(08-23-2022 08:44 PM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 01:58 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Anyone else find it curious that we seem to be hearing a lot out of Oregon, but not from Washington, Stanford, Cal, etc?

Yes! Big Ten and SEC don’t like leaks and if I had to guess it’s all coming from Oregon camp.

They don’t??

The BIG has been flaming this at nearly every turn. A&M leaked OU/Ut (intentionally)

Warren has had several opportunities to shut this down, and he instead doesn’t even sidestep. It even being leaked that Oregon, UW, Cal, Stanford, FSU , Miami were targets.

(08-23-2022 09:26 PM)bullet Wrote:  The Big 10 would not give them a permanent partial share. Eventually they would be whole.

We are not going to see a 2.5x multiplier or whatever it was on top of the last TV cycle for the B1G in seven years time. The amount that was just paid is the cost or premium typically paid post M&A between companies. It's not going to go up at that rate barring 10% compounding inflation rates or... an evolution to a full semi-professional model that is executed perfectly on every level from here to there. Other than that, the PAC4 will get their equal shares on the next TV cycle, which will be here before you blink.

(08-23-2022 09:40 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 08:44 PM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 01:58 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Anyone else find it curious that we seem to be hearing a lot out of Oregon, but not from Washington, Stanford, Cal, etc?

Yes! Big Ten and SEC don’t like leaks and if I had to guess it’s all coming from Oregon camp.

They don’t??

The BIG has been flaming this at nearly every turn. A&M leaked OU/Ut (intentionally)

Warren has had several opportunities to shut this down, and he instead doesn’t even sidestep. It even being leaked that Oregon, UW, Cal, Stanford, FSU , Miami were targets.

Raiding the PAC 12, it was like Zach Mayo in Officer and a Gentleman screaming "I got nowhere else to go!" The PAC 12 was the obvious target and the schools all mentioned were among the PAC's top 6 revenue producers excluding Cal. Arizona State was not AAU as #5. And if they wanted in Big States Florida had possibly the most acceptable. It's like reading a cat's mind, all you have to do is observe what it is moving and chirping in front of them, and FSU, Clemson, and Miami have been chirping and South Carolina is a small state and Clemson harder to justify so hello!

Duke, UNC, UVa, and Ga Tech are AAU so already on the menu.

All the SEC has to do is take the 4 AAU's, Miami and FSU and Clemson. Then Kansas polishes it off nicely, and is uhm, AAU!

(08-23-2022 09:26 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 08:56 PM)Alanda Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 08:11 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Rather than start a new thread, I'll link this Canzano interview with McMurphy here from just this afternoon. The conference realignment related discussion begins at 9:00 to approximately 23:00. Excellent interview.

https://www.750thegame.com/listen-brett-...n-the-bft/

The downplay of Oregon and friends taking a partial share is strong. That partial share with the B1G could be bigger than a full share in PAC.

The Big 10 would not give them a permanent partial share. Eventually they would be whole.

Oh yeah I know. I was just restating here that the partial share might be bigger than their full share in the PAC for all we know.

The B1G moves at it's own pace. I'm not convinced they are in a rush to add anyone at this time. Oregon and Washington will be there 6 weeks from now, 6 months from now 6 years from now. I get that many want to know what the final outcome will be right away but we may not. IMO the BIG will live with the LA schools for awhile. I think they are looking south

(08-23-2022 09:53 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  The B1G moves at it's own pace. I'm not convinced they are in a rush to add anyone at this time. Oregon and Washington will be there 6 weeks from now, 6 months from now 6 years from now. I get that many want to know what the final outcome will be right away but we may not. IMO the BIG will live with the LA schools for awhile. I think they are looking south

I have thought all along that the B1G might want to attract SEC schools, especially if it is clear one they are going to make more money. I am not sure that is clear, but it is IMO likely.

IMO, if the SEC or the B1G assumes that the other behemoth has no designs on their schools, they are being foolish.

Problem is, even if some SEC schools might want to join the B1G, I believe the SEC also has a GOR that extends to 2034 or whatever as well.

(08-23-2022 09:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 09:40 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 08:44 PM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 01:58 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Anyone else find it curious that we seem to be hearing a lot out of Oregon, but not from Washington, Stanford, Cal, etc?

