Damn.

(05-18-2022 04:18 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:  Report, JP Morgan Predicts National Average Gasoline Prices Over $6 Gallon by August

Quote:Zero Hedge published a good article yesterday with some solid internal data showing a strong likelihood that national gasoline prices are likely to rise another 40% from current levels by mid-late summer. That would put the national average for a gallon of gasoline around $6.20 by August.

The data behind the prediction is solid and essentially boils down to the U.S. refineries not having the expanded capacity needed to keep up with an increased summer demand, particularly as they need to keep generating high volumes of diesel fuel due to current critical shortages.

The issues are created by the Biden administration and the regulatory stranglehold they put on the oil and gas industry last year. Obviously, all of this is a feature of the administration plan, not a flaw. The Green New Deal agenda necessarily requires that gasoline rise in price to $7/gal this year in order to force the change in profit dynamic for alternative fueled transportation.

Unfortunately, we the consumers will be the ones punished as the progressive, communist and far-left policy makers chase their climate change agenda. Cheap and cost-effective energy has to be made ‘not cheap’ and ‘not cost-effective’ in order to create the energy crisis their agenda requires.

Massive increases in gasoline prices are a feature, not a flaw.

Remember, Biden is disposable. The people behind Biden purposefully selected him in order to generate a kamikaze ‘fundamental change’ mission within a single 4-year presidential term. Getting crushed on the political outcomes is irrelevant, they just need to push the agenda fast enough, far enough, and destructive enough, so that all energy policies become irreversible.


The people behind the Biden administration energy program are trying to make the infrastructure needed to return to cheap and abundant energy independence, cost prohibitive.

(Via Zero Hedge) – […] According to JPM, a major driver in these counter-seasonal draws in gasoline is higher-than-normal exports. Preliminary EIA data suggest that gasoline exports, mostly to Mexico and the rest of Latin America, are averaging about 0.9 mbd since March, about 100 kbd above seasonal norms and nearly 300 kbd above summer rates.

The punchline: if exports persist at this elevated pace and refinery runs, already near the top of the range for reasonable utilization rates, fall within JPM’s expectations, gasoline inventories could continue to draw to levels well below 2008 lows and retail gasoline prices could climb to $6/gal or even higher, according to JPMorgan.

Some more details from the JPM forecast, starting with assumptions:

The bank expects US refinery runs to peak at 16.8 mbd in August, which, with an average gasoline yield of 49%, means that US refiners will produce about 8.2 mbd of gasoline. Assuming gasoline imports of 0.7 mbd and 10% ethanol blending, the bank expects total finished motor gasoline supply to average 9.9 mbd. If exports continue just below current levels—about 0.8 mbd—that leaves the US with just 9.1 mbd of gasoline supply available for consumption at peak demand this summer.

Because US gasoline demand is expected to average 9.7 mbd in August, the result is an average draw of 0.6 mbd from gasoline inventories in August, about 200 kbd tighter than normal.

Holding those assumptions on refinery yields and flows for gasoline from today through August, total US gasoline inventories could fall below 160 mb by the end of August, the lowest inventory level since the 1950s.

A regression analysis on the relationship between gasoline inventory changes and NYMEX gasoline prices “suggests that a drop of about 60 mb in gasoline stocks between now and August would result in a 37% increase in prices which translates to a $6.20/gal average US retail price”, according to Kaneva. (read more)

My guess is we won’t hit these dire predictions because the demand won’t stay steady. Demand always falls in recession—-and given that $5 fuel would be a devastating economic blow for most any paycheck-to-paycheck family—-I can’t see us hitting our typical summer gas demand with those economic headwinds (that’s not even factoring in the effect of food costs which I expect to explode starting late this summer).

Not surging!!!!!!!

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

(05-18-2022 04:44 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 04:18 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:  Report, JP Morgan Predicts National Average Gasoline Prices Over $6 Gallon by August

Quote:Zero Hedge published a good article yesterday with some solid internal data showing a strong likelihood that national gasoline prices are likely to rise another 40% from current levels by mid-late summer. That would put the national average for a gallon of gasoline around $6.20 by August.

