(08-31-2022 09:59 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 09:45 AM)Boots Wrote:  I feel this is B12 reaction to not hearing numbers they like. Maybe PAC getting more money than they thought? So they feel the need to get in negotiations now or they may miss an opportunity.

ESPN has a lot of incentive to keep the PAC together (keep Oregon, WA, etc from going to FOX and they get the late night games which ESPN needs).

If B12 was confident in what they had, they would just wait till 2024.

Interesting stuff...

The opposite.

Could be. But if B12 knew they are going to get a better contract and felt confident in it....than just wait. Why rush it...

(08-31-2022 09:56 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 09:45 AM)Boots Wrote:  I feel this is B12 reaction to not hearing numbers they like. Maybe PAC getting more money than they thought? So they feel the need to get in negotiations now or they may miss an opportunity.

ESPN has a lot of incentive to keep the PAC together (keep Oregon, WA, etc from going to FOX and they get the late night games which ESPN needs).

If B12 was confident in what they had, they would just wait till 2024.

Interesting stuff...

Yomark said that the Big 12 will be proactive. Right now there is the opportunity for the Big 12 to consider proactive moves. Waiting around until 2024 is the exact opposite.

ESPN has incentive to help the Big 12 add a couple more western schools to get late-night games without having to pay $250-300M for the entire PAC 10 conference. A moderately expanded Big 12 gives both ESPN and FOX solid games to fill in the holes for the entire Saturday schedule, along with weeknight games.

Paired with BYU there is an argument for that in that "can I pay less overall for one and fill my time slots than paying two?" and "can I keep them from my competitor?".

The counterarguments come from "what if my competitor gets them?" and "will I end up paying more than I would if the two were kept apart?".

Without hard #'s it's hard to know the answers.

I do think they'd get more value from the top Pac schools playing in a more national footprint as more out of region fans would have direct interest and time zones have been the issue for them over a long period of time. That said how much is that increased value worth relative to payouts needed to move them?

(08-31-2022 10:02 AM)Boots Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 09:59 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 09:45 AM)Boots Wrote:  I feel this is B12 reaction to not hearing numbers they like. Maybe PAC getting more money than they thought? So they feel the need to get in negotiations now or they may miss an opportunity.

ESPN has a lot of incentive to keep the PAC together (keep Oregon, WA, etc from going to FOX and they get the late night games which ESPN needs).

If B12 was confident in what they had, they would just wait till 2024.

Interesting stuff...

The opposite.

Could be. But if B12 knew they are going to get a better contract and felt confident in it....than just wait. Why rush it...

to add pac12 teams, possibly a year early in 24 before the big12 contract runs out in 25

(08-31-2022 10:02 AM)Boots Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 09:59 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 09:45 AM)Boots Wrote:  I feel this is B12 reaction to not hearing numbers they like. Maybe PAC getting more money than they thought? So they feel the need to get in negotiations now or they may miss an opportunity.

ESPN has a lot of incentive to keep the PAC together (keep Oregon, WA, etc from going to FOX and they get the late night games which ESPN needs).

If B12 was confident in what they had, they would just wait till 2024.

Interesting stuff...

The opposite.

Could be. But if B12 knew they are going to get a better contract and felt confident in it....than just wait. Why rush it...

Easily can think of several possible reasons.

1- Capture the contract before favorable time slots get signed away to the PAC.
2- Capitalize on the market as it is today before potential corporate interests might have a different environment two years from now.
3- Provide hard numbers to potentially expand. Alleviates risk for the departing schools.
4- Capitalize on ESPN's desire to get Texas and OU into the SEC early and how much they'd be willing to pay to get earlier returns on them.

Plenty of reasons can be thought up that make sense. However time will tell what shakes out of all this.

(08-31-2022 09:59 AM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Yep, when the conference realignment dust settles, I could see an athletic budgets/conference multimedia rights of three tiers as follows:

B1G/SEC
Big 12

AAC/Pac-12 (MWC consolidation)

MAC/SBC
C-USA

Judy survives. Phillips and Hair do not.

What a world!

Also: Looking forward to seeing what Mikey Aresco has up his sleeve now that his conference has moved up a notch or two from P6

Charlotte
East Carolina
FAU
North Texas
Rice
Temple
Tulsa
UTSA

Who can Aresco reel in from the Sun Belt or C-DOA?

Anyone else feel like this is a bit orchestrated? The B1G doesn't want to be known as the conference that killed the PAC. The Big 12 goes first and bring in the four corner schools. The B1G "offers" a lifeboat to the Cal, Stanford, WA and Oregon but at a reduced rate since they "just finished up their new contract."

