(05-22-2022 03:57 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(05-22-2022 02:50 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(05-22-2022 10:42 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  The poll results make it clear that a lot of readers agree that the gap between the G5 and the P5 has been narrowing - - and not just to a trivial degree.

That is not a scientific poll. There is no factual evidence to support that conclusion. G5 schools are better off than they were in the past, with more television exposure and increased revenue. But they are not close to P5 schools in TV exposure or revenue, and they get crushed in recruiting, which is why the P5 schools easily send the most players to the NFL.

Tradition and history are a big part of college football. The G5 schools don't have the kind of tradition and history that the P5 schools have. They don't have the traditional rivalries that exist among power conferences schools, such as:
Michigan-Ohio State
Alabama-Auburn
USC-Notre Dame
Oklahoma-Texas
Florida-Georgia
UCLA-USC
Miami-Florida State
Florida-Florida State
Cal-Stanford
Mississippi State-Ole Miss
Alabama-LSU
Michigan State-Michigan

That is just a dozen. There are at least two dozen more I could add to the list among P5 schools. Among G5 schools, there is Army-Navy. The lack of historic rivalries among the G5 schools is just one more thing that holds back G5 schools.

Your one of those delightful fellows who sit with your arms folded and go “Eh, Cincinnati went undefeated but they’d be 1-7 if they played a PAC12 schedule.” Of course this would be ignoring the fact the PAC12 lost to two FCS teams last year, went 0-5 against BYU and had a losing record to the MWC.

You keep bringing up the draft picks. This is interesting, as you are a UCLA fan, the Bruins and Arizona State had 10 NFL draft picks between them and both got pummeled by a Utah team that had one selection. It is often an indicator of success but the number of draft selections is not the end all be all to determine whether a program is good or not.

As to tv ratings, there is definitely a separation at the top, but a lot of the difference in the gap between a middling or lower P5 school and a G5 school is platform and when the game is broadcasted. If your game is on ESPN2 it is going to always out perform a game on ESPN U. An ABC game is going to do better than a game on ESPN. There are a number of schools in the P5 who are just not a draw so most of their games relegated to the Tier 3 or streaming option unless they are playing the right game (Kansas v Texas, Clemson v Wake Forest, Rutgers v Ohio State, Vanderbilt v Alabama, etc).

LOL! I am actually kind of boring. I never brought up Cincinnati or the Pac-12 and they were not the subject of this thread. Cincinnati was great last season, and the Pac-12 overall had a terrible football season, with a few exceptions. But that is irrelevant to the subject of this thread.

UCLA was not good enough defensively to beat Utah on the road and they were missing their starting QB. UCLA had a good season at 8-4, had six players drafted and whacked LSU, a team with ten players drafted. Utah had one player drafted and he happened to be the Defensive Player of the Year in the Pac-12 and a first-round pick. Utah returns 13 starters from last year's team, including All-conference players at quarterback, tight end, running back, and cornerback. Utah is ranked 6th in ESPN's way-too-early 2022 football poll, which is a reflection of the talent they are bringing back. USC is ranked 4th.

If the G5 schools want to close the gap with the P5 schools, they need a guaranteed spot in the playoffs. A 5+1+2 or a 5+1+6 or a 6+6 playoff system. That can't close the gap without being a regular part of the playoffs, which might help recruiting. Cincinnati had a freakishly good season. Cincinnati had not had a first-round pick since 1971, a streak that ended with Sauce Gardner. To have seven first-team All-AAC picks on defense was amazing and a reflection of how good their defense was. The bad news is that all seven are gone, with six being drafted and one signing with the Saints as an undrafted free agent. A typical CFB playoff team just reloads the next season with four and five-star talent. Cincinnati cannot do that. They need Fickell to develop a bunch of three-star players into stars and future NFL players, like he just did. That is not an easy task.

(05-21-2022 08:41 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 09:08 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 08:02 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 07:36 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Let's look at the MC conference rankings for P5 and G5 for 2021 and 2016. Averages are approximate, used round numbers.

2016

P5 ..... average 46 .......... range 40-52

G5 .... average 83 ........... range 68 - 94


2021

P5 ..... average 50 ......... range 40-68
G5 .... average 80 ........ range 68-92


So what do we see? Yes, there has been some tightening up. The P5-G5 spread was 37 MC points in 2016, it was 30 MC points in 2021.

Still, I'm not sure this is that much of a change. We're still talking 30 points here.

Now what accounts for that? The ranges tell an interesting story. The best P5 and best G5 conferences are basically unchanged. The top P5 was a 40 in 2016, and in 2021. The best G5 was a 68 in 2016 and a 68 in 2021. Also, the G5 bottom hasn't moved much, improved slightly from 94 in 2016 to 92 in 2021.

The big difference is that the P5 bottom has fallen. Last year, the P5 had two conferences, at 58 and 68, well below the bottom of their 2016 range.

Also, the G5 middle has improved. In 2016, the second-place G5 conference was 10 points below the leader, at 78. In 2021, the second-place G5 conference was only a point behind, at 69.

