(03-11-2020 08:39 PM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  NBA suspends season after Rudy Gobert tests positive for COVID-19.

If an NBA player in incredible shape dies then I will worry.

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(03-11-2020 07:54 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  This is from a medical consulting working in Italy. This does not sound like anyone is overreacting:
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First, Lombardia is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country. The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity.

We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ICUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of patients with severe respiratory failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ICU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ICU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients with Covid-19 on non-invasive ventilators (Oxygen masks).


We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:
1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ER but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panic.
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ER is significantly reduced so everything looks great
3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then ventilators, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.

Yep, the mortality rate stays relatively low up until we hit 100% of beds in your local hospital. Then it creeps up once the staff is on overtime and they're delaying any elective or potential-to-delay surgery. Once they're on overload and way over capacity, the mortality rate is basically whether you are one of the few to get treated or not.

I keep seeing charts of global mortality rates leveling off...the people posting them not realizing that it's because the countries and regions that were worst affected have completely quarantined themselves. Any chart of mortality rates should be per region along with the % of beds available. I think you'd see a pretty quick correlation.

The best possible outcome is that we go so overboard on quarantining, isolation, and testing that it passes relatively quickly. If we don't this is going to drag on, things will deteriorate, and a LOT of people will die. As far as I've heard there still aren't even enough tests in the US for medical professionals, much less the general public. This is what happens when you don't take things seriously.

WHO says "about 1 in every 5 people who catch COVID-19 need hospital care." so that's 20%. If my math is correct, only about 1.7 - 1.8 percent of people with the flu are hospitalized. And some health experts predict 100 - 150 million in U.S. could get COVID-19. So, yes any attempts to slow this down. Give researchers a chance to develop a vaccine, etc. is welcomed. Not hysteria. As mentioned above, even if you aren't concerned about it affecting you or your family...think about what if you need hospital care for something different - a stroke, a heart attack, car crash.

(03-11-2020 09:32 PM)jmufan2008 Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 07:54 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  This is from a medical consulting working in Italy. This does not sound like anyone is overreacting:
------
First, Lombardia is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country. The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity.

We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ICUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of patients with severe respiratory failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ICU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ICU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients with Covid-19 on non-invasive ventilators (Oxygen masks).


We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:
1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ER but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panic.
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ER is significantly reduced so everything looks great
3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then ventilators, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.

Yep, the mortality rate stays relatively low up until we hit 100% of beds in your local hospital. Then it creeps up once the staff is on overtime and they're delaying any elective or potential-to-delay surgery. Once they're on overload and way over capacity, the mortality rate is basically whether you are one of the few to get treated or not.

I keep seeing charts of global mortality rates leveling off...the people posting them not realizing that it's because the countries and regions that were worst affected have completely quarantined themselves. Any chart of mortality rates should be per region along with the % of beds available. I think you'd see a pretty quick correlation.

The best possible outcome is that we go so overboard on quarantining, isolation, and testing that it passes relatively quickly. If we don't this is going to drag on, things will deteriorate, and a LOT of people will die. As far as I've heard there still aren't even enough tests in the US for medical professionals, much less the general public. This is what happens when you don't take things seriously.

That and hope this thing mostly dies out (like a lot of viruses) in warm/hot weather. Relatively few cases India (next to China, but warmer climate), Africa, and S America. And there's a lot of densely packed cities with poor sanitation. I've seen the speculation that this could be like the flu viruses in that it mostly dies out in the summer, then flares back up in the late fall/early winter..But none of the experts know for sure..
https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03/09/...ronavirus/

(03-11-2020 08:18 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  https://www.bing.com/videos/search?view=...-6dcb-4f9e

I will take 8 hours of fever and a dry cough compared to the 3-4 weeks of crap that my wife and I suffered through after Frisco.

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(03-12-2020 12:34 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 09:32 PM)jmufan2008 Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 07:54 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  This is from a medical consulting working in Italy. This does not sound like anyone is overreacting:
------
First, Lombardia is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country. The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity.

We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ICUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of patients with severe respiratory failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ICU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ICU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients with Covid-19 on non-invasive ventilators (Oxygen masks).


We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:
1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ER but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panic.
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ER is significantly reduced so everything looks great
3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then ventilators, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.

Yep, the mortality rate stays relatively low up until we hit 100% of beds in your local hospital. Then it creeps up once the staff is on overtime and they're delaying any elective or potential-to-delay surgery. Once they're on overload and way over capacity, the mortality rate is basically whether you are one of the few to get treated or not.

I keep seeing charts of global mortality rates leveling off...the people posting them not realizing that it's because the countries and regions that were worst affected have completely quarantined themselves. Any chart of mortality rates should be per region along with the % of beds available. I think you'd see a pretty quick correlation.

The best possible outcome is that we go so overboard on quarantining, isolation, and testing that it passes relatively quickly. If we don't this is going to drag on, things will deteriorate, and a LOT of people will die. As far as I've heard there still aren't even enough tests in the US for medical professionals, much less the general public. This is what happens when you don't take things seriously.

