Does it change anyone's recommendation? Does it affect who will support or oppose it? Most importantly, will the SEC support a 12 team CFP?

Regardless of whether the Big 12 survives or folds, do the powers that be really want six conference champions now? If the Big 12 backfills, it raids the AAC and/or MWC. If it dissolves, then the two of the G5 champions now get access annually (likely at the expense of a top-tier SEC school).

The 12-team format likely stays, but I'd imagine the automatic spots are amended somehow.

I think we looking at a 5+7 or 4+8. SEC wants minimum 4 clubs in there every year. ACC/PAC want 2. B1G 3. ND as the last At-Large. Although one of those slots will be negated by a 5th conference champ in a 5+7.

I'll think 12 may remain but who gets to go is probably being debated. The power conferences probably don't want G5 fodder in the playoffs.

I’m not sure how this changes the vote. If anything it’s one conference in the way and will strengthen the others to vote together.

Definitely it will be questionable with all the changes.

I wouldn't discount the XII reloading knocking out the AAC or the XII liquidating and the AAC ending up with Baylor/WVU making them feel more like a power conference.

Unless there is no more Big XII left at all. I don’t think this changes the proposal.

In a sense, with the top four conference champion second round byes, it's pre-adapted to a P4, a tweener conference and a group of buy game school conferences.

And if they want to get it done for 2023, it still needs a yes vote from all 10 conference signatories.

I think this move means back to the drawing board with the playoff. The 6-6 Plan was based on the conferences at their former strength. I think it’s a real possibility that the powers at be decide it should look more like 5-7 or 5-5.

Maybe the P4 give their champs first round byes and then 7 at larges plus a G6 representative play the opening round.

I don’t think it changes anything. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey is the person that spearheaded this playoff proposal in the first place (all while negotiating with UT and OU), so it would be shocking to me if the SEC would vote against it. They look at Sankey today the way that the Big Ten looked at Jim Delany: he clearly is a visionary and they’ll listen to whatever he says is best. Plus, it’s even more important to SEC schools to have lots of at-large bids now with UT and OU in the league.

I honestly think conference realignment and the playoff have very little impact on each other. If the new playoff system is still going to make a whole lot of money for everyone in college football (and every indication is that will continue to be the case), then the powers that be will vote for it full stop. Frankly, if the concern is that the SEC (and maybe the Big Ten) are so far ahead of everyone else revenue-wise, that would point to the other leagues *wanting* to wring as much money out of a playoff system as they can get.

(07-24-2021 09:32 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don’t think it changes anything. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey is the person that spearheaded this playoff proposal in the first place (all while negotiating with UT and OU), so it would be shocking to me if the SEC would vote against it. They look at Sankey today the way that the Big Ten looked at Jim Delany: he clearly is a visionary and they’ll listen to whatever he says is best. Plus, it’s even more important to SEC schools to have lots of at-large bids now with UT and OU in the league.

I honestly think conference realignment and the playoff have very little impact on each other. If the new playoff system is still going to make a whole lot of money for everyone in college football (and every indication is that will continue to be the case), then the powers that be will vote for it full stop. Frankly, if the concern is that the SEC (and maybe the Big Ten) are so far ahead of everyone else revenue-wise, that would point to the other leagues *wanting* to wring as much money out of a playoff system as they can get.

Could we see an expansion to 16 then push through 6+10 giving everyone more access?

That could be more the direction we are looking at.

(07-24-2021 09:15 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Definitely it will be questionable with all the changes.

I wouldn't discount the XII reloading knocking out the AAC or the XII liquidating and the AAC ending up with Baylor/WVU making them feel more like a power conference.

I mentioned this in another thread. I think if SEC grabs 2 from big and 2 from ACC as mentioned, I could see the Big cutting the head off the rest of ACC in order to stay close to SEC. With the top 8 to 10 teams gone, the Shake up will end up massive. Some sort of Pac/B12/ACC/ and maybe AAC combo to make up a 3rd huge conf.

