(12-10-2020 09:57 PM)green Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 09:46 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 09:37 PM)green Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 09:33 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 09:31 PM)green Wrote:  ACC game of the week migrates to comcast’s nbc ...

BOLD PREDICTION

ESPN allowing a massive competitor in out of the goodness of their hearts? If not for the contract that was signed I would say maybe, but now? Heck no.

https://twitter.com/JBoorstin/status/133...1473317893

OH YE OF LITTLE FAITH

The ACC needs to have something like this happen. I ain't holding my breathe though.

when jack swarbrick is named commissioner ...

PRACTICE CHEST COMPRESSIONS

Speaking of Jack Swarbrick, he has twice now in recent interviews stated that ND football will go back to being independent as soon as Covid lets it.

Here is the latest mention of this:


"Of course, the question of whether Notre Dame was steadfast in post-pandemic football independence as it was pre-COVID-19 came up when athletic director Jack Swarbrick spoke from his Zoom cubicle Wednesday to local and national media.

Came up twice, in fact.

And the answer wasn’t particularly compelling or surprising either time.

“The reasons we value independence — and it continues to be a priority for us — aren’t impacted by the positive experience of being in the ACC fully this year,” he concluded."


https://www.ndinsider.com/football/ad-ja...i52qk_9Z28

Here is another recent statement by Swarbrick:




Swarbrick says the Notre Dame football team will continue to be independent although they have “thoroughly enjoyed” playing in the ACC this season.


https://twitter.com/markskoljr_WNDU/stat...32417?s=19

Of course they will. That’s what parasites do.....feed off the host and contribute nothing of value.

(12-11-2020 09:30 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  Of course they will. That’s what parasites do.....feed off the host and contribute nothing of value.

ND contributed a lot to the ACC this season.

The top four ACC rated TV games all involved ND.

Clemson @ Notre Dame NBC 10.07M

Notre Dame @ North Carolina ABC 6.08M

Notre Dame @ BC ABC 5.14M

Duke @ Notre Dame NBC 4.32M

(12-11-2020 09:38 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 09:30 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  Of course they will. That’s what parasites do.....feed off the host and contribute nothing of value.

ND contributed a lot to the ACC this season.

The top four ACC rated TV games all involved ND.

Clemson @ Notre Dame NBC 10.07M

Notre Dame @ North Carolina ABC 6.08M

Notre Dame @ BC ABC 5.14M

Duke @ Notre Dame NBC 4.32M

It doesn't matter anymore.

ACC is going to fall behind at an increasing rate with or without ND.

ND is honestly irrelevant now in THIS discussion of revenue. A gap of $40 milllion plus......doesn't matter.

Be independent, don't. There is the P2 and everyone else. Folks don't believe it now or wont. But they will see it in 5 years or so. The P2 will add schools like OU, Texas, UNC, Duke and it will become even more obvious.

Those on the outside....will be very aware of it.

(12-11-2020 09:38 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 09:30 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  Of course they will. That’s what parasites do.....feed off the host and contribute nothing of value.

ND contributed a lot to the ACC this season.

The top four ACC rated TV games all involved ND.

Clemson @ Notre Dame NBC 10.07M

Notre Dame @ North Carolina ABC 6.08M

Notre Dame @ BC ABC 5.14M

Duke @ Notre Dame NBC 4.32M

And I imagine in 2036 when we negotiate our next media rights deal that will garner us about $12.75.

(12-11-2020 08:11 AM)nole Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 01:07 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 08:28 PM)nole Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 08:26 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 08:17 PM)nole Wrote:  ESPN and insiders will put less emphasis on championship games because they want 2 SEC teams in the playoff.

There is no way around this. If you are disadvantage with TV, $, and thus power......it's going to have bad consequences.

ACC has just stuck its' head in the ground. The gap exploded once and it's about to again.....

It has, not much to do. Kind of stuck it seems, the SEC and Bug are lightyears ahead monetarily.

