This Q-and-A item is near the bottom of Chris Vannini’s article today at The Athletic. The part after the question is Vannini’s answer. Obviously.

https://theathletic.com/2930470/2021/11/...ed_article

Quote:What are the chances that C-USA actually folds? If MTSU and WKU leave for the MAC, do you think that the conference will be able to backfill with NMSU, UMass, UConn and FCS schools? Or will no one trust it and the remaining members all look for new homes? — Jesse K.

I know a lot of people have declared Conference USA dead multiple times in recent weeks, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. The league has worked really, really hard to survive, and getting at least $18 million in exit fees gives it something to work with.

If Conference USA loses Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee to the MAC but adds Liberty, New Mexico State, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State, that would get the conference to seven members. League sources have told me they’d like to get to at least 10. UConn football has been in the discussion, but it’s not known yet whether the Huskies would join. UMass would like to join C-USA, and it’s been under consideration. Outside of that, it has to look at more FCS schools. Tarleton State, which is transitioning to FCS from Division II, is an option. Some FCS schools would prefer C-USA get larger, to at least 12 members for the sake of stability, so the league may try to add several FCS schools. A lot of work has been put into the WAC football project, but if Sam Houston does make the jump, that would make more WAC schools open to following.

All potential C-USA candidates have been waiting to see what’s left of C-USA first. That means a MAC decision on WKU/MTSU by the end of the week is probably the next shoe to drop before those other schools fully commit to C-USA.

Quote:Tarleton State, which is transitioning to FCS from Division II, is an option. Some FCS schools would prefer C-USA get larger, to at least 12 members for the sake of stability, so the league may try to add several FCS schools. A lot of work has been put into the WAC football project, but if Sam Houston does make the jump, that would make more WAC schools open to following.

So the schools Vannini feels confident enough to mention are Tarleton and another TX WAC school.

(11-03-2021 11:21 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

Quote:Tarleton State, which is transitioning to FCS from Division II, is an option. Some FCS schools would prefer C-USA get larger, to at least 12 members for the sake of stability, so the league may try to add several FCS schools. A lot of work has been put into the WAC football project, but if Sam Houston does make the jump, that would make more WAC schools open to following.

So the schools Vannini feels confident enough to mention are Tarleton and another TX WAC school.

Stephen F. Austin, most likely.

10 full members make sense; cusa doesn't want to be at minimum 8
12 is likely but i wouldn't be shocked to see even 14 (this is where Tarleton or similar or fb only might come in)

other wac school = SFA?

(11-03-2021 11:21 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

Quote:Tarleton State, which is transitioning to FCS from Division II, is an option. Some FCS schools would prefer C-USA get larger, to at least 12 members for the sake of stability, so the league may try to add several FCS schools. A lot of work has been put into the WAC football project, but if Sam Houston does make the jump, that would make more WAC schools open to following.

So the schools Vannini feels confident enough to mention are Tarleton and another TX WAC school.

SFA or Lamar?

I’m happy for Tarleton St if it happens for them. I just don’t understand the seemingly sudden rise to wanting to add them. I’ve lived in Texas for over 32 years, been on every Division I Texas campus except 3 or 4, and I know a lot about the colleges here. Maybe someone can enlighten me. If they are a hidden gem, I’d love to know what they have!

(11-03-2021 11:28 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:21 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

Quote:Tarleton State, which is transitioning to FCS from Division II, is an option. Some FCS schools would prefer C-USA get larger, to at least 12 members for the sake of stability, so the league may try to add several FCS schools. A lot of work has been put into the WAC football project, but if Sam Houston does make the jump, that would make more WAC schools open to following.

So the schools Vannini feels confident enough to mention are Tarleton and another TX WAC school.

Stephen F. Austin, most likely.

Enrollment is declined at SFA. It’s hard to imagine how they would fund such a Move since athletics rely on a heavy infusion of $ from the university. Falling enrollment= falling revenue/

(11-03-2021 11:45 AM)OscarWildeCat Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:28 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:21 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

Quote:Tarleton State, which is transitioning to FCS from Division II, is an option. Some FCS schools would prefer C-USA get larger, to at least 12 members for the sake of stability, so the league may try to add several FCS schools. A lot of work has been put into the WAC football project, but if Sam Houston does make the jump, that would make more WAC schools open to following.

So the schools Vannini feels confident enough to mention are Tarleton and another TX WAC school.

Stephen F. Austin, most likely.

Enrollment is declined at SFA. It’s hard to imagine how they would fund such a Move since athletics rely on a heavy infusion of $ from the university. Falling enrollment= falling revenue/

maybe administration sees fbs as a means to reverse that

(11-03-2021 11:29 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:21 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

Quote:Tarleton State, which is transitioning to FCS from Division II, is an option. Some FCS schools would prefer C-USA get larger, to at least 12 members for the sake of stability, so the league may try to add several FCS schools. A lot of work has been put into the WAC football project, but if Sam Houston does make the jump, that would make more WAC schools open to following.