That and hope this thing mostly dies out (like a lot of viruses) in warm/hot weather. Relatively few cases India (next to China, but warmer climate), Africa, and S America. And there's a lot of densely packed cities with poor sanitation. I've seen the speculation that this could be like the flu viruses in that it mostly dies out in the summer, then flares back up in the late fall/early winter..But none of the experts know for sure..
https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03/09/...ronavirus/

BDK listen to the Joe Rogan Podcast with Michael Osterholm (Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.)

He completely debunks the (ridiculous) warm weather theory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

I've heard one expert say evidence suggests coronavirus transmissions aren't impeded by warmer weather much, if at all. MERS infections regularly spread in 100+ degree heat. While SARS did recede by summer of that year, it was mainly due to quick diagnosis and quarantine of patients as symptoms appeared days before the patient was communicable.

Edit: Yeah, what DirtyDukes posted (while I was typing). ^^^

Italy's mortality rate is much higher because it's the 2nd largest elderly population in the world. 23% of their population is over age 65. If 8-14% of them die, yeah that's going to drive up their mortality rate.

(03-12-2020 08:36 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  Italy's mortality rate is much higher because it's the 2nd largest elderly population in the world. 23% of their population is over age 65. If 8-14% of them die, yeah that's going to drive up their mortality rate.

That is a part of it. A larger part of it is the healthcare system is overrun, leading to triage medicine.

(03-12-2020 08:48 AM)JMU2004 Wrote:  

(03-12-2020 08:36 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  Italy's mortality rate is much higher because it's the 2nd largest elderly population in the world. 23% of their population is over age 65. If 8-14% of them die, yeah that's going to drive up their mortality rate.

That is a part of it. A larger part of it is the healthcare system is overrun, leading to triage medicine.

Yes, their healthcare is much difference than anyone else. Their hospitals are not as set up with the different departments such as emergency rooms. Interesting all the new things I'm finding out this week.


It's good there will be no fans allowed at the women's CAA Tourny. Our Women's fans seem to average a higher age. I assume this is the case for other schools as well.

The "flu" (and there are always various strains) kills about 56,000 people a year in the U S (most of them in the "high risk" categories) and they don't shut everything down for the flu each year. With the Coronavirus, high risk individuals just need to be vigilant about taking the precautions they need to (not going out in public, hygiene, etc) to stay protected and prevent being exposed. Not sure shutting everything down is the answer.

(03-12-2020 09:25 AM)formerjmusprinter84 Wrote:  The "flu" (and there are always various strains) kills about 56,000 people a year in the U S (most of them in the "high risk" categories) and they don't shut everything down for the flu each year. With the Coronavirus, high risk individuals just need to be vigilant about taking the precautions they need to (not going out in public, hygiene, etc) to stay protected and prevent being exposed. Not sure shutting everything down is the answer.

There is anecdotal evidence coming from Seattle that this is spreading among even small gatherings of people who are asymptomatic at the time.

One person published their full experience with it on Facebook, and while they pulled thru, the manner in which this is spreading is troublesome. Even people who avoid crowds and those who appear sick are contracting/spreading it.

Social "distancing", while something we don't enjoy, is a wise policy for now.

(03-11-2020 09:11 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 08:39 PM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  NBA suspends season after Rudy Gobert tests positive for COVID-19.

If an NBA player in incredible shape dies then I will worry.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

Yeah, no need to worry that a player coughs near a ref, who then goes home to his/her spouse that works in a hospital, and spreads it to elderly patients. Or a kid fighting cancer. Didn't we in fact establish at least one of the coaching candidates we've mentioned has a spouse that works in the medical field? Players have kids and families right? The virus can stay contagious for an hour or more airborne, and possibly a day or more on surfaces.

This thing probably doesn't need to be as big a deal as it is, but as long as big strong internet tough guys continue to blow it off and trample through their local Waffle House with their unwashed hands it'll spread quicker than it should.

Didn't read Dirty's link, but I'm sure it mentions what these "warm weather" posers neglect to factor in- even if weather played a role, it's warm (summer) in only half the planet, the other hemisphere is experiencing winter and a virus can remain in that population, only to get re-introduced. Why do you think the flu never goes away?

(03-12-2020 09:25 AM)formerjmusprinter84 Wrote:  The "flu" (and there are always various strains) kills about 56,000 people a year in the U S (most of them in the "high risk" categories) and they don't shut everything down for the flu each year. With the Coronavirus, high risk individuals just need to be vigilant about taking the precautions they need to (not going out in public, hygiene, etc) to stay protected and prevent being exposed. Not sure shutting everything down is the answer.

