right now I count-
1- Georgia
2- Alabama
3- Ohio St
4- Michigan St- if they win out, they would be 12-1 and Big Ten champs. yeah, that would be in, even with today.

I think Oregon and Oklahoma are mostly in just with winning out. I think if Alabama beats Georgia, it's possible only 1 gets in. Michigan needs Ohio St to beat Michigan St to control their own destiny at that point.

I think those are really the only 7 teams right now in really good shape for the playoff. Cincy needs a ton of help.

Only MSU controls their own destiny along with Bama and UGa. OSU does not once they apply H2H vs Oregon at 12-1. They looked like the 2nd best team in the country, but they’d finish 5th if Bama, OU, Oregon all won out. Crazy but that’s how it’d play out.

I’m not even sure H2H should be the first tie breaker. But considering Oregon’s injuries and the fact they beat them in Columbus is too much for the Buckeyes to overcome. Also, the B1G West winner is looking a lot weaker than originally anticipated:

1. Bama 12-1
2. UGa 12-1
3. OU 13-0
4. Oregon 12-1
5. OSU 12-1
6. UC 13-0

Very unlikely all of this happens though. If it did, UCs opponent in the NY6 would be so bad because they wouldn’t be eligible to play OSU. The Orange and Sugar would eat the next best B1G and SEC teams. UC would have no opportunity to prove anything on the field.

(11-07-2021 05:32 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Only MSU controls their own destiny along with Bama and UGa. OSU does not once they apply H2H vs Oregon at 12-1. They looked like the 2nd best team in the country, but they’d finish 5th if Bama, OU, Oregon all won out. Crazy but that’s how it’d play out.

I’m not even sure H2H should be the first tie breaker. But considering Oregon’s injuries and the fact they beat them in Columbus is too much for the Buckeyes to overcome. Also, the B1G West winner is looking a lot weaker than originally anticipated:

1. Bama 12-1
2. UGa 12-1
3. OU 13-0
4. Oregon 12-1
5. OSU 12-1
6. UC 13-0

Very unlikely all of this happens though. If it did, UCs opponent in the NY6 would be so bad because they wouldn’t be eligible to play OSU. The Orange and Sugar would eat the next best B1G and SEC teams. UC would have no opportunity to prove anything on the field.

If Ohio St beats Michigan St, Michigan, and then Big Ten west champion, they are a lock in the playoff. Either Alabama(if they lose) or Oregon or Oklahoma would be sitting out.

(11-06-2021 11:48 PM)stever20 Wrote:  right now I count-
1- Georgia
2- Alabama
3- Ohio St
4- Michigan St- if they win out, they would be 12-1 and Big Ten champs. yeah, that would be in, even with today.

I think Oregon and Oklahoma are mostly in just with winning out. I think if Alabama beats Georgia, it's possible only 1 gets in. Michigan needs Ohio St to beat Michigan St to control their own destiny at that point.

I think those are really the only 7 teams right now in really good shape for the playoff. Cincy needs a ton of help.

I think Oklahoma is 100% in if they win out. Oregon is 98% in. But not 100%. Ohio State is also 98% in, but could get caught in a trap-comparison with Oregon.

What are Oklahoma State‘s chances if they win out? They would likely have two victories over Oklahoma in that scenario, but not much else.


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(11-07-2021 09:10 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  What are Oklahoma State‘s chances if they win out? They would likely have two victories over Oklahoma in that scenario, but not much else.


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they would need a ton of help IMO. Definitely would need a Oregon loss. And frankly might need a Big Ten West win in the CCG to have any shot at all.

Let’s think like the committee.

Undefeated or 1-loss Georgia: in
1-loss Alabama: in
1-loss Oregon: in
1-loss Ohio St: in
1-loss Michigan: in
1-loss Michigan St: in
Undefeated Oklahoma: needs help (struggled to win all season)
Undefeated Cincinnati: needs help

This is probably it.

(11-07-2021 09:19 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Let’s think like the committee.

Undefeated or 1-loss Georgia: in
1-loss Alabama: in
1-loss Oregon: in
1-loss Ohio St: in
1-loss Michigan: in
1-loss Michigan St: in
Undefeated Oklahoma: needs help (struggled to win all season)
Undefeated Cincinnati: needs help

This is probably it.

I think of those above, only one-loss Alabama is in for sure, because to do that, they would have to win the SEC title. One loss Ohio State is 99% in, but could theoretically lose out to Oregon.

IMO, a one-loss Georgia could miss out, if they get *wiped out* in the SEC title game.

(11-07-2021 09:19 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Let’s think like the committee.

