And why the ACC shouldn't have an issue with just moving on.

When expansion to an 8-school playoff was first discussed the 3 billion more figure was tossed around. At 16 schools, and not because of the initial figure, some are now estimating an upper tier of brands consolidated to make possible the greatest number of games which cross the 5 million viewer threshold, and a 16-school playoff could be worth 6 billion more.

Let's make a few basic and reasonable assumptions. First, the networks would pay for the value added for brand consolidation, and indeed have already done so in the Big 10 contract, which contains an additional 2 billion for further additions, which works out to the new contract payout plus 4 new schools pro rata. The contract contains a separate clause for the addition of Notre Dame.

Second, let's assume the networks split the value of the 16 school playoff. That's 1.5 billion each for ESPN and FOX. Should we initially have the SEC, the Big 10, and a compilation third conference that would be 1 billion each for them. Why would the SEC and B1G agree to this? They each will be earning ~80 million per school in media money. Each school in the 24 member B1G and SEC would NET another 40 million for each school annually from 1 billion (counting the conference share).

The compilation conference of 24 schools would also NET another 40 million.

So why would the Networks want to do this? If they paid the up charge to promote 8 schools to the B1G and 8 schools to the SEC at ~40 million each, then each Network spends an additional 320 million dollars. If they moved the PAC 4 corners to the New B12 and the remnant ACC schools to the same and paid each 5 million more than they make now (think 42 million) they have each spent in this 24-member conference, another 60 to 65 million each, if they split it. So, for a NET cost of 385 million each they NET 1.15 billion in profit, and they get the high yield viewership revenue for the SEC and B1G that the 24 games per week at 5 million plus viewers yields.

Now, unlike what Frank claims about making everyone happy, would Wake Forest, B.C. and Pitt, etc. enjoy making 82 million a year with playoff money even if everyone else makes 120 million? Or would they rather moan and cry and be out completely in 14 years. They may still be out in 14 years with this transitional model, but with 680 million more for their trouble.

It's about making everyone whole financially for the contracted period, not about making them happy per se.

Now worst-case scenario, half it all but keep the initial overhead and the Networks make 365 million more plus advertising upgrades, the B1G and SEC get 100 million per member and the consolation conference gets 62 million per member, and it's all paid for by consolidation and expanded playoffs. And it doesn't include the huge reduction in conference duplicated overhead.

Now give me a logical reason to oppose the change?

My main pushback is that this is all contingent on a playoff solely consisting of a "closed universe" of 3 conferences and that's it.

I don't think it will be that easy no matter how much power the Big Ten and SEC might have.

Sure, if you're saying that Wake Forest is *guaranteed* to be in that P3 league, then there's at least a discussion.

However, I don't think that anyone can provide the guarantee that you're proposing in practicality. This goes back to the belief/want of many fans to have a coordinated multi-party realignment that's nice and neat and orderly with a logical outcome when it's pretty much anything but that here (or else the Big Ten wouldn't be adding USC/UCLA *alone* without any other West Coast schools in the first place or that we'd still be having discussions about what the CFP looks like and leaving a ton of money on the table even though pretty much everyone agreed upon what it should look like a year ago).

Plus, even if this restructuring does end up being this orderly in the way that you propose, I don't find that scenario particularly realistic in the next few years in the short-term. If anything, this seems like a scenario more like 15 years down the road if it were to ever happen, in which case all of the parties involved would just let the current ACC GOR run out, anyway.

To be sure, you at least have a cogent scenario that Wake Forest would listen to if I were advising them, so I'll give you that much.

Most of the arguments about the Wake Forests of the world agreeing to "break the GOR" are essentially based on "FSU/Clemson/Miami/UNC are angry and ESPN LOOOVES the SEC OMG and it can't be possible that the rest of the ACC will let them be angry for the next 14 years, right?" My retort to those arguments is, "You're freaking right that the rest of the ACC will let them be angry for the next 14 years in order to continue being in a power conference and collecting checks." 14 years is an eternity in this world. We keep referring to ESPN controlling everything, yet who knows what ESPN will even look like in 14 years (and I've long been one of the more bullish people about the long-term prospects of ESPN).

