(09-23-2021 08:19 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 07:58 AM)solohawks Wrote:  There is a lot of concern that the AAC contract will be cut because of the 3 BIG 12 departures

Is there not similar concern the MWC contract will be cut if Air Force and Colorado St leave?

Define “similar”, LOL.

UC, UCF, and UH are/were the 3 biggest brands by far in the AAC.

AFA/CSU are good brands imho but they do not stand above the rest of the MWC. Certainly not the same dynamic.

Three biggest "football" brands (to be specific). And even Navy as a football brand is as big in many respects.

(09-23-2021 08:27 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:37 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  How many times I have to say this?

Air Force no
Colorado State no
UAB no
Rice no
Army no
North Texas no
Georgia State no
ODU no

None of them have a name beand in football right now, and fan basr is not great in some.

Tipping the old peach schnapps late night again, are we?

lol. I might have to get a t-shirt made that says "Fan basr is not great in some" to wear to away games.

(09-23-2021 08:27 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:37 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  How many times I have to say this?

Air Force no
Colorado State no
UAB no
Rice no
Army no
North Texas no
Georgia State no
ODU no

None of them have a name beand in football right now, and fan basr is not great in some.

Tipping the old peach schnapps late night again, are we?

Old Dazzy chuckled at your post.

I'm not sold on the AF and CSU defections either. Is it worth the exit fee to move to a lateral conference?

In other posts here people have speculated that the MWC should go after SMU and Memphis, but those were quickly shot down as neither school would likely pay $10M to the AAC to go to a non-power conference.

From what I can find, to leave the MWC for the 2023 season, AF and CSU would have to pay $5M plus not get any conference distributions during the 2022-23 academic year, which would be in the same $10M range that people say would cause SMU and Memphis to not leave the AAC. If they don't move until the 2024 season, the exit fee would just be $5M (or equal to conference tv payouts if more than $5M).

Is an AAC without UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati going still going to make significantly more TV money than the MWC to make the move worthwhile? I wouldn't think so, not unless the Big 12 expands again with schools only from MWC - but in that scenario AF and CSU could be among those schools to get the call up, which would definitely be more money than the MWC would get. If multiple schools leave the MWC for the Big 12, and neither AF or CSU are among them, then sure at that point it could be beneficial to move to the AAC, but would need to know what kind of TV money each conference would be able to get after the defections.

(09-22-2021 10:37 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  How many times I have to say this?

Air Force no
Colorado State no
UAB no
Rice no
Army no
North Texas no
Georgia State no
ODU no

None of them have a name beand in football right now, and fan basr is not great in some.

Army doesn't have a brand name in football but Boise CC does? They have their own annual timeslot on CBS.

Time to be mean because you've begged for it, I'm sorry you weren't smart enough to get into these private schools you hate but let it go already.

(09-23-2021 08:27 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:37 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  How many times I have to say this?

Air Force no
Colorado State no
UAB no
Rice no
Army no
North Texas no
Georgia State no
ODU no

None of them have a name beand in football right now, and fan basr is not great in some.

Tipping the old peach schnapps late night again, are we?

He's a lunatic.

(09-23-2021 09:53 AM)Phlipper33 Wrote:  I'm not sold on the AF and CSU defections either. Is it worth the exit fee to move to a lateral conference?

In other posts here people have speculated that the MWC should go after SMU and Memphis, but those were quickly shot down as neither school would likely pay $10M to the AAC to go to a non-power conference.

From what I can find, to leave the MWC for the 2023 season, AF and CSU would have to pay $5M plus not get any conference distributions during the 2022-23 academic year, which would be in the same $10M range that people say would cause SMU and Memphis to not leave the AAC. If they don't move until the 2024 season, the exit fee would just be $5M (or equal to conference tv payouts if more than $5M).

Is an AAC without UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati going still going to make significantly more TV money than the MWC to make the move worthwhile? I wouldn't think so, not unless the Big 12 expands again with schools only from MWC - but in that scenario AF and CSU could be among those schools to get the call up, which would definitely be more money than the MWC would get. If multiple schools leave the MWC for the Big 12, and neither AF or CSU are among them, then sure at that point it could be beneficial to move to the AAC, but would need to know what kind of TV money each conference would be able to get after the defections.

My understanding is it's not as much about the money. Between increased media and increased travel cost, it could potentially be breakeven for those two schools depending on how much more travel would be to swap NV/CA flights for TX/PA flights.

It seems to be those schools being proactive to find a life boat, expecting Boise(and maybe SDSU if the P's go to super conferences) to leave for the Big 12 at some point. Once Boise and SDSU are gone, the conference has very little value compared to an AAC even without Memphis (again in a situation where more teams leave both conferences).

Matt Brown and Fischer discussed on the Going for Two Podcast Monday.

(09-23-2021 11:16 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 09:53 AM)Phlipper33 Wrote:  I'm not sold on the AF and CSU defections either. Is it worth the exit fee to move to a lateral conference?

In other posts here people have speculated that the MWC should go after SMU and Memphis, but those were quickly shot down as neither school would likely pay $10M to the AAC to go to a non-power conference.

From what I can find, to leave the MWC for the 2023 season, AF and CSU would have to pay $5M plus not get any conference distributions during the 2022-23 academic year, which would be in the same $10M range that people say would cause SMU and Memphis to not leave the AAC. If they don't move until the 2024 season, the exit fee would just be $5M (or equal to conference tv payouts if more than $5M).

