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One of two things will kick it off, either the Big 12 will raid the AAC taking some of their teams to add somewhere between 2 and 8 teams (maybe BYU, Boise St, etc if they want to be a 16 team conference) or the Big 12 will fold up and be raided by the PAC 12 and Big 10.

If the Big 12 raids the AAC, whether they want a 10 team or 16 team conference will determine what happens to the AAC. If only two AAC teams are added, then the AAC will probably look at Liberty, UAB and Marshall. If the Big 12 takes four or more AAC schools, then you will have some AAC schools looking to rejoin Conference USA and the AAC folding.

What do you predict?

If OU and Texas leave, I believe it will only be a matter of time before the Big 12 ceases to exist. Every other team in the league will look for another league to join, if they are not already. Perhaps they are some left behind (WVU, Baylor?, K-State?) and then its possible there will be some type of Big 12-AAC merger under the Big 12 banner. The best case scenario for UAB is Texas and OU leave, the Big 12 adds only 2 from the AAC and UAB backfills one of those vacancies. Worst case is for Power Conferences form and UAB is left in a totally irrelevant league, whether it be this one or a downgraded version of the AAC. If that happens, hopefully every remaining G5 school and conference finally aligns geographically.

If I were the Big 12, the No brainers would be to add a revitalized SMU, and Memphis.that gets them to 10. Houston would be a good fit. That’s 11. Add Tulane. That’s 12. Most of the rest of the AAC is too Far East for Olympic sport travel. Cincy would be a good travel fit with WVU. If you go to 14 the two best quality and travel options to choose from are imho Tulsa and UAB. Big question about how OKSU would feel about Tulsa

If ND were to go to the Big 10, Cincy could full that out

UAB will not be in the top tier of Big 12 options but could end up in the discussion depending on how many openings there are. I expect some of this will be like the last realignment -- waves over a period of a couple of years as opposed to one big series of moves in one short burst. Exit fees, grant of rights play into that timing. These things also usually have a surprise or two, and obvious choices end up not happening and compromises come as a result.

Regardless of what happens, UAB is in best position it has ever been. Even in the worst case scenarios, that foundation for success is there.

ACC adds Army, Navy

Pac 12 adds OK State, Tx Tech, KU, KSU

Big 10 adds Iowa State, WVa

AAC/B12 Baylor, SMU, TCU, Cincinnatti, Houston, Tulsa, Memphis, Tulane, ECU, Temple, USF, UCF

Independents Notre Dame, BYU, Air Force, Liberty

If the Big Ten does anything, I don't think it will play small ball. It'll go after something to counter the SEC's power move. The difference in TV dollars will force that issue.

If Texas and Oklahoma Bolt to the SEC, What Happens to the Rest of the Big 12?

https://www.si.com/college/2021/07/22/te...ference-go

(07-22-2021 09:43 PM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  UAB will not be in the top tier of Big 12 options but could end up in the discussion depending on how many openings there are. I expect some of this will be like the last realignment -- waves over a period of a couple of years as opposed to one big series of moves in one short burst. Exit fees, grant of rights play into that timing. These things also usually have a surprise or two, and obvious choices end up not happening and compromises come as a result.

Regardless of what happens, UAB is in best position it has ever been. Even in the worst case scenarios, that foundation for success is there.

I agree completely that UAB would be down the pecking order. It would take a firm desire to get to 16 and a desire to not stretch too far geographically to get consideration

ECU, Tulsa, and Tulane are gonna end up right back where they belong...in the ditch with the rest of us.

The center of gravity for this sport pulls ever Southward.

Fans have talked forever about a new highest division of college football being inevitable and I think most have had the P5/4 in mind. What if that Super League of college football ends up not being a confederation of conferences but a single conference?

College football is becoming a regional sport at the highest level. If the SEC decides to add enough teams (Clemson, Florida State, UNC, Michigan, Ohio State, etc.), they won't have to play other conferences and can still have a 4-8 team playoff. This is how the top tiers of the remaining power leagues could leave their weaker sisters in the dust.

Probably far-fetched but I think this OU-Texas move may start some wheels turning in the heads of non-SEC powers like Clemson. I think an Elite Division may end up a lot closer to the NFL's 32 teams than 64 or more.