One thing I find amusing is that every prediction of B1G and SEC at 24 each seems to double count some ACC schools (UNC, UVA, FSU, etc) as belonging to both conferences. The combined B1G24 and SEC24 that always gets thrown about only includes about 44 schools.

(08-25-2022 04:01 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  My main pushback is that this is all contingent on a playoff solely consisting of a "closed universe" of 3 conferences and that's it.

I don't think it will be that easy no matter how much power the Big Ten and SEC might have.

Sure, if you're saying that Wake Forest is *guaranteed* to be in that P3 league, then there's at least a discussion.

However, I don't think that anyone can provide the guarantee that you're proposing in practicality. This goes back to the belief/want of many fans to have a coordinated multi-party realignment that's nice and neat and orderly with a logical outcome when it's pretty much anything but that here (or else the Big Ten wouldn't be adding USC/UCLA *alone* without any other West Coast schools in the first place or that we'd still be having discussions about what the CFP looks like and leaving a ton of money on the table even though pretty much everyone agreed upon what it should look like a year ago).

Plus, even if this restructuring does end up being this orderly in the way that you propose, I don't find that scenario particularly realistic in the next few years in the short-term. If anything, this seems like a scenario more like 15 years down the road if it were to ever happen, in which case all of the parties involved would just let the current ACC GOR run out, anyway.

To be sure, you at least have a cogent scenario that Wake Forest would listen to if I were advising them, so I'll give you that much.

Most of the arguments about the Wake Forests of the world agreeing to "break the GOR" are essentially based on "FSU/Clemson/Miami/UNC are angry and ESPN LOOOVES the SEC OMG and it can't be possible that the rest of the ACC will let them be angry for the next 14 years, right?" My retort to those arguments is, "You're freaking right that the rest of the ACC will let them be angry for the next 14 years in order to continue being in a power conference and collecting checks." 14 years is an eternity in this world. We keep referring to ESPN controlling everything, yet who knows what ESPN will even look like in 14 years (and I've long been one of the more bullish people about the long-term prospects of ESPN).

It's called a breakaway, and it would include three of the last G5's capable of making the jump. The vast majority of G5's are way too subsidized to be justified. It's simply going to happen, and for hoops as well.

(08-25-2022 04:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 04:01 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  My main pushback is that this is all contingent on a playoff solely consisting of a "closed universe" of 3 conferences and that's it.

I don't think it will be that easy no matter how much power the Big Ten and SEC might have.

Sure, if you're saying that Wake Forest is *guaranteed* to be in that P3 league, then there's at least a discussion.

However, I don't think that anyone can provide the guarantee that you're proposing in practicality. This goes back to the belief/want of many fans to have a coordinated multi-party realignment that's nice and neat and orderly with a logical outcome when it's pretty much anything but that here (or else the Big Ten wouldn't be adding USC/UCLA *alone* without any other West Coast schools in the first place or that we'd still be having discussions about what the CFP looks like and leaving a ton of money on the table even though pretty much everyone agreed upon what it should look like a year ago).

Plus, even if this restructuring does end up being this orderly in the way that you propose, I don't find that scenario particularly realistic in the next few years in the short-term. If anything, this seems like a scenario more like 15 years down the road if it were to ever happen, in which case all of the parties involved would just let the current ACC GOR run out, anyway.

To be sure, you at least have a cogent scenario that Wake Forest would listen to if I were advising them, so I'll give you that much.

Most of the arguments about the Wake Forests of the world agreeing to "break the GOR" are essentially based on "FSU/Clemson/Miami/UNC are angry and ESPN LOOOVES the SEC OMG and it can't be possible that the rest of the ACC will let them be angry for the next 14 years, right?" My retort to those arguments is, "You're freaking right that the rest of the ACC will let them be angry for the next 14 years in order to continue being in a power conference and collecting checks." 14 years is an eternity in this world. We keep referring to ESPN controlling everything, yet who knows what ESPN will even look like in 14 years (and I've long been one of the more bullish people about the long-term prospects of ESPN).

