The unofficial online home for fans of the UAB Blazers. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

The conservative short term outlook for expansion.

The ACC schools are locked in till 2036. Sure there will be talks with Clemson and FSU, but nothing will happen for quite a few years.

The Big 10 is not excited by Kansas and Iowa State. Unless somehow Missouri could be swayed then nothing will happen with the Big 10 in the near future.

To me the PAC 12 is the one that may try to acquire 4 schools in the Central time zone. For now let's say they don't add anyone.

Using this as a conservative look at UAB's possibilities, what is possible?

A. Big 12 will add 2 schools ASAP. Add Boise St and BYU for 2022 or 2023.

B. AAC requires a 27 month notice to leave. So UC, Houston, Memphis and UCF accept an invite and start the 27 month requirement.

C. The AAC needs to backfull. Decide to get back to 10, maybe more. AAC invites: UAB, Georgia State and Liberty, maybe more.

The 10 school AAC would be:
1. UAB
2. GA State
3. Liberty
4. ECU
5. USF
6. Navy/Wichita State
7. SMU
8. Temple
9. Tulane
10. Tulsa

Would you like that AAC?

Definitely would still like to be in the AAC in that scenario. I'd maybe sub in Marshall for either GA St or Liberty.

I would like it less than if we were in with the current AAC teams, but still more than what we have for now.

I'm curious, why do you think SMU would not be a good possibility for the Big 12?

Not ideal, but absolutely an improvement.

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i don't think Houston and Memphis will end up being picked. They will be blocked by TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor until those schools are absorbed into an alliance with what is left with the PAC, which I believe is going to lose its California AAU schools to a division in the Big Ten.

The ACC grant of rights isn't ironclad, IMO. Everything is negotiable. No way in Hades that Clemson, FSU, Miami and UNC sit still while South Carolina, Vandy, etc., make $400 million more than them over a decade. The AAC is as fragile as the Big 12 for the same reasons OU and Texas left. There is too big a gap between the brand value of the top half and bottom half of the league to sustain as is.

This is going to be a big fight between Fox and ESPN.

I think the ACC will survive but will look a lot more like the 2013 Big East, minus the top teams and hoops schools, when this is done over the next 5 years, and it will add UCF, Cincinnati and possibly one or two more. Just like the AAC is gonna look like the Old C-USA and C-USA is gonna look like the old Sun Belt.

10-team AAC will end up looking like this:
1. UAB
2. Houston
3. Memphis
4. ECU
5. USF
6. Navy/Wichita State
7. SMU
8. Temple
9. Tulane
10. Tulsa

UAB will be the first add based on a revived football program, a new $175 million stadium, a new $22 million football facility, a new $6 million basketball facility, more than $50 million raised for athletics to bring back football, the best overall basketball pedigree of possible candidates, a central, solid market, past history with the AAC schools, a strong academic profile, a shared national-level and world-ranked urban research university profile and more than $1 billion in campus construction since the last time AAC rivals saw the place. Completely different landscape and campus/city climate. These are UAB's institutional peers. UAB was left behind for lack of commitment; UAB since then has been as committed as any AAC program -- and has board of trustees backing for all of this, including support for a move to the American. It shows.

If Memphis and/or Houston end up departing also, I think Georgia State is on the come-up. New facilities, Atlanta is big enough to support another quality program, major growing university, perfect location in the eastern half of footprint. Marshall, ODU will get consideration too. Southern Miss maybe also. Some may want FAU if UCF is gone to have another Florida presence for recruiting. And Liberty has money. Lots of money.

Am I the only one who thinks USM has maybe hit their ceiling?

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(07-30-2021 11:03 AM)Smaug Wrote:  Am I the only one who thinks USM has maybe hit their ceiling?

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USM is a proud football program that has historically done more with less than just about anyone in FBS. Punched big above weight class for so long ... Loyal fan base, lots of history. They picked a bad time to fall off in performance. It's also not coincidence that that drop off coincides with all these new programs in their recruiting territory since the late 1990s at the same time they were losing rivalry games with Memphis, Louisville and ECU. It's as bad for USM as 2006-2013 timing was for UAB.

(07-30-2021 10:43 AM)bftb Wrote:  I would like it less than if we were in with the current AAC teams, but still more than what we have for now.

I'm curious, why do you think SMU would not be a good possibility for the Big 12?

The Big 12 already has Dallas covered by having TCU. Plus the fan support at SMU isn't very good.

If TCU were to leave for the PAC then SMU would probably replace them.