Yes! Big Ten and SEC don’t like leaks and if I had to guess it’s all coming from Oregon camp.

They don’t??

The BIG has been flaming this at nearly every turn. A&M leaked OU/Ut (intentionally)

Warren has had several opportunities to shut this down, and he instead doesn’t even sidestep. It even being leaked that Oregon, UW, Cal, Stanford, FSU , Miami were targets.

Raiding the PAC 12, it was like Zach Mayo in Officer and a Gentleman screaming "I got nowhere else to go!" The PAC 12 was the obvious target and the schools all mentioned were among the PAC's top 6 revenue producers excluding Cal. Arizona State was not AAU as #5. And if they wanted in Big States Florida had possibly the most acceptable. It's like reading a cat's mind, all you have to do is observe what it is moving and chirping in front of them, and FSU, Clemson, and Miami have been chirping and South Carolina is a small state and Clemson harder to justify so hello!

Duke, UNC, UVa, and Ga Tech are AAU so already on the menu.

All the SEC has to do is take the 4 AAU's, Miami and FSU and Clemson. Then Kansas polishes it off nicely, and is uhm, AAU!

Warren and BIG been transparent, while not much from the target schools. Makes one wonder if the emails the PAC HQ should be collecting aren’t from the Big 12!

What percentage gain do the 20 school P2s get on base pay from new postseason compared to stopping at 16? Likely 9 digits imo, and far more then the shortfall in Oregon’s BIG valuation. It’s not like an Oregon-Ohio St game doesn’t have potential to draw all those rust belt TVs at a rate higher than most BiG-BIG action

(08-23-2022 09:53 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  The B1G moves at it's own pace. I'm not convinced they are in a rush to add anyone at this time. Oregon and Washington will be there 6 weeks from now, 6 months from now 6 years from now. I get that many want to know what the final outcome will be right away but we may not. IMO the BIG will live with the LA schools for awhile. I think they are looking south

So you think they’ll just play without a GOR or TV deal?

They may not be available if ESPN can lock them up.

And if you’re going to add them ever, you add them soon, as schools outside the P2 have large brand decay risk. If you think of this as adding franchises, they add as soon as they know what schools are available

(08-23-2022 08:41 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Man if Cal got left out for Arizona State that would be brutal for the hippie bears

Not gonna lie. It would suck from this end too. Doing everything in your power (AAU, winning in football) to get left out in lieu of the dumpster fire that is ASU athletics would suck.

(08-23-2022 09:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 09:53 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  The B1G moves at it's own pace. I'm not convinced they are in a rush to add anyone at this time. Oregon and Washington will be there 6 weeks from now, 6 months from now 6 years from now. I get that many want to know what the final outcome will be right away but we may not. IMO the BIG will live with the LA schools for awhile. I think they are looking south

I have thought all along that the B1G might want to attract SEC schools, especially if it is clear one they are going to make more money. I am not sure that is clear, but it is IMO likely.

IMO, if the SEC or the B1G assumes that the other behemoth has no designs on their schools, they are being foolish.

Problem is, even if some SEC schools might want to join the B1G, I believe the SEC also has a GOR that extends to 2034 or whatever as well.

You can stop trolling Quo. It won't be overlooked moving forward. The SEC and Big 10 money will be close enough that no school, save maybe a Missouri, would leave either, piss off their fan base, trash their history and branding and alienate their donors to appease the only ones who might have an inkling to do anything that stupid, some of the faculty. So, this is just another of your preposterous taunts.

No doubt the Big 10 needs Southern recruiting access, likely as a ND prerequisite for committing to a move. It was what Swarbrick asked of Slive should the ACC not work out. He wanted scheduling agreements with the SEC so they could play in Georgia, Florida and Louisiana at that time, and likely Texas in the future. I'm sure the key football schools of the B1G share that desire.

But now that ESPN said adios to the B1G it's simply not going to be easy or likely.

