(08-17-2021 04:22 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  We are facing problems that are incredibly large and complex - and there is a role to be played by government, private industry, and everything in between.

This just sounds to me like another massive power grab and 'one size fits all' government program.

Let the government take care of the government... Let the people and businesses 'do what they do'.

If the government would like to move its facilities and stop providing housing to people in hazardous areas, that's their job. If they want to indemnify people from loss from intentional decisions, INCLUDING the one to choose to live in a beach community, even as a renter... then I have an issue.

And it wasn't previous government inaction... It was previous government action that concerns me. The wealthy have ALWAYS prospered when the government has intervened in such matters.

ALWAYS

(08-17-2021 05:17 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(08-17-2021 04:22 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  We are facing problems that are incredibly large and complex - and there is a role to be played by government, private industry, and everything in between.

This just sounds to me like another massive power grab and 'one size fits all' government program.

Let the government take care of the government... Let the people and businesses 'do what they do'.

If the government would like to move its facilities and stop providing housing to people in hazardous areas, that's their job. If they want to indemnify people from loss from intentional decisions, INCLUDING the one to choose to live in a beach community, even as a renter... then I have an issue.

And it wasn't previous government inaction... It was previous government action that concerns me. The wealthy have ALWAYS prospered when the government has intervened in such matters.

ALWAYS

One size fits all? You just said it was a generality, and I said to an extent it is, managed retreat is a term for a process. Any major climate adaptation will likely be similar in scope but will almost certainly be tailored to the community and consider their needs. In some instances, managed retreat won’t make sense.

That final perspective leaves millions of poor and middle class people holding the bag for a problem that is far bigger than just one person’s decision. These coastal communities are full of people who didn’t move there to be closer to the water as a choice - they were born, moved for a job, whatever. Heck, I even have an example of a coastal community distinctly devoid of beaches, but beaches keep being the focus.

We’ll just keep going around in circles here, though. About changing risk profiles, socioeconomic issues, etc. I fundamentally believe that government can have a role when there are externalities impacting their citizens, especially when the cause is out side of their control.

To George’s original point, and one you’re getting at, there is a role to also price risk via insurance appropriately, which is starting to happen a bit. That will help reduce the migration to the coast, or at least strengthen the flood insurance program so we don’t keep holding the bag for repetitive loses (flood insurance in the US is primarily run by the NFP).

(08-17-2021 06:08 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  One size fits all? You just said it was a generality, and I said to an extent it is, managed retreat is a term for a process. Any major climate adaptation will likely be similar in scope but will almost certainly be tailored to the community and consider their needs. In some instances, managed retreat won’t make sense.

You just seem to LOOK for something to argue about, no matter how petty.

'Managed Retreat' IS a generality. It is not a plan. You know this. YOu can describe 'managed retreat' as a plan, but it means NOTHING until you see what that actually looks like... when it really BECOMES a plan. I have described a version of managed retreat. When the government puts a PLAN together, it will be more of a 'one size fits all'... and it will absolutely (as it always has) favor the wealthy. You can argue against that all you want, but the proof is self-evident.

Quote:That final perspective leaves millions of poor and middle class people holding the bag for a problem that is far bigger than just one person’s decision. These coastal communities are full of people who didn’t move there to be closer to the water as a choice - they were born, moved for a job, whatever. Heck, I even have an example of a coastal community distinctly devoid of beaches, but beaches keep being the focus.

It only leaves that perspective if like you, one chooses to assign the absolute worst outcomes and intentions to someone's ideas and run with that as your baseline..... and so you simply want to pass that problem (either directly or indirectly) on to millions MORE poor and middle class people who didn't get the benefit (whatever that was, including that job) of living in a coastal community?? Who perhaps (because they were more risk averse) chose a more inland community?? If you happened to choose a coastal community that wasn't a beach, so what?? How is that any different from choosing a hill and there being mudslides or a lightning created wildfire or a sink hole or any of dozens of other things beyond anyone's control?

If the coastal community is being wiped out, the job they moved there for will be gone... just like when a military base or large factory closes. That happens to poor and middle class people every day... and there are resources available to them... and there would be for these people as well. Your INSISTENCE that you manage people's lives from soup to nuts is my problem.

