# of games keep dwindling- down to 14. All game times EST.

Fri, 2/19 (2 games)

-Lincoln, MO (Div II) @ Nichols St

-SDSU @ UNI (8 PM) National Game of the Week
This game will be minus 3 of the FCS top pro prospects. From last summer Draftscout FCS #1 ranked WR (SDSU), #1 ranked DE (UNI) #2 ranked OT (UNI), all Senior Bowl invites, not playing winter/spring.

Sat, 2/20 (7 games, 6 others + JMU)

-Samford @ ETSU (1 PM, ESPN+)

-SIU @ N Dakota (1 PM, ESPN+)

-Mercer (0-3) @ Wofford (1 PM, ESPN+)

-Davidson @ Elon (1:30 PM)

-WCU (0-3) @ Furman (2 PM, ESPN+)

-NW St @ Lamar (4 PM, ESPN+)
____________________________________________________
-WIU @ S Dakota (postponed until 4/17 (WIU Covid)).

-Illinois St @ MO St (postponed until 4/17 (weather)).

-VMI @ UTC (postponed (UTC Covid)).

-Del State @ Morgan St (cancelled-Morgan St cancelled season).

-Norfolk St @ SC State (cancelled-NSU cancelled season).

Sun, 2/21 (5 games)

-Edward Waters (NAIA) @ Jackson State (2 PM, ESPN3)

-EIU @ Tenn Martin (2 PM, ESPN+)

-Austin Peay (0-3) @ Tenn Tech (2:30 PM, ESPN+)

-YSU @ NDSU (1-0) (3:30, ESPN+)
Will be interesting to see how NDSU does without projected 1st rd draft pick QB Trey Lance, their projected 2nd-3rd Rd OT, (Senior Bowl invite), and their AA LB who transferred to LSU, started for, & is a projected mid round pick.
Appears their 2019 Iowa St transfer is starting at QB for them, not the recent VT transfer..

-Tarleton St (0-1) @ New Mexico St (5 PM)

That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

Austin Peay game might be worth catching a bit of. Likely the OVC comes down to them and JSU. Whoever doesn’t win the OVC between them has a shot at an at large bid, assuming they perform well otherwise.

(02-18-2021 09:16 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Austin Peay game might be worth catching a bit of. Likely the OVC comes down to them and JSU. Whoever doesn’t win the OVC between them has a shot at an at large bid, assuming they perform well otherwise.

I’d be surprosed to see AP in the playoffs (I neglected to show they’re 0-3 from the fall, granted 2 I-A losses). Sure they made the quarterfinals in 2019. But this past Nov Austin Peay hired a 30 yr old, the youngest HC in Div I. On top of that, its their 3rd HC in 3 seasons. A Nov hire for a Feb start is like hiring a new HC in June for a Sept start. In the middle of a pandemic to boot. Not good.

In Dec 2018 Maine hired a 30 yr old, at the time the youngest HC in Div I. And they wemt from semis in 2018, to not making the playoffs in 2019.

(02-18-2021 08:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

It will certainly put one of them behind the 8 ball the rest of the season

(02-19-2021 08:49 AM)AssyrianDuke Wrote:  

(02-18-2021 08:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

It will certainly put one of them behind the 8 ball the rest of the season

One of SDSU, UNI and ISU will miss the playoffs and the MVC folks will whine about it to no end.

Assuming they all pick up an L to NDSU they can afford to lose only one more game in an 8 game schedule. 5-3 won't be going to the dance.

(02-18-2021 08:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

Not necessarily. I'd say the loser is on the bubble the rest of the season and has to win out, could maybe afford to drop one more. If there's any conference getting 3 bids, it's the valley. NDSU, UNI and SDSU are 1, 2 and 3.

The winner is sitting pretty for 2nd place. The loser can only drop one more, maybe no more depending on the national field. 3 MVFC losses is guaranteed no playoffs for a team other than NDSU. NDSU would probably need to drop 4 to guarantee no playoffs.

BDK is right. All signs appear to point to Austin Peay being more likely to drop off (i.e. miss the playoffs) than make the playoffs.

