Week 13 CAA Updated CAA Standings
1. JMU 10-1/7-0
2. Albany 7-4/5-2 (@ SBU) (Likely needs to win)
3. VU 8-3/4-3 (UD) (Might need to win).
-- TU 7-4/4-3 (Elon) (Must win).
-- Maine 6-5/4-3 (@ UNH) (Must win and hope).

Eliminated from playoff contention:
-- UNH 5-5/4-3 (Maine) (only 11 games).
— RU 5-6/4-3 (@ JMU, W&M).
8. Elon 4-6/3-4 (only 11 games).
-- UD 5-6/3-4
10. SBU 5-6/2-5
— W&M 4-7/2-5
12. URI 2-9/0-7
.
W&M @ RU (12:00, WTVR 6, Flo).

Maine @ UNH (1 PM, NBC Sports Boston, Flo).

UD @ VU (1 PM, Flo).

Elon @ TU (2 PM, Flo).

Albany @ SBU (2 PM, SNY, Flo).

Other games of interest:
(Thur, 11/21) Nichols St (7-4/6-2, 2 I-A losses) @ SELA (7-3/6-2, only 11 games) Winner Southland AQ, loser is likely out.

Wofford (7-3/6-1) @ The Citadel (6-5/4-3) (12 PM, ESPN+)

Montana (9-2/6-1) @ Montana St (8-3/5-2) (2 PM)

NDSU (11-0/7-0) @ SIU (7-4/5-2) (3:00 PM, ESPN+)

Nichols State 28, SELA 27.

From looking at the ESPN play by play, was tied at 21 4th qtr.
-SELA scores TD with 2:41 left, miss PAT, goes up 27-21.
-Nichols scores TD off 57 yd pass play with 1:30 left, goes up 28-27.
-Nichols only does a 21 yd kickoff.
-SELA drives it down to the Nichols 2 yd line. On 2nd and goal at the Nichols 2, SELA QB fumbles at the 1 yard line with 21 seconds left.

Yeah, I watched the game. Bizarre!

Lots of horrible calls and no-calls. It seemed like SELA had unlimited time outs. The zebras just kept letting them call time outs. It was hilarious.

Then, shades of App State and Sullivan fumbling on the Appy goal line to lose the game. SELA did the same thing. About 20 seconds left and a full set of downs on the Nicholls 2-yard line, down by one point, SELA tried to run the ball into the endzone instead of taking a knee, wasting the clock, and kicking the field goal.

STUPID!!!!

The QB fumbles, Nicholls recovers with about 10 seconds on the clock. SELA had no time outs left, but the zebras gave them a couple extra to keep stopping the clock. Finally, on fourth down, the Nicholls QB heaves the ball 50 yards, not trying to hit a receiver, but just to waste the clock, which was successful. The few seconds the ball was in the air finished the game.

Crazy finish!

(11-21-2019 10:31 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  Nichols State 28, SELA 27.

From looking at the ESPN play by play, was tied at 21 4th qtr.
-SELA scores TD with 2:41 left, miss PAT, goes up 27-21.
-Nichols scores TD off 57 yd pass play with 1:30 left, goes up 28-27.
-Nichols only does a 21 yd kickoff.
-SELA drives it down to the Nichols 2 yd line. On 2nd and goal at the Nichols 2, SELA QB fumbles at the 1 yard line with 21 seconds left.

The 21 yard "kickoff" looked to be a poorly executed onside kick. I'm surprised the statistician categorized it as a kickoff. It definitely wasn't. Nicholls almost recovered the onside kick too, it just didn't bounce their way.

The fumble to end the game was tough because watching it live, it wasn't clear due to all the bodies in the way that it was a fumble. Then they showed four different camera angles, which appeared to be all they had. None of them had any conclusive video evidence to overturn the call on the field or to say it was a fumble. The call on the field had to stand.

Gotta love FCS and their non-existent camera work. Bah Humbug, FloSports!

I still question whether Towson or Albany get in with losses this weekend. To me, those are true play-in games. If they both lose and Maine wins convincingly, I could see the three CAA teams being JMU, VU, and Maine as that would be Maine's fifth win in a row. Add that to them being the only CAA team that showed up in the playoffs last year and you may have some justification. I just don't see four CAA teams getting in this year where two of them only have seven wins, especially after how the CAA performed last year.

That being said, if the games are all chalk this weekend (when's the last time that happened), I think you see JMU, VU, Towson, and Albany with Maine needing some significant help despite being the second hottest team in the conference.

All in all, this should be a very exciting Saturday! Go Flo!

