Lets say the Sun Belt goes to 14 by taking Marshall, Old Dominion, James Madison, and Southern Miss.
Then the MAC goes to 14 by taking WKU and MTSU.
That would leave CUSA with just UTEP, FIU, and LA Tech.
Would it be safe to say that CUSA would have to fold, leaving us with 9 conferences?

Sounds like it’s all apart of the ESPN master plan. Kinda comical to me that some of these conferences are expanding to 14 just cause.

Also yawn at WKU and MTSU in the MAC. Less rivalries the better!!

It certainly sounds and looks Like ESPN might be on that particular mission. Arguably they might even be promising rewards if AAC, which is now at 14, along with 14 team SBC and a 14 team MAC are the only FBS conferences viably left on the map when all is said and done. Not only would ESPN be the top G4 dog, but also the only dog East of the Rockies.

I’m not saying this is all a bad thing (here’s hoping Marshall is part of an appealing 14 team SBC) but it’s almost impossible to watch all this without seeing ESPNs shadow behind the whole thing.

ESPN couldn't get the Big XII or Mountain West so they chose to collude with the AAC and Sun Belt and possibly MAC to extinguish their Fox/CBS competitor and strengthen their media monopoly in college athletics.

They knew CUSA would be an easy target because the schools there don't have the financial and political backing to challenge them on anti-trust violations the way the Big XII and Mountain West do.

(10-22-2021 04:55 AM)andy98 Wrote:  Lets say the Sun Belt goes to 14 by taking Marshall, Old Dominion, James Madison, and Southern Miss.
Then the MAC goes to 14 by taking WKU and MTSU.
That would leave CUSA with just UTEP, FIU, and LA Tech.
Would it be safe to say that CUSA would have to fold, leaving us with 9 conferences?

Well, Marshall and USM are a done deal. Getting to 14 in the SBC is still a tall task. There are still questions about the viability of a 14 team league and will the reduced per member media distribution be a net gain because of reduced travel. If that is the case then maybe it happens.

As far as the MAC is concerned. I have no clue. Other than playing occasional MAC opponents I don’t know much about that league.

(10-22-2021 04:55 AM)andy98 Wrote:  Lets say the Sun Belt goes to 14 by taking Marshall, Old Dominion, James Madison, and Southern Miss.
Then the MAC goes to 14 by taking WKU and MTSU.
That would leave CUSA with just UTEP, FIU, and LA Tech.
Would it be safe to say that CUSA would have to fold, leaving us with 9 conferences?

It would be a likely scenario at that point. C-USA probably wouldn’t be able to fill in with enough FCS teams and Liberty almost certainly wouldn’t want to give up independence for such an unstable situation.

What we don’t know yet is whether the MAC would be willing to swoop in for the kill. That conference has been remarkably stable in recent years and may not want to do anything to change its chemistry.

ESPN and Disney are the devil.

You really gotta feel for LaTech and UTEP if this happens. Both programs have long and storied history of championship play in their past. Recall when LaTech was a dominant national force in Women's Hoops. FIU really can't complain as they are a fairly recent add to top (or near-top) tier.

I think I read a few places that MWC said they absolutely would not take UTEP. Wonder if the WAC can revive football and take UTEP, UNM and LaTech? By all rights, Texas Tech should be in that group as they're closer to that region, though we know they'd never willingly leave the Big XII.

Goodbye, CUSA 3.0. CUSA2.0...I mean the American will miss you. The Metro as well.

Nominally, yes, but in spirit CUSA will live on as the new AAC.

It can likely survive with 5 or more teams. If theres only 3 teams left it will be dissolved. Unless somehow WAC FCS teams commit to make the move up to FBS.

Not unless C-USA makes a deal with A-Sun and WAC with a few FCS call ups.

WAC wants to be FBS, ASun wants to be FBS. Both conferences could work with C-USA until other schools are ready. WAC becoming FBS would give UTEP and La. Tech a lifeline. ASUN can give FIU a lifeline. C-USA can be a none football conference in the future taken in WAC and ASUN schools + Little Rock and UTA.

C-USA all sports membership.
FIU
La. Tech
UTEP
Little Rock
UTA
Grand Canyon
FGCU
Lipscomb
Jacksonville
Bellarmine

C-USA/A-Sun/WAC football
West:
New Mexico State
UTEP
SFAU
La. Tech
Lamar
Missouri State

East:
Liberty
FIU
EKU
Jacksonville State
North Alabama
Chattanooga


Future C-USA:
California Baptist
Grand Canyon
Seattle U.
Little Rock
UTA
Utah Valley

Bellarmine
FGCU
Jacksonville
Lipscomb
North Florida
Stetson

ASUN FBS
Liberty
FIU
North Carolina A&T
Austin Peay State
Chattanooga
EKU
Kennesaw State
North Alabama
Youngstown State
Jacksonville State
Stony Brook
UMASS.