Is an AAC without UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati going still going to make significantly more TV money than the MWC to make the move worthwhile? I wouldn't think so, not unless the Big 12 expands again with schools only from MWC - but in that scenario AF and CSU could be among those schools to get the call up, which would definitely be more money than the MWC would get. If multiple schools leave the MWC for the Big 12, and neither AF or CSU are among them, then sure at that point it could be beneficial to move to the AAC, but would need to know what kind of TV money each conference would be able to get after the defections.

My understanding is it's not as much about the money. Between increased media and increased travel cost, it could potentially be breakeven for those two schools depending on how much more travel would be to swap NV/CA flights for TX/PA flights.

It seems to be those schools being proactive to find a life boat, expecting Boise(and maybe SDSU if the P's go to super conferences) to leave for the Big 12 at some point. Once Boise and SDSU are gone, the conference has very little value compared to an AAC even without Memphis (again in a situation where more teams leave both conferences).

Matt Brown and Fischer discussed on the Going for Two Podcast Monday.

Agree. If AFA and CSU move to the American, they would do so with long-term considerations (the thinking being that, after further future realignment, it will be much better to be an AAC member than a MWC member).

(09-23-2021 08:23 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 07:58 AM)solohawks Wrote:  There is a lot of concern that the AAC contract will be cut because of the 3 BIG 12 departures

Is there not similar concern the MWC contract will be cut if Air Force and Colorado St leave?

Depends on who you ask.

AAC Fans:
-UCF, Houston, and Cincy were valuable, but did not represent TX/OU value compared to the remaining teams
-AFA and CSU represent the #3 and #4 most valuable properties in the MWC
-MWC will take a haircut if they leave

MWC Fans:
-UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati made up 99.2% of the media value
-AAC loot from ESPN will drop to $27/year after they depart
-MWC is now more valuable than the AAC
-CSU and AFA are worthless

No conference fan base is as reasonable and grounded as that of the AAC.

(09-23-2021 11:36 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  No conference fan base is as reasonable and grounded as that of the AAC.

Except for Wichita State and Navy, every AAC-member fan-base has been left standing at the altar. Some of us, more than once. And Wichita State fans of a certain age know what it’s like to have a football team, and then not have one.

So there is a certain degree of hard-knocks reality, built-in to our opinions and expectations.

(09-23-2021 11:36 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 08:23 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 07:58 AM)solohawks Wrote:  There is a lot of concern that the AAC contract will be cut because of the 3 BIG 12 departures

Is there not similar concern the MWC contract will be cut if Air Force and Colorado St leave?

Depends on who you ask.

AAC Fans:
-UCF, Houston, and Cincy were valuable, but did not represent TX/OU value compared to the remaining teams
-AFA and CSU represent the #3 and #4 most valuable properties in the MWC
-MWC will take a haircut if they leave

MWC Fans:
-UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati made up 99.2% of the media value
-AAC loot from ESPN will drop to $27/year after they depart
-MWC is now more valuable than the AAC
-CSU and AFA are worthless

No conference fan base is as reasonable and grounded as that of the AAC.

That's an insult. I am hugely unreasonable and anything-but-grounded regarding my Memphis fanship.

I would think Colorado state and AFA would demand the AAC pay their MWC buyout, they got the funds from Houston, Cincinnati and UCF buyout.

(09-23-2021 11:36 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 08:23 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 07:58 AM)solohawks Wrote:  There is a lot of concern that the AAC contract will be cut because of the 3 BIG 12 departures

Is there not similar concern the MWC contract will be cut if Air Force and Colorado St leave?

Depends on who you ask.

AAC Fans:
-UCF, Houston, and Cincy were valuable, but did not represent TX/OU value compared to the remaining teams
-AFA and CSU represent the #3 and #4 most valuable properties in the MWC
-MWC will take a haircut if they leave

MWC Fans:
-UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati made up 99.2% of the media value
-AAC loot from ESPN will drop to $27/year after they depart
-MWC is now more valuable than the AAC
-CSU and AFA are worthless

No conference fan base is as reasonable and grounded as that of the AAC.

The AAC was always temporary. I understood believing the conference was good and almost always deserving of a NY6 bid. I never understood the hyper fandom of the conference as a conference because it was always a halfway house. The schools were either destined for power status or destined for something less than the current AAC configuration.

Note that I’m not saying I ever liked conference fanhood but at least B1G, MAC, and SEC schools could reasonably expect to still be together.

(09-23-2021 12:37 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 11:36 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 08:23 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 07:58 AM)solohawks Wrote:  There is a lot of concern that the AAC contract will be cut because of the 3 BIG 12 departures

Is there not similar concern the MWC contract will be cut if Air Force and Colorado St leave?

Depends on who you ask.

AAC Fans:
-UCF, Houston, and Cincy were valuable, but did not represent TX/OU value compared to the remaining teams
-AFA and CSU represent the #3 and #4 most valuable properties in the MWC
-MWC will take a haircut if they leave

MWC Fans:
-UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati made up 99.2% of the media value
-AAC loot from ESPN will drop to $27/year after they depart
-MWC is now more valuable than the AAC
-CSU and AFA are worthless

No conference fan base is as reasonable and grounded as that of the AAC.

The AAC was always temporary. I understood believing the conference was good and almost always deserving of a NY6 bid. I never understood the hyper fandom of the conference as a conference because it was always a halfway house. The schools were either destined for power status or destined for something less than the current AAC configuration.

Note that I’m not saying I ever liked conference fanhood but at least B1G, MAC, and SEC schools could reasonably expect to still be together.

For me the fandom has less to do with the conference potentially staying together forever. It was more about the best of the rest getting together and pissing off the entitled. A few made it to the next level, and now we’re ready for the next group to come in and upset everyone. Hopefully so we can leave them on day.


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