The main thing though seems to be the dropping of the P5 bottom.

2016: 83-46=37 point gap

2021: 80-50=30 point gap

difference: 7 point reduction in the size of the gap

A 7 point drop=7/37 = 18.9% reduction

That's nearly a 20% shrinkage of the gap.

Whether one considers a 20% shrinkage in the gap over a 5 year period a large or small amount of shrinkage depends on one's perspective, but if the gap were to continue shrinking at that same 18.9% pace every five years going forward, the gap between the P5 and the G5 would be completely eliminated in 25 years.

G5 is going to be taking a step back with UC, UH and UCF joining the P5. Not to mention the regional recruiting power of BYU now in a P5.

That certainly seems likely, at least for a couple of years, but the experience of the MWC after TCU & Utah suggests that those effects might be relatively temporary.

For example, the Mountain West Conference took a hit in 2011/2012, when three of their best FB/MBB schools (TCU, Utah, & BYU) departed, but it didn't take them too long to bounce back after they responded by adding BSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Utah St., SJSU, & Hawaii (FB).

Little has been said about the six MWC additions, but consider their FB accomplishments over the decade since the MWC realignment (2012-2021):

Boise: 6 10+ win seasons (7 bowls (5-2); finished 5 seasons in the AP Top 25.
Utah St.: 4 10+ win FB seasons (8 bowl games (6-2) )
Fresno: 4 10+ win FB seasons (6 bowl games); finished 2018 in the AP Top 25.
Hawaii: Won 10 FB games in 2019 (4 bowl games (3-1) )
San Jose St.: Went 7-1 (.875) in 2020; finished 2020 in the AP Top 25.
Nevada: 6 bowl games between 2012 & 2021.

In addition, some of the MWC remainers bounced back surprisingly well after TCU, BYU, and Utah departed, for example:

Air Force: 4 10+ win FB seasons (6 bowl games (5-1) )
San Diego St.: 5 10+ win FB seasons (9 bowls); 2 finishes in the AP top 25.

(05-19-2022 09:08 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  The MWC has 1 more P5 to recruit against and the AAC has 3 more P5s.

True, but that may not make a huge difference, since the MWC already had to recruit against BYU, and the AAC already had to recruit against UC, UCF, & UH, which were already recruiting - in recent years - as if they were P5 programs (with the exception of UCF basketball).

Moreover, any potential recruiting concerns may be largely offset by the addition of four new recruiting regions (Miami/Ft.L/WPB, northern Alabama (UAB), Central N.C. (UNCC), Central Texas (UTSA), plus the Houston area, which will still be represented by an AAC school, and an enhanced presence in metro Dallas/FW.

It may be possible that the AAC will be able to respond to the loss of UC, UCF, and UH nearly as effectively as the MWC responded to the loss of TCU, Utah, and BYU.

.

I think you're downplaying how big of a hit that was to the MWC. Especially since they had just added Boise St. at the time and had a very strong argument of being a stronger conference than the Big East. It's now a decade later and it still isn't at the same level they were back then and they replaced TCU, BYU, and Utah with much stronger schools than the AAC just replaced UC, UCF and UH.

(05-22-2022 10:24 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(05-22-2022 03:57 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(05-22-2022 02:50 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(05-22-2022 10:42 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  The poll results make it clear that a lot of readers agree that the gap between the G5 and the P5 has been narrowing - - and not just to a trivial degree.

That is not a scientific poll. There is no factual evidence to support that conclusion. G5 schools are better off than they were in the past, with more television exposure and increased revenue. But they are not close to P5 schools in TV exposure or revenue, and they get crushed in recruiting, which is why the P5 schools easily send the most players to the NFL.

Tradition and history are a big part of college football. The G5 schools don't have the kind of tradition and history that the P5 schools have. They don't have the traditional rivalries that exist among power conferences schools, such as:
Michigan-Ohio State
Alabama-Auburn
USC-Notre Dame
Oklahoma-Texas
Florida-Georgia
UCLA-USC
Miami-Florida State
Florida-Florida State
Cal-Stanford
Mississippi State-Ole Miss
Alabama-LSU
Michigan State-Michigan

That is just a dozen. There are at least two dozen more I could add to the list among P5 schools. Among G5 schools, there is Army-Navy. The lack of historic rivalries among the G5 schools is just one more thing that holds back G5 schools.

Your one of those delightful fellows who sit with your arms folded and go “Eh, Cincinnati went undefeated but they’d be 1-7 if they played a PAC12 schedule.” Of course this would be ignoring the fact the PAC12 lost to two FCS teams last year, went 0-5 against BYU and had a losing record to the MWC.

You keep bringing up the draft picks. This is interesting, as you are a UCLA fan, the Bruins and Arizona State had 10 NFL draft picks between them and both got pummeled by a Utah team that had one selection. It is often an indicator of success but the number of draft selections is not the end all be all to determine whether a program is good or not.