The data behind the prediction is solid and essentially boils down to the U.S. refineries not having the expanded capacity needed to keep up with an increased summer demand, particularly as they need to keep generating high volumes of diesel fuel due to current critical shortages.

The issues are created by the Biden administration and the regulatory stranglehold they put on the oil and gas industry last year. Obviously, all of this is a feature of the administration plan, not a flaw. The Green New Deal agenda necessarily requires that gasoline rise in price to $7/gal this year in order to force the change in profit dynamic for alternative fueled transportation.

Unfortunately, we the consumers will be the ones punished as the progressive, communist and far-left policy makers chase their climate change agenda. Cheap and cost-effective energy has to be made ‘not cheap’ and ‘not cost-effective’ in order to create the energy crisis their agenda requires.

Massive increases in gasoline prices are a feature, not a flaw.

Remember, Biden is disposable. The people behind Biden purposefully selected him in order to generate a kamikaze ‘fundamental change’ mission within a single 4-year presidential term. Getting crushed on the political outcomes is irrelevant, they just need to push the agenda fast enough, far enough, and destructive enough, so that all energy policies become irreversible.


The people behind the Biden administration energy program are trying to make the infrastructure needed to return to cheap and abundant energy independence, cost prohibitive.

(Via Zero Hedge) – […] According to JPM, a major driver in these counter-seasonal draws in gasoline is higher-than-normal exports. Preliminary EIA data suggest that gasoline exports, mostly to Mexico and the rest of Latin America, are averaging about 0.9 mbd since March, about 100 kbd above seasonal norms and nearly 300 kbd above summer rates.

The punchline: if exports persist at this elevated pace and refinery runs, already near the top of the range for reasonable utilization rates, fall within JPM’s expectations, gasoline inventories could continue to draw to levels well below 2008 lows and retail gasoline prices could climb to $6/gal or even higher, according to JPMorgan.

Some more details from the JPM forecast, starting with assumptions:

The bank expects US refinery runs to peak at 16.8 mbd in August, which, with an average gasoline yield of 49%, means that US refiners will produce about 8.2 mbd of gasoline. Assuming gasoline imports of 0.7 mbd and 10% ethanol blending, the bank expects total finished motor gasoline supply to average 9.9 mbd. If exports continue just below current levels—about 0.8 mbd—that leaves the US with just 9.1 mbd of gasoline supply available for consumption at peak demand this summer.

Because US gasoline demand is expected to average 9.7 mbd in August, the result is an average draw of 0.6 mbd from gasoline inventories in August, about 200 kbd tighter than normal.

Holding those assumptions on refinery yields and flows for gasoline from today through August, total US gasoline inventories could fall below 160 mb by the end of August, the lowest inventory level since the 1950s.

A regression analysis on the relationship between gasoline inventory changes and NYMEX gasoline prices “suggests that a drop of about 60 mb in gasoline stocks between now and August would result in a 37% increase in prices which translates to a $6.20/gal average US retail price”, according to Kaneva. (read more)

My guess is we won’t hit these dire predictions because the demand won’t stay steady. Demand always falls in recession—-and given that $5 fuel would be a devastating economic blow for most any paycheck-to-paycheck family—-I can’t see us hitting our typical summer gas demand with those economic headwinds (that’s not even factoring in the effect of food costs which expect to explode starting late this summer).

There ya go.

"Build Back Better"

LMFAO!

The Dems running for re-election this year hoping the election comes quick at this point.

Gas stations in Washington reprogram pumps for $10-a-gallon fuel https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...e-masthead


Deez nuts leftists

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Paid $4.27/gal for regular today at my local wholesale club which is generally cheaper than everywhere else.

Went to $4.20 on my corner today.

