Yes.

Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State would leave for the Big 12.

The remaining five Pac-12 members — Stanford, Cal, Utah, OSU and WSU — would stick together and add the following seven R1 research schools to form an academically elite 12-member conference with 9 football-playing members:

Hawaii
Nevada
UNLV
UC Davis (moves football from FCS up to FBS)
UC Santa Barbara
UC Irvine
UC San Diego

…

Oh wait. That’s not what I THINK will happen. That’s what I WANT to happen. Never mind!

To the OP, no the Pac-12 doesn't survive.

Basically losing Washington and Oregon would halt media negotiations, with all offers withdrawn. Inventory shortage means there is nothing to negotiate until expansion is done. And even when that happens, the Pac-12 will be looking at media contracts in the $15-20M range per school, rather than $32.4M per school it's said to be looking at now.

There is no way the four corner schools of Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado stay attached knowing that. Cal and Stanford would almost certainly come too, although Stanford might well require special language in their contract to be able to opt out in the first five years. Simply put their is no reason to remain in the Pac-12 for the four corner schools, who have made it clear that Washington and Oregon are the linchpins for their continued membership.

I know scenarios are thrown out about the Pac-12 rebuilding with Wazzu, Oregon State and maybe Cal by inviting a bunch of MWC schools. But the Pac-12 will have no money, no war chest, only a good pile of NCAA basketball credits. But those credits belong to the existing members and are not distributed to new members, who start over at zero, losing their MWC credits. Also they will have to pay a hefty $33M exit fee to join the Pac-12 in 2024 (under two years now, so penalty kicks in). But this to a conference that has no TV contract. For this reason I think it's more likely WSU and OSU split the credits between themselves, dissolve the Pac-12 and join the MWC. There is no exit fee from the Pac-12 and they can take the MBB credits with them.

So if UW and UO leave then Pac-12 will dissolve.

If you are Arizona and:

1. You hear that Washington and Oregon attorneys are meeting with Big 10 attorneys,
2. After reading that the Big 10 TV contract contains clauses for expansion and hearing Commissioner Warren say they are not done, and
2. The Big 12 gets a mulit-network TV offer (Fox/ESPN) that is 10-25% richer per year than the recent ESPN Pac 12 offer where Fox refused to bid...

Do you forge ahead and sign a new GOR with the Pac 12, voting to expand with MWC schools in the process?

Or do you take the money and stability of the Big 12?

In other words, I am not sure OU and Wash are the next to leave. And therefore the OP's question may not be how it plays out. Rather, the next movement could be one or more Four Corner schools ejecting. Which, quite frankly, the Big 10 would welcome from both a PR perspective and a bargaining power perspective with Oregon, Wash, Cal & Stanford.

(09-02-2022 01:44 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  To the OP, no the Pac-12 doesn't survive.

Basically losing Washington and Oregon would halt media negotiations, with all offers withdrawn. Inventory shortage means there is nothing to negotiate until expansion is done. And even when that happens, the Pac-12 will be looking at media contracts in the $15-20M range per school, rather than $32.4M per school it's said to be looking at now.

There is no way the four corner schools of Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado stay attached knowing that. Cal and Stanford would almost certainly come too, although Stanford might well require special language in their contract to be able to opt out in the first five years. Simply put their is no reason to remain in the Pac-12 for the four corner schools, who have made it clear that Washington and Oregon are the linchpins for their continued membership.

I know scenarios are thrown out about the Pac-12 rebuilding with Wazzu, Oregon State and maybe Cal by inviting a bunch of MWC schools. But the Pac-12 will have no money, no war chest, only a good pile of NCAA basketball credits. But those credits belong to the existing members and are not distributed to new members, who start over at zero, losing their MWC credits. Also they will have to pay a hefty $33M exit fee to join the Pac-12 in 2024 (under two years now, so penalty kicks in). But this to a conference that has no TV contract. For this reason I think it's more likely WSU and OSU split the credits between themselves, dissolve the Pac-12 and join the MWC. There is no exit fee from the Pac-12 and they can take the MBB credits with them.

So if UW and UO leave then Pac-12 will dissolve.

Even Wilner has pretty much acknowledged the Pac dies if 2 more schools leave. That's why he's so desperate to find evidence that the Big 10 is done.
There's nobody in the MWC that the Big 12 would be particularly interested in, so why would the Pac rebuild with them? If somehow they just lost 1, maybe they add SDSU. But with two, they all look for an exit.

(09-02-2022 01:40 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Yes.

Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State would leave for the Big 12.

The remaining five Pac-12 members — Stanford, Cal, Utah, OSU and WSU — would stick together and add the following seven R1 research schools to form an academically elite 12-member conference with 9 football-playing members:

Hawaii
Nevada
UNLV
UC Davis (moves football from FCS up to FBS)
UC Santa Barbara
UC Irvine
UC San Diego

…

Oh wait. That’s not what I THINK will happen. That’s what I WANT to happen. Never mind!

I'd sign up for that new conference every day. Olympic sports would be solid and there's just enough to be a multibid hoops league.

One question - what would that conference map look like?

(09-02-2022 09:50 AM)ken d Wrote:  Then they are down to 8, but they are still in the Bay area. Is that enough to hold on to the Four Corners, or would that move by the B1G be the coup de grace?

Would the Big 12 take Stanford and Cal, and would they go if asked?

Could the PAC 8 attract enough Big 12 teams to defect to stay viable?

Could the PAC 8 stay viable by taking BYU and three MWC schools?

Would there be enough votes among the remaining 8 to invite BYU over the objections of Cal and Stanford?

So many questions.

Any combination of WA and any other school ends the PAC.

Losing USC, UCLA, WA, plus any 1 other school, ends any chance of a media deal anywhere near what it was.

The PAC may continue on in name only, but it will be joining the likes of conferences like c-usa and aac.

As for the rest, once the mass exodus begins, the b10 will take what they want (if anything), and the rest will be out there looking for new homes.

oPac12:
Stanford
California
Oregon State
Washington State
Utah
+/- Arizona State
likely - Colorado

additions:
SMU
Rice
Tulane
+/- SDSU

total members 8-10
media deal $15M per

If it happens, the PAC survives best as the western division of the Big XII. Maybe we create a shell legal entity "League" above both so that two CFP autobids are maintained.

(09-02-2022 09:50 AM)ken d Wrote:  Then they are down to 8, but they are still in the Bay area. Is that enough to hold on to the Four Corners, or would that move by the B1G be the coup de grace?

Would the Big 12 take Stanford and Cal, and would they go if asked?

Could the PAC 8 attract enough Big 12 teams to defect to stay viable?

Could the PAC 8 stay viable by taking BYU and three MWC schools?

Would there be enough votes among the remaining 8 to invite BYU over the objections of Cal and Stanford?

So many questions.

No. I think if you even lose one of the two, it’s dead in the water

The PAC will survive because the CFP just went to 12 with 6+6 format

If only those two leave I think it survives. They will poach the MWC to get back up to 12.

(09-02-2022 09:54 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  If Oregon/Washington leave I would expect the four corners school to go to the B12. The remaining 4 in the PAC will keep the name and structure and rebuild with their choices from the MWC. Whether 6,8, or more I do not know.

Agree