(11-07-2022 01:28 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 12:55 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 12:50 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 11:02 AM)e-parade Wrote:  If true, I feel happy for SDSU. The PAC is what they wanted and have striven for, and they could finally be getting the call up.

SDSU was already close to average Pac value, the only holding them back has been a 12th to go with them. Either the Pac decided to preemptively add them without a 12th, or there's a 12th lurking, or perhaps a Gonzaga + a football school. I wouldn't be surprised if Gonzaga factored into this, they'd certainly be additive to the new pac deal, and with the big 12 Yormarkin' at them the Pac likely felt a sense of urgency on that matter. SDSU is likely to be revenue neutral, leaving just perhaps a small per-team overall loss with Boise, Fresno, SMU or Hawaii (football only), perhaps not even a loss at all if their network partners have interest in specific schools. It's easy to make a case that Fresno/SDSU helps shore up SoCal, or SDSU/SMU brings in 2 great markets, or SDSU/Gonzaga/+1 football bring value and enthusiasm.

Of all those a Gonzaga Olympic plus SMU football only probably works for all parties - Gonzaga has great academics (of course) and also some other sports on par with P5. They could use Dallas market for recruiting.

Where would SMU put its non-football sports?

Yeah, I don't get that. SMU would be for all-sports.

The Big 12/Gonzaga leak seems to have prompted the Pac 12 to move on SDSU sooner than they wanted to.

Big 12 is acting.

Pac 12 is reacting.

(11-07-2022 01:39 PM)esayem Wrote:  Yeah, I don't get that. SMU would be for all-sports.

Maybe Conf USA would take them... but yeah, I don't think SMU would go for football only.

(11-07-2022 12:18 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:43 AM)BraveKnight Wrote:  I think SDSU is really the only no brainer addition for the PAC 12. All the other candidates have reasons they shouldn’t be added.

Boise- Bad academics, luster is fading
UNLV- sports aren’t very good, tiny fanbase
Hawaii- sports aren’t good, facilities are atrocious, far away
Fresno- Academics
Colorado State- sports aren’t very good, market already covered
New Mexico- bad everything
SMU- far away, small fanbase
Rice- sports aren’t good, tiny fanbase, far away

Hawaii is getting a new stadium and somebody shared some pics of their basketball arena and baseball stadium. Anything but atrocious.

For those who missed them, below are some pics of Hawaii's 10K-seat basketball arena and 4K-seat baseball stadium, which should clear up any misperception that our facilities are "atrocious". Interestingly, the design of the basketball arena was cloned from Baylor's.

As for the claim that Hawaii "sports aren't good", others have pointed out our historical .500+ winning percentage in football and post-season pedigree, which includes bowl wins over BYU in 2019 and Houston in 2020. In non-football sports our men's basketball team has averaged 19 wins per season (excluding the Covid-truncated 2020-21 season) since our current coach took over in 2015-16. We also do well in niche sports, especially men's volleyball (2021 and 2022 national champions), women's volleyball (four national titles and 28 consecutive NCAA tournament bids), women's water polo (#6 national ranking in 2022), beach volleyball (#13 national ranking in 2022), and women's basketball (defending Big West champions).

I'm pretty sure the Pac doesn't want Hawaii's non-football sports, but it's not because of facilities or performance. It's because the travel burden to the Islands is viewed as unacceptable.

(11-07-2022 11:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 11:02 AM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:49 AM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 10:43 AM)BraveKnight Wrote:  I think SDSU is really the only no brainer addition for the PAC 12. All the other candidates have reasons they shouldn’t be added.

Boise- Bad academics, luster is fading
UNLV- sports aren’t very good, tiny fanbase
Hawaii- sports aren’t good, facilities are atrocious, far away
Fresno- Academics
Colorado State- sports aren’t very good, market already covered
New Mexico- bad everything
SMU- far away, small fanbase
Rice- sports aren’t good, tiny fanbase, far away

Hawaii is building a new stadium, however. Football has been down but they have had success in the past. The islands do produce some D1 athletes. I like the pairing of Hawaii (football)/Gonzaga (Olympics).