Undefeated or 1-loss Georgia: in
1-loss Alabama: in
1-loss Oregon: in
1-loss Ohio St: in
1-loss Michigan: in
1-loss Michigan St: in
Undefeated Oklahoma: needs help (struggled to win all season)
Undefeated Cincinnati: needs help

This is probably it.

Michigan has to be a champion to be safe. If Alabama beats Georgia, Oregon wins out, and Michigan St wins out- Michigan will be out. Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, and Michigan St would be your 4 playoff teams.

If Ohio St. drops another game, how is Oregon in over an undefeated Cincy?

(11-07-2021 09:45 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  If Ohio St. drops another game, how is Oregon in over an undefeated Cincy?

Cincy is going to have a tough time moving past teams ahead of them right now, and Oregon is ahead of them right now. Cincy just does not have a lot of chances to improve its stature, given the nature of the AAC schedule, especially when the CFP is apparently unimpressed with SMU and Houston.

Cincy needs teams ahead of it, like Oregon, to lose. That's its ticket to the CFP. Fortunately for them, some teams above them are sure to lose, like MSU did yesterday.

(11-07-2021 09:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-07-2021 09:45 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  If Ohio St. drops another game, how is Oregon in over an undefeated Cincy?

Cincy is going to have a tough time moving past teams ahead of them right now, and Oregon is ahead of them right now. Cincy just does not have a lot of chances to improve its stature, given the nature of the AAC schedule, especially when the CFP is apparently unimpressed with SMU and Houston.

Cincy needs teams ahead of it, like Oregon, to lose. That's its ticket to the CFP. Fortunately for them, some teams above them are sure to lose, like MSU did yesterday.

Again how do you justify ranking them ahead if Ohio St. loses? That's what I'm asking. Cincy would have better wins and no losses. Oregon doesn't control their own destiny imo. They need Ohio St. to win out or other teams to lose.

(11-07-2021 09:57 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-07-2021 09:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-07-2021 09:45 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  If Ohio St. drops another game, how is Oregon in over an undefeated Cincy?

Cincy is going to have a tough time moving past teams ahead of them right now, and Oregon is ahead of them right now. Cincy just does not have a lot of chances to improve its stature, given the nature of the AAC schedule, especially when the CFP is apparently unimpressed with SMU and Houston.

Cincy needs teams ahead of it, like Oregon, to lose. That's its ticket to the CFP. Fortunately for them, some teams above them are sure to lose, like MSU did yesterday.

Again how do you justify ranking them ahead if Ohio St. loses? That's what I'm asking. Cincy would have better wins and no losses. Oregon doesn't control their own destiny imo. They need Ohio St. to win out or other teams to lose.

Teams do not move backwards in the CFP rankings if they don't lose, they only move up. We can argue over who is more deserving of being in the top 4 but that's a fools errand, the committee already gave us the rankings. As long as Oregon continues to win they will be in the top 4.

Something to think about, using your logic, Alabama should be ranked between 6-9, they only have 1 quality win against Ole Miss... according to the current rankings that win should be valued less than Oregon and Cincinnati's best wins(OSU/ND). It didn't work that way though and it hasn't in past years either.

College football either needs to go back to the pre BCS model where we could have split national champs or we need the expanded playoff with a G5 AQ. We'll never get passed this annual argument any other way.

(11-07-2021 08:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If Ohio St beats Michigan St, Michigan, and then Big Ten west champion, they are a lock in the playoff. Either Alabama(if they lose) or Oregon or Oklahoma would be sitting out.

In a typical world, you’d be right. But we have the H2H quirk that is applied.

Maybe the more relevant comparison is OSU vs OU? If OU continues to squeak by, it may not be enough. But… they have road games @Baylor @OSU, then probably OSU again in Jerry World.

It’s a tough stretch. You could have Ohio St get in if OU looks ugly, but I don’t want to be in that position of leaving out 13-0 OU. I’d imagine style points would decide it.

(11-07-2021 10:36 AM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(11-07-2021 09:57 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-07-2021 09:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-07-2021 09:45 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  If Ohio St. drops another game, how is Oregon in over an undefeated Cincy?

Cincy is going to have a tough time moving past teams ahead of them right now, and Oregon is ahead of them right now. Cincy just does not have a lot of chances to improve its stature, given the nature of the AAC schedule, especially when the CFP is apparently unimpressed with SMU and Houston.

Cincy needs teams ahead of it, like Oregon, to lose. That's its ticket to the CFP. Fortunately for them, some teams above them are sure to lose, like MSU did yesterday.

Again how do you justify ranking them ahead if Ohio St. loses? That's what I'm asking. Cincy would have better wins and no losses. Oregon doesn't control their own destiny imo. They need Ohio St. to win out or other teams to lose.