(08-31-2022 10:04 AM)Huan Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 10:02 AM)Boots Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 09:59 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 09:45 AM)Boots Wrote:  I feel this is B12 reaction to not hearing numbers they like. Maybe PAC getting more money than they thought? So they feel the need to get in negotiations now or they may miss an opportunity.

ESPN has a lot of incentive to keep the PAC together (keep Oregon, WA, etc from going to FOX and they get the late night games which ESPN needs).

If B12 was confident in what they had, they would just wait till 2024.

Interesting stuff...

The opposite.

Could be. But if B12 knew they are going to get a better contract and felt confident in it....than just wait. Why rush it...

to add pac12 teams, possibly a year early in 24 before the big12 contract runs out in 25

I understand that...I just don't think the B12 would need to make a big media splash of "we are negotiating early" to get those numbers.

FOX and ESPN know that what they are willing to pay. They say hey.....with these teams we pay you this? With these other teams added we will pay you in this range?

So the big media push from Big 12....makes it peculiar.

Interesting development. This should clear up for everyone where they stand and the direction the networks and conferences want to go. This will give all of the PAC and BigXII schools a clear understanding of what their value is, Value in the BigXII, value in the PAC, value in an expanded PAC, value in an expanded BigXII, and possibly your expected payout % if joining the B1G.

God forbid this ends up in a higher Pay-out for all PAC and BigXII schools than they are receiving in the ACC. I know people hold strong on that ACC GOR and for good reason, but a development where the two wounded conferences end up getting pay bumps above the ACC who still has all it's members would result in Lawyers and Chaos.

IMO the most likely outcome is both conferences end up being offered similar money that's just a hair below the ACC payout. This will result in little to no movement between the conferences and would give the B1G the opportunity to add 2-4 PAC schools at the lowest payout possible if they want. B1G 18-20, PAC at 10-12, BigXII stays at 12, ACC stays at 14 + ND and we enter a protracted realignment period where their is very little movement before we hit the 2030's.

Beware of the chaos coming sooner than the 2030's, although I'm guessing for smaller TV contracts that lead to an uneasy stabilization, I could absolutely see it going the other way. I'm 55/45 right now LOL

(08-31-2022 10:07 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  Easily can think of several possible reasons.

1- Capture the contract before favorable time slots get signed away to the PAC.
2- Capitalize on the market as it is today before potential corporate interests might have a different environment two years from now.
3- Provide hard numbers to potentially expand. Alleviates risk for the departing schools.
4- Capitalize on ESPN's desire to get Texas and OU into the SEC early and how much they'd be willing to pay to get earlier returns on them.

Plenty of reasons can be thought up that make sense. However time will tell what shakes out of all this.

For the board: Will ESPN participate in all of this (and it may well), but not address the growing income, exposure and status deficit facing its partner ACC institutions?

(08-31-2022 09:45 AM)Boots Wrote:  I feel this is B12 reaction to not hearing numbers they like. Maybe PAC getting more money than they thought? So they feel the need to get in negotiations now or they may miss an opportunity.

ESPN has a lot of incentive to keep the PAC together (keep Oregon, WA, etc from going to FOX and they get the late night games which ESPN needs).

If B12 was confident in what they had, they would just wait till 2024.

Interesting stuff...

ESPN and FOX are talking to the Big 12, as someone stated earlier, take that in, a very different set up than when the PAC chose to open talks with a single entity.

The reality, ESPN can put MWC games on late night they don't need the PAC. This negotiation will include expansion add-ons in the deal. Expect this to look a lot like the B1G deal on a much smaller scale with future dollars tacked on based on future expansion. This is a no lose issue for the Big12. They are stable, the PAC is not. Waiting till 2024 opens the door for a stable PAC competing on a level playing field. The intent of the Big12 is to see if they can end the PAC leaving only the ACC as competition for a possible P3 spot if it is available, or P4 with the ACC, pushing out the PAC.

(08-31-2022 10:12 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 10:07 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  Easily can think of several possible reasons.

1- Capture the contract before favorable time slots get signed away to the PAC.
2- Capitalize on the market as it is today before potential corporate interests might have a different environment two years from now.
3- Provide hard numbers to potentially expand. Alleviates risk for the departing schools.
4- Capitalize on ESPN's desire to get Texas and OU into the SEC early and how much they'd be willing to pay to get earlier returns on them.

Plenty of reasons can be thought up that make sense. However time will tell what shakes out of all this.

For the board: Will ESPN participate in all of this (and it may well), but not address the growing income, exposure and status deficit facing its partner ACC institutions?

Unless someone can break a GOR what leverage forces them to do so now instead of a few years from now?

Andrew Marchand checks in:

https://twitter.com/AndrewMarchand/statu...mh8rcrAAAA

It will be interesting to hear what Marchand and John Ourand have to say about this development, which I'm quite sure will be addressed on a future podcast.