WAC FBS
New Mexico State
UTEP
La. Tech
SFAU
Sam Houston State
Lamar
ACU
UTRGV
Southern Utah
Dixie State
UCA
Tarleton State
Missouri State
North Dakota State football only
South Dakota State football only

(10-22-2021 09:26 AM)GoodOwl Wrote:  You really gotta feel for LaTech and UTEP if this happens. Both programs have long and storied history of championship play in their past. Recall when LaTech was a dominant national force in Women's Hoops. FIU really can't complain as they are a fairly recent add to top (or near-top) tier.

I think I read a few places that MWC said they absolutely would not take UTEP. Wonder if the WAC can revive football and take UTEP, UNM and LaTech? By all rights, Texas Tech should be in that group as they're closer to that region, though we know they'd never willingly leave the Big XII.

Goodbye, CUSA 3.0. CUSA2.0...I mean the American will miss you. The Metro as well.

La Tech has kinda made their own bed with this one. It's never a great idea to burn bridges, and Tech has repeatedly nuked them with the Sun-Belt. Every decision La Tech has made conference wise up to this point in a vacuum makes some sense, but their leadership going above and beyond to make it clear they think they are above the Sun-Belt and specifically the UL's sets them up for this. Relationships at the administrative/presidential level are very underrated aspects of realignment. It won't get you in if you were never a serious candidate, but if 2 schools are similar and 1 is agreeable and easy to work with and the other is a pain in the arse that thinks they are above you that can make all the difference.

With ASUN's interest in moving to FBS, I wonder if something happens there. The footprints are similar.

Would make a new Southwest and Appalachian conference. Hire new presidents from within the Sunbelt. Have a bowl at the end of the year... 9-10 members each once you split the Conf USA schools. This is most sensible. UMass can go to the MAC for half price if they want for football. Same for UConn football only.

Appalachian: Liberty/FIU, JMU, Marshall, ODU, WKU, MTSU, GSU, GS, CC, App St.

SouthWest: LaTech, ULM, ULL, USM, Troy, S. Bama, Ark St, NMSU, UTEP, Texas St

Clean and compact. No broken feelings. ESPN can write both contracts as they can easily buy out the remaining schools deals with CBSSN/FB.

(10-22-2021 04:55 AM)andy98 Wrote:  Lets say the Sun Belt goes to 14 by taking Marshall, Old Dominion, James Madison, and Southern Miss.

Then the MAC goes to 14 by taking WKU and MTSU.

That would leave CUSA with just UTEP, FIU, and LA Tech.

Would it be safe to say that CUSA would have to fold, leaving us with 9 conferences?

Would it be safe to say that CUSA would have to fold? Well, no ... with the CFP share hanging on holding onto FBS status, and with $1m additional per FB member up to 10, there would be incentive to return to eight qualifying full-members and up to 10 FB members, even if it required accepting schools who in previous circumstances CUSA would not have invited.

Is it possible that they would be unable to organize things and fold? ... Certainly it's possible! But it's not safe to suppose that they would certainly fold, even in that scenario.

And one has to wonder whether somebody has actually been watching how the MAC Presidents behave when they treat it as automatic that the MAC would make a move that would tip CUSA from five members that would certainly be able to survive to three members that might or might not be able to survive.

Surely WKU and possibly MTSU have been reaching out to discuss things with the MAC, given the uncertainty hovering over CUSA, and surely the MAC would have been willing to discuss things with them, but projecting from this to the MAC electing to make the deliberate attempt to "kill off" a fellow FBS conference seems to be drawing quite a long bow.

(10-22-2021 10:40 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(10-22-2021 04:55 AM)andy98 Wrote:  Lets say the Sun Belt goes to 14 by taking Marshall, Old Dominion, James Madison, and Southern Miss.

Then the MAC goes to 14 by taking WKU and MTSU.

That would leave CUSA with just UTEP, FIU, and LA Tech.

Would it be safe to say that CUSA would have to fold, leaving us with 9 conferences?

Would it be safe to say that CUSA would have to fold? Well, no ... with the CFP share hanging on holding onto FBS status, and with $1m additional per FB member up to 10, there would be incentive to return to eight qualifying full-members and up to 10 FB members, even if it required accepting schools who in previous circumstances CUSA would not have invited.

Is it possible that they would be unable to organize things and fold? ... Certainly it's possible! But it's not safe to suppose that they would certainly fold, even in that scenario.

And one has to wonder whether somebody has actually been watching how the MAC Presidents behave when they treat it as automatic that the MAC would make a move that would tip CUSA from five members that would certainly be able to survive to three members that might or might not be able to survive.

Surely WKU and possibly MTSU have been reaching out to discuss things with the MAC, given the uncertainty hovering over CUSA, and surely the MAC would have been willing to discuss things with them, but projecting from this to the MAC electing to make the deliberate attempt to "kill off" a fellow FBS conference seems to be drawing quite a long bow.