It's called a breakaway, and it would include three of the last G5's capable of making the jump. The vast majority of G5's are way too subsidized to be justified. It's simply going to happen, and for hoops as well.

Agreed.
Unfortunately for me and my interests, it appears we are headed here fast.
The silence right now is obvious that major conversations are taking place; at least that's my feeling.

If it’s a closed system, all we really have to decide is which 16 schools end up in the Big 10/SEC, and what 3 schools you call up into Conference 3.

If I had to take a stab, and this is contingent on Warren and Sankey working collaboratively, is:

SEC: FSU, GT, Clemson, Louisville, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT
Big 10: Cal, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Notre Dame, Miami, Pitt, Kansas

Conference 3 West: WSU, Ore St, Utah, Colorado, BYU, San Diego St, Arizona, Arizona St
Conference 3 Central: Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Memphis, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston
Conference 3 East: BC, Cuse, WVU, Cincinnati, WF, Duke, USF, UCF

Alternatively, you could just do 21 in Conference 3 and drop San Diego St, Memphis, and USF.

(08-25-2022 05:34 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If it’s a closed system, all we really have to decide is which 16 schools end up in the Big 10/SEC, and what 3 schools you call up into Conference 3.

If I had to take a stab, and this is contingent on Warren and Sankey working collaboratively, is:

SEC: FSU, GT, Clemson, Louisville, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT
Big 10: Cal, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Notre Dame, Miami, Pitt, Kansas

Conference 3 West: WSU, Ore St, Utah, Colorado, BYU, San Diego St, Arizona, Arizona St
Conference 3 Central: Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Memphis, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston
Conference 3 East: BC, Cuse, WVU, Cincinnati, WF, Duke, USF, UCF

Alternatively, you could just do 21 in Conference 3 and drop San Diego St, Memphis, and USF.

I think We all could live with that setup

(08-25-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  And why the ACC shouldn't have an issue with just moving on.

When expansion to an 8-school playoff was first discussed the 3 billion more figure was tossed around. At 16 schools, and not because of the initial figure, some are now estimating an upper tier of brands consolidated to make possible the greatest number of games which cross the 5 million viewer threshold, and a 16-school playoff could be worth 6 billion more.

Let's make a few basic and reasonable assumptions. First, the networks would pay for the value added for brand consolidation, and indeed have already done so in the Big 10 contract, which contains an additional 2 billion for further additions, which works out to the new contract payout plus 4 new schools pro rata. The contract contains a separate clause for the addition of Notre Dame.

Second, let's assume the networks split the value of the 16 school playoff. That's 1.5 billion each for ESPN and FOX. Should we initially have the SEC, the Big 10, and a compilation third conference that would be 1 billion each for them. Why would the SEC and B1G agree to this? They each will be earning ~80 million per school in media money. Each school in the 24 member B1G and SEC would NET another 40 million for each school annually from 1 billion (counting the conference share).

The compilation conference of 24 schools would also NET another 40 million.

So why would the Networks want to do this? If they paid the up charge to promote 8 schools to the B1G and 8 schools to the SEC at ~40 million each, then each Network spends an additional 320 million dollars. If they moved the PAC 4 corners to the New B12 and the remnant ACC schools to the same and paid each 5 million more than they make now (think 42 million) they have each spent in this 24-member conference, another 60 to 65 million each, if they split it. So, for a NET cost of 385 million each they NET 1.15 billion in profit, and they get the high yield viewership revenue for the SEC and B1G that the 24 games per week at 5 million plus viewers yields.

Now, unlike what Frank claims about making everyone happy, would Wake Forest, B.C. and Pitt, etc. enjoy making 82 million a year with playoff money even if everyone else makes 120 million? Or would they rather moan and cry and be out completely in 14 years. They may still be out in 14 years with this transitional model, but with 680 million more for their trouble.

It's about making everyone whole financially for the contracted period, not about making them happy per se.