(08-31-2022 10:11 AM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Interesting development. This should clear up for everyone where they stand and the direction the networks and conferences want to go. This will give all of the PAC and BigXII schools a clear understanding of what their value is, Value in the BigXII, value in the PAC, value in an expanded PAC, value in an expanded BigXII, and possibly your expected payout % if joining the B1G.

God forbid this ends up in a higher Pay-out for all PAC and BigXII schools than they are receiving in the ACC. I know people hold strong on that ACC GOR and for good reason, but a development where the two wounded conferences end up getting pay bumps above the ACC who still has all it's members would result in Lawyers and Chaos.

IMO the most likely outcome is both conferences end up being offered similar money that's just a hair below the ACC payout. This will result in little to no movement between the conferences and would give the B1G the opportunity to add 2-4 PAC schools at the lowest payout possible if they want. B1G 18-20, PAC at 10-12, BigXII stays at 12, ACC stays at 14 + ND and we enter a protracted realignment period where their is very little movement before we hit the 2030's.

Beware of the chaos coming sooner than the 2030's, although I'm guessing for smaller TV contracts that lead to an uneasy stabilization, I could absolutely see it going the other way. I'm 55/45 right now LOL

The ACC wouldn't have any argument to fight in court.

"We aren't getting paid as much!".

"Did you sign willingly & freely?"

"Yes"

"Is this a predatory contract & can you prove it?"

"No"

"Case dismissed"

(08-31-2022 10:02 AM)Boots Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 09:59 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 09:45 AM)Boots Wrote:  I feel this is B12 reaction to not hearing numbers they like. Maybe PAC getting more money than they thought? So they feel the need to get in negotiations now or they may miss an opportunity.

ESPN has a lot of incentive to keep the PAC together (keep Oregon, WA, etc from going to FOX and they get the late night games which ESPN needs).

If B12 was confident in what they had, they would just wait till 2024.

Interesting stuff...

The opposite.

Could be. But if B12 knew they are going to get a better contract and felt confident in it....than just wait. Why rush it...

Again, it’s the opposite. If you’re confident, you get it in writing what the numbers are. Not confident in the numbers and you would wait and go with uncertainty

(08-31-2022 10:17 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 10:11 AM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Interesting development. This should clear up for everyone where they stand and the direction the networks and conferences want to go. This will give all of the PAC and BigXII schools a clear understanding of what their value is, Value in the BigXII, value in the PAC, value in an expanded PAC, value in an expanded BigXII, and possibly your expected payout % if joining the B1G.

God forbid this ends up in a higher Pay-out for all PAC and BigXII schools than they are receiving in the ACC. I know people hold strong on that ACC GOR and for good reason, but a development where the two wounded conferences end up getting pay bumps above the ACC who still has all it's members would result in Lawyers and Chaos.

IMO the most likely outcome is both conferences end up being offered similar money that's just a hair below the ACC payout. This will result in little to no movement between the conferences and would give the B1G the opportunity to add 2-4 PAC schools at the lowest payout possible if they want. B1G 18-20, PAC at 10-12, BigXII stays at 12, ACC stays at 14 + ND and we enter a protracted realignment period where their is very little movement before we hit the 2030's.

Beware of the chaos coming sooner than the 2030's, although I'm guessing for smaller TV contracts that lead to an uneasy stabilization, I could absolutely see it going the other way. I'm 55/45 right now LOL

The ACC wouldn't have any argument to fight in court.

"We aren't getting paid as much!".

"Did you sign willingly & freely?"

"Yes"

"Is this a predatory contract & can you prove it?"

"No"

"Case dismissed"

I don't want to get confused, I fully agree with what you're saying, IMO what we might see is some pissed off schools attempt some illogical and irrational things or at the very least start to be extremely vocal to the media about their displeasure.

(08-31-2022 10:21 AM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 10:17 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 10:11 AM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Interesting development. This should clear up for everyone where they stand and the direction the networks and conferences want to go. This will give all of the PAC and BigXII schools a clear understanding of what their value is, Value in the BigXII, value in the PAC, value in an expanded PAC, value in an expanded BigXII, and possibly your expected payout % if joining the B1G.

God forbid this ends up in a higher Pay-out for all PAC and BigXII schools than they are receiving in the ACC. I know people hold strong on that ACC GOR and for good reason, but a development where the two wounded conferences end up getting pay bumps above the ACC who still has all it's members would result in Lawyers and Chaos.

IMO the most likely outcome is both conferences end up being offered similar money that's just a hair below the ACC payout. This will result in little to no movement between the conferences and would give the B1G the opportunity to add 2-4 PAC schools at the lowest payout possible if they want. B1G 18-20, PAC at 10-12, BigXII stays at 12, ACC stays at 14 + ND and we enter a protracted realignment period where their is very little movement before we hit the 2030's.

