(05-08-2022 04:16 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-08-2022 03:33 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  In football, the AAC will fall behind with the MWC and be in a dog fight with the SBC.

The AAC will be a one bid league most years in basketball.

Oh shoot if you want to talk about 2023 and beyond we’ll be lucky to be a ONE bid league.

No luck is required to be a one bid league, since a minimum of one bid is guaranteed, and as long as Memphis, WSU, SMU, UAB, UNT, Tulane, and Temple are in the AAC, we can probably expect the conference to average at least 1.5 to 2 bids.

. . . . . .

Q: Are there any fans of AAC teams other than Houston or Memphis who think their teams might have a legitimate shot at a NCAA bid next season?

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(05-08-2022 08:59 PM)ultraviolet Wrote:  The problem is someone needs to step into the void left by the departure of Houston basketball and Cincinnati football. Those are top tier programs and national contenders. Can we get any of the remaining programs to that level in those respective sports? That’s the unanswerable question.

There are definitely more questions than answers when it comes to 2023-24 & beyond.

However, we do know this much:

1. UTSA won 12 FB games last season and was ranked in the AP Top 25 in the final regular season poll in December.

"We" didn't have to "get" UTSA "to that level" in football. They did it on their own.

2. UAB played in the 2015 and 2022 NCAA tournaments and the 2016 NIT. Nobody "had to get them to that level" - - they did it on their own.

3. North Texas played in the 2021 NCAA tournament and the 2022 NIT. Nobody had "to get them to that level" - - they did it on their own.

4. UAB has played 4 football bowl games in the past 5 years, despite the pandemic, and has averaged 9 wins per season. They did that on their own.

5. UNT has played 5 football bowl games in the past 6 seasons, despite the pandemic, and they did that on their own.

We have to give them credit where credit is due.

.

.

Poll summary: The early data suggest that most AAC fans who have responded so far tend to think AAC FB will remain about the same, and that AAC MBB will either remain about the same or be somewhat better in 2022-23.

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(05-08-2022 08:59 PM)ultraviolet Wrote:  The problem is someone needs to step into the void left by the departure of Houston basketball and Cincinnati football. Those are top tier programs and national contenders. Can we get any of the remaining programs to that level in those respective sports? That’s the unanswerable question.

I respectfully disagree, to some extent - - in this sense:

Yes, someone needs to step into the void left by the departing top 25 programs.

However, this may not really be a "problem," when you think it over carefully.

It may be equally accurate to think of it as an "opportunity" for other programs to step into UC, UCF, and UH's FB "shoes" and the BB "shoes" of Houston's BB "shoes."

Question: Is it more likely that none of the 14 AAC 2.0 schools will step into their shoes, or that some of them will do so?

The answer seems to be that, while the AAC 2.0 could end up with no nationally prominent FB or BB programs from 2023 onward, it's probably much more likely that 2 or 3 FB teams will move up in the standings and finish with 10+ wins/season after UC, UCF, & UH depart, and that some of them will end up in the AP Top 25.

---This seems likely since the teams in the conference will no longer have UC, UCF, and UH to contend with, team such as SMU that have previously finished with 7, 8, or 9 wins will be likely to finish with 9 to 12 wins.

Rather than seeing it as a difficult problem, perhaps it would be more accurate to think of it as an exciting opportunity for the contenders that will be trying to make their way into the upper echelon of the conference, and for the fans who will enjoy watching them battle it out.

(05-09-2022 02:47 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-08-2022 08:59 PM)ultraviolet Wrote:  The problem is someone needs to step into the void left by the departure of Houston basketball and Cincinnati football. Those are top tier programs and national contenders. Can we get any of the remaining programs to that level in those respective sports? That’s the unanswerable question.

There are definitely more questions than answers when it comes to 2023-24 & beyond.

However, we do know this much:

1. UTSA won 12 FB games last season and was ranked in the AP Top 25 in the final regular season poll in December.

"We" didn't have to "get" UTSA "to that level" in football. They did it on their own.

2. UAB played in the 2015 and 2022 NCAA tournaments and the 2016 NIT. Nobody "had to get them to that level" - - they did it on their own.

3. North Texas played in the 2021 NCAA tournament and the 2022 NIT. Nobody had "to get them to that level" - - they did it on their own.

4. UAB has played 4 football bowl games in the past 5 years, despite the pandemic, and has averaged 9 wins per season. They did that on their own.

5. UNT has played 5 football bowl games in the past 6 seasons, despite the pandemic, and they did that on their own.

We have to give them credit where credit is due.

