(08-09-2020 10:09 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: We have two COVID vaccines in round three clinicals. They could be ready for limited deployment as early as September. If the punt is to Spring then what they're really saying is "we want to buy time for a vaccine."
While I would love to see a vaccine ready for even limited deployment in September, that's just not gonna happen, IMO.
The round three human trials won't be over until sometime this fall. After that, they will need at least a couple of months to analyze the data from the tens of thousand of human volunteers. While the initial lab results appear to be promising, we won't really know the full efficacy or safety of these vaccines until we get these results. One thing I do know - having been around for the 1975 swine flu vaccine sh*tshow, they will not rush anything out to the public until they are sure it has some degree of efficacy and it is safe.
Given the time it is going to take to ramp up production, I don't think we be seeing any meaningful vaccination programs until late winter/ early spring, next year, at the earliest. Even then - I don't think there will be enough of a stock to vaccinate everyone who wants it. I would guess the priority will be (1) front line healthcare workers, (2) people will compromised health, (3) people over age 60, and then everyone else. Young healthy athletes will probably rank in the last category.
As we move into the fall/winter flu season, it is not unreasonable to assume that things might get a bit worse before getting better. I am not arguing for or against a fall sports season, but, IMO, thinking that CFB can be punted to the spring seems to me like wishful thinking at best, and magical thinking at worst.
Again, I am certainly not advocating for this, but if they cancel the fall sports season, I don't see how they can go forward with winter sports (BB and hockey, for example) that are played INDOORS. I think the spring will also be iffy.
The other alternative is to learn to live with this. If the vaccines are a bust, we will really have no other choice.
Just my 2 cents.