Hawaii would be awful for the PAC, IMO. The travel is terrible, the academics are "meh", and the football tradition and history is nil.

If Hawaii was added, defections to the nB12 would soon follow, I think.

Just my take.

They have gone to 13 bowl games since 1999, including the Sugar Bowl in 2008. They won seven of those games, wins against BYU, Houston, (twice) and Arizona St.

IIRC, 10 of those 13 bowls have been ... the Hawaii Bowl. The other two are the New Mexico Bowl and the Sugar Bowl (15 years ago).

I don't know what Hawaii would bring to the PAC, other than 2,000 mile flights over the Pacific ocean, and a stranglehold on the Hawaii Bowl.

But I admit I am not a conference administrator, and have been wrong before.

Hawaii does offer that extra game and a very different time zone for broadcasts.

If anything, Hawaii is good for an after dark Friday dump. We saw the OSU UW game in that slot last week. That would be one of the more marquee games in the neoPac12, so Hawaii could fill that slot several times a year. Saturday after dark should be more Tier 1 than Hawaii at home.

Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports checks in:

https://twitter.com/dennisdoddcbs/status...eV3o8sAAAA

Getting UCLA to flip its decision and adding SDSU would be nice moves.

*IF* it's true and Patrick isn't as wrong on this as his sources have been on some other things, then it's probably just San Diego State. Gonzaga has a the best chance of anyone to be a 12th. If it has to be football, it's hard to see anyone other than SMU.

Personally I don't think they'll add anyone. Ten schools allows a complete round robin. Adding SDSU almost calls for dropping to 8 games (44 conference football games, versus 45 with 10 schools; but likely gives you around 27-28 OOC games versus about 18-20 now). It does up the basketball inventory dramatically (110 conference games verses 90 with 10 schools). Adding a 12th school definitely lowers the per school payouts. The Big 12 kind of trapped the Pac-12 into having to at least match $31.7M per school. SDSU would require a $350M deal, adding a 12th would require over $380M.

ESPN is the decider on this. Hard to see them throw an extra $65M to the Pac-12 simply for two G5 schools.

(11-07-2022 02:14 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  Getting UCLA to flip its decision and adding SDSU would be nice moves.

Not happening, but I'd imagine this is still the number one priority. They may get a 15% bump per school if they can retain UCLA (with perhaps Stanford getting the B1G invite. CU also a possibility for the B1G, in which case, Pac 12 could backfill with CSU.

perhaps leaked by SDSU to nudge the B12?

https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/statu...wJPNqt_ftg

Quote:Nicole Auerbach
@NicoleAuerbach
·
2h
Re: the report about the Pac-12 announcing the addition of SDSU as soon as this week, a source close to the situation tells @TheAthletic that the report is inaccurate.

It's been my understanding that the Pac-12 will do its media deal first before any conference expansion.

(11-07-2022 11:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 11:02 AM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  They have gone to 13 bowl games since 1999, including the Sugar Bowl in 2008. They won seven of those games, wins against BYU, Houston, (twice) and Arizona St.

IIRC, 10 of those 13 bowls have been ... the Hawaii Bowl. The other two are the New Mexico Bowl and the Sugar Bowl (15 years ago).

I don't know what Hawaii would bring to the PAC, other than 2,000 mile flights over the Pacific ocean, and a stranglehold on the Hawaii Bowl.

But I admit I am not a conference administrator, and have been wrong before.

ESPN owns the Hawaii Bowl. In years that Hawaii is bowl-eligible, it significantly reduces expenses to keep Hawaii at home and fly one team over to the Islands, as opposed to flying two teams to Hawaii and flying Hawaii to a Mainland bowl.

As for the long flights over the Pacific Ocean, since Hawaii's MWC membership is football-only, that travel burden only falls on other conference members once every two to three years. And since Hawaii is required to pay travel subsidies to visiting MWC teams, those flights are always chartered (unlike Hawaii's own trips to road games which are often on commercial flights to save money).

(11-07-2022 02:22 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  *IF* it's true and Patrick isn't as wrong on this as his sources have been on some other things, then it's probably just San Diego State. Gonzaga has a the best chance of anyone to be a 12th. If it has to be football, it's hard to see anyone other than SMU.

