(12-14-2021 08:29 AM)b2b Wrote: (12-13-2021 12:03 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: (12-13-2021 11:59 AM)ken d Wrote: The question remains whether UMass is sufficiently committed to finding a conference home for its football program to abandon its stance on only joining as a football only affiliate. It's hard to see how UMass football adds enough value to any FBS conference to justify an invitation.
Exactly - that's the key. Everything that has happened points to the answer to that question being "No" here... and I don't blame UMass. The MAC is the only league where it could even plausibly make sense and, even then, I think a lot of people are underestimating just how much of a step down the MAC is compared to the A-10 for basketball. UMass moving all sports to C-USA or the Sun Belt would be completely unpalatable both in terms of all-sports geography and quality. The only leagues that UMass would be willing to move all sports are the P5 and AAC, yet those leagues aren't calling. (If the AAC didn't add UMass with this fall's mass expansion that was almost entirely focused on new markets regardless of football quality, I don't believe UMass will ever have a chance with them.)
That would all make perfect sense if UMass actually had good basketball. This whole saga has just shown how utterly clueless the UMass administration has been all this time. They've had a "we'll build it after we find a home" kind of attitude since they left the MAC. The commitment has never been there from them. IDK if it's a cultural thing or what but they just don't seem to get it.
The thing is that conference realignment is often counterintuitive in this way. The worse that your signature program (whether it’s football or basketball) might be performing, the more that you actually need the protection of higher revenue, exposure and/or prestige from being in a better conference. The happiest athletic department in the SEC isn’t Alabama or Florida. Instead, it’s Vanderbilt - they’re the ones that truly thank their lucky stars everyday that they made the right conference decision many decades ago because their alternative would be where Tulane and Rice are today. I went to DePaul for law school and believe me that they are still amazed at their good fortune of getting into the Big East when they did instead of now way more than Villanova does. The fact that UMass and DePaul basketball haven’t been playing well actually magnifies how fortunate they are to be in their respective leagues already.
So, I could see UMass looking at this situation and not looking at it is as, “Man, our basketball program is down on the dumps, so we might as well try to help out football on going to an all-sports home.”
Instead; they’re probably saying, “Yikes! Our basketball program is down in dumps and the A-10 is the best league that we could ever hope to get into outside of the P5 and Big East! Why would we throw that all away for G5 football?”
That last point is critical: when the AAC defections to the Big 12 happen, the A-10 is arguably going to be the best basketball conference top to bottom outside of the P5 and Big East. Realistically, it’s the best basketball conference that UMass could ever hope to be in and they’re fortunate enough to be already there.
Once again, I think this board is often very football-focused, but people need to internalize that going from a major basketball conference that’s arguably going to be the best league outside of the 6 power basketball conferences to a midmajor basketball league in order to have a G5 football home is going to cause a lot of consternation.
Plus, that’s assuming that the MAC is interested in the first place. They really wanted WKU and MTSU as a specific pair where WKU had the better on-field/court sports while MTSU brought the fast-growing market and recruiting location that’s near WKU but not overlapping. That pair together brought more value than the sum of the individual parts.
A UMass/WKU addition to the MAC doesn’t have the same network effects. UMass had a large population base on paper, but it’s not fast growing, a good recruiting location or a real geographic fit with the league outside of Buffalo. (Nashville is closer to the Midwest than what a lot people seem to have in their minds along with being an easy flight.)
It just doesn’t seem to be a match for either UMass or the MAC. The parties want totally different things out of any conference realignment.