Quote:We’ll just keep going around in circles here, though. About changing risk profiles, socioeconomic issues, etc. I fundamentally believe that government can have a role when there are externalities impacting their citizens, especially when the cause is out side of their control.

I do too and have articulated it. It simply isn't to indemnify people from the consequences of their choices, even if the ultimate outcome is outside their control. I've made this pretty clear so I don't understand why you keep repeating this as if I haven't. You may disagree, but that doesn't mean I haven't said it.

Quote:To George’s original point, and one you’re getting at, there is a role to also price risk via insurance appropriately, which is starting to happen a bit. That will help reduce the migration to the coast, or at least strengthen the flood insurance program so we don’t keep holding the bag for repetitive loses (flood insurance in the US is primarily run by the NFP).

Except this isn't flood and wouldn't be covered under most flood policies. Floods recede and aren't tidal nor even semi-permanent. Places that would be underwater would essentially be uninsurable. Ask the people with the two homes in Surfside.

I bought some land as an investment 40 years ago. Things haven't turned out like I thought. I like Lad's idea that the government should pay me for the changes that keep my investment from being what I expected.

My relatives in New York were concerned for me with Ida last week. I told them no, I think it's just going to be a Louisiana (and parts near about there) storm. Turns out I should have been warning them.

8 dead in the NYC area overnight due to unprecedented overnight flooding there (and that number will likely go up - there are way too many underground garages and basement apartments in New York). 6 dead in Queens alone, including 4 people who died in their apartment.

When Ida can maintain that type of strength all the way from Louisiana to New York, we have a real problem now. And things will get worse.

(09-02-2021 06:32 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  My relatives in New York were concerned for me with Ida last week. I told them no, I think it's just going to be a Louisiana (and parts near about there) storm. Turns out I should have been warning them.

8 dead in the NYC area overnight due to unprecedented overnight flooding there (and that number will likely go up - there are way too many underground garages and basement apartments in New York). 6 dead in Queens alone, including 4 people who died in their apartment.

When Ida can maintain that type of strength all the way from Louisiana to New York, we have a real problem now. And things will get worse.

First time ever?

I'm sad to hear any loss of life and any destruction of property that can't be easily remedied.

Being on the eastern side of a hurricane, where most of the rain falls, is always going to be problematic. If the hurricane is slow moving then doubly so (think of Harvey and the 48" of rain it dumped in SE Houston near Berry Bayou). Now add buildings that weren't built to sustain high winds and storm sewers not built for storms (aka heavy rains) and you see the results.

You can't build (or over build) on flood plains or below sea level (New Orleans) and expect anything else, can you?

After the Great Storm of 1900 they built the seawall (3 miles by 17 feet) in Galveston and raised the 'entire' city from eight to seventeen feet. In New Orleans after Katrina they fixed the dikes and the pumps I believe and that was about it. Oh yeah, they moved a substantial portion of the underclass out of New Orleans and out of Louisiana.

There have been storms and floods throughout recorded history. Now it just happens in more densely populated areas (over taking flood control measures) with more costly real estate.

(09-02-2021 09:44 AM)MerseyOwl Wrote:  I'm sad to hear any loss of life and any destruction of property that can't be easily remedied.
Being on the eastern side of a hurricane, where most of the rain falls, is always going to be problematic. If the hurricane is slow moving then doubly so (think of Harvey and the 48" of rain it dumped in SE Houston near Berry Bayou). Now add buildings that weren't built to sustain high winds and storm sewers not built for storms (aka heavy rains) and you see the results.
You can't build (or over build) on flood plains or below sea level (New Orleans) and expect anything else, can you?
After the Great Storm of 1900 they built the seawall (3 miles by 17 feet) in Galveston and raised the 'entire' city from eight to seventeen feet. In New Orleans after Katrina they fixed the dikes and the pumps I believe and that was about it. Oh yeah, they moved a substantial portion of the underclass out of New Orleans and out of Louisiana.
There have been storms and floods throughout recorded history. Now it just happens in more densely populated areas (over taking flood control measures) with more costly real estate.

Every time I go to Amsterdam, I find myself thinking, "Damn, this is the way Houston should have been built."

I don't know what kind of storms roll in from the North Sea (Mersey, you may have a better idea of that than I do), but Amsterdam has survived and done well as a city below sea level for centuries, and the extensive network of canals seems to play a major role in reducing storm damage.