(07-23-2021 04:24 AM)BlazerGreen Wrote:  The center of gravity for this sport pulls ever Southward.

Fans have talked forever about a new highest division of college football being inevitable and I think most have had the P5/4 in mind. What if that Super League of college football ends up not being a confederation of conferences but a single conference?

College football is becoming a regional sport at the highest level. If the SEC decides to add enough teams (Clemson, Florida State, UNC, Michigan, Ohio State, etc.), they won't have to play other conferences and can still have a 4-8 team playoff. This is how the top tiers of the remaining power leagues could leave their weaker sisters in the dust.

Probably far-fetched but I think this OU-Texas move may start some wheels turning in the heads of non-SEC powers like Clemson. I think an Elite Division may end up a lot closer to the NFL's 32 teams than 64 or more.

if they do that the ratings will suffer and their value will decrease.

(07-23-2021 04:24 AM)BlazerGreen Wrote:  The center of gravity for this sport pulls ever Southward.

Fans have talked forever about a new highest division of college football being inevitable and I think most have had the P5/4 in mind. What if that Super League of college football ends up not being a confederation of conferences but a single conference?

College football is becoming a regional sport at the highest level. If the SEC decides to add enough teams (Clemson, Florida State, UNC, Michigan, Ohio State, etc.), they won't have to play other conferences and can still have a 4-8 team playoff. This is how the top tiers of the remaining power leagues could leave their weaker sisters in the dust.

Probably far-fetched but I think this OU-Texas move may start some wheels turning in the heads of non-SEC powers like Clemson. I think an Elite Division may end up a lot closer to the NFL's 32 teams than 64 or more.

Dead on. Easily could see the evolution going toward a new organization of the biggest brands. This is preferred by many in leadership at those institutions, but many factors have stopped it. Those factors have changed considerably over the last decade since the last major realignments.

1. Conference-owned networks of the SEC and Big Ten are very successful. Others, not so much.
2. This is creating major revenue gaps. Projected over a decade, this creates situation where powerful in-state rivals make tens or even hundreds of millions less than less-successful peers in the SEC or B1G.
3. Oklahoma and Texas are hardly the only programs examining this. Think Clemson and FSU are happy locked in a capped TV deal while South Carolina and Florida are not?
4. What about basketball? First step you will see is a move to separate administration of football completely from the NCAA. This has already been proposed. I think they will mostly leave the other sports alone but narrow the NCAA focus to administration of championships and general competition rules while deregulating much of the rule book.
5. I could easily see the SEC and Big Ten serving as umbrellas that pull the top 10-20 schools from ACC/Pac-12/Big 12 into their media alliance.

(07-22-2021 08:51 PM)Ramblin Wreck Wrote:  One of two things will kick it off, either the Big 12 will raid the AAC taking some of their teams to add somewhere between 2 and 8 teams (maybe BYU, Boise St, etc if they want to be a 16 team conference) or the Big 12 will fold up and be raided by the PAC 12 and Big 10.

If the Big 12 raids the AAC, whether they want a 10 team or 16 team conference will determine what happens to the AAC. If only two AAC teams are added, then the AAC will probably look at Liberty, UAB and Marshall. If the Big 12 takes four or more AAC schools, then you will have some AAC schools looking to rejoin Conference USA and the AAC folding.

What do you predict?

I think when it is all said and done Texas Tech, Kansas, and Oklahoma St will end up in the PAC 12. I don't know who the 16th team would be but my guess is it will be another Texas team with a lean towards Houston.

I think the B1G and ACC will aggressively pursue Notre Dame and try to convinced them to join a conference. But this will hinge on whether or not we get the new CFP playoff format. If the new playoff is implemented then I don't see Notre Dame joining a conference in the immediate future.

I think the five remaining Big 12 schools (Baylor, TCU, Iowa State, Kansas St, and West Virginia) will invite BYU and schools from the MWC and AAC to join. Take your pick on who those schools would be. I can't tell you anything else beyond that.