(11-22-2019 08:31 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I still question whether Towson or Albany get in with losses this weekend. To me, those are true play-in games. If they both lose and Maine wins convincingly, I could see the three CAA teams being JMU, VU, and Maine as that would be Maine's fifth win in a row. Add that to them being the only CAA team that showed up in the playoffs last year and you may have some justification. I just don't see four CAA teams getting in this year where two of them only have seven wins, especially after how the CAA performed last year.

That being said, if the games are all chalk this weekend (when's the last time that happened), I think you see JMU, VU, Towson, and Albany with Maine needing some significant help despite being the second hottest team in the conference.

All in all, this should be a very exciting Saturday! Go Flo!

Like I said up top. TU is a must win. They lose and finish 7-5/4-4, they‘re out. Albany likely needs to win.

(11-22-2019 07:52 AM)Potomac Wrote:  

(11-21-2019 10:31 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  Nichols State 28, SELA 27.

From looking at the ESPN play by play, was tied at 21 4th qtr.
-SELA scores TD with 2:41 left, miss PAT, goes up 27-21.
-Nichols scores TD off 57 yd pass play with 1:30 left, goes up 28-27.
-Nichols only does a 21 yd kickoff.
-SELA drives it down to the Nichols 2 yd line. On 2nd and goal at the Nichols 2, SELA QB fumbles at the 1 yard line with 21 seconds left.

The 21 yard "kickoff" looked to be a poorly executed onside kick. I'm surprised the statistician categorized it as a kickoff. It definitely wasn't. Nicholls almost recovered the onside kick too, it just didn't bounce their way.

The fumble to end the game was tough because watching it live, it wasn't clear due to all the bodies in the way that it was a fumble. Then they showed four different camera angles, which appeared to be all they had. None of them had any conclusive video evidence to overturn the call on the field or to say it was a fumble. The call on the field had to stand.

Gotta love FCS and their non-existent camera work. Bah Humbug, FloSports!

The Nicholls QB is horrendous. And horrendously lucky he has that monster WR #5. These teams are trash just like Soft Houston always was. Hope they get sent our way instead of out west since there are so many western teams this year.

(11-22-2019 10:00 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 08:31 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I still question whether Towson or Albany get in with losses this weekend. To me, those are true play-in games. If they both lose and Maine wins convincingly, I could see the three CAA teams being JMU, VU, and Maine as that would be Maine's fifth win in a row. Add that to them being the only CAA team that showed up in the playoffs last year and you may have some justification. I just don't see four CAA teams getting in this year where two of them only have seven wins, especially after how the CAA performed last year.

That being said, if the games are all chalk this weekend (when's the last time that happened), I think you see JMU, VU, Towson, and Albany with Maine needing some significant help despite being the second hottest team in the conference.

All in all, this should be a very exciting Saturday! Go Flo!

Like I said up top. TU is a must win. They lose and finish 7-5/4-4, they‘re out. Albany likely needs to win.

Wasn't disagreeing with you.

Do you think Maine is in under any scenario other than both TU and Albany losses, or do you think they are in with a win and only one of them losing... or the help they need isn't in the CAA?

(11-22-2019 10:45 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 10:00 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 08:31 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I still question whether Towson or Albany get in with losses this weekend. To me, those are true play-in games. If they both lose and Maine wins convincingly, I could see the three CAA teams being JMU, VU, and Maine as that would be Maine's fifth win in a row. Add that to them being the only CAA team that showed up in the playoffs last year and you may have some justification. I just don't see four CAA teams getting in this year where two of them only have seven wins, especially after how the CAA performed last year.

That being said, if the games are all chalk this weekend (when's the last time that happened), I think you see JMU, VU, Towson, and Albany with Maine needing some significant help despite being the second hottest team in the conference.

All in all, this should be a very exciting Saturday! Go Flo!

Like I said up top. TU is a must win. They lose and finish 7-5/4-4, they‘re out. Albany likely needs to win.

Wasn't disagreeing with you.

Do you think Maine is in under any scenario other than both TU and Albany losses, or do you think they are in with a win and only one of them losing... or the help they need isn't in the CAA?

I think Albany losing gives Maine a better shot as they defeated Albany and lost to Towson. So all things being equal if they and Albany are 7-5 5-3 they would get the nod. Good chance that neither gets in in that scenario.

(11-22-2019 10:45 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 10:00 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 08:31 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I still question whether Towson or Albany get in with losses this weekend. To me, those are true play-in games. If they both lose and Maine wins convincingly, I could see the three CAA teams being JMU, VU, and Maine as that would be Maine's fifth win in a row. Add that to them being the only CAA team that showed up in the playoffs last year and you may have some justification. I just don't see four CAA teams getting in this year where two of them only have seven wins, especially after how the CAA performed last year.

That being said, if the games are all chalk this weekend (when's the last time that happened), I think you see JMU, VU, Towson, and Albany with Maine needing some significant help despite being the second hottest team in the conference.