(09-02-2021 11:45 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 09:44 AM)MerseyOwl Wrote:  I'm sad to hear any loss of life and any destruction of property that can't be easily remedied.
Being on the eastern side of a hurricane, where most of the rain falls, is always going to be problematic. If the hurricane is slow moving then doubly so (think of Harvey and the 48" of rain it dumped in SE Houston near Berry Bayou). Now add buildings that weren't built to sustain high winds and storm sewers not built for storms (aka heavy rains) and you see the results.
You can't build (or over build) on flood plains or below sea level (New Orleans) and expect anything else, can you?
After the Great Storm of 1900 they built the seawall (3 miles by 17 feet) in Galveston and raised the 'entire' city from eight to seventeen feet. In New Orleans after Katrina they fixed the dikes and the pumps I believe and that was about it. Oh yeah, they moved a substantial portion of the underclass out of New Orleans and out of Louisiana.
There have been storms and floods throughout recorded history. Now it just happens in more densely populated areas (over taking flood control measures) with more costly real estate.

Every time I go to Amsterdam, I find myself thinking, "Damn, this is the way Houston should have been built."

I don't know what kind of storms roll in from the North Sea (Mersey, you may have a better idea of that than I do), but Amsterdam has survived and done well as a city below sea level for centuries, and the extensive network of canals seems to play a major role in reducing storm damage.

The Dutch’s success with managing floods goes back to the great flood in the early 1950s when the Dutch got even more serious about flood defense. They eventually built giant storm surge gates/barriers that protect their country from storm surge and plenty of other flood defense systems as part of the Delta Works.

The Dutch are incredibly pragmatic when it comes to infrastructure and much more willing than the US as a whole (or even states/cities) to invest in large public works.

(09-02-2021 06:32 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  My relatives in New York were concerned for me with Ida last week. I told them no, I think it's just going to be a Louisiana (and parts near about there) storm. Turns out I should have been warning them.

8 dead in the NYC area overnight due to unprecedented overnight flooding there (and that number will likely go up - there are way too many underground garages and basement apartments in New York). 6 dead in Queens alone, including 4 people who died in their apartment.

When Ida can maintain that type of strength all the way from Louisiana to New York, we have a real problem now. And things will get worse.

3”+ of rain in Manhattan in one hour - highest in record! Just an absolutely insane amount of moisture.

Did Ida remnants combine with another front?

(09-02-2021 12:09 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 06:32 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  My relatives in New York were concerned for me with Ida last week. I told them no, I think it's just going to be a Louisiana (and parts near about there) storm. Turns out I should have been warning them.

8 dead in the NYC area overnight due to unprecedented overnight flooding there (and that number will likely go up - there are way too many underground garages and basement apartments in New York). 6 dead in Queens alone, including 4 people who died in their apartment.

When Ida can maintain that type of strength all the way from Louisiana to New York, we have a real problem now. And things will get worse.

3”+ of rain in Manhattan in one hour - highest in record! Just an absolutely insane amount of moisture.

Did Ida remnants combine with another front?

One summer in the mid 70s I was working a shutdown at a petrol refinery on the Channel.

The company had a no rainout policy so when it started to rain we all crawled in to an atmospheric crude heater to wait it out. After about an hour we were told to go. It had rained over 16" in less than an hour and a half in Deer Park (?). I think the Rice / Med Center area got almost 18". I can't exactly remember all the details, but as I made my way home my car floated now and then until it drifted and hit the curb and gained traction. I was probably lucky it was light enough to float.

(09-02-2021 09:28 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 06:32 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  My relatives in New York were concerned for me with Ida last week. I told them no, I think it's just going to be a Louisiana (and parts near about there) storm. Turns out I should have been warning them.

8 dead in the NYC area overnight due to unprecedented overnight flooding there (and that number will likely go up - there are way too many underground garages and basement apartments in New York). 6 dead in Queens alone, including 4 people who died in their apartment.

When Ida can maintain that type of strength all the way from Louisiana to New York, we have a real problem now. And things will get worse.

First time ever?