As to tv ratings, there is definitely a separation at the top, but a lot of the difference in the gap between a middling or lower P5 school and a G5 school is platform and when the game is broadcasted. If your game is on ESPN2 it is going to always out perform a game on ESPN U. An ABC game is going to do better than a game on ESPN. There are a number of schools in the P5 who are just not a draw so most of their games relegated to the Tier 3 or streaming option unless they are playing the right game (Kansas v Texas, Clemson v Wake Forest, Rutgers v Ohio State, Vanderbilt v Alabama, etc).

LOL! I am actually kind of boring. I never brought up Cincinnati or the Pac-12 and they were not the subject of this thread. Cincinnati was great last season, and the Pac-12 overall had a terrible football season, with a few exceptions. But that is irrelevant to the subject of this thread.

UCLA was not good enough defensively to beat Utah on the road and they were missing their starting QB. UCLA had a good season at 8-4, had six players drafted and whacked LSU, a team with ten players drafted. Utah had one player drafted and he happened to be the Defensive Player of the Year in the Pac-12 and a first-round pick. Utah returns 13 starters from last year's team, including All-conference players at quarterback, tight end, running back, and cornerback. Utah is ranked 6th in ESPN's way-too-early 2022 football poll, which is a reflection of the talent they are bringing back. USC is ranked 4th.

If the G5 schools want to close the gap with the P5 schools, they need a guaranteed spot in the playoffs. A 5+1+2 or a 5+1+6 or a 6+6 playoff system. That can't close the gap without being a regular part of the playoffs, which might help recruiting. Cincinnati had a freakishly good season. Cincinnati had not had a first-round pick since 1971, a streak that ended with Sauce Gardner. To have seven first-team All-AAC picks on defense was amazing and a reflection of how good their defense was. The bad news is that all seven are gone, with six being drafted and one signing with the Saints as an undrafted free agent. A typical CFB playoff team just reloads the next season with four and five-star talent. Cincinnati cannot do that. They need Fickell to develop a bunch of three-star players into stars and future NFL players, like he just did. That is not an easy task.

I think you'll be surprised at how good Cincinnati will be this year. Fickell has been recruiting at P5 levels for the past 4+ years. And now with the jump to the Big 12, it is continuing to improve. We have signed 2 4star guys from the portal in the last 6 weeks. Very few guys from those top recruiting classes have left the program via the portal. I realistically think the will go 11-1 or 12-0 this coming season, depending how they do against Arkansas week 1.

(05-23-2022 03:24 AM)AztecNation Wrote:  

(05-21-2022 08:41 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 09:08 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 08:02 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 07:36 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Let's look at the MC conference rankings for P5 and G5 for 2021 and 2016. Averages are approximate, used round numbers.

2016

P5 ..... average 46 .......... range 40-52

G5 .... average 83 ........... range 68 - 94


2021

P5 ..... average 50 ......... range 40-68
G5 .... average 80 ........ range 68-92


So what do we see? Yes, there has been some tightening up. The P5-G5 spread was 37 MC points in 2016, it was 30 MC points in 2021.

Still, I'm not sure this is that much of a change. We're still talking 30 points here.

Now what accounts for that? The ranges tell an interesting story. The best P5 and best G5 conferences are basically unchanged. The top P5 was a 40 in 2016, and in 2021. The best G5 was a 68 in 2016 and a 68 in 2021. Also, the G5 bottom hasn't moved much, improved slightly from 94 in 2016 to 92 in 2021.

The big difference is that the P5 bottom has fallen. Last year, the P5 had two conferences, at 58 and 68, well below the bottom of their 2016 range.

Also, the G5 middle has improved. In 2016, the second-place G5 conference was 10 points below the leader, at 78. In 2021, the second-place G5 conference was only a point behind, at 69.

The main thing though seems to be the dropping of the P5 bottom.

2016: 83-46=37 point gap

2021: 80-50=30 point gap

difference: 7 point reduction in the size of the gap

A 7 point drop=7/37 = 18.9% reduction

That's nearly a 20% shrinkage of the gap.

Whether one considers a 20% shrinkage in the gap over a 5 year period a large or small amount of shrinkage depends on one's perspective, but if the gap were to continue shrinking at that same 18.9% pace every five years going forward, the gap between the P5 and the G5 would be completely eliminated in 25 years.

G5 is going to be taking a step back with UC, UH and UCF joining the P5. Not to mention the regional recruiting power of BYU now in a P5.

That certainly seems likely, at least for a couple of years, but the experience of the MWC after TCU & Utah suggests that those effects might be relatively temporary.

For example, the Mountain West Conference took a hit in 2011/2012, when three of their best FB/MBB schools (TCU, Utah, & BYU) departed, but it didn't take them too long to bounce back after they responded by adding BSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Utah St., SJSU, & Hawaii (FB).

Little has been said about the six MWC additions, but consider their FB accomplishments over the decade since the MWC realignment (2012-2021):

Boise: 6 10+ win seasons (7 bowls (5-2); finished 5 seasons in the AP Top 25.
Utah St.: 4 10+ win FB seasons (8 bowl games (6-2) )
Fresno: 4 10+ win FB seasons (6 bowl games); finished 2018 in the AP Top 25.
Hawaii: Won 10 FB games in 2019 (4 bowl games (3-1) )
San Jose St.: Went 7-1 (.875) in 2020; finished 2020 in the AP Top 25.
Nevada: 6 bowl games between 2012 & 2021.

