.

(11-16-2022 10:18 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:49 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:27 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:22 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-16-2022 06:16 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  Evidence? Take it to court. Or are they scared of the bench not ruling in their favor for the 65th plus time?

Take what to court? The ballot harvesting system? Its legal there--and while it may be fraught with illegal influence and perhaps even outright fraud---I dont know how you could prove it. Its far easier just to build a similar operation to systematically harvest hundreds of thousands of ballots from people who either dont really follow politics or would be willing to vote Republican as long as they dont have to lift a finger to do it. Its not complicated.

Nothing is secret any ore yet you want us to believe there is an actually coordinated effort going on and no one is talking about and no one can prove. Nah. You just pissed your candidates lost.

Im afraid I have no idea what your babbling about. Can you point to where I said anything was "secret"? I said the Republicans need to create the same type of ballot harvesting operation---using the same techniques---because thats how you win in those places. Its no longer just about issues in those states. Its about harvesting ballots. Where ballot harvesting is legal----its not about candidates anymore---In those places its really about harvesting the ballots of the 50% of registered voters who really could care less about any of that political mumbo jumbo. There are literally millions of Republican votes there just waiting to be harvested if you create a machine that does it. Make it zero effort, and those votes are just waiting to be harvested.

Im disappointed we didnt win more of the close races---but the key take aways are the Democrats lost the House and 6 million more people across the US cast votes for Republicans than for Democrats. The Democrats LOST the popular vote. That tells me the candidates were fine and the issues favored Republicans. We just need to update our turnout model to operate like the Democrats do in states with ballot harvesting.

And it is only ballot harvesting when your candidate loses right? Occam’s razor, voters preferred the other candidate. Millennials turned out in record numbers. But 6 million more voters is a mind _____ to you? Do you honestly think young people are going to split evenly R or D?

As bad as the Dems are the voters took a look and found the Republicans lacking even more. That should tel you something either about the candidate/their party’s platform.

lol---you realize Democrats lost more elections last Tuesday than Republicans right? You do realize that the popular vote went AGAINST Democrats. So yes, ballot harvesting was likely a major factor that allowed a handful of substandard Democrat candidates to narrow wins despite pushing unpopular policies that have caused inflation, high gas costs, high food costs, high crime, and lagging wages.

Wait---what am I doing? Never mind. Im wrong. Do what Biden said---"Dont change change a thing". Keep pushing the same policies that have reduced oil supplies, increase food prices, caused high gas prices, and cause crime to skyrocket. Clearly Democrats have really tapped into something that I think voters love and Im certain voters will give them their just reward in 2024. Dont change a thing!! Heck---polling says nearly 25% of voters absolutely LOVE the path Biden has the nation on. Heck, no way 81 million people could all be wrong!!

(11-16-2022 06:16 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  Evidence? Take it to court. Or are they scared of the bench not ruling in their favor for the 65th plus time?

I think you are misinterpreting the results of the court cases.

Here is the problem. It is not enough to win in court to prove that there were fraudulent ballots. You have to prove WHICH ballots were the fraudulent ones, and once they are all in the ballot box they are essentially fungible, looking pretty much all the same, and it is virtually impossible to identify the fraudulent ones. Once a ballot gets into the box, it's not coming back out. Voting fraudsters know that, and know that once they get the ballots in, their work is done.

It is my understanding that the 65 plus cases to which you refer were almost all, if not all, dismissed by the courts as a matter of law for failing to state an actionable claim, rather than tried on the merits and failed. Being able to demonstrate that fraud occurred and being able to prove which specific ballots are fraudulent are two vastly different evidentiary matters, and without the second courts are powerless to reverse the outcomes of elections.