I'll never get the logic of "yes, we failed.....nothing we can do now..."

Shouldn't this equal "we failed and we need to clean out leadership and see if something new can fix this".

But ACC (and FSU) has a culture of, if leadership is a horrible failure the damage is done, so let's not change anything. I just don't get this.

Some interesting points to add:

1. Boomers will be statistically irrelevant by 2036 (born '46-62 will be 74-90) so their interest will be gone and it that interest that drove the golden age of college football. Most Boomer males played at least at the high school level. Participation is way down among the middle class. So by 2036 peak interest in college football will be passing everywhere but in the Southeast and Southwest where it still remains a religion and right of passage.

2. The gap will sorely tempt Texas and especially Oklahoma. Oil and Gas is down and new sources of power may hurt it further. Oklahoma could make an extra 220 million plus by joining the SEC over the 10 years between 2024 and 2034 and they will no longer be bound by the GOR at the end of 2023. Should the Sooners be attracted to the money and sports stability, particularly of football, in the SEC it raises the likelihood that Texas too would need to make some decisions. Texas would raise the SEC payouts by about 2 million a year and Oklahoma by about another 2.5 million. So the gap itself will be an enticement to schools who are no longer bound contractually (B12 expires at the end of 2023) or by GOR.

3. The added revenue will impact the efficacy of non football sports.

4. Expansion is the way for the ACC to renegotiate and if Oklahoma heads to the SEC in 2024 even if Texas follows this is the best possible outcome for the ACC. Why? A move to a P4 makes a champs only model more likely and a champs only model forces Notre Dame's hand if they desire access to the CFP. That means that Notre Dame joining in full or even with another school, perhaps WVU, would trigger that renegotiation and it would do something else, it would open the GOR for the ACC because it would have to be voted on again for expansion. Status Quo within the P5 is the biggest enemy of the ACC. If Notre Dame doesn't have to join in full they won't. If they ride out the situation until the end of the GOR they may move for the most money as well.

But if realignment happens in 2024 it will have to be school driven. Networks will want to wait until 2035 because maintaining status quo in payments will be incentive to reshape conferences at a time when values may well be headed down. They will get out more cheaply and with more concessions.

I respect ND and the value they bring......but the ACC facing a revenue gap of $40 million plus per team per year. ACC would be LUCKY to cut $5 million of that.

The ONLY way the p3 (ACC, Big 12, Pac 12) continue to play at the highest levels is to be swallowed up by the P2.

The P2 will NOT take dead weight. They won't take all of the p3. I think even some very good schools....including FSU will be left out. I think you see some great athletic schools die in this process.

I do think Texas and OU kick this mess off.

F.S.U. won't die. The state of Florida doesn't have a majority of college football watchers following one team like they do in Georgia where the Dawgs have 85% of the market outside of Atlanta and about 50% of the market in Atlanta with about 6 other schools including Tech making up the rest. For a conference to command, and get a higher % of a higher ad rate in Florida they will need a combination that includes the University of Florida and preferably F.S.U. as those two together account for almost 80% of the Florida market for college football. Florida and Miami will do the trick but not nearly as well. That means that F.S.U. in a very large state still has legs in a streaming world. It also means that North Carolina and Virginia Tech have some legs as well. Second schools in small market states will have issues unless they are dynamic, which Clemson is. So the ACC might fare a bit better than you think, but it would definitely suffer hits should a two league system emerge.

(12-11-2020 09:48 AM)nole Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 09:38 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 09:30 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  Of course they will. That’s what parasites do.....feed off the host and contribute nothing of value.

ND contributed a lot to the ACC this season.

The top four ACC rated TV games all involved ND.

Clemson @ Notre Dame NBC 10.07M

Notre Dame @ North Carolina ABC 6.08M

Notre Dame @ BC ABC 5.14M

Duke @ Notre Dame NBC 4.32M

It doesn't matter anymore.