In addition, some of the MWC remainers bounced back surprisingly well after TCU, BYU, and Utah departed, for example:

Air Force: 4 10+ win FB seasons (6 bowl games (5-1) )
San Diego St.: 5 10+ win FB seasons (9 bowls); 2 finishes in the AP top 25.

(05-19-2022 09:08 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  The MWC has 1 more P5 to recruit against and the AAC has 3 more P5s.

True, but that may not make a huge difference, since the MWC already had to recruit against BYU, and the AAC already had to recruit against UC, UCF, & UH, which were already recruiting - in recent years - as if they were P5 programs (with the exception of UCF basketball).

Moreover, any potential recruiting concerns may be largely offset by the addition of four new recruiting regions (Miami/Ft.L/WPB, northern Alabama (UAB), Central N.C. (UNCC), Central Texas (UTSA), plus the Houston area, which will still be represented by an AAC school, and an enhanced presence in metro Dallas/FW.

It may be possible that the AAC will be able to respond to the loss of UC, UCF, and UH nearly as effectively as the MWC responded to the loss of TCU, Utah, and BYU.

.

I think you're downplaying how big of a hit that was to the MWC. Especially since they had just added Boise St. at the time and had a very strong argument of being a stronger conference than the Big East. It's now a decade later and it still isn't at the same level they were back then and they replaced TCU, BYU, and Utah with much stronger schools than the AAC just replaced UC, UCF and UH.

Yes, the MW took a big hit after TCU/BYU/Utah left. For example, in 2009, the MW's Massey rating was 60, in 2010 it was 62. They've never come close to that in their current configuration. They were never as good as the Big East (in 2009, the Big East was actually the #2 conference, behind only the SEC), but they were close enough to the bottom of the AQ leagues to merit talk of possible inclusion.

And as you say, they replaced those schools with much better schools than the AAC is adding.

Similarly, the AAC is lauded for how well it has done the past eight years, but it too has performed considerably below the level of its predecessor, the Big East. Adding all those CUSA schools, including good ones like Houston and UCF, didn't come close to making up for the loss of Pitt, WV, Louisville and Syracuse.

So if the new AAC is able to perform at about the same level as the current AAC, it will be significantly bucking the history of what has happened to the top non-AQ/G5 league when those leagues have lost teams to the Power/AQ leagues and have had to backfill from below.

(05-23-2022 06:16 AM)Edgebrookjeff Wrote:  

(05-22-2022 10:24 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(05-22-2022 03:57 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(05-22-2022 02:50 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(05-22-2022 10:42 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  The poll results make it clear that a lot of readers agree that the gap between the G5 and the P5 has been narrowing - - and not just to a trivial degree.

That is not a scientific poll. There is no factual evidence to support that conclusion. G5 schools are better off than they were in the past, with more television exposure and increased revenue. But they are not close to P5 schools in TV exposure or revenue, and they get crushed in recruiting, which is why the P5 schools easily send the most players to the NFL.

Tradition and history are a big part of college football. The G5 schools don't have the kind of tradition and history that the P5 schools have. They don't have the traditional rivalries that exist among power conferences schools, such as:
Michigan-Ohio State
Alabama-Auburn
USC-Notre Dame
Oklahoma-Texas
Florida-Georgia
UCLA-USC
Miami-Florida State
Florida-Florida State
Cal-Stanford
Mississippi State-Ole Miss
Alabama-LSU
Michigan State-Michigan

That is just a dozen. There are at least two dozen more I could add to the list among P5 schools. Among G5 schools, there is Army-Navy. The lack of historic rivalries among the G5 schools is just one more thing that holds back G5 schools.

Your one of those delightful fellows who sit with your arms folded and go “Eh, Cincinnati went undefeated but they’d be 1-7 if they played a PAC12 schedule.” Of course this would be ignoring the fact the PAC12 lost to two FCS teams last year, went 0-5 against BYU and had a losing record to the MWC.

You keep bringing up the draft picks. This is interesting, as you are a UCLA fan, the Bruins and Arizona State had 10 NFL draft picks between them and both got pummeled by a Utah team that had one selection. It is often an indicator of success but the number of draft selections is not the end all be all to determine whether a program is good or not.

As to tv ratings, there is definitely a separation at the top, but a lot of the difference in the gap between a middling or lower P5 school and a G5 school is platform and when the game is broadcasted. If your game is on ESPN2 it is going to always out perform a game on ESPN U. An ABC game is going to do better than a game on ESPN. There are a number of schools in the P5 who are just not a draw so most of their games relegated to the Tier 3 or streaming option unless they are playing the right game (Kansas v Texas, Clemson v Wake Forest, Rutgers v Ohio State, Vanderbilt v Alabama, etc).

LOL! I am actually kind of boring. I never brought up Cincinnati or the Pac-12 and they were not the subject of this thread. Cincinnati was great last season, and the Pac-12 overall had a terrible football season, with a few exceptions. But that is irrelevant to the subject of this thread.