So the schools Vannini feels confident enough to mention are Tarleton and another TX WAC school.

SFA or Lamar?

Abilene Christian basketball especially would be a huge get. They beat the Longhorns as a 14-seed in the NCAA Tournament this past March. Football isn't terrible either.

(11-03-2021 11:33 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I’m happy for Tarleton St if it happens for them. I just don’t understand the seemingly sudden rise to wanting to add them. I’ve lived in Texas for over 32 years, been on every Division I Texas campus except 3 or 4, and I know a lot about the colleges here. Maybe someone can enlighten me. If they are a hidden gem, I’d love to know what they have!

Disclaimer: I don't know squat about Tarleton that's not on wikipedia.

What do they have? They have an administration that's saying "Yes" and trying to move up. They seem to have an ability to spend money. (No idea where that money's coming from, but they're laying out money to upgrade from Division II to Division I, building facilities, etc etc.)

Most of the FCS-to-FBS candidates have been FCS for a long time, and didn't upgrade in 2000 or 2010 for reasons.

So even if Tarleton isn't a full-fledged Division I member until (I think) 2024-25, they're a cheap date. They'll say "yes" to a C-USA offer. They may not help you meet numbers officially, but they help your case for a waiver if anybody is reluctant to give a waiver.

(11-03-2021 12:12 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:29 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:21 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

Quote:Tarleton State, which is transitioning to FCS from Division II, is an option. Some FCS schools would prefer C-USA get larger, to at least 12 members for the sake of stability, so the league may try to add several FCS schools. A lot of work has been put into the WAC football project, but if Sam Houston does make the jump, that would make more WAC schools open to following.

So the schools Vannini feels confident enough to mention are Tarleton and another TX WAC school.

SFA or Lamar?

Abilene Christian basketball especially would be a huge get. They beat the Longhorns as a 14-seed in the NCAA Tournament this past March. Football isn't terrible either.

They also have great facilities

(11-03-2021 11:29 AM)Huan Wrote:  10 full members make sense; cusa doesn't want to be at minimum 8
12 is likely but i wouldn't be shocked to see even 14 (this is where Tarleton or similar or fb only might come in)

other wac school = SFA?

But more FCS means difficulty in transition. They won't count as FBS opponents the first year.

(11-03-2021 12:32 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:29 AM)Huan Wrote:  10 full members make sense; cusa doesn't want to be at minimum 8
12 is likely but i wouldn't be shocked to see even 14 (this is where Tarleton or similar or fb only might come in)

other wac school = SFA?

But more FCS means difficulty in transition. They won't count as FBS opponents the first year.

And this is the best case scenario for UMass, where we might be considered for Football only: helping to guarantee those FBS games.

Still not great in terms of chances, but that's what should be pitched (also potentially for a basketball scheduling purpose where we can offer games against teams like NMSU and UTEP...but still not much to offer).

(11-03-2021 12:13 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:33 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I’m happy for Tarleton St if it happens for them. I just don’t understand the seemingly sudden rise to wanting to add them. I’ve lived in Texas for over 32 years, been on every Division I Texas campus except 3 or 4, and I know a lot about the colleges here. Maybe someone can enlighten me. If they are a hidden gem, I’d love to know what they have!

Disclaimer: I don't know squat about Tarleton that's not on wikipedia.

What do they have? They have an administration that's saying "Yes" and trying to move up. They seem to have an ability to spend money. (No idea where that money's coming from, but they're laying out money to upgrade from Division II to Division I, building facilities, etc etc.)

Most of the FCS-to-FBS candidates have been FCS for a long time, and didn't upgrade in 2000 or 2010 for reasons.

So even if Tarleton isn't a full-fledged Division I member until (I think) 2024-25, they're a cheap date. They'll say "yes" to a C-USA offer. They may not help you meet numbers officially, but they help your case for a waiver if anybody is reluctant to give a waiver.

Getting a recent Division II school seems like a really bad and/or desperate idea.

Sam and Jax have really low ceilings, but have been FCS 25-35 years and have been competitive in FCS.

(11-03-2021 12:32 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:29 AM)Huan Wrote:  10 full members make sense; cusa doesn't want to be at minimum 8
12 is likely but i wouldn't be shocked to see even 14 (this is where Tarleton or similar or fb only might come in)

other wac school = SFA?

But more FCS means difficulty in transition. They won't count as FBS opponents the first year.