ACC is going to fall behind at an increasing rate with or without ND.

ND is honestly irrelevant now in THIS discussion of revenue. A gap of $40 milllion plus......doesn't matter.

Be independent, don't. There is the P2 and everyone else. Folks don't believe it now or wont. But they will see it in 5 years or so. The P2 will add schools like OU, Texas, UNC, Duke and it will become even more obvious.

Those on the outside....will be very aware of it.

Ooooo, the Big Bad Power 2....you mean Alabama and Ohio State? As long as the playoff model is set-up the way it is, those are the roads every team in those conferences must cross to make the playoffs. Saban can’t coach forever—at least I don’t believe he can, but he might upload his consciousness into an automaton and try. I remember life before Saban, and Bama had truckloads of money then.

So far, more money has NOT equaled on-field success. There will NEVER be some mass exodus of head coaches to become assistants, whether they make more or not.

At what point does all this extra money not make a difference? Look, I know every program wants as much as possible, but are they not already raking in a ton??

Finally, is a doomsday scenario really all that bad? Sure the history of grand old conferences would be lost to the annals of “athletic museums” in mega sports complexes, but essentially we would see partitioned conferences within conferences, or leagues. Florida would hardly ever play the likes of Oklahoma and Texas. On the flip side, Alabama might be separated from long standing foe Ole Miss. so I’m not quite sold every school is standing on the same ground as far as expansion is concerned.

I’ll play, so without further ado....

esayem’s DOOMSDAY LEAGUE, or the resurrection of the Southern Conference:

Texas
TAMU
Oklahoma
Mizzou
Arkansas
LSU
Ole Miss
Miss St.
OK State*

Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Florida St.
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Clemson
South Carolina
Miami*

UNC
NC St.
Duke
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Kentucky
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake*

So basically there isn’t anything new under the sun, this looks like the old SoCon with some added western heavyweights. Each division (conference?) winner plus one at-large makes a four team tournament to decide league champion. Not sure how they’d handle the conference basketball tournament.

The remnants could seek affiliation with the Big East or perhaps add a few all-sports members:

Miami
Wake (oh, this pains me to my core so I’ll add alternates)
Louisville
Pitt
Syracuse
BC

West Virginia
UConn
Temple
Cincinnati

With these 15 additional games in the inventory and a guarantee of an afternoon timeslot on ABC each week, plus the opportunity to have additional primetime timeslots on ABC, the other conferences are definitely going to be losing out on ABC coverage. Do you guys think that means Disney is planning on not renewing or, at a minimum, altering their contracts with the other conferences moving forward?

The B1G's contract ends after 2022-2023.
The PAC-12's contract ends after 2023-2024.
The Big 12's contract ends after 2024-2025.

I could see lots of different scenarios happening. I could see FOX throwing huge money at the B1G to get them to go all-in with FOX, FS1, FS2. If that didn't work, I could see them trying to go all in with the Big 12 or PAC-12. I could see CBS working with the Big 12 or PAC-12 for a similar deal to what they had with the SEC. I guess the big question is what does Disney have planned and how hard will they fight to keep all of the content they currently have once they add the new SEC games.

(12-11-2020 11:49 AM)Schema Wrote:  With these 15 additional games in the inventory and a guarantee of an afternoon timeslot on ABC each week, plus the opportunity to have additional primetime timeslots on ABC, the other conferences are definitely going to be losing out on ABC coverage. Do you guys think that means Disney is planning on not renewing or, at a minimum, altering their contracts with the other conferences moving forward?

The B1G's contract ends after 2022-2023.
The PAC-12's contract ends after 2023-2024.
The Big 12's contract ends after 2024-2025.

