(09-04-2022 08:36 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-04-2022 07:44 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(09-04-2022 07:37 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I think it is interesting that we can't come to a consensus on the OP. Seems like it SHOULD nudge realignment one way or the other.

Well, I still say that Friday's announcement CHANGED a lot less than it REVEALED. The people making these decisions knew that 6+6 was very probable all along. Us looking and interpreting from a distance were often speculating much more widely, (and some of us still are--you see posts "this means that the Big Ten and SEC want 6+6 for 2024 and 2025, but who knows what will happen in 2026?" as if they didn't just say what's going to happen in 2026)

It revealed that the Big Ten and SEC are not working on a breakaway in any relevant time frame--2026 plus 4? 6? Maybe 10? 12? years.

Jumping from the PAC to the Big 12 is a little less attractive--easier to fight your way through 10 than 16 to grab a semi-automatic bid to a playoff spot. But the big threat to the PAC was the Big 10, and it still is. If the Big 10 collapses the PAC, you'll have 2 G5 conferences in the playoff every year, which will irritate the SEC, but that's not going to stop anything.

This is literally the same playoff structure that was officially proposed a year ago.

My reading of the tea leaves suggests that neither the B1G nor SEC necessarily want to leave the rest of FBS behind, but neither do we want to be thwarted at every turn by g5 conferences, or even M3. The only reason that there wasn't more squawking from Birmingham last year when the 6+6 plan was nixed was that we all knew that it was really organized by the B1G. And they have earned the right to make their wishes known in these sorts of proceedings. There's not much we can do to them other than grumble under our collective breath about taking our 16 team football and finding our own playground, which, to me at least, seems like more of a last resort rather than something we're excited to try out.

The real danger for the smaller schools, and perhaps even M3, will be once we start discussing the new CFP in earnest. No need for unanimity, just a majority, and the SEC and B1G look to largely have our interests aligned. And if the P2 reach an understanding, then everyone else will either have to fall in line or risk being left behind because nothing gets a duopoly worked up like little guys forgetting their place in the pecking order.

"Thwarted at every turn by G5" ? D2 and D3 (and some D1 non-FB) are the groups that have been dragging their feet and voting down proposals by the power schools for years.

This is why we have a D1 Transformation Committee and new Governance separation in NCAA Divisions.

There has been little resistance from G5-- we have next to zero political power.

AND without M3 and even some G5---- WHO are you going to schedule for games??

(09-04-2022 10:07 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  

(09-04-2022 08:36 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-04-2022 07:44 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(09-04-2022 07:37 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  I think it is interesting that we can't come to a consensus on the OP. Seems like it SHOULD nudge realignment one way or the other.

Well, I still say that Friday's announcement CHANGED a lot less than it REVEALED. The people making these decisions knew that 6+6 was very probable all along. Us looking and interpreting from a distance were often speculating much more widely, (and some of us still are--you see posts "this means that the Big Ten and SEC want 6+6 for 2024 and 2025, but who knows what will happen in 2026?" as if they didn't just say what's going to happen in 2026)

It revealed that the Big Ten and SEC are not working on a breakaway in any relevant time frame--2026 plus 4? 6? Maybe 10? 12? years.

Jumping from the PAC to the Big 12 is a little less attractive--easier to fight your way through 10 than 16 to grab a semi-automatic bid to a playoff spot. But the big threat to the PAC was the Big 10, and it still is. If the Big 10 collapses the PAC, you'll have 2 G5 conferences in the playoff every year, which will irritate the SEC, but that's not going to stop anything.

This is literally the same playoff structure that was officially proposed a year ago.

My reading of the tea leaves suggests that neither the B1G nor SEC necessarily want to leave the rest of FBS behind, but neither do we want to be thwarted at every turn by g5 conferences, or even M3. The only reason that there wasn't more squawking from Birmingham last year when the 6+6 plan was nixed was that we all knew that it was really organized by the B1G. And they have earned the right to make their wishes known in these sorts of proceedings. There's not much we can do to them other than grumble under our collective breath about taking our 16 team football and finding our own playground, which, to me at least, seems like more of a last resort rather than something we're excited to try out.

The real danger for the smaller schools, and perhaps even M3, will be once we start discussing the new CFP in earnest. No need for unanimity, just a majority, and the SEC and B1G look to largely have our interests aligned. And if the P2 reach an understanding, then everyone else will either have to fall in line or risk being left behind because nothing gets a duopoly worked up like little guys forgetting their place in the pecking order.

"Thwarted at every turn by G5" ? D2 and D3 (and some D1 non-FB) are the groups that have been dragging their feet and voting down proposals by the power schools for years.

This is why we have a D1 Transformation Committee and new Governance separation in NCAA Divisions.

There has been little resistance from G5-- we have next to zero political power.

AND without M3 and even some G5---- WHO are you going to schedule for games??

Yes. The only thing the G5 have fought is things like attendance requirements to push them down. The difficulties are with Div. 2, Div. 3 and lower level Division I schools, not other FBS.

To the OP. No, an expanded CFP will not end realignment, but it will slow it down.

