(08-10-2022 02:38 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: I do agree with Quo (and some others) that pollsters tend to overrate (at least somewhat) G5 programs with strong records and questionable schedules — and perhaps even to the detriment of P5 programs with average records and demanding records.
And I am 100 percent fine with that.
It may be the case that there is an implicit/psychological "threshold" of 10 wins that helps put a team into the top 25, much like there used to be (and may still be, to some extent) an implicit threshold of 20 wins that once helped teams earn NCAA bids. Notably,
every P5 team that won 10+ games ended up in the final top 25 last season.
To the extent that it's slightly easier for some non-P5 teams to win 10 games, that could give them a boost with some poll voters. However,
5 of the 11 non-P5 schools that won 10+ games last season didn't make it into the final AP top 25, proving that simply winning 10+ games wasn't enough to get a non-P5 team into the final top 25.
. . . . . . . . . . . . .
Let's look at the marginal non-P5 top 25 teams - - those that were ranked #24th and #25th:
Q: Why did #24 Utah State end up in the final AP Top 25?
A:
Utah State beat (P5) Washington State, (P5) Oregon State, (10-3) Air Force, and (12-2) SDSU in the MWC championship game, and finished with a 2-0 record vs. P5 teams.
Q: Why did #25 SDSU end up in the final AP Top 25?
A:
SDSU beat (#12; 10-4) Utah, (P5) Arizona, (10-3) Air Force, and (12-2) UTSA, and finished with a 2-0 record vs. P5 teams.
. . . . . . . . . . . . .
Now, consider #23 (10-4) Iowa's record:
Sat 01-01 vs. (10-3) Kentucky L
Sat 12-04 vs (12-2) Michigan L
Fri 11-26 at Nebraska (3-9) W
Sat 11-20 Illinois (5-7) W
Sat 11-13 Minnesota (9-4) W
Sat 11-06 at Northwestern (3-9) W
Sat 10-30 at Wisconsin (9-4) L
Sat 10-16 Purdue (9-4) L
Sat 10-09 Penn St (7-6) W
Fri 10-01 at Maryland (7-6) W
Sat 09-25 Colorado St (3-9) W
Sat 09-18 Kent (7-7) W
Sat 09-11 at Iowa St (7-6) W
Sat 09-04 Indiana (2-10) W
In summary,
Iowa's major accomplishments in 2021 were that they beat one 9-4 team and two 7-6 teams, yet Iowa ended up being ranked ahead of Utah State and SDSU in the final AP top 25.
This example illustrates the point that, while it's possible there may be some "double digit win" bias operating in favor of certain non-P5 teams, there may also be some "pro-P5" bias operating in favor of certain P5 teams, such as Iowa in 2021.
.