UCLA was not good enough defensively to beat Utah on the road and they were missing their starting QB. UCLA had a good season at 8-4, had six players drafted and whacked LSU, a team with ten players drafted. Utah had one player drafted and he happened to be the Defensive Player of the Year in the Pac-12 and a first-round pick. Utah returns 13 starters from last year's team, including All-conference players at quarterback, tight end, running back, and cornerback. Utah is ranked 6th in ESPN's way-too-early 2022 football poll, which is a reflection of the talent they are bringing back. USC is ranked 4th.

If the G5 schools want to close the gap with the P5 schools, they need a guaranteed spot in the playoffs. A 5+1+2 or a 5+1+6 or a 6+6 playoff system. That can't close the gap without being a regular part of the playoffs, which might help recruiting. Cincinnati had a freakishly good season. Cincinnati had not had a first-round pick since 1971, a streak that ended with Sauce Gardner. To have seven first-team All-AAC picks on defense was amazing and a reflection of how good their defense was. The bad news is that all seven are gone, with six being drafted and one signing with the Saints as an undrafted free agent. A typical CFB playoff team just reloads the next season with four and five-star talent. Cincinnati cannot do that. They need Fickell to develop a bunch of three-star players into stars and future NFL players, like he just did. That is not an easy task.

I think you'll be surprised at how good Cincinnati will be this year. Fickell has been recruiting at P5 levels for the past 4+ years. And now with the jump to the Big 12, it is continuing to improve. We have signed 2 4star guys from the portal in the last 6 weeks. Very few guys from those top recruiting classes have left the program via the portal. I realistically think the will go 11-1 or 12-0 this coming season, depending how they do against Arkansas week 1.

I agree Cincy is likely to win a bunch of games this year, I will be surprised if it isn't double-digit wins again. but it's going to be hard to tell how good Cincy is, because the schedule looks really soft. The OOC schedule is turrible, with the possible exception of Arkansas and the AAC schedule looks bad too.

If Cincy beats Arkansas, and then Arkansas has a good year in the SEC, like last year, then that would be a great benchmark to judge Cincy. But if they are mediocre, then Cincy will likely lack any such benchmarks.

(05-23-2022 03:24 AM)AztecNation Wrote:  

(05-21-2022 08:41 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 09:08 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 08:02 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 07:36 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Let's look at the MC conference rankings for P5 and G5 for 2021 and 2016. Averages are approximate, used round numbers.

2016

P5 ..... average 46 .......... range 40-52

G5 .... average 83 ........... range 68 - 94


2021

P5 ..... average 50 ......... range 40-68
G5 .... average 80 ........ range 68-92


So what do we see? Yes, there has been some tightening up. The P5-G5 spread was 37 MC points in 2016, it was 30 MC points in 2021.

Still, I'm not sure this is that much of a change. We're still talking 30 points here.

Now what accounts for that? The ranges tell an interesting story. The best P5 and best G5 conferences are basically unchanged. The top P5 was a 40 in 2016, and in 2021. The best G5 was a 68 in 2016 and a 68 in 2021. Also, the G5 bottom hasn't moved much, improved slightly from 94 in 2016 to 92 in 2021.

The big difference is that the P5 bottom has fallen. Last year, the P5 had two conferences, at 58 and 68, well below the bottom of their 2016 range.

Also, the G5 middle has improved. In 2016, the second-place G5 conference was 10 points below the leader, at 78. In 2021, the second-place G5 conference was only a point behind, at 69.

The main thing though seems to be the dropping of the P5 bottom.

2016: 83-46=37 point gap

2021: 80-50=30 point gap

difference: 7 point reduction in the size of the gap

A 7 point drop=7/37 = 18.9% reduction

That's nearly a 20% shrinkage of the gap.

Whether one considers a 20% shrinkage in the gap over a 5 year period a large or small amount of shrinkage depends on one's perspective, but if the gap were to continue shrinking at that same 18.9% pace every five years going forward, the gap between the P5 and the G5 would be completely eliminated in 25 years.

G5 is going to be taking a step back with UC, UH and UCF joining the P5. Not to mention the regional recruiting power of BYU now in a P5.

That certainly seems likely, at least for a couple of years, but the experience of the MWC after TCU & Utah suggests that those effects might be relatively temporary.

For example, the Mountain West Conference took a hit in 2011/2012, when three of their best FB/MBB schools (TCU, Utah, & BYU) departed, but it didn't take them too long to bounce back after they responded by adding BSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Utah St., SJSU, & Hawaii (FB).

Little has been said about the six MWC additions, but consider their FB accomplishments over the decade since the MWC realignment (2012-2021):

Boise: 6 10+ win seasons (7 bowls (5-2); finished 5 seasons in the AP Top 25.
Utah St.: 4 10+ win FB seasons (8 bowl games (6-2) )
Fresno: 4 10+ win FB seasons (6 bowl games); finished 2018 in the AP Top 25.
Hawaii: Won 10 FB games in 2019 (4 bowl games (3-1) )
San Jose St.: Went 7-1 (.875) in 2020; finished 2020 in the AP Top 25.
Nevada: 6 bowl games between 2012 & 2021.