(02-19-2021 11:46 AM)Potomac Wrote:  

(02-18-2021 08:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

Not necessarily. I'd say the loser is on the bubble the rest of the season and has to win out, could maybe afford to drop one more. If there's any conference getting 3 bids, it's the valley. NDSU, UNI and SDSU are 1, 2 and 3.

The winner is sitting pretty for 2nd place. The loser can only drop one more, maybe no more depending on the national field. 3 MVFC losses is guaranteed no playoffs for a team other than NDSU. NDSU would probably need to drop 4 to guarantee no playoffs.

All three play each other so unless they all have 1 loss I cant see all three making the playoffs

(02-18-2021 08:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

Maybe. This past fall with a normal season I would have said NDSU was a lock to win the MVFC, and probably another NC. But after losing what might be the 1st 3 FCS draft picks early (if you include the LB who transferred to LSU) + a couple other transfer ups as well, I think they are the MVFC favorite, but by no means a lock.

(02-19-2021 10:22 AM)JMaddy Wrote:  

(02-19-2021 08:49 AM)AssyrianDuke Wrote:  

(02-18-2021 08:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

It will certainly put one of them behind the 8 ball the rest of the season

One of SDSU, UNI and ISU will miss the playoffs and the MVC folks will whine about it to no end.

Assuming they all pick up an L to NDSU they can afford to lose only one more game in an 8 game schedule. 5-3 won't be going to the dance.

Big assumption to assume they all pick up an L to NDSU. I'll put the over/under on NDSU at 7-1. 8-0 wouldn't surprise me, but neither would 6-2.

(02-19-2021 11:46 AM)Potomac Wrote:  

(02-18-2021 08:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

Not necessarily. I'd say the loser is on the bubble the rest of the season and has to win out, could maybe afford to drop one more. If there's any conference getting 3 bids, it's the valley. NDSU, UNI and SDSU are 1, 2 and 3.

The winner is sitting pretty for 2nd place. The loser can only drop one more, maybe no more depending on the national field. 3 MVFC losses is guaranteed no playoffs for a team other than NDSU. NDSU would probably need to drop 4 to guarantee no playoffs.

NDSU might be the only team in the country for lock for an At Large with 2 conference losses, but I don't think even they would get an at large at 6-3/5-3. They'd likely be in 4th-5th place in the MVFC standings. While the MVFC might get 3 in, I see zero chance they get 4.

I'm just hoping they get 2 losses to get them out of the dome.

(02-19-2021 12:01 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(02-19-2021 11:46 AM)Potomac Wrote:  

(02-18-2021 08:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

Not necessarily. I'd say the loser is on the bubble the rest of the season and has to win out, could maybe afford to drop one more. If there's any conference getting 3 bids, it's the valley. NDSU, UNI and SDSU are 1, 2 and 3.

The winner is sitting pretty for 2nd place. The loser can only drop one more, maybe no more depending on the national field. 3 MVFC losses is guaranteed no playoffs for a team other than NDSU. NDSU would probably need to drop 4 to guarantee no playoffs.

All three play each other so unless they all have 1 loss I cant see all three making the playoffs

MVC will get three teams with a small chance at 4, so it is very much possible they all make it, in fact there is a chance you have two of them with 1 loss and two teams (we'll just add say Ill State) with 2 losses. Or more likely NDSU runs the table and there are three teams at 2 losses.

The CAA could end up with 4 teams with 1 loss (let's for arguments sake say we drop one to Elon, and then Nova and Albany both only lose once).

There are some potentially wild scenarios out there. If MVC has 4 teams with 2 or less losses and we have 4 teams with 1 loss there is a chance we both get 4 teams or a chance that we (JMU) get left out.

(02-19-2021 12:23 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(02-19-2021 10:22 AM)JMaddy Wrote:  

(02-19-2021 08:49 AM)AssyrianDuke Wrote:  

(02-18-2021 08:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

It will certainly put one of them behind the 8 ball the rest of the season

One of SDSU, UNI and ISU will miss the playoffs and the MVC folks will whine about it to no end.

Assuming they all pick up an L to NDSU they can afford to lose only one more game in an 8 game schedule. 5-3 won't be going to the dance.