I could see lots of different scenarios happening. I could see FOX throwing huge money at the B1G to get them to go all-in with FOX, FS1, FS2. If that didn't work, I could see them trying to go all in with the Big 12 or PAC-12. I could see CBS working with the Big 12 or PAC-12 for a similar deal to what they had with the SEC. I guess the big question is what does Disney have planned and how hard will they fight to keep all of the content they currently have once they add the new SEC games.

if the pac poaches ou & osu ...

CEASE TO EXIST

(12-11-2020 06:31 AM)green Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:06 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 06:25 PM)nole Wrote:  Revenue gap now roughly at $20 million per team per year.....some projections have that going to over $40 million per year per team.

Interesting times.

Interesting times indeed. This will have a bigger impact on Big 12 in my opinion. Texas may lose to A&M in the revenue battles even with LHN and that’s when Big 12 will collapse.

If Texas and OK joins the SEC, the revenue gap will become even bigger.

oklahoma & oklahoma state to pac-12 ...
ut to ACC ...

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST

Pac-12 rejected OU and Ok state last time. Is Pac-12 more desperate now? If yes and if OU must go with Ok state, then yes I can see that couple join the Pac-12.

I am more skeptical of UT to the ACC now. Unless ESPN significantly boosts the LHN payout, the SEC money would be too attractive.

Unfortunately, I don't see what the next play for the ACC could even be aside from convincing Notre Dame to join as a full member. Keep in mind, Notre Dame is contractually prohibited from joining another conference, so its options are limited to the ACC or continuing its independence.

Based on the outcome of the SEC negotiations with ESPN, B1G will undoubtedly see a bump when its current TV deal is up after the 2022-23 season.

The next real moves, though, belong to the Pac 12 and Big 12. They're contracts are up after the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons, respectively. Both conferences will be looking for a way to keep up with the SEC and B1G as much as they can.

As history has often proven to be a good predictor of future moves, I would look for the Pac 12 to try to add four members from the B12, consisting of Texas, OU and 2 out of 3 from among TTU, OSU and KU. This is similar to their play back in 2011 and 2012 to go to 16.

This move would provide the P12 with a television footprint similar in size to the B1G and SEC, and would allow it to offer weekly games in the Noon ET time slot. This, of course, creates a dilemma for the 6 schools not invited by the P12, which may provide the ACC some options.

(12-11-2020 11:49 AM)Schema Wrote:  With these 15 additional games in the inventory and a guarantee of an afternoon timeslot on ABC each week, plus the opportunity to have additional primetime timeslots on ABC, the other conferences are definitely going to be losing out on ABC coverage. Do you guys think that means Disney is planning on not renewing or, at a minimum, altering their contracts with the other conferences moving forward?

The B1G's contract ends after 2022-2023.
The PAC-12's contract ends after 2023-2024.
The Big 12's contract ends after 2024-2025.

I could see lots of different scenarios happening. I could see FOX throwing huge money at the B1G to get them to go all-in with FOX, FS1, FS2. If that didn't work, I could see them trying to go all in with the Big 12 or PAC-12. I could see CBS working with the Big 12 or PAC-12 for a similar deal to what they had with the SEC. I guess the big question is what does Disney have planned and how hard will they fight to keep all of the content they currently have once they add the new SEC games.

The ESPN / Disney Strategy has been pretty clear for a long time. Once Boomers are out of the picture (statistically by 2036) there is only one region of the country where football is still beloved enough at the lower levels to keep the game profitable, the Southeast and Southwest.

Take some pins and plot all Disney properties that they own 100% on a map. They own literally all rights south of Virginia over to Missouri and South to Louisiana. They own all of the rights to the AAC teams in Texas and Oklahoma. Acquiring 100% of the rights to the Big 12 schools to control the largest football first states and their advertising rates for live events is their objective. That means picking up Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech and likely Baylor and T.C.U..

Maybe ESPN wants Kansas hoops but certainly not any football schools north of Oklahoma.