In addition, some of the MWC remainers bounced back surprisingly well after TCU, BYU, and Utah departed, for example:

Air Force: 4 10+ win FB seasons (6 bowl games (5-1) )
San Diego St.: 5 10+ win FB seasons (9 bowls); 2 finishes in the AP top 25.

(05-19-2022 09:08 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  The MWC has 1 more P5 to recruit against and the AAC has 3 more P5s.

True, but that may not make a huge difference, since the MWC already had to recruit against BYU, and the AAC already had to recruit against UC, UCF, & UH, which were already recruiting - in recent years - as if they were P5 programs (with the exception of UCF basketball).

Moreover, any potential recruiting concerns may be largely offset by the addition of four new recruiting regions (Miami/Ft.L/WPB, northern Alabama (UAB), Central N.C. (UNCC), Central Texas (UTSA), plus the Houston area, which will still be represented by an AAC school, and an enhanced presence in metro Dallas/FW.

It may be possible that the AAC will be able to respond to the loss of UC, UCF, and UH nearly as effectively as the MWC responded to the loss of TCU, Utah, and BYU.

.

I think you're downplaying how big of a hit that was to the MWC...It's now a decade later and it still isn't at the same level they were back then...

Disagree. I think the MWC is as strong now as it was then. Back then, there were three schools that won 10+ games (BYU, Utah, & TCU).

In 2021, there were four MWC schools that won 10+ games: USU, AFA, SDSU, & FSU.

San Diego St.: 12-2 (final AP rank: #19)
Utah State: 11-3 (final AP rank: #24)
Fresno State: 10-3 (final AP rank: #18)
Air Force: 10-3

(05-23-2022 09:26 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-23-2022 03:24 AM)AztecNation Wrote:  

(05-21-2022 08:41 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 09:08 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 08:02 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  2016: 83-46=37 point gap

2021: 80-50=30 point gap

difference: 7 point reduction in the size of the gap

A 7 point drop=7/37 = 18.9% reduction

That's nearly a 20% shrinkage of the gap.

Whether one considers a 20% shrinkage in the gap over a 5 year period a large or small amount of shrinkage depends on one's perspective, but if the gap were to continue shrinking at that same 18.9% pace every five years going forward, the gap between the P5 and the G5 would be completely eliminated in 25 years.

G5 is going to be taking a step back with UC, UH and UCF joining the P5. Not to mention the regional recruiting power of BYU now in a P5.

That certainly seems likely, at least for a couple of years, but the experience of the MWC after TCU & Utah suggests that those effects might be relatively temporary.

For example, the Mountain West Conference took a hit in 2011/2012, when three of their best FB/MBB schools (TCU, Utah, & BYU) departed, but it didn't take them too long to bounce back after they responded by adding BSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Utah St., SJSU, & Hawaii (FB).

Little has been said about the six MWC additions, but consider their FB accomplishments over the decade since the MWC realignment (2012-2021):

Boise: 6 10+ win seasons (7 bowls (5-2); finished 5 seasons in the AP Top 25.
Utah St.: 4 10+ win FB seasons (8 bowl games (6-2) )
Fresno: 4 10+ win FB seasons (6 bowl games); finished 2018 in the AP Top 25.
Hawaii: Won 10 FB games in 2019 (4 bowl games (3-1) )
San Jose St.: Went 7-1 (.875) in 2020; finished 2020 in the AP Top 25.
Nevada: 6 bowl games between 2012 & 2021.

In addition, some of the MWC remainers bounced back surprisingly well after TCU, BYU, and Utah departed, for example:

Air Force: 4 10+ win FB seasons (6 bowl games (5-1) )
San Diego St.: 5 10+ win FB seasons (9 bowls); 2 finishes in the AP top 25.

(05-19-2022 09:08 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  The MWC has 1 more P5 to recruit against and the AAC has 3 more P5s.

True, but that may not make a huge difference, since the MWC already had to recruit against BYU, and the AAC already had to recruit against UC, UCF, & UH, which were already recruiting - in recent years - as if they were P5 programs (with the exception of UCF basketball).

Moreover, any potential recruiting concerns may be largely offset by the addition of four new recruiting regions (Miami/Ft.L/WPB, northern Alabama (UAB), Central N.C. (UNCC), Central Texas (UTSA), plus the Houston area, which will still be represented by an AAC school, and an enhanced presence in metro Dallas/FW.

It may be possible that the AAC will be able to respond to the loss of UC, UCF, and UH nearly as effectively as the MWC responded to the loss of TCU, Utah, and BYU.

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I think you're downplaying how big of a hit that was to the MWC...It's now a decade later and it still isn't at the same level they were back then...

Disagree. I think the MWC is as strong now as it was then. Back then, there were three schools that won 10+ games (BYU, Utah, & TCU).

In 2021, there were four MWC schools that won 10+ games: USU, AFA, SDSU, & FSU.