The financial gap to the B1G and SEC has increased substantially over the last ten years and is set to increase even more with the Pac-12 and Big 12 contracts expected to come in essentially flat on per school dividends while the B1G and SEC more than double that and soon will almost triple that. This will still draw schools upon availability (i.e., when their GORs end) to wan to move to those conferences.

What has changed is the urgency. The need to finish the P2 is not so front and center. This allows the SEC and B1G to digest what they have for a few years before deciding whether to consume more. And when they do likely fewer.

The expansion means football programs can exists outside the P2 and make the Playoff. That reduces pressure, but doesn't eliminate the massive financial incentive to change conferences.

(09-04-2022 07:53 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(09-04-2022 07:22 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(09-04-2022 07:15 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-04-2022 08:50 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(09-04-2022 08:16 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  Washington and Oregon could decide winning the PAC 10 is a lot easier than winning an 18 member Big Ten and stay where they are.

No one has ever though that way in the modern history of conference realignment.

Exhibit A is Oklahoma and Texas moving to the SEC. From a maximizing playoff berth standpoint, that didn’t make sense at all (particularly for OU). From a money standpoint, it made all the sense in the world… and that’s all that matters.

If Washington and Oregon get Big Ten invites, then they’re going. If *anyone* that’s not already in the B1G/SEC gets an invite from the Big Ten or SEC outside of Notre Dave, then they’re going.

The question has absolutely zero to do with the choices of Washington and Oregon. This is completely the Big Ten’s decision.

Forida State still thought that a few years ago when they decided to remain in the ACC. But, sure, with the huge increase in Conference payouts recently it's seems pretty unlikely that a school gives up a P2 spot in hopes of making the playoff a few more times.

ACC to Big 12 would have been a lateral move, not a step up.

Regardless what WVU expansionistas tweet. FSU was never close to leaving The ACC for The Big 12.

The ACC GOR was signed and completed well before 4/15/13.

The ACC had planned to release news of the GOR being signed on 4/15/13. The conference decided to hold the news a week because of the Boston Marathon bombing happened on 4/15/13.

The week The ACC was waiting to announce the GOR, The Dude and McHver claimed Florida State and Clemson were leaving The ACC for The Big 12.

After The ACC announced its GOR it proved they were full of sh!t.

As far as rumors of FSU to the Big XII, what I thought had happened was that an FSU BMD misunderstood the new contract the ACC was signing and thought moving to the Big XII would be better for FSU; then the President or chairman of the BOR (or whatever is their governing body) explained things to the BMD, whereupon he shut up. My understanding at the time was that he first made his complaints known to someone at the XII before finding out that the new contract was not what he thought it was, and that that's why we were seeing crawlers of FSU (and Clemson?) to the Big XII.

ACC fans: do I remember correctly, or no? I've thought all this time, the rumors came from a misunderstanding.

I can remember the WAC was more or less considered a big boy FB conference along with other defunct FB conferences like the SWC and BE.

Then the BCS came around and the WAC was folded into a second tier conference. This is the way its feeling to be me with the PAC/ACC/XII. Look at Oregon's G5 level performance against Georgia and Virginia Tech losing to ODU was no good as they are like the 10th best team in the SBC.

P2 membership is vital for the candidates that have been talked about. For the others they are stuck in the second tier.

SMU move to the PAC would be like TCU's move to the MWC a decade ago. More money and a few Top 25 games to prove worth but not true elite affiliation.

The "club" that some talk about of 60-70 teams traditionally considered major is breaking down over the P2 super conferences and NIL which only the bluebloods can be serious players in. Once the P2 expands it will end up around 44-48 and leave quite a few behind I am afraid.

Realignment is not done because streaming is not a mature delivery system yet.

(09-04-2022 09:11 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  P5 - G5
now it's P2 - M3 - G3 - no shot 2
soon to be P2 - M1 - no shot 3

I think it may end up closer to:

P2
M2
G4 - & maybe have those 4 champs have a play in round for the 5th & 6th conference champ spots.

The School presidents know you have to at least give the pretense everyone is included. Remember the conference commissioners can only do what the Presidents allow them to do.

Elsewhere, JR suggested that the SEC's two preferred targets are Florida State and UNC, but that the Heels wouldn't leave a stable ACC. So, here's a possible short term (by 2024) realignment scenario.

With their media deal in place, the B1G adds Oregon and Washington and stops at 18 members. With ESPN's help, the SEC takes Florida State and Kansas, also stopping at 18. ESPN's "help" consists of facilitating the move of West Virginia, Cincinnati and UCF to the ACC, paying all 16 ACC members $5 million a year more than the current ACC deal calls for.

Now, down to 8 members, the Big 12 inks with ESPN in a deal that takes all 8 remaining PAC schools as a western division at something in the $30 million a year range.

All 69 P5 schools have a P4 home (ND stays independent), nobody pays exit fees, and this is what FBS looks like in 2024.


.....................Average.....10 year
Conf...Teams..Attendance...MSR (mean Sagarin rating)

SEC......18........74K...........80
B1G......18........64K...........77
B12.......16.......46K...........76
ACC.......16.......46K...........74
ND.........1........78K...........84

MWC.....12........24K...........64
AAC.......14.......25K...........61
MAC......12........15K..........60
SBC.......14.......19K..........59
USA........9........16K..........58
IND........3.........22K..........54