In my mind the only questions left are:
1. Do we stop at 24? I think so.
2. Do we have a tweener conference which is included in the post season so damages can be mitigated to make moves possible? I think this is likely and could have 20-24 schools in it as well including the 4 corners, 4 ACC schools, and likely will be an enhanced B12.
3. Do FOX and ESPN split rights on the tweener or does ESPN own it outright? I don't know on this one. But if they split it then they likely predetermined which 24 head Big 10 and which 24 are SEC bound and they are working together. If ESPN scoops it they aren't working together, the B1G won't get any schools in Georgia and Florida and ND remains independent. ESPN will control the numbers and votes on the future CFP and tournament.

Otherwise Paisan, it's pretty much headed right down the path I laid out months ago.

(08-23-2022 10:03 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 09:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 09:40 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 08:44 PM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 01:58 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Anyone else find it curious that we seem to be hearing a lot out of Oregon, but not from Washington, Stanford, Cal, etc?

Yes! Big Ten and SEC don’t like leaks and if I had to guess it’s all coming from Oregon camp.

They don’t??

The BIG has been flaming this at nearly every turn. A&M leaked OU/Ut (intentionally)

Warren has had several opportunities to shut this down, and he instead doesn’t even sidestep. It even being leaked that Oregon, UW, Cal, Stanford, FSU , Miami were targets.

Raiding the PAC 12, it was like Zach Mayo in Officer and a Gentleman screaming "I got nowhere else to go!" The PAC 12 was the obvious target and the schools all mentioned were among the PAC's top 6 revenue producers excluding Cal. Arizona State was not AAU as #5. And if they wanted in Big States Florida had possibly the most acceptable. It's like reading a cat's mind, all you have to do is observe what it is moving and chirping in front of them, and FSU, Clemson, and Miami have been chirping and South Carolina is a small state and Clemson harder to justify so hello!

Duke, UNC, UVa, and Ga Tech are AAU so already on the menu.

All the SEC has to do is take the 4 AAU's, Miami and FSU and Clemson. Then Kansas polishes it off nicely, and is uhm, AAU!

Warren and BIG been transparent, while not much from the target schools. Makes one wonder if the emails the PAC HQ should be collecting aren’t from the Big 12!

What percentage gain do the 20 school P2s get on base pay from new postseason compared to stopping at 16? Likely 9 digits imo, and far more then the shortfall in Oregon’s BIG valuation. It’s not like an Oregon-Ohio St game doesn’t have potential to draw all those rust belt TVs at a rate higher than most BiG-BIG action

It all depends upon how many playoff slots. With 8 to 12 twenty could be the number. At 16 likely twenty-four. I heard an estimate that 16 could be worth 6 billion with network take of 3 billion split 2 ways.

(08-23-2022 09:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 09:53 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  The B1G moves at it's own pace. I'm not convinced they are in a rush to add anyone at this time. Oregon and Washington will be there 6 weeks from now, 6 months from now 6 years from now. I get that many want to know what the final outcome will be right away but we may not. IMO the BIG will live with the LA schools for awhile. I think they are looking south

I have thought all along that the B1G might want to attract SEC schools, especially if it is clear one they are going to make more money. I am not sure that is clear, but it is IMO likely.

IMO, if the SEC or the B1G assumes that the other behemoth has no designs on their schools, they are being foolish.

Problem is, even if some SEC schools might want to join the B1G, I believe the SEC also has a GOR that extends to 2034 or whatever as well.

Is this serious?

Fox/BIG have to tread carefully even with regards to ACC schools.

The BIG/Fox is a ticked off ESPN away from being marginalized in a battle of attrition. More USFL model than the NFL model as hoped.

ESPN can still consolidate schools to get hegemony on both revenue sports. The best of ACC football and basketball to SEC, KU to SEC, everyone else backfilling ACC, then ND in 2025, and ESPN’s postseasons are determining the national champions.

OSU and USC start a rush out the door.

(08-23-2022 10:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 10:03 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 09:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 09:40 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 08:44 PM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  Yes! Big Ten and SEC don’t like leaks and if I had to guess it’s all coming from Oregon camp.

They don’t??

The BIG has been flaming this at nearly every turn. A&M leaked OU/Ut (intentionally)

Warren has had several opportunities to shut this down, and he instead doesn’t even sidestep. It even being leaked that Oregon, UW, Cal, Stanford, FSU , Miami were targets.