(07-30-2021 11:07 AM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  

(07-30-2021 11:03 AM)Smaug Wrote:  Am I the only one who thinks USM has maybe hit their ceiling?

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USM is a proud football program that has historically done more with less than just about anyone in FBS. Punched big above weight class for so long ... Loyal fan base, lots of history. They picked a bad time to fall off in performance. It's also not coincidence that that drop off coincides with all these new programs in their recruiting territory since the late 1990s at the same time they were losing rivalry games with Memphis, Louisville and ECU. It's as bad for USM as 2006-2013 timing was for UAB.

They get more bang for their athletic buck than most people, to be sure, or at least they used to. I think one bad coaching hire showed how fragile it all was.

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(07-30-2021 11:10 AM)SMUfan Wrote:  

(07-30-2021 10:43 AM)bftb Wrote:  I would like it less than if we were in with the current AAC teams, but still more than what we have for now.

I'm curious, why do you think SMU would not be a good possibility for the Big 12?

The Big 12 already has Dallas covered by having TCU. Plus the fan support at SMU isn't very good.

If TCU were to leave for the PAC then SMU would probably replace them.

Could happen, and SMU is one of the few G5 programs with a shot at this simply because as a brand, they were formerly "in the club" back in the day. The Ponies aren't new money.

But I don't think there will be a Big 12 to join by 2025.

When TCU ends up in the Pac, it will be rebranded as the Big Pacific, absorbing the rest of the Big 12 after the California AAU schools and Colorado (also AAU) join the Big Ten. No Big 12 school is going to replace relationships with Oklahoma for relationship with G5 programs.


Big Pacific Conference (10)
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
Washington State
Oregon State
Arizona
Arizona State
Utah
BYU*

It comes down to BYU and Houston after West Virginia decides to go East instead. It’s a close call, but ultimately BYU gets the nod when Tech, TCU and Baylor veto another in-state rival. Candidates like Boise State, Colorado State and SMU are also considered, but with the California opposition to BYU gone and with them technically not being a G5, they are the biggest brand and add new markets and a rivalry without undercutting the Texas' schools recruiting.

This is a solid league that will get a playoff spot, and sometimes two, most years. Basketball will still be good. They could even look at adding schools like Gonzaga and Wichita State for basketball prowess. For now, the league stays at 10 in Football with fewer mouths to feed as they regain their footing while hoping to someday be invited back into the elite fold.

Again, joining the AAC without the Big 4 absolutely sucks and we have no desire to play in it, but we’d have no choice but to make the move as CUSA Leadership sucks. This is a no win situation, in my eyes, based on how it looks to be playing out.

One thing I think must be said, and then underlined and put in ALL CAPS.

There isn't a single current P5 school, after a century of being attached to Oklahoma and Texas, that is going to willingly associate with even one current G5 school. NOT GONNA HAPPEN.

I know that isn't what anyone on the G5 side wants to hear and certainly not what we see with all the "scenarios" and wishful thinking projections.

Just saying what the mood is gonna be over there in the Big 12. It would be admitting defeat. It will be the absolute last option, and they will view it just like that. So will their fans and boosters, and that matters, because those folks are gonna be asked to kick in more to save the programs. They will explore going independent first if necessary. As that leprosy-filled old father said to Earl the Bruce when he was telling him to screw over William Wallace: "Knowing the minds of the nobles is the key to the throne."

Wanna-be nobles ain't hanging out with serfs. And you don't solve losing annual games with Oklahoma and Texas or restore the brand damage sustained by replacing them with Cincinnati and UCF.

If you've have been a member of Augusta National, and you get kicked out, you don't restore your reputation by inviting the duffers from the local Par 3 into your foursome.

(07-30-2021 12:05 PM)BlazinBham Wrote:  Again, joining the AAC without the Big 4 absolutely sucks and we have no desire to play in it, but we’d have no choice but to make the move as CUSA Leadership sucks. This is a no win situation, in my eyes, based on how it looks to be playing out.

"We"?

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(07-30-2021 12:16 PM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  One thing I think must be said, and then underlined and put in ALL CAPS.

There isn't a single current P5 school, after a century of being attached to Oklahoma and Texas, that is going to willingly associate with even one current G5 school. NOT GONNA HAPPEN.

I know that isn't what anyone on the G5 side wants to hear and certainly not what we see with all the "scenarios" and wishful thinking projections.

Just saying what the mood is gonna be over there in the Big 12. It would be admitting defeat. It will be the absolute last option, and they will view it just like that. So will their fans and boosters, and that matters, because those folks are gonna be asked to kick in more to save the programs. They will explore going independent first if necessary. As that leprosy-filled old father said to Earl the Bruce when he was telling him to screw over William Wallace: "Knowing the minds of the nobles is the key to the throne."