If that shook out you end up with 3 leagues that likely separate from rest, and all get multiple bids to 12 team playoffs. If they don't separate, maybe they throw a bone with 4 conf champs getting bids. Thus 60 schools will get 10 or 11 bids every year, and the other usually get 1, and rarely 2.

The proposed 12 team CFP may still make sense, but CFP revenue distribution is not yet formally on the table.

The current CFP revenue formula treats each P5 conference equally and the G5 all split a share comparable to one P5 share. As the smallest P5 conference, the Big 12 benefited greatly from this CFP revenue distribution.

If UT & OU join the SEC, the new CFP revenue distribution formula will need to be modified. The SEC will want a greater share of the CFP revenue…just based on conference membership size. The BIG, ACC and PAC will also feel entitled to a larger share than the remaining B12…because they have more legacy power programs. Bowslby needs UT and OU still in the B12 when new CFP revenue distribution is being finalized as it may help garner more revenue for his conference.

I see no issue with the Big 12 receiving an auto-bid to a 12-team CFP (or an auto-bid to a NY6 bowl in the current setup).

The remaining 8 teams finished in the CFP standings...

5th in 2014 (Baylor)
11th in 2015 (TCU)
12th in 2016 (Oklahoma State)
15th in 2017 (TCU)
16th in 2018 (West Virginia)
7th in 2019 (Baylor)
10th in 2020 (Iowa State)

In comparison to other conferences the last 7 years (CFP era)...

SEC Champion averaged a 1.42 finish
ACC Champion averaged a 2.0 finish
Big Ten Champion averaged a 3.71 finish
Pac-12 Champion averaged an 8.57 finish
Big 12 Champion (minus OU/UT) averaged a 10.85 finish
Group of 5 Champion averaged a 14.0 finish

This conference won't compete for national championships, but it's by no means awful in terms of product on the field.

I don’t think it changes the 12 team playoff either. In fact, I think the SEC expansion actually makes more solid.

If a weakened Big 12 survives it will have more motivation than ever to support the currently proposed 6-6 formula. It can decapitate the AAC or MWC but will have difficulty decapitating both, hence its champion will be in a much better position to get into the playoff if auto bids are reserved for the top six rather than the top five conference champions. Throw in the G5 and you’ve got six conferences that will be lobbying hard for the 6-6 model.

The proposal isn't going anywhere. The SEC put it together. The entire Group of 5 and Big 12 would be for it.

Side note, the group of 5 label will mean virtually nothing under the new CFP deal.

(07-24-2021 11:53 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  If a weakened Big 12 survives it will have more motivation than ever to support the currently proposed 6-6 formula. It can decapitate the AAC or MWC but will have difficulty decapitating both, hence its champion will be in a much better position to get into the playoff if auto bids are reserved for the top six rather than the top five conference champions. Throw in the G5 and you’ve got six conferences that will be lobbying hard for the 6-6 model.

Now that Texas is out the door, maybe Boise State makes the shortlist. Some combination of BYU and Boise St. from the west and Houston and either Cincinnati or UCF from the east seems to absorb the best programs.

Can I imagine Kansas sending their storied basketball program to Boise for a conference game? No, not at all. But I also never thought Carolina would travel to Louisville or Notre Dame for league play,

This likely doesn't change the number of teams making the playoff. The merits of 12 or 8 or 4 stay relatively unchanged.

6 champions? The UT/OU move does change the calculus as the Big 12 champ is dowgraded as likely will be the AAC champ. Honestly, I think they should have gone 7 champs to begin with, so 6 may stay. Bigger than the number is re-examining AQ status.

If the Big Ten and SEC alone were to govern how a 12-team playoff were made, how would they do it?

(07-24-2021 08:51 AM)ken d Wrote:  Does it change anyone's recommendation? Does it affect who will support or oppose it? Most importantly, will the SEC support a 12 team CFP?

SEC, Big 12, Notre Dame and MWC were on the committee. No change for them. Don't see how this impacts any G5 votes. All but possibly MAC were clear yes votes. Think 12 team playoff is more certain than Texas/OU to SEC.