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clt adds we are undefeated at home vs "p5" schools.

Don't expect much if any change in the AAC until UCF, Houston, and Cinn leave. When that happens and the new CUSA 6 arrive the AAC will take a hit. At the very least it will be at the level of the MWC and expanded Sunbelt if the MWC doesn't surpass it in FB and BB, but it will certainly remain above the MAC and the new bottom feeder CUSA in the G5 pecking order.

(05-08-2022 04:56 PM)Lurkercat Wrote:  

(05-08-2022 04:32 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  2022;
FB: 7th best league, just behind MWC.

No way the AAC finishes 7th this year. I think they might challenge a P5 for that #5 spot. Houston/UCF/UC are returning coaches and will be good. ECU will surprise people (I think they ruin NCSU's dream season before it even begins) and SMU, even with a new staff, is bringing in a lot of talent. This league will be 5-6 deep and pretty competitive

I don't really get the "will improve enough to be top 5" option.

We had a team in the CFP last season(and one conference got 2 teams in)? Were we not at least in the top 5 last year? I figured we were in the 4-5 range.

What would we have to accomplish to "improve" to #5?

I think we're going to be very good in football next year, I don't see any team seriously regressing other than Cincy and I still think Cincy will be in the mix at the top of the AAC.

I voted other. I think AAC football will end with two teams in the top 10. With a chance to send a team to the college football playoff in back to back years and the other team will be in a new years six bowl game. More teams will make a bowl game and the AAC will have a winning record during bowl season. On the men's basketball side the AAC gets 4 teams in March Madness next year with teams 5 and 6 on the bubble. Perhaps stealing a spot. Of the 4 teams in one gets to the National championship game (Houston) one gets to the elite 8. The other two teams reach at least the sweet 16. If we do get a 5th team (and possibly a 6th) team in they will at least advance to the round of 32. Meaning every AAC team gets at least one win in the March Madness tournament.

(05-08-2022 10:23 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-08-2022 04:16 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-08-2022 03:33 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  In football, the AAC will fall behind with the MWC and be in a dog fight with the SBC.

The AAC will be a one bid league most years in basketball.

Oh shoot if you want to talk about 2023 and beyond we’ll be lucky to be a ONE bid league.

No luck is required to be a one bid league, since a minimum of one bid is guaranteed, and as long as Memphis, WSU, SMU, UAB, UNT, Tulane, and Temple are in the AAC, we can probably expect the conference to average at least 1.5 to 2 bids.

. . . . . .

Q: Are there any fans of AAC teams other than Houston or Memphis who think their teams might have a legitimate shot at a NCAA bid next season?

.

Yes, I'm a Wichita State fan and I think Tulane has a shot if they take another step forward. I think the same argument could be made for Temple if they improve upon their 4th place finish. Cincinnati could challenge for the league title and a top 4 seed. I've said previously I think Wichita State has a shot. If the pieces they pulled out of the portal come together. It's why I don't understand some of the negativity on this board. The AAC is a good league. I'm hoping everyone performs well in the non conference in both football and basketball then we can sort it out in league play.

(05-08-2022 10:23 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-08-2022 04:16 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-08-2022 03:33 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  In football, the AAC will fall behind with the MWC and be in a dog fight with the SBC.

The AAC will be a one bid league most years in basketball.

Oh shoot if you want to talk about 2023 and beyond we’ll be lucky to be a ONE bid league.

No luck is required to be a one bid league, since a minimum of one bid is guaranteed, and as long as Memphis, WSU, SMU, UAB, UNT, Tulane, and Temple are in the AAC, we can probably expect the conference to average at least 1.5 to 2 bids.

. . . . . .

Q: Are there any fans of AAC teams other than Houston or Memphis who think their teams might have a legitimate shot at a NCAA bid next season?

.

Yes, I'm a Wichita State fan and I think Tulane has a shot if they take another step forward. I think the same argument could be made for Temple if they improve upon their 4th place finish. Cincinnati could challenge for the league title and a top 4 seed. I've said previously I think Wichita State has a shot. If the pieces they pulled out of the portal come together. It's why I don't understand some of the negativity on this board. The AAC is a good league. I'm hoping everyone performs well in the non conference in both football and basketball then we can sort it out in league play.

Is anyone surprised by how few poll respondents - so far - have indicated that they expect the conference to be stronger in 2022-23?