Teams do not move backwards in the CFP rankings if they don't lose, they only move up. We can argue over who is more deserving of being in the top 4 but that's a fools errand, the committee already gave us the rankings. As long as Oregon continues to win they will be in the top 4.

Something to think about, using your logic, Alabama should be ranked between 6-9, they only have 1 quality win against Ole Miss... according to the current rankings that win should be valued less than Oregon and Cincinnati's best wins(OSU/ND). It didn't work that way though and it hasn't in past years either.

College football either needs to go back to the pre BCS model where we could have split national champs or we need the expanded playoff with a G5 AQ. We'll never get passed this annual argument any other way.

I'm not even going to read the rest of your post because your first line is just blatantly not true.

(11-07-2021 09:35 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-07-2021 09:19 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Let’s think like the committee.

Undefeated or 1-loss Georgia: in
1-loss Alabama: in
1-loss Oregon: in
1-loss Ohio St: in
1-loss Michigan: in
1-loss Michigan St: in
Undefeated Oklahoma: needs help (struggled to win all season)
Undefeated Cincinnati: needs help

This is probably it.

Michigan has to be a champion to be safe. If Alabama beats Georgia, Oregon wins out, and Michigan St wins out- Michigan will be out. Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, and Michigan St would be your 4 playoff teams.

You’re right; I meant to say conference champions for all of these but Georgia

Ok, what happens if Georgia wins out, Alabama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and Oklahoma loses? Does Texas A&M go to the SEC championship vs Georgia instead of Alabama??

(11-07-2021 10:37 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(11-07-2021 08:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If Ohio St beats Michigan St, Michigan, and then Big Ten west champion, they are a lock in the playoff. Either Alabama(if they lose) or Oregon or Oklahoma would be sitting out.

In a typical world, you’d be right. But we have the H2H quirk that is applied.

Maybe the more relevant comparison is OSU vs OU? If OU continues to squeak by, it may not be enough. But… they have road games @Baylor @OSU, then probably OSU again in Jerry World.

It’s a tough stretch. You could have Ohio St get in if OU looks ugly, but I don’t want to be in that position of leaving out 13-0 OU. I’d imagine style points would decide it.

the committee would have to view them as equals for the h2h to matter. With what Ohio St has left- Purdue who will be in the top 20, Michigan St and Michigan- both top 10 teams, and then possibly Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game- Oregon just doesn't have the quality to match that.

(11-07-2021 10:46 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  Ok, what happens if Georgia wins out, Alabama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and Oklahoma loses? Does Texas A&M go to the SEC championship vs Georgia instead of Alabama??

yeah A&M would go to the SEC championship. would be a 3 way tie at 6-2 and A&M would have beaten both Alabama and Auburn.

(11-07-2021 10:40 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-07-2021 10:36 AM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(11-07-2021 09:57 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-07-2021 09:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-07-2021 09:45 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  If Ohio St. drops another game, how is Oregon in over an undefeated Cincy?

Cincy is going to have a tough time moving past teams ahead of them right now, and Oregon is ahead of them right now. Cincy just does not have a lot of chances to improve its stature, given the nature of the AAC schedule, especially when the CFP is apparently unimpressed with SMU and Houston.

Cincy needs teams ahead of it, like Oregon, to lose. That's its ticket to the CFP. Fortunately for them, some teams above them are sure to lose, like MSU did yesterday.

Again how do you justify ranking them ahead if Ohio St. loses? That's what I'm asking. Cincy would have better wins and no losses. Oregon doesn't control their own destiny imo. They need Ohio St. to win out or other teams to lose.

Teams do not move backwards in the CFP rankings if they don't lose, they only move up. We can argue over who is more deserving of being in the top 4 but that's a fools errand, the committee already gave us the rankings. As long as Oregon continues to win they will be in the top 4.

Something to think about, using your logic, Alabama should be ranked between 6-9, they only have 1 quality win against Ole Miss... according to the current rankings that win should be valued less than Oregon and Cincinnati's best wins(OSU/ND). It didn't work that way though and it hasn't in past years either.

College football either needs to go back to the pre BCS model where we could have split national champs or we need the expanded playoff with a G5 AQ. We'll never get passed this annual argument any other way.

I'm not even going to read the rest of your post because your first line is just blatantly not true.

You are correct, my apologies. I tried to find the week by week rankings, haven't found it yet... what I was getting at, if you're a P5 school ranked in the top 4 in the initial rankings and you win out, you're in, ranking 1-4 might change but they still make it... please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think there's ever been a P5 school in the initial CFP top 4 that hasn't made the playoff without losing... Am I wrong?