RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates
OK, since Wilner is convinced no more B1G expansion, I'll rank the expansion candidates, with 10.0 being a perfect score:
1. San Diego State (7.0)
-- Pac-12 needs back in Southern California badly. OK academics, not R1, not AAU, but solid MBB, budget challenged
-- note, location is 4.5 of those points
2. Houston (6.5)
-- This was the top value before the Big 12 invited them. Big Texas market, decent research, strong FB, MBB
-- unlikely they can be redirected from the Big 12, but it's worth a try
3 (a). Colorado State (5.0)
3 (b). Air Force (5.0)
-- both are excellent academic fits. CSU is solid in MBB, but weak fan support. AF is niche
-- neither school will even be considered unless Colorado and another four corner school leave the Pac-12
5. Southern Methodist (4.0)
-- The AI is high, but otherwise not a great institutional fit. Well funded and competitive athletics, in the valuable DFW market
-- Unlike Houston who have a Big 12 invite, they are available and would likely jump at a chance to get in an autonomous conference
6 (a). Fresno State (3.5)
-- smaller market, decent following, strong FB under Tollner. Weak academics, low AI and graduation rates. Not funded at Pac-12 levels/
6 (b). UNLV (3.5)
-- Las Vegas metro. Barely an academic fit (low AI and graduation rates) but is R1, improving research. MBB is OK, sports underfunded.
6 ©. Boise State (3.5)
-- best following, but in the middle of nowhere. Terrible academic, poor institutional fit. Usually good FB and decent MBB despite budget.
-- these three schools qualify as "pick your poison" choices. None helps much except to give you an even number
9. New Mexico (3.1)
-- flagship, but weak academics, financially challenged. Often good at MBB, hopeless in FB. Albuquerque weather get points.
10. Wyoming (2.9)
-- flagship, weak academics, not much research. But they love football, which might push them ahead of New Mexico, except the location.
11. Utah State (2.7)
-- Actually a decent school comparable to Oregon State and San Diego State. But really small budgets, 3rd school in small state.
12. San Jose State (2.6)
-- Silicon Valley location is most of this rating. Not an institutional fit. Up and down football, terrible unfunded MBB.
-- they only make the list of candidates once Cal and Stanford leave. Recruiting requirements for students and athletes need NorCal.
13. Nevada (2.5)
-- R1 institution, MBB and FB are up and down, depending on the coach. Great Ski location. But smaller school, budget and market
14. Hawaii (1.0)
-- Institutionally a decent fit, decent research, R1. But not solid in sports (middling Big West). Travel/time zone issues make them a no.
"Wild Card". Rice (?)
-- institutionally the Pac-12 Presidents would love them. Location is excellent in Houston. But athletics are underfunded and very weak.
Summary. If they are not raided again, the Pac-12 is looking at San Diego State and who knows whom else. Houston would be the ideal grab, but 99% likely they are not in play. That drops you down to SMU whose athletics are funded at Pac-12 level, are in a valuable market, and are available, if the Pac-12 Presidents can overlook institutional fit concerns, and generally weak following. Otherwise pick your poison among UNLV, Fresno State and Boise State.
Honestly I can see the Pac-12 Presidents grudgingly accept San Diego State, but insisting on Rice as partner school (after Houston confirms they are not interested) instead of SMU or anyone else on the list. If the 2nd school isn't going to help much for TV contract, then at least get one the Presidents would be happy to have as a member. That's why I put them as a very low chance wild card.
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Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates
