That’s a real shame for everyone involved. Monday was a heck of a night and great experience. That’s going to be the last lived/shared memory we have of possibly the best team in our history. We’ll all be pulling like crazy for our guys on TV but honestly this sucks. Maybe the NCAA should postpone a couple weeks then shorten the layoff between games. Let’s see how this thing plays out before we totally lose our minds.

(03-11-2020 04:00 PM)etsuBucsFan1988 Wrote:  There better not be one damn reporter at any of these games.


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If I can't go to the game, I certainly want TV crews and announcers there to give me all the info that they can. Once upon a time live attendance and people called "reporters" were the only way we had to find out what was happening.

Ronald Reagan got an early job as a radio announcer reading stats off a ticker tape and "imagining" the scene for a radio audience as if he were actually there, describing a game that he never actually saw. I think we've gone beyond that, but I'd sure like to have the best live broadcast possible.

After a season of intensely following this great team, missing it is going to hurt like hell!

After watching the news I am now resigned to not going watch the Bucs play or any other team play in person. I see where Jerry Palm still has the Bucs "battling for an automatic bid". Joe Lunardi still has us playing Michigan as an 11 seed which I think is what he had up two days ago. I realize the only bracket that counts comes out Sunday night but a lot of the fun to me is constantly keeping up with the ever changing bracketology. It is interesting to see what everyone else thinks of our team.

Hopefully these precautionary measures will be effective. It is unfortunate that someone with a bully pulpit compared this to the flu. It isn't.

In what I do, I deal in facts.

COVID-19's mortality rate is 34 times that of the flu. Let that sink in...

It is considerably more contagious than the flu. The contagion rate (1.2) is considerably higher than the flu (0.8).

For those who would say that the US is prepared...the US healthcare system is ranked 37 in the world by the WHO, Italy is ranked 2 and look how Coronavirus has wreaked havoc on their country.

While I love that ETSU is in the dance, I don't think it is worth people risking serious illness or death.

(03-11-2020 07:03 PM)BucDoctor Wrote:  Hopefully these precautionary measures will be effective. It is unfortunate that someone with a bully pulpit compared this to the flu. It isn't.

In what I do, I deal in facts.

COVID-19's mortality rate is 34 times that of the flu. Let that sink in...

It is considerably more contagious than the flu. The contagion rate (1.2) is considerably higher than the flu (0.8).

For those who would say that the US is prepared...the US healthcare system is ranked 37 in the world by the WHO, Italy is ranked 2 and look how Coronavirus has wreaked havoc on their country.

While I love that ETSU is in the dance, I don't think it is worth people risking serious illness or death.

Thank you, BucDoctor. A respect for facts is unfortunately in short supply in our current political situation.

NBA player Rudy Gobert, a French National, has tested positive for corona virus. Jazz and Thunder players are in quarantine, and the NBA has suspended the season to consider options.

Things that looked excessive a few days ago are appearing to be common sense today.

Crazy to think that the Bucs might make the NCAA tournament and not actually play in it. The rate of things getting canceled today makes me think college sports are next on the block. Will be interesting to see. NBA is a huge domino to fall.

(03-11-2020 07:03 PM)BucDoctor Wrote:  In what I do, I deal in facts.

COVID-19's mortality rate is 34 times that of the flu. Let that sink in...

It is considerably more contagious than the flu. The contagion rate (1.2) is considerably higher than the flu (0.8).

For those who would say that the US is prepared...the US healthcare system is ranked 37 in the world by the WHO, Italy is ranked 2 and look how Coronavirus has wreaked havoc on their country.

While I love that ETSU is in the dance, I don't think it is worth people risking serious illness or death.

Thank you. Would you mind providing some clarification?

At this early point in the outbreak, with only the tiniest fraction of the world's population having been tested, how can we make an accurate or "factual" determination of the contagion and mortality rates? Aren't those numbers likely to be revised, perhaps significantly, in either direction?

Can you explain contagion rate? I assume that number is the average number of people someone with the virus will go on to infect. But, if that number is greater than 1, then wouldn't everyone eventually get infected? Does that number fluctuate according to the season? (I obviously haven't wrapped my head around how this number is determined.)

Finally, if I become infected with the Wuhan virus, do you think there are 36 countries that will provide better treatment than the U.S., and is Italy one of them?

Over under for The tournament not even being played .... Friday, Saturday?


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(03-11-2020 09:04 PM)etsuBucsFan1988 Wrote:  Over under for The tournament not even being played .... Friday, Saturday?


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Really hoping they consider postponing the tournament until late April or so. I'd say its almost certain to not be played as scheduled.

I think the tournament gets suspended, maybe even cancelled, who knows.

(03-11-2020 08:58 PM)MercerFan Wrote:  Crazy to think that the Bucs might make the NCAA tournament and not actually play in it. The rate of things getting canceled today makes me think college sports are next on the block. Will be interesting to see. NBA is a huge domino to fall.

Very fluid situation. But the numbers are there, and they are concerning. If you go by international numbers, it looks like BucDoctor is right, that mortality rate based on international reported numbers is 34 times that of seasonal flu (which is about 0.1%). Anthony Fauci is using the figure 10 times as much as 0.1%. He is a highly respected scientist, but I'm not sure exactly where that number comes from. Either number is staggering when you consider that seasonal flu affects many millions. And unlike seasonal flu, there is no vaccine for this novel corona virus COVID-19.

At least we seem to be past the period of trying to claim that this is a political hoax. Hopefully we get a plan of action that is based on facts, not politics.

As a guy in the vulnerable range at age 69, they've certainly got my attention.

Watching the Big 10 tournament; no handshake line after the game.

(03-11-2020 09:03 PM)Flippmb Wrote:  

(03-11-2020 07:03 PM)BucDoctor Wrote:  In what I do, I deal in facts.

COVID-19's mortality rate is 34 times that of the flu. Let that sink in...

It is considerably more contagious than the flu. The contagion rate (1.2) is considerably higher than the flu (0.8).

For those who would say that the US is prepared...the US healthcare system is ranked 37 in the world by the WHO, Italy is ranked 2 and look how Coronavirus has wreaked havoc on their country.

While I love that ETSU is in the dance, I don't think it is worth people risking serious illness or death.

Thank you. Would you mind providing some clarification?

At this early point in the outbreak, with only the tiniest fraction of the world's population having been tested, how can we make an accurate or "factual" determination of the contagion and mortality rates? Aren't those numbers likely to be revised, perhaps significantly, in either direction? THEY CAN BE REVISED, BUT THEY ARE THE BEST NUMBERS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. REMEMBER, WITH MANY DISEASES ONLY A SMALL FRACTION OF THE POPULATION IS TESTED.

Can you explain contagion rate? I assume that number is the average number of people someone with the virus will go on to infect. CORRECT. But, if that number is greater than 1, then wouldn't everyone eventually get infected? IN THEORY, YES GIVEN ENOUGH TIME AND IF THERE WERE NO EFFECTIVE TREATMENT ALTERNATIVES THAT WOULD BE CORRECT. THE GOAL IS TO GET THAT NUMBER BELOW ONE, THUS THE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES WE SEE BEING TAKEN. Does that number fluctuate according to the season? IT FLUCTUATES BASED ON HUMAN INTERACTION, NO MATTER WHAT THE SEASON. INCREASE THE SOCIAL DISTANCE/DECREASE THE HUMAN INTERACTION AND THE NUMBER SHOULD GO DOWN. THE ISSUE HERE IS THAT THE CONTAGION RATE IS CURRENTLY ABOVE ONE AND SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS MAY NOT BE IMPACTFUL, NO ONE KNOWS YET(I obviously haven't wrapped my head around how this number is determined.)

Finally, if I become infected with the Wuhan virus, do you think there are 36 countries that will provide better treatment than the U.S., and is Italy one of them? YES, UNFORTUNATELY THE DATA INDICATES THAT IS THE CASE. THE US HAS THE MOST EXPENSIVE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM IN THE WORLD BUT WE SPEND OUR MONEY VERY FOOLISHLY, I.E. WE DON'T GET MUCH BANG FOR OUR BUCK.

JUST ONE SMALL EXAMPLE OF WASTING MONEY, THE ONLY 2 COUNTRIES ON EARTH THAT ALLOW PRESCRIPTION DRUG ADVERTISING ARE NEW ZEALAND AND THE US. OTHER COUNTRIES SEE THAT MONEY SPENT ON SOME ASPECT OF CARE. THIS ADVERTISING PROVIDES CARE FOR NO ONE.

See above, all caps so you can see my response, not because I am yelling.

I bet a decision will be made soon.

No real reason to play in even bigger empty arenas if they continue.

Do not need the hotels etc.

(03-11-2020 09:24 PM)BucDoctor Wrote:  See above, all caps so you can see my response, not because I am yelling.

Thanks, BucDoctor, although I admit I still don't grok the contagion rate. But, I figure that's on me, so thanks for trying.

Here's a good, nuanced summary of the transmission and morbidity projections. It's a week old, but I don't think there's been any significant change in localized moribities (that I know of):

How deadly is it - and how much does it depend on your demographic?

Of particular note is that the relatively high death rate, in Hubei, is an area with high COPD rates already, and a MUCH higher smoking rate than in the U.S., for example.

Don't get me wrong; I'm in NO WAY trying to minimize this pandemic. But there *is* a silver lining - if one is younger than BucDoctor, swvabucsfan, and myself - among others of you.

If it is not canceled, The NIT will not be played before fans either. I am so glad we beat Wofford. Nevertheless I was curious if we would have gotten an NIT home game if we had lost. Would not have mattered.

CBI tournament cancelled.

(03-12-2020 02:05 AM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote:  Here's a good, nuanced summary of the transmission and morbidity projections. It's a week old, but I don't think there's been any significant change in localized moribities (that I know of):

How deadly is it - and how much does it depend on your demographic?

Of particular note is that the relatively high death rate, in Hubei, is an area with high COPD rates already, and a MUCH higher smoking rate than in the U.S., for example.

Don't get me wrong; I'm in NO WAY trying to minimize this pandemic. But there *is* a silver lining - if one is younger than BucDoctor, swvabucsfan, and myself - among others of you.

Thanks, Poster, that's an excellent article! I'd recommend that everybody give it a read.

Since the word from the top in America was initially that this was a political hoax, and then that this was just like seasonal flu and would rapidly go away without further ado, it is natural to be concerned. And distrustful of the statements and motivations of our leadership. The focus there appears to be fixing blame on the usual political enemies (foreigners in general, but not the British or the Irish) rather than fixing the problem.

There's good reasoning here to suggest that using international figures to calculate 3.4% is inflated, and even a 1% might be high. That doesn't make it anything like seasonal flu, despite statements from the top. But also not like the Spanish flu epidemic of 100 years ago.

Stay safe, keep reading, but be careful of your sources folks.

(03-12-2020 07:41 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  Since the word from the top in America was initially that this was a political hoax...

That was never said but please keep lecturing us all.