When the SEC and Big Ten are stacked with many good programs, consider thinking about the conferences like NFL conferences. In the NFL, a 7-9 team who wins their division can make the playoff. I am not suggesting that teams with losing records will make the playoff. I mean that teams with multiple losses may have a chance to compete in the playoff.

Get ready for Wildcard playoffs where 7-5 Texas takes on 8-4 Michigan.

(09-01-2022 11:06 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The flip side is to look at the ratings of the NFL.

Someone wise in the media industry told me that the value of the NFL wasn't who makes the playoff itself, but rather the playoff *hunt*. If your *own* team is in the playoff hunt, then that creates an entirely different level of passion and interest compared to a casual fan where you're watching both your own team's games and everyone else's games more. When there are more teams in the playoff hunt, that interest just multiples over and over into a juggernaut.

Now, to be sure, the NFL has the perfect balance. Every game is quite important in the playoff race, but a September/October loss also isn't completely fatal that entire swaths of the sport are totally eliminated by midway through the season, either.

When college football fans talk about the importance of the regular season, they're generally talking about maybe 1 or 2 games per week that have gargantuan and massive stakes to the playoff race. However, that also means that 60-plus other games per week have *zero* stakes for the CFP.

In the NFL, there generally isn't going to be any gargantuan/massive stakes life-or-death regular season game until near the end of the year. However, the NFL does offer a *lot* of games with *some* playoff stakes involved for one or both teams every single week, so the interest is broadened much more beyond one or two games per week.

What the NFL has that college football does not, though, is parity. In my 44 years there have been three winless NFL teams and one team to make it through the regular season undefeated.

Any Given Sunday has a true meaning, because all of the teams are bound by the owners and union that want (and need) competitive balance. As an immediate example: out of 16 games to kick off this season, there is not a single double-digit spread.

That's not going to happen in college football, so that comparison is tough. Once conference play starts, there are usually three or four games across the college football slate that have national implications between evenly-matched teams.

With all of this said, I could definitely be wrong: the compelling wisdom in the NCAA before 1984 was that televising too many games would hurt attendance and therefore cost money in the long run. The same was true in the English Premier League before 1992. Maybe more people will watch Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State if that result impacts Iowa's and BYU's chances of making the playoff. And maybe those increased ratings will more than offset the reduced value in Alabama vs. LSU in October. I just don't see it panning out that way.

(09-01-2022 09:31 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  I still think 12 teams is way too many. Alabama or Ohio State would have to lose three regular season games to not get a bid. At that point the regular season becomes akin to college basketball's regular season.

Six teams, with the top four conference winners plus two wildcards is the way to go. That keeps every regular season game meaning something while still giving access to every deserving program.

10-2 or 11-2 is a pretty good season.

And about half the time since the start of the BCS era, a 2 loss power conference team would be left out.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see the heavyweights push top 4 champs + 8 at-large at this juncture.

(09-01-2022 09:58 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  

(09-01-2022 09:43 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 11:02 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 10:59 PM)TTT Wrote:  Assuming a 12-team format is introduced...what is the general consensus for that 12 team playoff model?

Top 12 ranked teams period?
10 + 2? (Each conference champ + 2 highest ranked at large)
5 + 7? (Each P5 champ + 7 highest ranked at large)
Other?

I think the most likely is that inertia causes the 6+6 to be used, even with the loss of power of the PAC and Big 12.

This is the way. Everyone has a reason to vote for it, and everyone should have the first time.

A 6 + 6 format is really short-sighted. A network will pay a ton of money to get those rights, but the games will suck. Last season's slate of games looks like this in the first weekend:

Pitt @Notre Dame
Utah @ Ohio State
Michigan State @ Baylor
Oklahoma State @ Ole Miss

All of those teams are just waiting to be totally dismantled in the next round by Michigan, Alabama, and Georgia. The quarterfinal with Cincinnati would be the only game that wouldn't be a double-digit spread.

Meanwhile (and why I believe a 12 team playoff is so short-sighted) the regular season games that are giving the P2 these absurd contracts are losing most of their value. Who cares if Alabama loses to Auburn in a four-overtime classic? Bama still makes it to the playoff and just has to beat Utah or Pitt to make the quarterfinals.

College football has the best regular season of any American sport. Increasing the number of teams in a playoff will really hurt regular season ratings and kill those huge contracts in the next round of negotiations.

This is especially hurtful to the SEC and Big Ten, since they have to share the playoff revenue with other leagues while they can keep the spoils of their regular season.

A few things on this:

1) The hypothetical first round games are already happening. They just happen to not advance and because of that a bunch of players are sitting out. The question on the table is whether those bowls should be meaningful. When you get to the top 2, those teams seem to be demolishing 3 and 4 now anyway.

2) NFL comparison again. A third of the teams make the playoffs, may more than the proposed college format. Games that include teams that have already clinched the playoffs are still interesting because they often a) can potentially knock the opposing team out of contention, and b) can still factor into seeding. Is a team playing for a home game in the first round? Are they in play for a bye? This is also why the NFL still does AQ for division champs. It keeps those games interesting down to the last week.

3) You're talking about it "ruining" the regular season, but really it only (maybe) makes the regular season slightly less interesting for about 2-3 teams. The other side of the coin is that it makes the regular season WAY more interesting for WAY more teams that will now still be in the hunt in week 11,12,13 instead of "out of the playoff so who cares".

The goal is to keep the highest amount of people engaged for the longest amount of time. The NFL knows this, and their format is dialed in to reflect that. Does that mean that #12 is going to be better than #3, probably not. But #12's fans are now watching instead of tuning out 2 weeks before the end of the glorious regular season.