Perhaps a lot of AAC fans aren't expecting Memphis to earn another NCAA bid, because they assume Memphis won't be able to reload successfully, or won't be able to play well enough as a team with so many new players, or that they'll be kept out due to NCAA violations.

The AAC only had 3 NCAA or NIT tournament teams last season, below the conference's historical average of 4.5 NCAA or NIT teams, and only half as many as the conference had in 2019 (4 NCAA teams, 2 NIT teams).

Since its inception, the American has never received less than two NCAA bids, and it probably won't have less than two bids in 2023. It might have three. In addition, the conference will probably have at least one or two NIT teams.

The conference's historical averages suggest that the AAC should have more than three NCAA/NIT teams in 2023.

High probability NCAA teams: Houston (NCAA lock).

Medium probability NCAA team:

Memphis: Will play in the NCAA or NIT tournament unless they're disqualified.

Probable (NCAA or NIT) tournament team:

Tulane: All key players are returning from a team that closed strong in 2022.

Likely to have a good shot at a NIT, if not a NCAA bid:

SMU: Has appeared in the last two NIT tournaments.
Cincinnati: Probable NIT bid (strong group of incoming players).
Temple: 6 core players returning, should be able to contend for a NIT bid.
Wichita State: Could contend for a tournament bid.

Prediction: Due to improving Cincy, Tulane, and Temple programs, the AAC should be in a better position to have four NCAA/NIT teams in 2023, even if Memphis is disqualified.

NOTE: Tulane may be the second best team in the conference, regardless.

.

im not sure Tulane is in a separate tier .. top of the tier but im not sure id put them in separate tier right now

and ucf has to be listed they have one of the better aac rosters ..

if everyone else stays the same (their roster today), and ucf adds 1 more notable guard, i honestly would put them as the 2nd best aac roster in regards to talent..

everyone but cincy listed still has ships atleast 2 ships ..so theres room for game changing adds

(05-11-2022 12:06 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Is anyone surprised by how few poll respondents - so far - have indicated that they expect the conference to be stronger in 2022-23?

Perhaps a lot of AAC fans aren't expecting Memphis to earn another NCAA bid, because they assume Memphis won't be able to reload successfully, or won't be able to play well enough as a team with so many new players, or that they'll be kept out due to NCAA violations.

The AAC only had 3 NCAA or NIT tournament teams last season, below the conference's historical average of 4.5 NCAA or NIT teams, and only half as many as the conference had in 2019 (4 NCAA teams, 2 NIT teams).

Since its inception, the American has never received less than two NCAA bids, and it probably won't have less than two bids in 2023. It might have three. In addition, the conference will probably have at least one or two NIT teams.

The conference's historical averages suggest that the AAC should have more than three NCAA/NIT teams in 2023.

High probability NCAA teams: Houston (NCAA lock).

Medium probability NCAA team:

Memphis: Will play in the NCAA or NIT tournament unless they're disqualified.

Probable (NCAA or NIT) tournament team:

Tulane: All key players are returning from a team that closed strong in 2022.

Likely to have a good shot at a NIT, if not a NCAA bid:

SMU: Has appeared in the last two NIT tournaments.
Cincinnati: Probable NIT bid (strong group of incoming players).
Temple: 6 core players returning, should be able to contend for a NIT bid.
Wichita State: Could contend for a tournament bid.

Prediction: Due to improving Cincy, Tulane, and Temple programs, the AAC should be in a better position to have four NCAA/NIT teams in 2023, even if Memphis is disqualified.

NOTE: Tulane may be the second best team in the conference, regardless.

.

Can't say surprised. For some reason most tend to lean towards negativity. I honestly think the AAC will surprise us all (in a good way). I expect the league to punch many P5 schools in the mouth next year.

(05-17-2022 05:40 PM)GQbless Wrote:  

(05-11-2022 12:06 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Is anyone surprised by how few poll respondents - so far - have indicated that they expect the conference to be stronger in 2022-23?

Perhaps a lot of AAC fans aren't expecting Memphis to earn another NCAA bid, because they assume Memphis won't be able to reload successfully, or won't be able to play well enough as a team with so many new players, or that they'll be kept out due to NCAA violations.

The AAC only had 3 NCAA or NIT tournament teams last season, below the conference's historical average of 4.5 NCAA or NIT teams, and only half as many as the conference had in 2019 (4 NCAA teams, 2 NIT teams).

Since its inception, the American has never received less than two NCAA bids, and it probably won't have less than two bids in 2023. It might have three. In addition, the conference will probably have at least one or two NIT teams.