The big thing I see is that it will be very difficult for the Big 12 schools to hold tight. Once Texas and OU make it official, I imagine Kansas and West Virginia, especially, run hard at any lifeboats they can find, as happened in the Big East when the cracks in the ship were visible. No way will they want to risk being stuck last schools standing in a league refilled with schools they have rejected multiple times.

Kansas is going to be interesting. We’ll see how much value folks place in basketball vs. football. Any conference would want their basketball program, but KU football is the biggest dumpster fire in the NCAA . Would the Big 10 want to share $60 million for a hoops program?

(07-23-2021 11:24 AM)linus Wrote:  Kansas is going to be interesting. We’ll see how much value folks place in basketball vs. football. Any conference would want their basketball program, but KU football is the biggest dumpster fire in the NCAA . Would the Big 10 want to share $60 million for a hoops program?

I think a number of schools in the P5 are about to experience what it feels like to be Left Behind.

OU and Texas to the SEC makes the same move for Clemson and FSU inevitable IMO. That will completely upend the values of the Big 12 and ACC media deals. I imagine the scramble for higher ground has already begun and the conference offices at the SEC and Big 10 are ringing off the hook.

I think the SEC takes OU, Texas, Clemson, and FSU. North Carolina is a possibility. Not sure who could be next.

I think the Big 10 takes Notre Dame, Kansas, Virginia, and probably North Carolina (better institutional fit).

Not sure how the PAC fits in but they are the weak sister of the P5. Only USC, Oregon, and Washington really rate as elite football programs. Be some travel costs, but I could see their football programs aligning with the Big 10. Lot of history there.

(07-23-2021 12:44 PM)BlazerGreen Wrote:  I think a number of schools in the P5 are about to experience what it feels like to be Left Behind.

OU and Texas to the SEC makes the same move for Clemson and FSU inevitable IMO. That will completely upend the values of the Big 12 and ACC media deals. I imagine the scramble for higher ground has already begun and the conference offices at the SEC and Big 10 are ringing off the hook.

I think the SEC takes OU, Texas, Clemson, and FSU. North Carolina is a possibility. Not sure who could be next.

I think the Big 10 takes Notre Dame, Kansas, Virginia, and probably North Carolina (better institutional fit).

Not sure how the PAC fits in but they are the weak sister of the P5. Only USC, Oregon, and Washington really rate as elite football programs. Be some travel costs, but I could see their football programs aligning with the Big 10. Lot of history there.

Notre Dame WILL NEVER FORGET and WILL NEVER JOIN the BIG10

(07-23-2021 11:24 AM)linus Wrote:  Kansas is going to be interesting. We’ll see how much value folks place in basketball vs. football. Any conference would want their basketball program, but KU football is the biggest dumpster fire in the NCAA . Would the Big 10 want to share $60 million for a hoops program?

The Big 10 puts a huge emphasis on AAU membership. Nebraska was an AAU member when they joined, but lost it. Iowa State and Kansas are AAU members. Kansas is reported to already have a meeting set up with the Big 10.

The ACC schools aren’t going anywhere. The exit fee is very high. I don’t think the SEC wants to jump from 14 to 18 teams anyway.

(07-23-2021 12:52 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 12:44 PM)BlazerGreen Wrote:  I think a number of schools in the P5 are about to experience what it feels like to be Left Behind.

OU and Texas to the SEC makes the same move for Clemson and FSU inevitable IMO. That will completely upend the values of the Big 12 and ACC media deals. I imagine the scramble for higher ground has already begun and the conference offices at the SEC and Big 10 are ringing off the hook.

I think the SEC takes OU, Texas, Clemson, and FSU. North Carolina is a possibility. Not sure who could be next.

I think the Big 10 takes Notre Dame, Kansas, Virginia, and probably North Carolina (better institutional fit).

Not sure how the PAC fits in but they are the weak sister of the P5. Only USC, Oregon, and Washington really rate as elite football programs. Be some travel costs, but I could see their football programs aligning with the Big 10. Lot of history there.

Notre Dame WILL NEVER FORGET and WILL NEVER JOIN the BIG10

$ talks, even for the pervs in the Catholic church. If the cool kids are forming their own club then the Irish will want to be there, history be damned to a hell of no choir boys.