ASun Ted would work with those 3.

ASun Ted would love to get his hands on that CUSA shell

...I'm thinking that the Expanded Playoff deal may have had some influence on this decimation of C-USA (well, the "$$$/power" ESPN deal is primary, but...), as there will be one less 'autobid' (if there is going to be such a thing) needed for the playoff. Even at 12 teams, seems like there aren't enough 'at large' slots even if C-USA expires... that's why they may go to 16 sooner or later, or heck, even 24 (I'm pretty sure FCS (Div. I-AA for we old codgers) has had a 24-team playoff for quite awhile now).

Once the expanded playoff produces the $$$$, I think the powers that be will be amenable to getting it as big as it can be, reasonably... this is assuming the BIG big cats (i.e., top 48 programs or so) don't just go off and start their own 'premier league' and shut everybody else out...

(10-22-2021 10:43 AM)solohawks Wrote:  ASun Ted would work with those 3.

ASun Ted would love to get his hands on that CUSA shell

Quite ... even at the cost of conceding the exit fees to the three incumbent schools, the whole problem of the move to FBS status being based on a misreading of the NCAA By-Laws goes away if three incumbents invite a set of FCS schools to come up two by two ... especially given that the departures from CUSA are timed with the departures from the AAC, which seem to be 2023 at the earliest. With the two year grace period in the by-law, that would give CUSA until 2025 to get back to eight qualifying full members.

(10-22-2021 10:47 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(10-22-2021 10:43 AM)solohawks Wrote:  ASun Ted would work with those 3.

ASun Ted would love to get his hands on that CUSA shell

Quite ... even at the cost of conceding the exit fees to the three incumbent schools, the whole problem of the move to FBS status being based on a misreading of the NCAA By-Laws goes away if three incumbents invite a set of FCS schools to come up two by two ... especially given that the departures from CUSA are timed with the departures from the AAC, which seem to be 2023 at the earliest. With the two year grace period in the by-law, that would give CUSA until 2025 to get back to eight qualifying full members.

ASun Ted has a good working relationship with the WAC and can be the guiding hand in the all of this. The WAC and ASun have 13 teams each.

What i'm envisioning is the CUSA shell hosts schools that are interested in FBS
The ASun hosts the eastern FCS and non football schools
The WAC hosts the western FCS and non football schools

Over time, you build up an eastern and western division of the CUSA for FBS and the WAC and ASun can always form a joint FCS conference if the numbers fall too low with all other sports remaining in the geographically friendly ASun and WAC and have room to grow.

One way it could end up looking after 10 years:

ASUN TED's LONG TERM GOAL
*=Football Only
FBS CUSA East: Liberty, EKU, Jax St, UNA, Kennesaw, FIU*
FBS CUSA West: LA Tech, SHSU, Lamar, SFA, UTEP*, NMSU*

FCS ASUN East: FIU, FGCU, Stetson, Jacksonville, N Florida
FCS ASUN West: Bellarmine, Lipscomb, Austin Peay, C Arkansas,

FCS WAC West: Seattle, Cal Baptist, Grand Canyon, Utah Valley, Dixie St, SUU
FCS WAC East: UTEP, NMSU, UTRGV, Tarleton St, Abilene Christian,

ASUN WAC FCS League: Austin Peay, C Arkansas, UTRGV, Tarleton St, ACU, Dixie St, SUU

(10-22-2021 09:58 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-22-2021 09:26 AM)GoodOwl Wrote:  You really gotta feel for LaTech and UTEP if this happens. Both programs have long and storied history of championship play in their past. Recall when LaTech was a dominant national force in Women's Hoops. FIU really can't complain as they are a fairly recent add to top (or near-top) tier.

I think I read a few places that MWC said they absolutely would not take UTEP. Wonder if the WAC can revive football and take UTEP, UNM and LaTech? By all rights, Texas Tech should be in that group as they're closer to that region, though we know they'd never willingly leave the Big XII.

Goodbye, CUSA 3.0. CUSA2.0...I mean the American will miss you. The Metro as well.

La Tech has kinda made their own bed with this one. It's never a great idea to burn bridges, and Tech has repeatedly nuked them with the Sun-Belt. Every decision La Tech has made conference wise up to this point in a vacuum makes some sense, but their leadership going above and beyond to make it clear they think they are above the Sun-Belt and specifically the UL's sets them up for this. Relationships at the administrative/presidential level are very underrated aspects of realignment. It won't get you in if you were never a serious candidate, but if 2 schools are similar and 1 is agreeable and easy to work with and the other is a pain in the arse that thinks they are above you that can make all the difference.

They have a situation where Northern Louisiana is overcrowded with schools-La Tech, UL-Monroe, Northwestern State, LSU-Shreveport, Southern-Shreveport and Grambling. They really need some consolidation, so La Tech is trying to distinguish itself.