The conference's historical averages suggest that the AAC should have more than three NCAA/NIT teams in 2023.

High probability NCAA teams: Houston (NCAA lock).

Medium probability NCAA team:

Memphis: Will play in the NCAA or NIT tournament unless they're disqualified.

Probable (NCAA or NIT) tournament team:

Tulane: All key players are returning from a team that closed strong in 2022.

Likely to have a good shot at a NIT, if not a NCAA bid:

SMU: Has appeared in the last two NIT tournaments.
Cincinnati: Probable NIT bid (strong group of incoming players).
Temple: 6 core players returning, should be able to contend for a NIT bid.
Wichita State: Could contend for a tournament bid.

Prediction: Due to improving Cincy, Tulane, and Temple programs, the AAC should be in a better position to have four NCAA/NIT teams in 2023, even if Memphis is disqualified.

NOTE: Tulane may be the second best team in the conference, regardless.

.

Can't say surprised. For some reason most tend to lean towards negativity. I honestly think the AAC will surprise us all (in a good way). I expect the league to punch many P5 schools in the mouth next year.

In FB, MBB, or both?

Seems like the poll suggests more optimism about MBB than about FB among those who've responded. However, consider the fact that 7 teams were bowl-qualified last season:

Cincy: 13 wins
Houston: 12 wins
UCF: 9 wins
SMU: 8 wins (has won 76% of their games under current Head Coach)
ECU: 7 wins (improving program)
Tulsa: 7 wins (improving program)
Memphis: 6 wins

.

The 2 sports should have been separated into 2 polls. Too many options.

(05-09-2022 02:47 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-08-2022 08:59 PM)ultraviolet Wrote:  The problem is someone needs to step into the void left by the departure of Houston basketball and Cincinnati football. Those are top tier programs and national contenders. Can we get any of the remaining programs to that level in those respective sports? That’s the unanswerable question.

There are definitely more questions than answers when it comes to 2023-24 & beyond.

However, we do know this much:

1. UTSA won 12 FB games last season and was ranked in the AP Top 25 in the final regular season poll in December.

"We" didn't have to "get" UTSA "to that level" in football. They did it on their own.

2. UAB played in the 2015 and 2022 NCAA tournaments and the 2016 NIT. Nobody "had to get them to that level" - - they did it on their own.

3. North Texas played in the 2021 NCAA tournament and the 2022 NIT. Nobody had "to get them to that level" - - they did it on their own.

4. UAB has played 4 football bowl games in the past 5 years, despite the pandemic, and has averaged 9 wins per season. They did that on their own.

5. UNT has played 5 football bowl games in the past 6 seasons, despite the pandemic, and they did that on their own.

We have to give them credit where credit is due.

.

Thanks for putting some facts out there.

(05-17-2022 08:20 PM)TripleA Wrote:  The 2 sports should have been separated into 2 polls. Too many options.

Maybe, maybe not. Those who voted in the poll didn't seem to have any trouble figuring it out.

They were combined to try to get an overall sense of how the AAC is likely to stack up in FB and MBB next season.

If one were to make a single summary statement, it is that most who've responded don't expect a lot of change from last season to this season.

If true, then next season would be somewhat lackluster, like 2021-22 was for the conference, with only two top 25 FB teams and two NCAA teams, but the conference is due for a 3-NCAA-bid season, and it has some improving programs (ECU, Tulsa, & SMU), plus UC, UCF, & Houston.

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(05-17-2022 11:43 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-17-2022 08:20 PM)TripleA Wrote:  The 2 sports should have been separated into 2 polls. Too many options.

Maybe, maybe not. Those who voted in the poll didn't seem to have any trouble figuring it out.

They were combined to try to get an overall sense of how the AAC is likely to stack up in FB and MBB next season.

If one were to make a single summary statement, it is that most who've responded don't expect a lot of change from last season to this season.

If true, then next season would be somewhat lackluster, like 2021-22 was for the conference, with only two top 25 FB teams and two NCAA teams, but the conference is due for a 3-NCAA-bid season, and it has some improving programs (ECU, Tulsa, & SMU), plus UC, UCF, & Houston.

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Hey, not trying to be critical. Just making observations for discussion.

Considering you can vote multiple times, when you look at the number of posts and views on almost any other thread of interest, 48 total votes isn't much at all.

I was simply suggesting if you split it into 2 polls with less choices, you would likely get a better response, that's all. JMO.

No need for you to defend anything. You can take or leave the suggestion. It's your poll.