ESPN owns ~48% of the rights to Big 10 football and that is likely all they want. That gives them access to enough games weekly to pull in ad revenue from that region without having to buy 14 schools totally to just get 6 or 7. ESPN cherry picks the Big 10 for weekly #1 or #2 picks. Does anyone think they want to pay big money for Purdue vs Rutgers or Minnesota vs Northwestern, or anyone versus Illinois?

ESPN owns 0% of the PAC rights. They along with FOX lease 50% of the PAC rights each where again they are simply trying to fill 1 time slot, the late one with a #1 or #2 pick of games.

So Disney isn't out to corner the market on College Football, they are out to corner the market on college football where the sport will still be popular after 2036. And they want a toe in the Northern Midwest and in the Pacific West.

FOX isn't even that interested in college sports. They are going hard and heavy after pro sports. I can see them keeping the Big 10 and their lease in the PAC but they have already backed away from the Big 12 in part.

I expect the Big 10 to get a 10% to 15% bump on their revenue when they reup. People forget that the SEC's deal with CBS was for about 20 years and has been woefully outdated since 2010 prices were established. FOX's current rates were new 4 years ago and will only be 6 years old when they rework them. So the Big 10's valuations were much more current than those of the SEC's T1 inventory.

If the Big 10 gets a 10% bump, which is generous now that national appeal is starting to dip for a variety of reasons with regards to college football, they would be within 4 million of the SEC. If they get fortunate and get a 15% bump they will be within 2 million of the SEC. The SEC and Big 10 have historically been within 2 million of one another one way or the other when contracts were renewed roughly at the same time. So that's what I expect.

The question is who does ESPN land 100% of the Big 12's rights? Do they go after all of the rights, or do they lure Texa-homa to the SEC with the new rates and fold T.C.U. and Baylor into the AAC? Do they simply cherry pick Texas and Oklahoma and lure them to the conference they want them in with perks? Since ESPN wants a monopoly on sports rights in the sports crazy states my guess is they would prefer to separate the Texas schools and Oklahoma schools from Iowa State the two Kansas teams and West Virginia.

With Texas in the SEC the LHN revenue is eclipsed and that situation is resolved. Plus in a streaming world UT in the SEC is worth vastly more than anywhere else to them. That's true for Oklahoma as well.

But 65% of the total commercial value of the Big 12 resides in just Texas and Oklahoma. Making the AAC a Texas centric conference pays dividends to ESPN as well because of a regional audience of nearly 33 million between Texas and Oklahoma. Put Tech, Baylor, and T.C.U. along with OSU in the AAC adding them to S.M.U. and Houston and Tulsa and you have a massive regional appeal that helps the valuation of the product of the AAC. Eliminate the Big 12 by then moving Texas and Oklahoma into the SEC and perhaps a Kansas to go with Notre Dame to the ACC where N.D. adds football cred and Kansa is a content multiplier for hoops and that makes some sense as well.

So in short I see nothing that is going to alter the ESPN/Disney approach to rights. They already know where the future of football resides, they like the baseball tournament, and they have plenty of valuable basketball. What they want is exclusively high advertising rates for having the only path to advertising live sports for college loyal fans in the Southeast and Southwest. They only have 6 schools to acquire to have it all and none of them are in the PAC 12 or Big 10.

(12-11-2020 10:41 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 09:48 AM)nole Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 09:38 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 09:30 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  Of course they will. That’s what parasites do.....feed off the host and contribute nothing of value.

ND contributed a lot to the ACC this season.

The top four ACC rated TV games all involved ND.

Clemson @ Notre Dame NBC 10.07M

Notre Dame @ North Carolina ABC 6.08M

Notre Dame @ BC ABC 5.14M

Duke @ Notre Dame NBC 4.32M

It doesn't matter anymore.

ACC is going to fall behind at an increasing rate with or without ND.

ND is honestly irrelevant now in THIS discussion of revenue. A gap of $40 milllion plus......doesn't matter.