Raiding the PAC 12, it was like Zach Mayo in Officer and a Gentleman screaming "I got nowhere else to go!" The PAC 12 was the obvious target and the schools all mentioned were among the PAC's top 6 revenue producers excluding Cal. Arizona State was not AAU as #5. And if they wanted in Big States Florida had possibly the most acceptable. It's like reading a cat's mind, all you have to do is observe what it is moving and chirping in front of them, and FSU, Clemson, and Miami have been chirping and South Carolina is a small state and Clemson harder to justify so hello!

Duke, UNC, UVa, and Ga Tech are AAU so already on the menu.

All the SEC has to do is take the 4 AAU's, Miami and FSU and Clemson. Then Kansas polishes it off nicely, and is uhm, AAU!

Warren and BIG been transparent, while not much from the target schools. Makes one wonder if the emails the PAC HQ should be collecting aren’t from the Big 12!

What percentage gain do the 20 school P2s get on base pay from new postseason compared to stopping at 16? Likely 9 digits imo, and far more then the shortfall in Oregon’s BIG valuation. It’s not like an Oregon-Ohio St game doesn’t have potential to draw all those rust belt TVs at a rate higher than most BiG-BIG action

It all depends upon how many playoff slots. With 8 to 12 twenty could be the number. At 16 likely twenty-four. I heard an estimate that 16 could be worth 6 billion with network take of 3 billion split 2 ways.

$$$$$$

That's a lot of cheddar.

(08-23-2022 10:32 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 09:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 09:53 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  The B1G moves at it's own pace. I'm not convinced they are in a rush to add anyone at this time. Oregon and Washington will be there 6 weeks from now, 6 months from now 6 years from now. I get that many want to know what the final outcome will be right away but we may not. IMO the BIG will live with the LA schools for awhile. I think they are looking south

I have thought all along that the B1G might want to attract SEC schools, especially if it is clear one they are going to make more money. I am not sure that is clear, but it is IMO likely.

IMO, if the SEC or the B1G assumes that the other behemoth has no designs on their schools, they are being foolish.

Problem is, even if some SEC schools might want to join the B1G, I believe the SEC also has a GOR that extends to 2034 or whatever as well.

Is this serious?

Fox/BIG have to tread carefully even with regards to ACC schools.

The BIG/Fox is a ticked off ESPN away from being marginalized in a battle of attrition. More USFL model than the NFL model as hoped.

ESPN can still consolidate schools to get hegemony on both revenue sports. The best of ACC football and basketball to SEC, KU to SEC, everyone else backfilling ACC, then ND in 2025, and ESPN’s postseasons are determining the national champions.

OSU and USC start a rush out the door.

ESPN isn't burying anyone, they have a whole lot of competitors on the Network side to worry about, and the most dangerous of them have a whole lot deeper pockets than Disney. It will be harder, not easier, for ESPN to have as many Conference tie-ins in 2032 as they have in 2022. Not impossible, but if the current trends continue and the CFP ends up as expensive as predicted it would certainly be more costly.

(08-23-2022 05:23 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 05:15 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  When you listen to the entire interview linked in the tweet, it becomes very clear to me that Cal, Stanford, Oregon and Washington will all be members of the Big Ten in August 2024.

Then the only question becomes how soon will the four corners schools join the Big 12 and ultimately OSU and WSU be relegated to the MWC?

If this scenario plays out, IMHO, the big winner is Fox.

Then with all of FBS moving under CFP management outside of the NCAA by 2026.

B1G 20
XII 18 (they may throw all 6 a life line)
SEC 16
ACC 14/15 w/ND
AAC 14
SBC 14
MWC 12
MAC 12
CUSA 9

What is stopping the CFP from requiring 14 member conferences at that point? MWC adds UTEP/NMSU and MAC goes for WKU/MT. CUSA is effectively done with only 5 members remaining.

P4 and G4 if that happens IMO. 6+10 playoff format potentially.

This is my thought exactly. 6+10 with 2 spots for the G4. But effectively, every champion makes it. What they’d do is just have the top 4 G4 “play-in” on conference championship Saturday. They can either decide it just in regular season record or the G4 plays their conference championship on thanksgiving.

It would give a bit of a spotlight to those teams as well!

(08-23-2022 11:57 PM)SirSaint09 Wrote:  This is my thought exactly. 6+10 with 2 spots for the G4. ...