Now worst-case scenario, half it all but keep the initial overhead and the Networks make 365 million more plus advertising upgrades, the B1G and SEC get 100 million per member and the consolation conference gets 62 million per member, and it's all paid for by consolidation and expanded playoffs. And it doesn't include the huge reduction in conference duplicated overhead.

Now give me a logical reason to oppose the change?

There are 5 more years left on the current playoff---and perhaps the next CFP deal could be any length that works for the transition. Why couldnt a 3, 4, or 5 power conference model work until the ACC GOR is at or very close to expiration. Then, once we are near the GOR expiration---I would think by then the Big10/SEC could have decided who they want and mapped out their future long term structures. Whats left outside of the Big10/SEC groups would certainly be more than ready to coalesce into that 3rd conference to participate in whatever postseason structure the B10/SEC create. Point is---I dont see why the SEC/B10 cant create their new long term set up NOW---and participation in the breakaway beyond the SEC/B10 core can be 3 conferences for now (later consolidatiting into one when the ACC GOR expires). Heck---the distribution of the teams in that P12/B12/ACC consolidation can even be agreed upon now---but not enacted until later.

I guess what Im saying is why couldnt there be a transitional period in the structure of any breakaway. Seems like that would be a lot easier to accomplish as it wouldnt require breaking the ACC GOR.

I still can't wrap my mind around why a 3rd makes more sense than a 3rd and 4th for tier 2. I still think we end up with. P12 remnant and an ACC remnant aligned with Fox and ESPN respectively.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Some of y’all ain’t cutout for the conference realignment rumor mill.
Pace yourself

We need to be hopeful there are discussions going on to get this or something similar done. No one wants to kick this can down the road for another 14 years.

(08-25-2022 07:00 PM)b2b Wrote:  I still can't wrap my mind around why a 3rd makes more sense than a 3rd and 4th for tier 2. I still think we end up with. P12 remnant and an ACC remnant aligned with Fox and ESPN respectively.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Less overhead and a more concentrated and equal split. You waste a whole team share each year just maintaining a conference office.

(08-25-2022 05:34 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If it’s a closed system, all we really have to decide is which 16 schools end up in the Big 10/SEC, and what 3 schools you call up into Conference 3.

If I had to take a stab, and this is contingent on Warren and Sankey working collaboratively, is:

SEC: FSU, GT, Clemson, Louisville, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT
Big 10: Cal, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Notre Dame, Miami, Pitt, Kansas

Conference 3 West: WSU, Ore St, Utah, Colorado, BYU, San Diego St, Arizona, Arizona St
Conference 3 Central: Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Memphis, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston
Conference 3 East: BC, Cuse, WVU, Cincinnati, WF, Duke, USF, UCF

Alternatively, you could just do 21 in Conference 3 and drop San Diego St, Memphis, and USF.

Muskie: You have Kansas placed twice; based on the number of teams in Conference 3 Central, I think you meant to move Kansas to the Big Ten but didn't delete them from C3C.

(08-25-2022 04:34 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  One thing I find amusing is that every prediction of B1G and SEC at 24 each seems to double count some ACC schools (UNC, UVA, FSU, etc) as belonging to both conferences. The combined B1G24 and SEC24 that always gets thrown about only includes about 44 schools.

I don't think I've ever seen that. Big 10 gets to 24 pretty easy w/ ND + P12 Flagship and Stanford. SEC gets to 24 with the most valuable ACC / ESPN properties+ Kansas. Pretty cut and dry in my opinion. I think this is way more doable than some here want to admit considering ESPN owns the ACC and SEC.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

(08-25-2022 07:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 07:00 PM)b2b Wrote:  I still can't wrap my mind around why a 3rd makes more sense than a 3rd and 4th for tier 2. I still think we end up with. P12 remnant and an ACC remnant aligned with Fox and ESPN respectively.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Less overhead and a more concentrated and equal split. You waste a whole team share each year just maintaining a conference office.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking as an ECU fan. It would take a miracle / last chopper out of Saigon basically.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

(08-25-2022 05:57 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 05:34 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If it’s a closed system, all we really have to decide is which 16 schools end up in the Big 10/SEC, and what 3 schools you call up into Conference 3.