Big assumption to assume they all pick up an L to NDSU. I'll put the over/under on NDSU at 7-1. 8-0 wouldn't surprise me, but neither would 6-2.

I wouldn't be surpsied if NDSU runs the table or loses 2, they lost some key guys (but then again so did the rest of their league). I do think that the other Valley teams are generally highly overrated because of the success of NDSU though. If NDSU didn't exist the Valley would have maybe 1 national championship in the last decade (Ill State in 2014). In all other years their best teams were no match for Big Sky/CAA or even SHSU.

(02-19-2021 12:39 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(02-19-2021 11:46 AM)Potomac Wrote:  

(02-18-2021 08:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

Not necessarily. I'd say the loser is on the bubble the rest of the season and has to win out, could maybe afford to drop one more. If there's any conference getting 3 bids, it's the valley. NDSU, UNI and SDSU are 1, 2 and 3.

The winner is sitting pretty for 2nd place. The loser can only drop one more, maybe no more depending on the national field. 3 MVFC losses is guaranteed no playoffs for a team other than NDSU. NDSU would probably need to drop 4 to guarantee no playoffs.

NDSU might be the only team in the country for lock for an At Large with 2 conference losses, but I don't think even they would get an at large at 6-3/5-3. They'd likely be in 4th-5th place in the MVFC standings. While the MVFC might get 3 in, I see zero chance they get 4.

I'm just hoping they get 2 losses to get them out of the dome.

From 2011 and forward, only see one year where NDSU lost 2 regular season games. In 2015 they had 3 point losses to both Montana and South Dakota (went on to beat the Griz later in playoffs).

So I guess its possible for NDSU to drop 2 regular season games, but it doesn't seem particularly likely. They have a well oiled system, and seem to just plug in new players. When they transition coaches they also rely on keeping that same system/playbook largely intact.

(02-19-2021 12:41 PM)JMaddy Wrote:  

(02-19-2021 12:01 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(02-19-2021 11:46 AM)Potomac Wrote:  

(02-18-2021 08:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

Not necessarily. I'd say the loser is on the bubble the rest of the season and has to win out, could maybe afford to drop one more. If there's any conference getting 3 bids, it's the valley. NDSU, UNI and SDSU are 1, 2 and 3.

The winner is sitting pretty for 2nd place. The loser can only drop one more, maybe no more depending on the national field. 3 MVFC losses is guaranteed no playoffs for a team other than NDSU. NDSU would probably need to drop 4 to guarantee no playoffs.

All three play each other so unless they all have 1 loss I cant see all three making the playoffs

MVC will get three teams with a small chance at 4, so it is very much possible they all make it, in fact there is a chance you have two of them with 1 loss and two teams (we'll just add say Ill State) with 2 losses. Or more likely NDSU runs the table and there are three teams at 2 losses.

The CAA could end up with 4 teams with 1 loss (let's for arguments sake say we drop one to Elon, and then Nova and Albany both only lose once).

There are some potentially wild scenarios out there. If MVC has 4 teams with 2 or less losses and we have 4 teams with 1 loss there is a chance we both get 4 teams or a chance that we (JMU) get left out.

No one is going to get an At Large with 3 conference losses...And the chance of 4 of MVFC teams with 2 or less losses, is close to zero (unless they don't play a bunch of games, which a whole nother can of worms). The last 9 seasons (since NDSU began their run), the # of times they've had 4 teams with 2 or less conference losses is ZERO. 5 years they had 2 teams, 3 years they had 3 teams, and 1 year they had just NDSU.

Its not like the Big Sky last season, where you had 13 teams, so each only played 8 of the other 12, or 2 divisions like the CAA with jacked up scheduling. With 10 teams playing, all the MVFC will be playing 8 of the other 9.

And a 1 loss JMU isn't going to get left out of the playoffs when there are 6 At Large available..

(02-19-2021 02:52 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(02-19-2021 12:41 PM)JMaddy Wrote:  

(02-19-2021 12:01 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(02-19-2021 11:46 AM)Potomac Wrote:  

(02-18-2021 08:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  That SDSU UNI game could be an elimination game in week 1 lol

Not necessarily. I'd say the loser is on the bubble the rest of the season and has to win out, could maybe afford to drop one more. If there's any conference getting 3 bids, it's the valley. NDSU, UNI and SDSU are 1, 2 and 3.