The big difference being that with most flu strains the incubation period is 1-4 days and MOST people will show symptoms. So people know they have it and know they have it pretty quickly after getting it, so they can avoid contact with other people. COVID-19 has a median incubation period above 5 days, apparently sometimes taking up to 2 weeks before showing symptoms...the worst part being that a majority of those under 40 and nearly all of those under 10 or 20 won't ever show symptoms. That means that it's much harder to just say "if you feel sick stay home." So while it may not spread just by being near someone, the issue is that most people won't ever know that they have it and are passing it on. And because there aren't enough tests to go around, it's very likely that there are several times more cases than are being reported and we have no idea. My parents are nearly 70, so the thought of me catching it, not knowing, and passing it onto them is pretty scary. Or my 11-month-old catching it and passing it onto them because he does nothing but drool, poop, and cough these days...

It's not hard to conceive that there could be several people at all of those large games/conferences/events that have it without knowing it. They've all traveled in from out of town and it starts spreading at the event. They spread it to dozens or hundreds around them and then those people travel back to their hometowns and because it still hasn't shown symptoms they'll come into contact with all their normal family, friends, and coworkers spreading it further. Regular season games are far less issue than national tournaments or conferences, because most people would be local or at worst regional. When you're traveling and then coming in close contact with thousands of people (who aren't going to self-quarantine and choose to miss a large event), that's when it gets dangerous.

(03-12-2020 09:55 AM)2Buck Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 09:11 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 08:39 PM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  NBA suspends season after Rudy Gobert tests positive for COVID-19.

If an NBA player in incredible shape dies then I will worry.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

Yeah, no need to worry that a player coughs near a ref, who then goes home to his/her spouse that works in a hospital, and spreads it to elderly patients. Or a kid fighting cancer. Didn't we in fact establish at least one of the coaching candidates we've mentioned has a spouse that works in the medical field? Players have kids and families right? The virus can stay contagious for an hour or more airborne, and possibly a day or more on surfaces.

This thing probably doesn't need to be as big a deal as it is, but as long as big strong internet tough guys continue to blow it off and trample through their local Waffle House with their unwashed hands it'll spread quicker than it should.

Heh, Gobert did much more than that
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsspor...virus/amp/

(03-12-2020 09:25 AM)formerjmusprinter84 Wrote:  The "flu" (and there are always various strains) kills about 56,000 people a year in the U S (most of them in the "high risk" categories) and they don't shut everything down for the flu each year. With the Coronavirus, high risk individuals just need to be vigilant about taking the precautions they need to (not going out in public, hygiene, etc) to stay protected and prevent being exposed. Not sure shutting everything down is the answer.

This logic is infuriating. The Flu infects 10's of millions every year, and COVID-19 is anywhere from 2-3 times as contagious as the flu. If this bug were to infect as many people as the flu, millions die.

So, this bug spreads more easily and is anywhere from 10-20X more deadly than the flu. In short, far more contagious, far more deadly.

Stop the comparison. It is wrong.

(03-12-2020 10:15 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(03-12-2020 09:55 AM)2Buck Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 09:11 PM)JMU85 Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 08:39 PM)DukeDogNation Wrote:  NBA suspends season after Rudy Gobert tests positive for COVID-19.

If an NBA player in incredible shape dies then I will worry.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

Yeah, no need to worry that a player coughs near a ref, who then goes home to his/her spouse that works in a hospital, and spreads it to elderly patients. Or a kid fighting cancer. Didn't we in fact establish at least one of the coaching candidates we've mentioned has a spouse that works in the medical field? Players have kids and families right? The virus can stay contagious for an hour or more airborne, and possibly a day or more on surfaces.

This thing probably doesn't need to be as big a deal as it is, but as long as big strong internet tough guys continue to blow it off and trample through their local Waffle House with their unwashed hands it'll spread quicker than it should.

Heh, Gobert did much more than that
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsspor...virus/amp/

But hey, I guess as long as Gobert didn't scrub his rectum with those microphones and then shove them in JMU85's mouth, he's not going to worry.

Here's something I got from sis-in-law who is a doctor. Perhaps it might rest your minds a little.
http://theconversation.com/coronavirus-t...nic-132941

Also, people, there's a restaurant in the 'burg that is reportedly suffering a bit economically due to some anti-Asian feeling this thing has reportedly stirred up. https://www.whsv.com/content/news/Local-...25341.html The food is good. Help these nice folks out. Go get takeout or something, there or some other Chinese place. Thanks.

MLS has now suspended its season. Will be interesting to see what MLB does.

(03-12-2020 10:19 AM)orange-to-purple Wrote:  Here's something I got from sis-in-law who is a doctor. Perhaps it might rest your minds a little.
http://theconversation.com/coronavirus-t...nic-132941

Also, people, there's a restaurant in the 'burg that is reportedly suffering a bit economically due to some anti-Asian feeling this thing has reportedly stirred up. https://www.whsv.com/content/news/Local-...25341.html The food is good. Help these nice folks out. Go get takeout or something, there or some other Chinese place. Thanks.

One of the key points:

Quote:The strong control and isolation measures imposed by China are paying off.

This isn't going away in China because it's naturally just curing itself. China imposed MASSIVE quarantines and restrictions, far past cancelling or postponing some sporting events. That's one of the main reasons they're seeing results.