Atlanta
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I Root For: Memphis Tigers
Location: Metro Atlanta
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RE: American is power 5 right now.
(06-26-2020 11:51 AM)Tiger87 Wrote: (06-25-2020 09:54 PM)Atlanta Wrote:
UTK lost to GA St, Michigan lost to App St, & with that in mind we can lose to most anyone on our schedule. The odds may be low but it happens & a loss to one of the low level G-5s would be much worse to our program than a P5 loss. And clearly you are wrong on your Mizzou example. We lost to Temple last season, we still won the AAC & played in a NY6 bowl. And this goes for the AAC champ in most years - win the conference with 2 or less losses & you get the NY6 bowl. And don't forget, the P5 will bring us more revenue than a low level G5 - revenue that is sorely needed. Yes, we do sell 20K additional tickets for P5s other than OM & UTK - example UCLA, somewhere between 45,000 - 50K, and we avg about 25K for low level G5s wuth Kroger tickets. Your argument has nothing to offer but a weak defense of a weak OOC schedule - and this season, other than UCF & maybe UH, a relatively weak home conference schedule.
Geez, guy. You just have so much wrong with your argument, and you don't get it. So this is probably my last attempt at correcting some of your wrongness.
Yes, we can lose to anyone. If we lose to a So Alabama, we weren't going to run the AAC gauntlet anyway. We obviously wouldn't have the team for it. So we weren't going to achieve the goal anyway. It will end up being a bad season and we move on. Your example of UTK is nonsensical because they weren't going to be contending for their ultimate goal (playoffs) either. (However it does show you can lose a terrible game and still halfway recover the season, so that goes against your logic of how devastating that would be.)
Playing most P5s on the road, we would be the underdog - even if we have the team to challenge for the AAC. So we very well could lose the game and lose the shot for the ultimate goal. The risk is so much higher. And what is the reward for that risk? One future home game that MIGHT get you a bump of 5,000 tickets? The team and athletic dept don't want to trade a Cotton Bowl appearance for an extra 5,000 seats for 1 game in the future. And remember, you're talking about getting 1 extra P5 every 3 years or so - it's not like you're adding this +5k tickets every single year. It doesn't work that way.
The Temple loss is an example of what is likely to happen every year, even when we have really good teams - losing a road AAC game. It's why we can't afford to load up on road P5 games. Multiple losses will hurt our chances at the goal.
We've already corrected you on the Kroger tickets.
And there have been multiple threads that dissect attendance. I've shared the analysis. The #1 correlating factor for attendance is whether the Tigers are winning or not. There is a 63% correlation to win/loss record, and a 40% correlation to conference affiliation. In Sept 2017 we only had 4,700 more people for UCLA than we did for So Illinois the very next week. In 2016, Kansas was our lowest attended home game all year. Last year, mighty Old Miss with all of their local fans drew only 9k more than Southern the next week, and 15k fewer than SMU.
Our FCS games have averaged 36k over the past 5 years, not the 25k you claim. You're not getting a 20k bump in attendance for a P5.
Finally, this year's conference schedule is as strong as you're ever going to get. I enjoy many of your posts, you're just so very, very wrong on this issue.
Just more circular reasoning supported with erroneous attendance stats. Of course if we lose to So AL we aren't going anywhere - my point. Playing & losing to a mid-level or higher P5 won't hurt us, we just have to win the AAC, have 2 losses or less & we likely get the NY6 bowl - and a substantial increase in attendance revenue when the home schedule includes a respected P5. And while I'm discussing attendance, let's look at your statements on attendance. According to official docs obtained by the CA, our attendance from the 2016 season (compared to 2015) thru 2018 season declined every season (CA 1/29/19). Why, a weak home schedule. Her's that weak 2018 season attendance:
Memphis 2018 actual attendance vs. announced attendance
Here is a look at Memphis home attendance figures for the 2018 season. The actual attendance is listed first with announced attendance in parentheses, based on data obtained by The Commercial Appeal.
Mercer – 24,107 (33,697)
Georgia State – 17,121 (27,678)
South Alabama – 15,439 (27,765)
UConn – 16,734 (27,581)
UCF – 24,117 (38,831)
Tulsa – 12,059 (27,905)
Houston – 15,066 (27,790)
Quite a difference between what you'd have us believe about attendance & reality - even using the higher announced numbers. And I have no idea where you get this avg of 35K from FCS games. In my investigation, I can't find but 2-3 FCS games that have ever had an attendance even close to 35K. And your implication that conference games draw well, apparently you don't attend late season games when we play Tulsa, Tulane or when we played UConn - some of the lowest attended games we play - FCS included (when they are played early in the season). And BTW, the above is just one example, I could post most every year & show the same. The outliers are 2015 & 2019 when we had much better attendance. We both know the difference in those years - we played a P5 at home.
And BTW, there is no official policy of playing just one Kroger game per year, there is no policy that the Kroger game is an FCS game (it was the UL-Monroe game just a couple of years ago @ $5/ticket) - contrary to your statements. And if our attendance is lagging the admin will not hesitate to do a Kroger promo for a televised game to improve the TV look. Don't forget, those FCS games - we also pay them to come play. Not AL type payments but between $100K - $250K. Just another reason we need a P5 at home - revenue.
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