(05-18-2022 05:02 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 04:44 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 04:18 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:  Report, JP Morgan Predicts National Average Gasoline Prices Over $6 Gallon by August

Quote:Zero Hedge published a good article yesterday with some solid internal data showing a strong likelihood that national gasoline prices are likely to rise another 40% from current levels by mid-late summer. That would put the national average for a gallon of gasoline around $6.20 by August.

The data behind the prediction is solid and essentially boils down to the U.S. refineries not having the expanded capacity needed to keep up with an increased summer demand, particularly as they need to keep generating high volumes of diesel fuel due to current critical shortages.

The issues are created by the Biden administration and the regulatory stranglehold they put on the oil and gas industry last year. Obviously, all of this is a feature of the administration plan, not a flaw. The Green New Deal agenda necessarily requires that gasoline rise in price to $7/gal this year in order to force the change in profit dynamic for alternative fueled transportation.

Unfortunately, we the consumers will be the ones punished as the progressive, communist and far-left policy makers chase their climate change agenda. Cheap and cost-effective energy has to be made ‘not cheap’ and ‘not cost-effective’ in order to create the energy crisis their agenda requires.

Massive increases in gasoline prices are a feature, not a flaw.

Remember, Biden is disposable. The people behind Biden purposefully selected him in order to generate a kamikaze ‘fundamental change’ mission within a single 4-year presidential term. Getting crushed on the political outcomes is irrelevant, they just need to push the agenda fast enough, far enough, and destructive enough, so that all energy policies become irreversible.


The people behind the Biden administration energy program are trying to make the infrastructure needed to return to cheap and abundant energy independence, cost prohibitive.

(Via Zero Hedge) – […] According to JPM, a major driver in these counter-seasonal draws in gasoline is higher-than-normal exports. Preliminary EIA data suggest that gasoline exports, mostly to Mexico and the rest of Latin America, are averaging about 0.9 mbd since March, about 100 kbd above seasonal norms and nearly 300 kbd above summer rates.

The punchline: if exports persist at this elevated pace and refinery runs, already near the top of the range for reasonable utilization rates, fall within JPM’s expectations, gasoline inventories could continue to draw to levels well below 2008 lows and retail gasoline prices could climb to $6/gal or even higher, according to JPMorgan.

Some more details from the JPM forecast, starting with assumptions:

The bank expects US refinery runs to peak at 16.8 mbd in August, which, with an average gasoline yield of 49%, means that US refiners will produce about 8.2 mbd of gasoline. Assuming gasoline imports of 0.7 mbd and 10% ethanol blending, the bank expects total finished motor gasoline supply to average 9.9 mbd. If exports continue just below current levels—about 0.8 mbd—that leaves the US with just 9.1 mbd of gasoline supply available for consumption at peak demand this summer.

Because US gasoline demand is expected to average 9.7 mbd in August, the result is an average draw of 0.6 mbd from gasoline inventories in August, about 200 kbd tighter than normal.

Holding those assumptions on refinery yields and flows for gasoline from today through August, total US gasoline inventories could fall below 160 mb by the end of August, the lowest inventory level since the 1950s.

A regression analysis on the relationship between gasoline inventory changes and NYMEX gasoline prices “suggests that a drop of about 60 mb in gasoline stocks between now and August would result in a 37% increase in prices which translates to a $6.20/gal average US retail price”, according to Kaneva. (read more)

My guess is we won’t hit these dire predictions because the demand won’t stay steady. Demand always falls in recession—-and given that $5 fuel would be a devastating economic blow for most any paycheck-to-paycheck family—-I can’t see us hitting our typical summer gas demand with those economic headwinds (that’s not even factoring in the effect of food costs which expect to explode starting late this summer).

There ya go.

"Build Back Better"

LMFAO!

The Dems running for re-election this year hoping the election comes quick at this point.

Where are the Regressives and leftists to defend this monumental meltdown? If this was Trump, which it never would’ve been because despite his flaws he understands basic economics 101 something a career politician has no clue of, then their mouths would be running like outboard boat motors. Instead all we hear are crickets.