Personally I don't think they'll add anyone. Ten schools allows a complete round robin. Adding SDSU almost calls for dropping to 8 games (44 conference football games, versus 45 with 10 schools; but likely gives you around 27-28 OOC games versus about 18-20 now). It does up the basketball inventory dramatically (110 conference games verses 90 with 10 schools). Adding a 12th school definitely lowers the per school payouts. The Big 12 kind of trapped the Pac-12 into having to at least match $31.7M per school. SDSU would require a $350M deal, adding a 12th would require over $380M.

ESPN is the decider on this. Hard to see them throw an extra $65M to the Pac-12 simply for two G5 schools.

I agree and have said from the beginning that the most likely outcome is the Pac standing pat. I've also said that the next most likely outcome is adding SDSU alone. Hawaii has no shot except as a potential 12th football member paired with Gonzaga.

(11-07-2022 02:30 PM)Huan Wrote:  perhaps leaked by SDSU to nudge the B12?

https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/statu...wJPNqt_ftg

Quote:Nicole Auerbach
@NicoleAuerbach
·
2h
Re: the report about the Pac-12 announcing the addition of SDSU as soon as this week, a source close to the situation tells @TheAthletic that the report is inaccurate.

It's been my understanding that the Pac-12 will do its media deal first before any conference expansion.

SDSU and Zaga to the Big 12 makes a lot more sense and fits Yormark's recent comments. You could potentially lure Arizona as well. I'm not sure they would do that though if they have to end up take Memphis/USF at the 14th football school. Also, the shares would have to be reduced for G5 schools, but that can easily be negotiated.

(11-07-2022 02:30 PM)Huan Wrote:  perhaps leaked by SDSU to nudge the B12?

https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/statu...wJPNqt_ftg

Quote:Nicole Auerbach
@NicoleAuerbach
·
2h
Re: the report about the Pac-12 announcing the addition of SDSU as soon as this week, a source close to the situation tells @TheAthletic that the report is inaccurate.

It's been my understanding that the Pac-12 will do its media deal first before any conference expansion.

No. It would hurt them rather than help them. SDSU is saying the same thing, that Patrick's report is not "accurate."

(11-07-2022 01:38 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 01:26 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 12:47 PM)KnightLife Wrote:  If I'm Mike Aresco,and AAC, I would have my phone ready to call right away aggressively trying to scoop up Air Force and Colorado State.

So they can play Charlotte, Rice and FAU?

If the AAC were willing to offer not only Air Force and Colorado State but also Wyoming and New Mexico, I think the likelihood of success would be considerably higher (assuming the MWC had already lost SDSU and one other western division member to the Pac).

So an 18-team league stretching from Florida to Philly to Wyoming...hmmm

(11-07-2022 03:15 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 01:38 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 01:26 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 12:47 PM)KnightLife Wrote:  If I'm Mike Aresco,and AAC, I would have my phone ready to call right away aggressively trying to scoop up Air Force and Colorado State.

So they can play Charlotte, Rice and FAU?

If the AAC were willing to offer not only Air Force and Colorado State but also Wyoming and New Mexico, I think the likelihood of success would be considerably higher (assuming the MWC had already lost SDSU and one other western division member to the Pac).

So an 18-team league stretching from Florida to Philly to Wyoming...hmmm

Yeah, I would have said that's nuts until a few months ago. But it would still be just a three time zone G5 conference in a world that's apparently no longer ruling out four time zone P5 conferences.

(11-07-2022 03:22 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 03:15 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 01:38 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 01:26 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 12:47 PM)KnightLife Wrote:  If I'm Mike Aresco,and AAC, I would have my phone ready to call right away aggressively trying to scoop up Air Force and Colorado State.

So they can play Charlotte, Rice and FAU?

If the AAC were willing to offer not only Air Force and Colorado State but also Wyoming and New Mexico, I think the likelihood of success would be considerably higher (assuming the MWC had already lost SDSU and one other western division member to the Pac).