Wanna-be nobles ain't hanging out with serfs. And you don't solve losing annual games with Oklahoma and Texas or restore the brand damage sustained by replacing them with Cincinnati and UCF.

If you've have been a member of Augusta National, and you get kicked out, you don't restore your reputation by inviting the duffers from the local Par 3 into your foursome.

You'd be surprised what you'd do when your options all suck.

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(07-30-2021 12:17 PM)Smaug Wrote:  

(07-30-2021 12:05 PM)BlazinBham Wrote:  Again, joining the AAC without the Big 4 absolutely sucks and we have no desire to play in it, but we’d have no choice but to make the move as CUSA Leadership sucks. This is a no win situation, in my eyes, based on how it looks to be playing out.

"We"?

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Oh please. It’s a lateral move without those four and you know it. The other additions would have to be solid af. La Tech, WKU, Marshall, USM, UTSA, FAU are a better collection of schools than what would be leftover if the AAC was getting raided and not doing the raiding.

Their option will be the same as Washington State's, Arizona's, Arizona State's, Oregon State's .... and that'll be better than one forced on them by the Mouse.

When you look at the Pac-12, all the value is in California. Ready-made west coast division for the B1G. USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon and Washington is all the money. It's an AAU sweep too. Easy pickings. Fox owns both. Maybe Colorado gets in too, repaired with Nebraska. Maybe not.

Arizona and Arizona State are new money. Joined in 1978, after the formation of the CFA. In all that time, they have two Rose Bowl appearances between them. Oregon State hasn't been to the Rose Bowl since the 1960s. Washington State has never won an outright Pac title and has an all-time losing record. Utah is a WAC team new to the club. That is every bit as vulnerable as the bottom half of the Big 12. After Kansas gets a lifeline, we're gonna see the PAC and Big 12 renmants get together. They will do that 100 times out of 100 over anything with the AAC.

(07-30-2021 12:22 PM)BlazinBham Wrote:  

(07-30-2021 12:17 PM)Smaug Wrote:  

(07-30-2021 12:05 PM)BlazinBham Wrote:  Again, joining the AAC without the Big 4 absolutely sucks and we have no desire to play in it, but we’d have no choice but to make the move as CUSA Leadership sucks. This is a no win situation, in my eyes, based on how it looks to be playing out.

"We"?

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Oh please. It’s a lateral move without those four and you know it. The other additions would have to be solid af.

Taken a hard look around CUSA lately?

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(07-30-2021 12:23 PM)Smaug Wrote:  

(07-30-2021 12:22 PM)BlazinBham Wrote:  

(07-30-2021 12:17 PM)Smaug Wrote:  

(07-30-2021 12:05 PM)BlazinBham Wrote:  Again, joining the AAC without the Big 4 absolutely sucks and we have no desire to play in it, but we’d have no choice but to make the move as CUSA Leadership sucks. This is a no win situation, in my eyes, based on how it looks to be playing out.

"We"?

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Oh please. It’s a lateral move without those four and you know it. The other additions would have to be solid af.

Taken a hard look around CUSA lately?

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Yes, which is why I said we are in a no-win situation.

(07-30-2021 12:05 PM)BlazinBham Wrote:  Again, joining the AAC without the Big 4 absolutely sucks and we have no desire to play in it, but we’d have no choice but to make the move as CUSA Leadership sucks. This is a no win situation, in my eyes, based on how it looks to be playing out.

Yeah totally disagree. Id almost take the MAC over this Mickey Mouse league.

(07-30-2021 12:22 PM)BlazinBham Wrote:  

(07-30-2021 12:17 PM)Smaug Wrote:  

(07-30-2021 12:05 PM)BlazinBham Wrote:  Again, joining the AAC without the Big 4 absolutely sucks and we have no desire to play in it, but we’d have no choice but to make the move as CUSA Leadership sucks. This is a no win situation, in my eyes, based on how it looks to be playing out.

"We"?

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Oh please. It’s a lateral move without those four and you know it. The other additions would have to be solid af. La Tech, WKU, Marshall, USM, UTSA, FAU are a better collection of schools than what would be leftover if the AAC was getting raided and not doing the raiding.

Completely disagree. The AAC even without the Big 4 is a better league with schools that have higher brand recognition. Plus CUSA & its leadership is a dumpster fire. We can improve our national perception just by no longer being associated with this conference.