San Diego St.: 12-2 (final AP rank: #19)
Utah State: 11-3 (final AP rank: #24)
Fresno State: 10-3 (final AP rank: #18)
Air Force: 10-3

MW's massey rating in 2010 was 62. In 2009 it was 60. That's really good.

The last four years, the MW's rating has been 68, 74, 76 and 68. That's better than it was a couple years before, but nothing like the late 2000s.

To me, it's clear the MW took a big hit after the realignment at the turn of the 2010s, just like the AAC did after the Big East collapsed. When you lose top programs and backfill from lower leagues, it's inevitable, IMO.

(05-23-2022 09:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-23-2022 09:26 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-23-2022 03:24 AM)AztecNation Wrote:  

(05-21-2022 08:41 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 09:08 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  G5 is going to be taking a step back with UC, UH and UCF joining the P5. Not to mention the regional recruiting power of BYU now in a P5.

That certainly seems likely, at least for a couple of years, but the experience of the MWC after TCU & Utah suggests that those effects might be relatively temporary.

For example, the Mountain West Conference took a hit in 2011/2012, when three of their best FB/MBB schools (TCU, Utah, & BYU) departed, but it didn't take them too long to bounce back after they responded by adding BSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Utah St., SJSU, & Hawaii (FB).

Little has been said about the six MWC additions, but consider their FB accomplishments over the decade since the MWC realignment (2012-2021):

Boise: 6 10+ win seasons (7 bowls (5-2); finished 5 seasons in the AP Top 25.
Utah St.: 4 10+ win FB seasons (8 bowl games (6-2) )
Fresno: 4 10+ win FB seasons (6 bowl games); finished 2018 in the AP Top 25.
Hawaii: Won 10 FB games in 2019 (4 bowl games (3-1) )
San Jose St.: Went 7-1 (.875) in 2020; finished 2020 in the AP Top 25.
Nevada: 6 bowl games between 2012 & 2021.

In addition, some of the MWC remainers bounced back surprisingly well after TCU, BYU, and Utah departed, for example:

Air Force: 4 10+ win FB seasons (6 bowl games (5-1) )
San Diego St.: 5 10+ win FB seasons (9 bowls); 2 finishes in the AP top 25.

(05-19-2022 09:08 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  The MWC has 1 more P5 to recruit against and the AAC has 3 more P5s.

True, but that may not make a huge difference, since the MWC already had to recruit against BYU, and the AAC already had to recruit against UC, UCF, & UH, which were already recruiting - in recent years - as if they were P5 programs (with the exception of UCF basketball).

Moreover, any potential recruiting concerns may be largely offset by the addition of four new recruiting regions (Miami/Ft.L/WPB, northern Alabama (UAB), Central N.C. (UNCC), Central Texas (UTSA), plus the Houston area, which will still be represented by an AAC school, and an enhanced presence in metro Dallas/FW.

It may be possible that the AAC will be able to respond to the loss of UC, UCF, and UH nearly as effectively as the MWC responded to the loss of TCU, Utah, and BYU.

.

I think you're downplaying how big of a hit that was to the MWC...It's now a decade later and it still isn't at the same level they were back then...

Disagree. I think the MWC is as strong now as it was then. Back then, there were three schools that won 10+ games (BYU, Utah, & TCU).

In 2021, there were four MWC schools that won 10+ games: USU, AFA, SDSU, & FSU.

San Diego St.: 12-2 (final AP rank: #19)
Utah State: 11-3 (final AP rank: #24)
Fresno State: 10-3 (final AP rank: #18)
Air Force: 10-3

MW's massey rating in 2010 was 62. In 2009 it was 60. That's really good.

The last four years, the MW's rating has been 68, 74, 76 and 68. That's better than it was a couple years before, but nothing like the late 2000s.

To me, it's clear the MW took a big hit after the realignment at the turn of the 2010s, just like the AAC did after the Big East collapsed. When you lose top programs and backfill from lower leagues, it's inevitable, IMO.

Top-to-bottom, the MWC might have been slightly (68-62=6=~10%) stronger in 2010 than it was in 2021^, but twice as many MWC teams won 10+ games in 2021 (SDSU, USU, AFA, & FSU) as did in 2010 (TCU & Utah), and there were three times as many MWC teams (SDSU, USU, & FSU) that finished the 2021 season in the final AP top 25 than there were in 2010 (TCU).

^The MWC was the #7th ranked conference in 2010, and the Big East was ranked 6th. The MWC's average rank was 62.39; the Big East's was 55.85.

https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2011-15.htm

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I don't know how anyone else feels about the results of this poll, thus far, but they blow me away! They're even stronger than I had expected.

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Not exactly sure why. I mean, it definitely has shrunk. Meaning, there aren’t that many P5 teams that make me think “body bag game” anymore. There were a lot more 20 years ago when Pat Hill coined “Anyone! Anywhere! Anytime!”.

(05-23-2022 10:18 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-23-2022 09:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-23-2022 09:26 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-23-2022 03:24 AM)AztecNation Wrote:  

(05-21-2022 08:41 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  That certainly seems likely, at least for a couple of years, but the experience of the MWC after TCU & Utah suggests that those effects might be relatively temporary.

