(07-05-2022 01:15 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  2. Grant of Rights as a device to keep conferences intact for as long as the GOR runs

So ... the GoR that is keeping Texas and Oklahoma in the Big XII for a couple of more seasons, is NOT preventing Clemson, Notre Dame, Florida State and Miami from finding a way to buy out of a GoR with 14 more years on it.

Uh ... do wut now?

Fixed it for ya. The GOR is absolutley keeping UT and OU in the Big 12 until it expires on June 30, 2025. (They *might* negotiate a one-year-early exit, but I doubt it.)

Similarly, the ACC GOR locks Clemson and Florida State in the ACC until June 30 2036. So in 2030 or 31 or 32, they'll can start seriously examining their post-ACC futures.

Notre Dame is in a different spot, because their most valuable TV properties aren't covered by the ACC Grant of Rights. If Notre Dame and the ACC divorce and Notre Dame joins the Big Ten, the GOR just means that Notre Dame home basketball (and other nonrevenue sport) games are still ESPN property via the ACC TV contract. So Indiana @ Notre Dame mens basketball would be on ESPN, with Greensboro cashing checks for those TV rights.

Quote:3. Future TV Deal

The Big XII loses it's two most valuable pieces to TV in Texas and Oklahoma, and their TV contract is supposed to go UP??

Sure.

A lot of time has passed since the main Big 12 - ESPN - Fox deals were done in 2010, 2013, 2015 or so. So it's possible that the market value of an OUT-less Big 12 in 2025 is greater than the market value of the 10-team 2013-22 Big 10 in 2015 or so compounded with annual increases.

Also very possible that the New Big 12 contract is worth less than the final year of the old Big 12 contract, because of the lack of 4M+ game inventory.

(07-06-2022 08:03 AM)gosports1 Wrote:  I wouldn't underestimate the ACC. I have no doubt they have contacted ESPN to discuss a what if situation and what impact it would have on their contract or negotiating a new one, I would not be surprised if they have something up their sleeve and make a move on the B12. Unlikely to get B1G or SEC money but might be enough to entice current members to stick around, especially if B1G decides it isn't worth going beyond 16 without ND. Maybe I missed it, but does anyone have actual numbers for how much the SEC would gain if they brought Clemson and FSU on board?

This.

The ACC is in position to poach some B12 schools IF the ESPN is willing to pay for it.

No

(07-05-2022 01:22 PM)Jericho Wrote:  

(07-05-2022 01:15 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  3 questions come to mind after reading this thread ....

1. Conference "Stability"

The ACC is "unstable"?
Maryland bolted

The Big XII is "stable"?
Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma all bolted or have their bags packed and one foot out the door.


2. Grant of Rights as a device to keep conferences intact

So ... the GoR that is keeping Texas and Oklahoma in the Big XII for a couple of more seasons, is NOT preventing Clemson, Notre Dame, Florida State and Miami from finding a way to buy out of a GoR with 14 more years on it.

Uh ... do wut now?


3. Future TV Deal

The Big XII loses it's two most valuable pieces to TV in Texas and Oklahoma, and their TV contract is supposed to go UP??

Sure.





OK ... carry on.

Pretty much this. So much of what I read on this forum doesn't seem to pass the smell test. Not sure why any major school would want to leave the PAC or the ACC for the Big 12. Half the Big 12 conference is made up of schools none of the other power conferences wanted. The other half is largely Iowa State and Kansas State. The "best" the Big 12 offers are schools like Oklahoma State and Kansas. Suddenly, they're supposed to be the blue bloods of this next great conference? It would seem far easier for the remaining Pac schools to cherry pick off any valuable properties of the Big 12 (if there are any) and not be tied down with the rest of the dead weight of the conference.

Depends on what schools are hearing. I promise some schools have been told they have zero shot at the B1G or SEC. The same schools who are in the PAC have no chance of getting into the ACC. If two or more schools in the PAC are still viewed as having an outside shot at the big two, the schools on the outs are going to shop around. No one wants to be the last man standing in the PAC, stuck with WSU and OSU, backfilling with MWC schools and relegated to G5 status.

There are not a lot of schools left who have any value. Notre Dame, UNC are the top 2. Who else adds any real value to the B1G or SEC, that is the question that needs to be answered and my guess is once the answer is clear, a lot of movement will take place as schools push to stay relevant.

(07-06-2022 12:59 PM)jacksfan29! Wrote:  There are not a lot of schools left who have any value. Notre Dame, UNC are the top 2. Who else adds any real value to the B1G or SEC, that is the question that needs to be answered and my guess is once the answer is clear, a lot of movement will take place as schools push to stay relevant.

From an SEC perspective let's see:
Clemson-FSU (No truer SEC like schools NOT in the SEC. Competes for 1-2 pecking order in their states)
UVA-VT (Corner's a vast majority of the VA market leaving the B1G w/o AAU options)
UNC-Duke (Corner's a vast majority of the NC market leaving the B1G w/o AAU options)
WV-Pitt-Cincy (Takes the SEC into B1G territory as state market teams 1-2-2)
Kansas (AAU school completes the NW corner, historic for OK, MO, & Basketball power)

There's 10, with Pitt and Cincy being the two least likely choices. The additional 8 (WV, UVA, VT, UNC, Duke, Clemson, FSU, Kansas) would get the SEC to 24 and would bolster the football and basketball pedigree exponentially.

As for the B1G, the AAU status limits their options, but the top PAC 7(Cal, Stanford, WA, OR, AZ, UT, CO) plus ND make the most sense BY FAR and also gets them to 24.
Then the 48 can do as they wish and most states are satisfied with P2 representation.