Beware of the chaos coming sooner than the 2030's, although I'm guessing for smaller TV contracts that lead to an uneasy stabilization, I could absolutely see it going the other way. I'm 55/45 right now LOL

The ACC wouldn't have any argument to fight in court.

"We aren't getting paid as much!".

"Did you sign willingly & freely?"

"Yes"

"Is this a predatory contract & can you prove it?"

"No"

"Case dismissed"

I don't want to get confused, I fully agree with what you're saying, IMO what we might see is some pissed off schools attempt some illogical and irrational things or at the very least start to be extremely vocal to the media about their displeasure.

I agree they'll be discontent. I just don't know what leg to stand on the ACC has to push ESPN with.

Also if discontent got bad enough that if ESPN wanted to soothe egos they could do so in about 3-7 years instead of the 10+ they have now, pay less, and still be magnanimous. So it comes back to why now? I don't see a good why for acting or even more so now.

(08-31-2022 10:17 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 10:11 AM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Interesting development. This should clear up for everyone where they stand and the direction the networks and conferences want to go. This will give all of the PAC and BigXII schools a clear understanding of what their value is, Value in the BigXII, value in the PAC, value in an expanded PAC, value in an expanded BigXII, and possibly your expected payout % if joining the B1G.

God forbid this ends up in a higher Pay-out for all PAC and BigXII schools than they are receiving in the ACC. I know people hold strong on that ACC GOR and for good reason, but a development where the two wounded conferences end up getting pay bumps above the ACC who still has all it's members would result in Lawyers and Chaos.

IMO the most likely outcome is both conferences end up being offered similar money that's just a hair below the ACC payout. This will result in little to no movement between the conferences and would give the B1G the opportunity to add 2-4 PAC schools at the lowest payout possible if they want. B1G 18-20, PAC at 10-12, BigXII stays at 12, ACC stays at 14 + ND and we enter a protracted realignment period where their is very little movement before we hit the 2030's.

Beware of the chaos coming sooner than the 2030's, although I'm guessing for smaller TV contracts that lead to an uneasy stabilization, I could absolutely see it going the other way. I'm 55/45 right now LOL

The ACC wouldn't have any argument to fight in court.

"We aren't getting paid as much!".

"Did you sign willingly & freely?"

"Yes"

"Is this a predatory contract & can you prove it?"

"No"

"Case dismissed"

That last part is not necessarily true. Did ESPN ever play any games to keep certain schools in the ACC (vs SEC) to keep ND happy? Perhaps. Can they prove it or have they already let ESPN know "we know what you did". Who knows. I'm sure there will be the conference/network equivalent of an election year "October Surprise" at some point.

As far as the poster who said there won't be any bad blood between top ACC schools and ESPN if the current trend continues through 2030 or beyond...no chance. The B1G is loving it.

Link:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/big-...s-espn-fox

Quote:With ESPN and FOX agreeing to initiate early Big 12 discussions, the Big 12 can now give potential new members from the Pac-12 specific numbers on its new media rights deal. It would allow any Pac-12 schools to compare the revenue numbers if they joined the Big 12 or remained in the Pac-12 without USC and UCLA and any other teams that left for the Big Ten.

This does feel orchestrated.

Brett suggesting if B1G struck the PAC right now that Big12 would be able to provide an immediate valuation for PAC to Big12.

So I think B1G will strike again first and Big12 will strike next for four corners.

(08-31-2022 07:53 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 07:39 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-31-2022 07:32 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

McMurphy confirming too.

Really can’t wait to get some real tv valuations with PAC vs Big12 realignment.

IMO, this will determine whether expansion moves forward with a viable P3 with no access lost for schools remaining in the PAC and ACC, or whether we painfully drag things out until 2036. Early negotiations favor not only the B12 but also Network timetables and consolidation.

Now should FOX and ESPN undervalue the offers it would likely signal an end to this realignment. If they raise it modestly it could be the starting gun for a mad last dash for cash and a P3.

If the Big12 receives valuations higher than the current ACC payout. That might be the final straw for FSU and Miami. I can't imagine a world where they sit back and watch UCF get paid more than them for 8-10 years.

So, if you're ESPN and Fox, maybe you don't offer more than $25 or $30M per school for secondary content. Fox needs some FS1 games, ESPN needs to fill a few Saturday windows and some weeknight games and some ESPN+ content.

Fox and ESPN aren't at war. Fox can't afford to be.

The ACC already has a contract with ESPN which spells out exactly how much coverage ACC programs are guaranteed for the next 14 years. Whatever ESPN signs (if they do) with the Big XII will not supersede that. This is totally extra inventory for ESPN. Aka, filling in the gaps.

But let the boardroom conspiracy theories commence!