For example, the Mountain West Conference took a hit in 2011/2012, when three of their best FB/MBB schools (TCU, Utah, & BYU) departed, but it didn't take them too long to bounce back after they responded by adding BSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Utah St., SJSU, & Hawaii (FB).

Little has been said about the six MWC additions, but consider their FB accomplishments over the decade since the MWC realignment (2012-2021):

Boise: 6 10+ win seasons (7 bowls (5-2); finished 5 seasons in the AP Top 25.
Utah St.: 4 10+ win FB seasons (8 bowl games (6-2) )
Fresno: 4 10+ win FB seasons (6 bowl games); finished 2018 in the AP Top 25.
Hawaii: Won 10 FB games in 2019 (4 bowl games (3-1) )
San Jose St.: Went 7-1 (.875) in 2020; finished 2020 in the AP Top 25.
Nevada: 6 bowl games between 2012 & 2021.

In addition, some of the MWC remainers bounced back surprisingly well after TCU, BYU, and Utah departed, for example:

Air Force: 4 10+ win FB seasons (6 bowl games (5-1) )
San Diego St.: 5 10+ win FB seasons (9 bowls); 2 finishes in the AP top 25.


True, but that may not make a huge difference, since the MWC already had to recruit against BYU, and the AAC already had to recruit against UC, UCF, & UH, which were already recruiting - in recent years - as if they were P5 programs (with the exception of UCF basketball).

Moreover, any potential recruiting concerns may be largely offset by the addition of four new recruiting regions (Miami/Ft.L/WPB, northern Alabama (UAB), Central N.C. (UNCC), Central Texas (UTSA), plus the Houston area, which will still be represented by an AAC school, and an enhanced presence in metro Dallas/FW.

It may be possible that the AAC will be able to respond to the loss of UC, UCF, and UH nearly as effectively as the MWC responded to the loss of TCU, Utah, and BYU.

.

I think you're downplaying how big of a hit that was to the MWC...It's now a decade later and it still isn't at the same level they were back then...

Disagree. I think the MWC is as strong now as it was then. Back then, there were three schools that won 10+ games (BYU, Utah, & TCU).

In 2021, there were four MWC schools that won 10+ games: USU, AFA, SDSU, & FSU.

San Diego St.: 12-2 (final AP rank: #19)
Utah State: 11-3 (final AP rank: #24)
Fresno State: 10-3 (final AP rank: #18)
Air Force: 10-3

MW's massey rating in 2010 was 62. In 2009 it was 60. That's really good.

The last four years, the MW's rating has been 68, 74, 76 and 68. That's better than it was a couple years before, but nothing like the late 2000s.

To me, it's clear the MW took a big hit after the realignment at the turn of the 2010s, just like the AAC did after the Big East collapsed. When you lose top programs and backfill from lower leagues, it's inevitable, IMO.

Top-to-bottom, the MWC might have been slightly (68-62=6=~10%) stronger in 2010 than it was in 2021^, but twice as many MWC teams won 10+ games in 2021 (SDSU, USU, AFA, & FSU) as did in 2010 (TCU & Utah), and there were three times as many MWC teams (SDSU, USU, & FSU) that finished the 2021 season in the final AP top 25 than there were in 2010 (TCU).

^The MWC was the #7th ranked conference in 2010, and the Big East was ranked 6th. The MWC's average rank was 62.39; the Big East's was 55.85.

https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2011-15.htm

You say "but .." and then talk about teams with 10 or more wins and teams finishing in the AP top 25, as if those matter? IMO they don't matter at all. Ratings like the MC tell us how strong a conference is, not just how good the two or three top teams were.

The MW had an MC score of 62 in 2010 and 60 in 2009. As we can see from the more recent years, that's better than the MW has ever done since.

Look at the MC ratings since 2012: 83 (2012), 84, 76, 87, 78, 83, 77, 74, 76, 68 (2021).

For five years after the big 2010-2011 realignment, from 2012-2016, the MW ratings are from the upper 70s to upper 80s, a HUGE dropoff from where it was in the late 2000s. Then from 2017 on, there is improvement - no more scores in the 80s. We get three scores in the mid-70s, then finally a big improvement to 68 this past year. That 68, which is still nowhere near how good the league was before the 2010-2011 realignment, might be a one-shot outlier or a trend, we'll see.

But it took almost 10 years of rebuilding to even reach a score of 68! That suggests that the MW took a very big hit from that realignment, IMO.

Likewise, the Big East in its last years was considerably better than the AAC** was after all of the realignment of 2011-2012.

When you get stripped of top schools and backfill with replacements from lower levels, things get worse, at least that is the history. And then it takes a long time to claw your way back to any semblance of former glory.

** the fact that some around here (not talking about you, btw) seem to think the AAC is as good or better than the 2005-2011 Big East is a testament to recency bias, and to success of the P6 campaign in creating an impression of AAC strength.

Financially the gap is GROWING!