The Sun Belt phased in transitioning teams, right? The idea is to stagger the transitions, so that two teams start their transition to FBS immediately and two more a year or two after that, so that the second group of transitioning teams can count games against the first two as games against FBS opponents.

(11-03-2021 12:34 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 12:32 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:29 AM)Huan Wrote:  10 full members make sense; cusa doesn't want to be at minimum 8
12 is likely but i wouldn't be shocked to see even 14 (this is where Tarleton or similar or fb only might come in)

other wac school = SFA?

But more FCS means difficulty in transition. They won't count as FBS opponents the first year.

And this is the best case scenario for UMass, where we might be considered for Football only: helping to guarantee those FBS games.

Still not great in terms of chances, but that's what should be pitched (also potentially for a basketball scheduling purpose where we can offer games against teams like NMSU and UTEP...but still not much to offer).

wouldn't the grace period starting their first transition year negate that violation?

(11-03-2021 12:36 PM)Huan Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 12:34 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 12:32 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:29 AM)Huan Wrote:  10 full members make sense; cusa doesn't want to be at minimum 8
12 is likely but i wouldn't be shocked to see even 14 (this is where Tarleton or similar or fb only might come in)

other wac school = SFA?

But more FCS means difficulty in transition. They won't count as FBS opponents the first year.

And this is the best case scenario for UMass, where we might be considered for Football only: helping to guarantee those FBS games.

Still not great in terms of chances, but that's what should be pitched (also potentially for a basketball scheduling purpose where we can offer games against teams like NMSU and UTEP...but still not much to offer).

wouldn't the grace period starting their first transition year negate that violation?

Not entirely sure if the first year counts or when they start counting. Based on other posts in this thread it seems like the first couple of years would be iffy for FBS scheduling requirements.

(11-03-2021 12:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 12:13 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:33 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I’m happy for Tarleton St if it happens for them. I just don’t understand the seemingly sudden rise to wanting to add them. I’ve lived in Texas for over 32 years, been on every Division I Texas campus except 3 or 4, and I know a lot about the colleges here. Maybe someone can enlighten me. If they are a hidden gem, I’d love to know what they have!

Disclaimer: I don't know squat about Tarleton that's not on wikipedia.

What do they have? They have an administration that's saying "Yes" and trying to move up. They seem to have an ability to spend money. (No idea where that money's coming from, but they're laying out money to upgrade from Division II to Division I, building facilities, etc etc.)

Most of the FCS-to-FBS candidates have been FCS for a long time, and didn't upgrade in 2000 or 2010 for reasons.

So even if Tarleton isn't a full-fledged Division I member until (I think) 2024-25, they're a cheap date. They'll say "yes" to a C-USA offer. They may not help you meet numbers officially, but they help your case for a waiver if anybody is reluctant to give a waiver.

Getting a recent Division II school seems like a really bad and/or desperate idea.

Sam and Jax have really low ceilings, but have been FCS 25-35 years and have been competitive in FCS.

Well, the situation in CUSA is really bad and pretty desperate

I don't *think* Tarleton gets a spot, but with 20-30 schools and no clear favorites now that James Madison has upgraded, I figure Tarleton has about as good a shot as anybody. Everybody's got blemishes, Tarleton's blemish is that they were Divsion 2 five minutes ago.

But their geography is pretty good--an hour from DFW airports. They're upgrading to an FBS-capable stadium. 10,000+ undergrads.

CUSA's gotta add somebody, and Tarleton is somebody. Their biggest drawback looks to be their Division I transition, and the thing about that is--it's temporary. Everyone else's drawbacks (location, chronic budget crises, etc) are not temporary.

CUSA can now just become a southwest / gulf coast conference
All of the East and north left. You got Florida and Alabama Texas New Mexico and Louisiana now just fill in in betwween

(11-03-2021 12:36 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 12:32 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2021 11:29 AM)Huan Wrote:  10 full members make sense; cusa doesn't want to be at minimum 8
12 is likely but i wouldn't be shocked to see even 14 (this is where Tarleton or similar or fb only might come in)

other wac school = SFA?

But more FCS means difficulty in transition. They won't count as FBS opponents the first year.

The Sun Belt phased in transitioning teams, right? The idea is to stagger the transitions, so that two teams start their transition to FBS immediately and two more a year or two after that, so that the second group of transitioning teams can count games against the first two as games against FBS opponents.

But the grace period is two years.

That would be a reason for wanting to have ten+ teams in two five+ team divisions ... then two FCS transitioning schools can be in one division, and another one or two in the other division, and the FCS teams skip playing each other cross division in the second year of their transition (presumably 2023). Perhaps Liberty and NMSU can help with home and away contracts that they need to step out of to get the FCS schools the OOC home FBS game they would need.