All in all, this should be a very exciting Saturday! Go Flo!

Like I said up top. TU is a must win. They lose and finish 7-5/4-4, they‘re out. Albany likely needs to win.

Wasn't disagreeing with you.

Do you think Maine is in under any scenario other than both TU and Albany losses, or do you think they are in with a win and only one of them losing... or the help they need isn't in the CAA?

Maine could be in if 1 of them loses.

I don't see the help outside the CAA. See the other 9 conferences a lock for 19 spots, plus 3 maybes (SIU (7-5), SELA (7-4), and N Dakota (7-4)). I'd say 7-5/5-3 SIU (assuming lost to NDSU of course) is ahead of a 7-5/5-3 Maine. Both played 2 G5, but SIU won one (yeah it was UMass). OOC SIU also lost @ playoff SEMO.

So other 9 conferences 20 spots. Think Maine maybe could get in as the 4th CAA IF they were selected ahead of 7-4 N Dakota and SELA. Vs I-AA would be Maine & SELA 7-3, ND 7-4 with a tougher schedule. All 3 would have 1 win over playoff teams (ND over MT St, SELA over UCA, Maine if Albany gets in).

I'd say Maine wins and:
-TU & Albany both lose Maine a near lock.
-TU or Albany lose, Maine maybe in.
-Neither TU or Albany lose, Maine likely out.

(11-22-2019 10:48 AM)jmu98 Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 10:45 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 10:00 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 08:31 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I still question whether Towson or Albany get in with losses this weekend. To me, those are true play-in games. If they both lose and Maine wins convincingly, I could see the three CAA teams being JMU, VU, and Maine as that would be Maine's fifth win in a row. Add that to them being the only CAA team that showed up in the playoffs last year and you may have some justification. I just don't see four CAA teams getting in this year where two of them only have seven wins, especially after how the CAA performed last year.

That being said, if the games are all chalk this weekend (when's the last time that happened), I think you see JMU, VU, Towson, and Albany with Maine needing some significant help despite being the second hottest team in the conference.

All in all, this should be a very exciting Saturday! Go Flo!

Like I said up top. TU is a must win. They lose and finish 7-5/4-4, they‘re out. Albany likely needs to win.

Wasn't disagreeing with you.

Do you think Maine is in under any scenario other than both TU and Albany losses, or do you think they are in with a win and only one of them losing... or the help they need isn't in the CAA?

I think Albany losing gives Maine a better shot as they defeated Albany and lost to Towson. So all things being equal if they and Albany are 7-5 5-3 they would get the nod. Good chance that neither gets in in that scenario.

Yeah, but Maine's only win over a potential playoff team is their win over Albany. If I was Maine and had to pick which one lost, TU or Albany, I'd be pick TU, so Maine would have a win over a playoff team. I'm thinking a quality win is more important than a quality loss.

Headscratcher for UNCW today. Lost to Cleveland State 47-46.

Good analysis BDK. Yeah you’d think with four CAA teams and assuming SIU would be ahead of Maine in any scenario:
if Maine ends up with the 5th best win total of CAA teams, they’d have to hope UND lost.

Wins over Montana State and UCA are bigger than a win over Albany.

(11-22-2019 07:56 PM)Potomac Wrote:  Good analysis BDK. Yeah you’d think with four CAA teams and assuming SIU would be ahead of Maine in any scenario:
if Maine ends up with the 5th best win total of CAA teams, they’d have to hope UND lost.

Wins over Montana State and UCA are bigger than a win over Albany.

If favorites win Sat, beating 2nd place CAA is bigger than beating 2nd place Southland or 4th place Big Sky.

(11-22-2019 05:28 PM)Anders Wrote:  Headscratcher for UNCW today. Lost to Cleveland State 47-46.

I realize this in the wrong thread now. My apologies. Looking forward to the W&M Richmond game tomorrow. Hope to see anyone tailgating there tomorrow.

(11-22-2019 09:22 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 07:56 PM)Potomac Wrote:  Good analysis BDK. Yeah you’d think with four CAA teams and assuming SIU would be ahead of Maine in any scenario:
if Maine ends up with the 5th best win total of CAA teams, they’d have to hope UND lost.

Wins over Montana State and UCA are bigger than a win over Albany.

If favorites win Sat, beating 2nd place CAA is bigger than beating 2nd place Southland or 4th place Big Sky.

Albany isn't REALLY the 2nd place CAA team though in total wins on the season. That's Villanova. I'd say Albany is the 3rd best CAA team assuming they win today.