It was the first time ever that the weather service issued a flash flood emergency (they didn't have to do that when Sandy hit). I'm not sure what else you're asking specifically - obviously it's not the first time a hurricane that hit the US elsewhere eventually found its way up the east coast but this one dropped unprecedented amounts of moisture.

NY was under a tornado watch prior to the storms, but I just don't think they anticipated that type of rain. I told my siblings today that (1) I think New York's climate has already changed a bit and they're probably more like Maryland weather for the summers now (or perhaps DC). They've been complaining all summer that the humidity there has been unbearable (and they've already had a lot more summer rain than normal). And (2) I told them more weather services need to adopt the flash flood warning system that the local weathercasters at spacecityweather maintain (they issue a 1 to 5 rating on days where Houston might experience really bad flooding based on weather forecasts).

Hurricanes have ratings. Tornadoes (after the fact) have ratings. I think people would take flooding issues much more seriously if they used the same cat 1 through cat 5 type warning system.

(09-02-2021 04:56 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 09:28 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 06:32 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  My relatives in New York were concerned for me with Ida last week. I told them no, I think it's just going to be a Louisiana (and parts near about there) storm. Turns out I should have been warning them.

8 dead in the NYC area overnight due to unprecedented overnight flooding there (and that number will likely go up - there are way too many underground garages and basement apartments in New York). 6 dead in Queens alone, including 4 people who died in their apartment.

When Ida can maintain that type of strength all the way from Louisiana to New York, we have a real problem now. And things will get worse.

First time ever?

It was the first time ever that the weather service issued a flash flood emergency (they didn't have to do that when Sandy hit). I'm not sure what else you're asking specifically - obviously it's not the first time a hurricane that hit the US elsewhere eventually found its way up the east coast but this one dropped unprecedented amounts of moisture.

NY was under a tornado watch prior to the storms, but I just don't think they anticipated that type of rain. I told my siblings today that (1) I think New York's climate has already changed a bit and they're probably more like Maryland weather for the summers now (or perhaps DC). They've been complaining all summer that the humidity there has been unbearable (and they've already had a lot more summer rain than normal). And (2) I told them more weather services need to adopt the flash flood warning system that the local weathercasters at spacecityweather maintain (they issue a 1 to 5 rating on days where Houston might experience really bad flooding based on weather forecasts).

Hurricanes have ratings. Tornadoes (after the fact) have ratings. I think people would take flooding issues much more seriously if they used the same cat 1 through cat 5 type warning system.

It seemed to me that you were saying "see what global warming has wrought, you unbelievers".

It may well be the first time The NY weather service issued a flash flood warning...in the last 140 years or so. It may not be the first time a hurricane dumped tons of water in that area. We just don't know everything that happened in the previous 10,000,000,000 years. The difference, of course, is that now everything is built up.

I get this all the time from environmentalists. They think "the first time in history" is the same as" the first time ever". I tend to think the end of the last Ice Age produced a lot of strange weather...and not for the first time ever.

Yeah, maybe a different warning/rating system would give better results. But if it is the first time in living memory, I don't think just a FF4 rating is going to mean much to most people.

(09-02-2021 04:47 PM)MerseyOwl Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 12:09 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 06:32 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  My relatives in New York were concerned for me with Ida last week. I told them no, I think it's just going to be a Louisiana (and parts near about there) storm. Turns out I should have been warning them.

8 dead in the NYC area overnight due to unprecedented overnight flooding there (and that number will likely go up - there are way too many underground garages and basement apartments in New York). 6 dead in Queens alone, including 4 people who died in their apartment.

When Ida can maintain that type of strength all the way from Louisiana to New York, we have a real problem now. And things will get worse.

3”+ of rain in Manhattan in one hour - highest in record! Just an absolutely insane amount of moisture.

Did Ida remnants combine with another front?

One summer in the mid 70s I was working a shutdown at a petrol refinery on the Channel.

The company had a no rainout policy so when it started to rain we all crawled in to an atmospheric crude heater to wait it out. After about an hour we were told to go. It had rained over 16" in less than an hour and a half in Deer Park (?). I think the Rice / Med Center area got almost 18". I can't exactly remember all the details, but as I made my way home my car floated now and then until it drifted and hit the curb and gained traction. I was probably lucky it was light enough to float.

I remember once my senior year when heavy rain set cars floating at the end of my block. Late 60's.