Be independent, don't. There is the P2 and everyone else. Folks don't believe it now or wont. But they will see it in 5 years or so. The P2 will add schools like OU, Texas, UNC, Duke and it will become even more obvious.

Those on the outside....will be very aware of it.

Ooooo, the Big Bad Power 2....you mean Alabama and Ohio State? As long as the playoff model is set-up the way it is, those are the roads every team in those conferences must cross to make the playoffs. Saban can’t coach forever—at least I don’t believe he can, but he might upload his consciousness into an automaton and try. I remember life before Saban, and Bama had truckloads of money then.

So far, more money has NOT equaled on-field success. There will NEVER be some mass exodus of head coaches to become assistants, whether they make more or not.

At what point does all this extra money not make a difference? Look, I know every program wants as much as possible, but are they not already raking in a ton??

Finally, is a doomsday scenario really all that bad? Sure the history of grand old conferences would be lost to the annals of “athletic museums” in mega sports complexes, but essentially we would see partitioned conferences within conferences, or leagues. Florida would hardly ever play the likes of Oklahoma and Texas. On the flip side, Alabama might be separated from long standing foe Ole Miss. so I’m not quite sold every school is standing on the same ground as far as expansion is concerned.

I just don’t see the SEC or BIG go over 16. So maybe we are close to the end state than many people think. The revenue gap may remain and become permanent. That is not necessarilly bad as long as we have stability. There is a big revenue gap between P5 and G5 but the system still runs OK.

(12-11-2020 12:16 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 06:31 AM)green Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:06 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 06:25 PM)nole Wrote:  Revenue gap now roughly at $20 million per team per year.....some projections have that going to over $40 million per year per team.

Interesting times.

Interesting times indeed. This will have a bigger impact on Big 12 in my opinion. Texas may lose to A&M in the revenue battles even with LHN and that’s when Big 12 will collapse.

If Texas and OK joins the SEC, the revenue gap will become even bigger.

oklahoma & oklahoma state to pac-12 ...
ut to ACC ...

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST

Pac-12 rejected OU and Ok state last time. Is Pac-12 more desperate now? If yes and if OU must go with Ok state, then yes I can see that couple join the Pac-12.

I am more skeptical of UT to the ACC now. Unless ESPN significantly boosts the LHN payout, the SEC money would be too attractive.

no amount of money can get them to give up their own network ...
and for the sec ...
that’s a nonstarter ...

GIVE IT UP

ESPN is simply setting the table to kill The Big 12.

It goes to show you how much money College football is making ESPN when they can afford to spend an additional $35 million per school per year for essentially 1 extra game a week.

(12-11-2020 08:04 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  ESPN is simply setting the table to kill The Big 12.

Totally agree. I don't even care anymore because there are only about 10 programs that can realistically make it to CFP anyway. The rest of the football programs are nothing more than tune-up games for the KINGS OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL; you guys know exactly which football programs I am talking about. We all want each of our respective universities in the best conferences, playing the best football programs, & making the most money from TV revenues...But yes, come 2026, the BIG XII will be no more.

(12-12-2020 12:18 AM)jtwvu87 Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 08:04 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  ESPN is simply setting the table to kill The Big 12.

Totally agree. I don't even care anymore because there are only about 10 programs that can realistically make it to CFP anyway. The rest of the football programs are nothing more than tune-up games for the KINGS OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL; you guys know exactly which football programs I am talking about. We all want each of our respective universities in the best conferences, playing the best football programs, & making the most money from TV revenues...But yes, come 2026, the BIG XII will be no more.

Sad but true...
The “eligible” teams are selected before the season begins. That’s why you never seen any team outside the P5. It’s also why you only have 4 spots and 5 so-called Power Conferences.

Certain teams will never be allowed to represent their conference in the CFP. For example if Louisville went undefeated in The ACC, I have no doubt the committee would put a one loss SEC or one loss Big Ten team in the playoffs ahead of them.

It is what it is. The parochial nature of college football will eventually be its downfall.