UND won't lose to a crappy Southern Utah team. SELA has already lost but gave a good performance that may help their case. I think Maine won't make the field unless one of two things happen. UND loses (unlikely) and/or the committee decides to not let Kennesaw into the field based on their horrendous SOS (extremely unlikely).

I will say it now. Maine will be the best team to not make the field and get "hosed", assuming they win today while TU and Albany also win.

(11-23-2019 11:30 AM)Potomac Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 09:22 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-22-2019 07:56 PM)Potomac Wrote:  Good analysis BDK. Yeah you’d think with four CAA teams and assuming SIU would be ahead of Maine in any scenario:
if Maine ends up with the 5th best win total of CAA teams, they’d have to hope UND lost.

Wins over Montana State and UCA are bigger than a win over Albany.

If favorites win Sat, beating 2nd place CAA is bigger than beating 2nd place Southland or 4th place Big Sky.

Albany isn't REALLY the 2nd place CAA team though in total wins on the season. That's Villanova. I'd say Albany is the 3rd best CAA team assuming they win today.

UND won't lose to a crappy Southern Utah team. SELA has already lost but gave a good performance that may help their case. I think Maine won't make the field unless one of two things happen. UND loses (unlikely) and/or the committee decides to not let Kennesaw into the field based on their horrendous SOS (extremely unlikely).

I will say it now. Maine will be the best team to not make the field and get "hosed", assuming they win today while TU and Albany also win.

Yeah, if favorites hold serve (TU and Albany included) Maine won’t be in. But neither will UND or SELA. Maine, UND, and SELA need help.

Bubble Teams as of today.

Maine, Towson, Albany.
Furman, North Dakota, Southeastern Louisiana (already lost thursday).
Kennesaw State, South Carolina State (this is listed on some sites but I'd say not really a bubble, 3rd place MEAC). UT-Martin.

RU -WM game on TV here in RVA. Not sure why the hell it's on, might be 400-600 people in the Cracker Box.

In Men's Basketball (and many sports), the CAA rarely has an at-large candidate. We might root for mid-majors to get at-large bids in general, but the Selection Committe is much more important to CAA in Football.

(11-23-2019 11:45 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Bubble Teams as of today.

Maine, Towson, Albany.
Furman, North Dakota, Southeastern Louisiana (already lost thursday).
Kennesaw State, South Carolina State (this is listed on some sites but I'd say not really a bubble, 3rd place MEAC). UT-Martin.

Weber State, Sacramento State, Montana State, Villanova, Illinois State, South Dakota State, and Central Arkansas are 8-3 (Central Arkansas is 9-3) from good conferences. Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois are 7-4. That's 9 of 14 at-larges. If 5 of the 9 bubble teams you listed get in, the CAA will probably get at least 2. Here's information on the six non-CAA bubble teams you listed.

Furman is 7-4 with 3 of their losses at first place Wofford, FBS Georgia State by 6, and FBS Virginia Tech by 7. Their only nonconference win was against 5-6 Charleston Southern, and they haven't beaten anybody better than 6-5. They beat Chattanooga, so even if Chattanooga wins today, Furman will be second on the tiebreaker. Furman plays non-Division I Point today. The SoCon normally gets multiple bids, and that could help them get in over second place Kennesaw State from a worse conference. The SoCon is sixth among FCS conferences in the Sagarin, The Big South is eighth, but there's a big gap between seventh and eighth.

North Dakota is 6-4. Their last 5 wins were by 21 points combined. They best win is over 8-3 Montana State. They lost by 35 at 3-8 Idaho State, which is more than the 31 they lost by at NDSU.

Southeastern Louisiana is 7-4 with a 34-0 win 9-3 Central Arkansas. Loss to Ole Miss, Nicholls, and 6-5 McNeese aren't bad. They lost hosting 5-7 Incarnate Word. Other than Central Arkansas, the best record of a team they beat is 6-5 Jacksonville State.

Kennesaw State will be 10-2 if they win today, with a blowout loss hosting conference champion Monmouth and a loss at FBS Kent State. Their nonconference wins are over Alabama State (4-5 vs. Division I in the weak SWAC), Missouri State (1 win), and 2 non-Division I. Campbell is the only team they beat who could finish above .500 vs. Division I. I compared them to Monmouth last season, when they were 8-3, second behind Kennesaw State, and were one of the first four out. Monmouth had 1 FBS loss and 1 Big South loss like Kennesaw State does this year. Kennesaw State could have 2 more wins, but it would be the same amount of Division I wins as Monmouth last season who played only Division I teams.

South Carolina State is 7-3 with a non-Division I win. Even if they win today, 7-3 against Division I from the MEAC shouldn't get them in.

UT-Martin is 7-4. They lost at Florida and are at Kentucky today, so they will be 7-3 vs. FCS. They haven't beaten anybody who's better than 6-5.