Of course, if the PAC becomes the two orphans taking their pick from the MWC, then the MWC leftovers finding a place in Conference USA could well ensure that conference hangs onto its spot. It is, after all, not the number that creates the value for the SP2 media contracts, but the media values of the schools making up that number, so it wouldn't be surprising if the Go6 end up at a smaller average size than the P4.

But if there is going to be a P4 made up of a Super Power 2 and a Major Power 2, and a Go6, it's not entirely clear to me why the 6+6 wouldn't mutate into a 5+7. The four Quarterfinal Byes for the top four Champions plus one play in spot for the best Go6 champion (typically a visitor to the highest ranked at large school), seems to fit a P4 + Go6 landscape.

(08-23-2022 11:18 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 10:32 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 09:59 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-23-2022 09:53 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  The B1G moves at it's own pace. I'm not convinced they are in a rush to add anyone at this time. Oregon and Washington will be there 6 weeks from now, 6 months from now 6 years from now. I get that many want to know what the final outcome will be right away but we may not. IMO the BIG will live with the LA schools for awhile. I think they are looking south

I have thought all along that the B1G might want to attract SEC schools, especially if it is clear one they are going to make more money. I am not sure that is clear, but it is IMO likely.

IMO, if the SEC or the B1G assumes that the other behemoth has no designs on their schools, they are being foolish.

Problem is, even if some SEC schools might want to join the B1G, I believe the SEC also has a GOR that extends to 2034 or whatever as well.

Is this serious?

Fox/BIG have to tread carefully even with regards to ACC schools.

The BIG/Fox is a ticked off ESPN away from being marginalized in a battle of attrition. More USFL model than the NFL model as hoped.

ESPN can still consolidate schools to get hegemony on both revenue sports. The best of ACC football and basketball to SEC, KU to SEC, everyone else backfilling ACC, then ND in 2025, and ESPN’s postseasons are determining the national champions.

OSU and USC start a rush out the door.

ESPN isn't burying anyone, they have a whole lot of competitors on the Network side to worry about, and the most dangerous of them have a whole lot deeper pockets than Disney. It will be harder, not easier, for ESPN to have as many Conference tie-ins in 2032 as they have in 2022. Not impossible, but if the current trends continue and the CFP ends up as expensive as predicted it would certainly be more costly.

You’re thinking one move at a time. And again missing the point.

The point is odds of a P2-P2 moves is hugely bias towards BIG to SEC. although unlikely

Enterprise value/defense of market goes up for Disney, from gaining hegemony on both revenue sports. They can then start own more exclusive postseason, or sell ESPN.

Long term, if you’re worried about new entrants, you want fewer conferences and consolidation of brands down to 48 or less. Hence what we have going on. ESPN currently needs FOX and OTAs to help in that lockdown. But if they had Ohio st, USC, Michigan, OSU because those wanted to legitimize themselves in the top postseason?

Further consolidation is a corporate play by Disney to maximize macro values and hedge some future risk

Some SEC will be jumping ship as well to the Big

(08-24-2022 07:19 AM)Fanofreason Wrote:  Some SEC will be jumping ship as well to the Big

I am trying to be objective and have an open mind as I post this, but I really don't see it. To give you an idea of what the SEC is like here, think about how popular the NFL is where you are. Do you see the Cincinnati Bengals wanting to pack up and move to Birmingham, where they can be #3 to Auburn and Alabama?? I don't. Do you see the Minnesota Vikings wanting to move to Jackson, MS, where they can be #3 to Ole Miss & Mississippi State?? Nope. It works the same way in reverse when you talk about SEC teams going to the B1G. It just doesn't make any sense.

Fla UGa UT A&M (plus the ACC schools discussed ad naseum) will always be B1G targets. I get that no one will take it seriously now, but we know the hot girls are going to shop themselves around for life. Foolish and naïve to believe otherwise. Schools can come up with any excuse in the book to abandon century old rivalries. Nothing should surprise any of us.

I don't think a move like that will happen under the B1G umbrella though. We will see schools and football programs funded by private equity to move to a full professional/minor league model, and the "brands" that want to make the move up to this Super League will have every opportunity to do so, just as we've seen with LIV (as I mentioned in another thread).