If I had to take a stab, and this is contingent on Warren and Sankey working collaboratively, is:

SEC: FSU, GT, Clemson, Louisville, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT
Big 10: Cal, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Notre Dame, Miami, Pitt, Kansas

Conference 3 West: WSU, Ore St, Utah, Colorado, BYU, San Diego St, Arizona, Arizona St
Conference 3 Central: Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Memphis, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston
Conference 3 East: BC, Cuse, WVU, Cincinnati, WF, Duke, USF, UCF

Alternatively, you could just do 21 in Conference 3 and drop San Diego St, Memphis, and USF.

I think We all could live with that setup

Probably Pitt and Miami to the SEC and and 1 NC and 1 VA school to the B1G, but the overall 16 you listed could work.

(08-25-2022 07:08 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Some of y’all ain’t cutout for the conference realignment rumor mill.
Pace yourself

We need to be hopeful there are discussions going on to get this or something similar done. No one wants to kick this can down the road for another 14 years.

Wake Forest probably does.

Final 3 Golden Tickets: Memphis, San Diego St, South Florida

B1G
Atlantic: Maryland, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Midwest: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
North: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Pacific: California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington

SEC
Coastal: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida St, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St
Southeast: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Southwest: Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

XIV
Central: Baylor, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, Memphis, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
East: Boston College, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, North Carolina St, South Florida, Wake Forest, West Virginia
West: Arizona, Arizona St, BYU, Colorado, Oregon St, San Diego St, Utah, Washington St

(08-25-2022 07:15 PM)EdwordL Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 05:34 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If it’s a closed system, all we really have to decide is which 16 schools end up in the Big 10/SEC, and what 3 schools you call up into Conference 3.

If I had to take a stab, and this is contingent on Warren and Sankey working collaboratively, is:

SEC: FSU, GT, Clemson, Louisville, UNC, NC St, UVA, VT
Big 10: Cal, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Notre Dame, Miami, Pitt, Kansas

Conference 3 West: WSU, Ore St, Utah, Colorado, BYU, San Diego St, Arizona, Arizona St
Conference 3 Central: Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Memphis, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston
Conference 3 East: BC, Cuse, WVU, Cincinnati, WF, Duke, USF, UCF

Alternatively, you could just do 21 in Conference 3 and drop San Diego St, Memphis, and USF.

Muskie: You have Kansas placed twice; based on the number of teams in Conference 3 Central, I think you meant to move Kansas to the Big Ten but didn't delete them from C3C.

Thanks for catching with that. I’ve toyed with a few different versions of the Breakaway 3–sometimes I have Kansas in the Big 10 and others in “Conference 3”. Memphis bounces between the Central and East divisions of Conference 3 depending on where Kansas goes.

(08-25-2022 07:53 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Final 3 Golden Tickets: Memphis, San Diego St, South Florida

B1G
Atlantic: Maryland, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Midwest: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
North: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Pacific: California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington

SEC
Coastal: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida St, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St
Southeast: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Southwest: Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

XIV
Central: Baylor, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, Memphis, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
East: Boston College, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, North Carolina St, South Florida, Wake Forest, West Virginia
West: Arizona, Arizona St, BYU, Colorado, Oregon St, San Diego St, Utah, Washington St

That would work!

(08-25-2022 07:53 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Final 3 Golden Tickets: Memphis, San Diego St, South Florida

B1G
Atlantic: Maryland, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Midwest: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
North: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Pacific: California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington

SEC
Coastal: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida St, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St
Southeast: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Southwest: Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

XIV
Central: Baylor, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, Memphis, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
East: Boston College, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Louisville, North Carolina St, South Florida, Wake Forest, West Virginia
West: Arizona, Arizona St, BYU, Colorado, Oregon St, San Diego St, Utah, Washington St

That one division feels very Big East-ish. Personally, I think it would be better to take Kansas in place of one of those ACC schools and shift Penn St over to help co-anchor that division with ND and Miami.