So an 18-team league stretching from Florida to Philly to Wyoming...hmmm

Yeah, I would have said that's nuts until a few months ago. But it would still be just a three time zone G5 conference in a world that's apparently no longer ruling out four time zone P5 conferences.

The main attraction of the AAC for any of the MWC teams left behind (should SDSU move) is this: getting into Texas and the addition of Eastern Time Zone slots.

Colorado State and AFA in particular were interested in the American for this very reason, specifically so they could get into TX. Now that UNT, UTSA and Rice have been added, they should be even more inclined to consider the offer.

It's also my understanding that they both wanted to bring Wyoming along for the ride. This makes sense as Laramie is only an hour or so from both schools and they have been long-term rivals.

The American could add CSU, Wyoming an AFA and then go after Boise State, Fresno State and one other (depending on who else is left over) to get to 20 teams in 4 time zones. In theory, our TV deal could increase as well with such a deal. It would also enhance our league's chances of securing the playoff spot each year.

Even if the TV deal stayed the same on a per-school basis it would make sense to go to 20 (or even 21). The playoff spot is that important, in my opinion.

(11-07-2022 12:58 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-07-2022 11:14 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I still think that if the PAC couldn’t extract a Big XII school out of this, you can start counting the days until the next PAC school announces it’s leaving the conference. And it’s not like SDSU is slumming it, because we know that move maybe should have been made a long time ago (and probably has the two UC schools to blame for it not happening), but, with that name cache and group of schools, which is still high quality, how is the best thing the PAC can get is from the AAC or MWC, and not a Big XII who did their own raid of AAC?

How many times do we need to go over this.

big 12: 80m exit fee, strong stability
pac: no exit fee, 2/3 of the conference has wandering eyes

The Pac might eventually be a potentially big 12 poacher, but not this cycle. If any poaching from p5 conferences happens this cycle then it's pac schools leaving for another conference.

I'm pretty sure the way it works is "if we make it to the end of the current deal without another place to go, we're in for the next cycle." Those schools in the Big XII that could go anywhere (and this doesn't just include the PAC, it could still be the B1G, SEC, or ACC) can still avoid the next cycle.

I mean, yikes, how bad of a job would a college president be if they just committed to the Big XII when they could have had a Big Ten or SEC spot, or any place where the money could be better, after the end of the current deal/GoR?

I will admit that I think the PAC is really all that bad at the negotiating table at this point (and my eyes are on Stanford and Cal for that). That's the real point I'm making here. That even if it did get to this point where a Big XII school couldn't go for another cycle...the PAC is pathetic.

(11-07-2022 02:22 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  *IF* it's true and Patrick isn't as wrong on this as his sources have been on some other things, then it's probably just San Diego State. Gonzaga has a the best chance of anyone to be a 12th. If it has to be football, it's hard to see anyone other than SMU.

Personally I don't think they'll add anyone. Ten schools allows a complete round robin. Adding SDSU almost calls for dropping to 8 games (44 conference football games, versus 45 with 10 schools; but likely gives you around 27-28 OOC games versus about 18-20 now). It does up the basketball inventory dramatically (110 conference games verses 90 with 10 schools). Adding a 12th school definitely lowers the per school payouts. The Big 12 kind of trapped the Pac-12 into having to at least match $31.7M per school. SDSU would require a $350M deal, adding a 12th would require over $380M.

ESPN is the decider on this. Hard to see them throw an extra $65M to the Pac-12 simply for two G5 schools.

DP should have just said that SDSU is coming to the Pac-12 and the announcement will occur sometime in the next few weeks or sometime in the near future. This week is too soon.

The Pac-12 is talking about moving to an eight game conference schedule as soon as 2024. They may decide to stick with 11 for football, at least for now. I think they add SDSU and Gonzaga as a 12th school for Oympic sports. Gonzaga's Olympic sports fit well with the Pac-12.

Not all G5 schools are alike. San Diego State is clearly among the top G5 programs available and the top athletic program in the MWC. Gonzaga is among the top basketball programs today and has a good Olympic sports athletic program. ESPN is not going to have a problem with SDSU and obviously, Gonzaga is acceptable to ESPN.