The winner is sitting pretty for 2nd place. The loser can only drop one more, maybe no more depending on the national field. 3 MVFC losses is guaranteed no playoffs for a team other than NDSU. NDSU would probably need to drop 4 to guarantee no playoffs.

All three play each other so unless they all have 1 loss I cant see all three making the playoffs

MVC will get three teams with a small chance at 4, so it is very much possible they all make it, in fact there is a chance you have two of them with 1 loss and two teams (we'll just add say Ill State) with 2 losses. Or more likely NDSU runs the table and there are three teams at 2 losses.

The CAA could end up with 4 teams with 1 loss (let's for arguments sake say we drop one to Elon, and then Nova and Albany both only lose once).

There are some potentially wild scenarios out there. If MVC has 4 teams with 2 or less losses and we have 4 teams with 1 loss there is a chance we both get 4 teams or a chance that we (JMU) get left out.

No one is going to get an At Large with 3 conference losses...And the chance of 4 of MVFC teams with 2 or less losses, is close to zero (unless they don't play a bunch of games, which a whole nother can of worms). The last 9 seasons (since NDSU began their run), the # of times they've had 4 teams with 2 or less conference losses is ZERO. 5 years they had 2 teams, 3 years they had 3 teams, and 1 year they had just NDSU.

Its not like the Big Sky last season, where you had 13 teams, so each only played 8 of the other 12, or 2 divisions like the CAA with jacked up scheduling. With 10 teams playing, all the MVFC will be playing 8 of the other 9.

And a 1 loss JMU isn't going to get left out of the playoffs when there are 6 At Large available..

I didn't say it is likely that they will have four 2 loss teams but it is possible:

NDSU - Lose to SDSU; beats UNI & ISU; runs table against rest of league
SDSU - Lose to UNI; beats NDSU & ISU; runs table against rest of league
UNI - Lose to ISU and NDSU; beats SDSU; runs table against rest of league
ISU - Lose to NDSU and SDSU; beats UNI; runs table against rest of league

As for CAA and JMU if we have four teams with 1 loss (e.g. JMU, Elon, Nova, Albany) Which looks better Elon's win over us or ours over them? Both of our OOC schedules are trash so if there was a SOS comparison we'd lose that head to head because they play us twice which bumps theirs up more. Our hope would be then that the comittee likes our 8 game schedules more than the 6 games the northern CAA plays, but there is really only maybe one complete cake walk for those teams vs at least four maybe six on our side. It would also require the MVC to have four teams with 2 losses or less for us to be left out of the playoffs (otherwise we likely get all four teams in much to the chagrin of FCS nation) but in the realm of what is possible...it is certainly possible a 1 loss JMU is sitting out the playoffs no matter how small the odds.

IF the CAA has 4 one loss teams, and two of those are JMU and Elon, I think that probably does put us in a dicey situation.

Really don’t see half the at larges going to the CAA. The MVC and CAA *might* get 2 each.

In this scenario, if we get an at large birth it would be mostly due to recent history and the committee respecting that. And if we end up 6-1 and Elon is 7-1, probably they are in over us.

This is why we need to run up all the CAA scores and secure the autobid tie-breaker. Otherwise things could get really messy this season.

It’s interesting there are already two games with Covid cancellation, one of them impacting the MVC.

I don’t think the CAA will be immune to this.

Does anyone know what the FCS criteria is, or does each school make their own decision? Does a single positive on the team require a pause or can you quarantine a handful of players and still have a game?

(02-19-2021 04:39 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  It’s interesting there are already two games with Covid cancellation, one of them impacting the MVC.

I don’t think the CAA will be immune to this.

Does anyone know what the FCS criteria is, or does each school make their own decision? Does a single positive on the team require a pause or can you quarantine a handful of players and still have a game?

I think we've seen both situations at the FBS level. Usually if it is a position group as a whole that is out (Florida St.) then they will cancel the game, but if it is a few players then they sit out the protocol while the team plays on.