I guess I’m not as brainwashed as the lackeys are. They must really know their place as underlings. No way would my criticism be any less scathing if a conservative clown was doing this. Maybe some will have to actually become aware and start thinking for themselves as talking points have become an embarrassment.

$4.49 out on the highway...

$4.04 here at the wholesale club, but it's north of $4.25 everywhere else that I've looked in the local area.

down 10 cents today. Winning!

Tom? Tom? Helloooooooo?

Got any defense for this? I mean orange man bad and Biden is the savior etc.... right?

Could you imagine how bad this would be if prices were surging instead of just gently increasing?

Tom seems to have disappeared. Maybe he got tired of getting his ass kicked every time he opened his mouth.

The AAA Gas Prices site shows a gallon of regular unleaded is now UP to a national average of $4.58/gallon today - May 19.

This is a 2 cent jump from yesterday.

This is the 10th straight day of the gas cost INCREASES.

CONTINUE TO ENDURE THE PAIN OF THIS BIDEN* GAS COST SURGE, AMERICA!

LET'S GO BRANDON!

(05-19-2022 08:12 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  Tom seems to have disappeared. Maybe he got tired of getting his ass kicked every time he opened his mouth.

Nah, he's a masochist so he'll be back, sure that he's 'winning.'

I live in a town dominated by military. Which means steady pay checks every couple weeks for the most part.

Fuel is north of $4.65 at most stations and climbing (as it is everywhere).

The AAA Gas Prices site shows a gallon of regular unleaded is now UP to a national average of $4.59/gallon today - May 20.

This is a 1 cent jump from yesterday.

This is the 11th straight day of the BIDEN* GAS HIKES. CONTINUE TO TOLERATE THE FINANCIAL PAIN OF THIS BIDEN* GAS COST SURGE, AMERICA!

This FOX Business article goes into some depth explaining the pain at the pump:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/recor...dented-aaa

Here is a sampling of the reader comments to the article:

Joe and his minions are doing everything in their power to get gas prices to $10 a gallon, to force electric vehicles on us. This includes depleting our strategic oil supply.

From energy independence with cheap gas to dependence on foreign oil and sky high prices in only 18 months. Thank you Joe!

The Democratic Party is deconstructing the US piece by piece. They said they would destroy the oil industry and they are doing it.

Have no doubts, the high cost of energy is an intentional act of the Brandon administration.

This is how trickle up Bidenflation works.

We've never had a president like President Teleprompter before. These gas prices were a certainty on his first day in office.

Record gas prices as Brandon cancels more leases for drilling on federal lands and adds increased regulations making it impossible to build much needed pipelines to move oil and gas.

Although liberal politicians rarely admit it because of the political implications, they relish in high gas prices because they believe it is the mechanism needed to advance green energy.

US oil production is down 2 Million bbls per day from when Trump LEFT office.

Green energy requires all energy to be expensive so that it is competitive. The pain isn't done yet. The democrats are going to make it worse.

Stolen elections have consequences.

Quote:Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein

In April 2016 I warned the Senate that anti-fossil-fuel policies in Europe and the US would cause skyrocketing energy prices and therefore skyrocketing food prices.

Many Senators dismissed me.

But I was right. And I am right today when I say we need a Fossil Future.

[video in link]

3:09 PM · May 23, 2022

Just filled up on the way home. $75.44!

I printed the receipt, which I don’t ordinarily do. I am going to mail it to my Cong. rep. or one of my senators. I haven’t decide which yet. None of them care.

(05-25-2022 06:37 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  Just filled up on the way home. $75.44!

I printed the receipt, which I don’t ordinarily do. I am going to mail it to my Cong. rep. or one of my senators. I haven’t decide which yet. None of them care.

I hear you.

Filling up my Dodge Ram costs about $104. Thankfully, I only fill it up about every three weeks days due to WFH. If I was driving the 44 mile RT to the office 5 days each week, it would be a weekly expense that turns into a $5,500 cost annually.

Gas was $2.34 a week or so before Trump left office. How nice would it be to have it there today?