We were discussing this on the rootin' chain text thread; Which would be the bigger upset?

JMU Beating Tech in Football in 2010

JMU Beating UVA in bball on Sunday.

Discuss!

beating Uva, by a mile

the gap between uva hoops and jmu hoops is much wider than that of VT and jmu football

(11-06-2019 09:24 AM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  beating Uva, by a mile

the gap between uva hoops and jmu hoops is much wider than that of VT and jmu football

I second this.

(11-06-2019 09:30 AM)JMU_71 Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 09:24 AM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  beating Uva, by a mile

the gap between uva hoops and jmu hoops is much wider than that of VT and jmu football

I second this.

Yep, easy vote. Plus, UVA is a defending national champion...note, a concept that is entirely foreign to the folks in Blacksburg.

Basketball and it's not even close IMO

IDK about this. I'd say it's close. In basketball we at least have the same number of scholarships. Football upsets are also generally harder to come by, especially FCS over P5. VT won the ACC that year and was consistently one of the top ACC teams, and we were not the program then that we are now, we weren't even an FCS playoff team that year... think about that.

I don't think UVA will be a final four team this year, so I'd go VT unless UVA makes a final four this year.

I'm not sold either way but I do think it warrants closer discussion. The difference in scholarships between FBS and FCS is a pretty big factor, not to mention it's easier for a 5 man team to have an off day than a 22 man squad.

However I do agree JMU fb was probably closer to VT fb in talent level that year, despite the difference in the rest of their season after that game.

Our basketball team is likely closer to a #300 team than a #200 team. UVA is AT WORST a top 25 team, more likely a top 10 team. The disparity is HUGE. Even with the difference in scholarships in football, to me, we were much better than the 200th team in the country that year (even at 5-6 in FCS that year).

(11-06-2019 10:17 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  Our basketball team is likely closer to a #300 team than a #200 team. UVA is AT WORST a top 25 team, more likely a top 10 team. The disparity is HUGE. Even with the difference in scholarships in football, to me, we were much better than the 200th team in the country that year (even at 5-6 in FCS that year).

Yep this was an easy question.

But Tech did end up winning the ACC that year, so it was a HUGE win as well.

The football team had an advantage of Tech coming off a national televised loss to Boise St on a short week. Stars aligned for the Dukes on that one.

It is easier to upset ranked teams in basketball. You see it happen much more frequently than in football. A hoops win against UVA would be very nice however this isn’t against last year’s team. 3 guys got drafted by the NBA. Not one, not 2, but 3 so their talent level has dropped dramatically. Bennett will keep them competitive in the ACC because he is a good coach.

I will take the Va Tech upset in football as a bigger deal as they went on to go undefeated in the ACC and play in the Orange Bowl. It still resonates 9 years later. I don’t feel like a win over UVA in hoops Sunday night will resonate that long. Beat them last year? Yeah, would have been huge. Beat them in the NCAA tourney? Yeah that would be huge.

I guess we won’t see a Vegas line until both teams play their first game tonight.

(11-06-2019 10:17 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  Our basketball team is likely closer to a #300 team than a #200 team. UVA is AT WORST a top 25 team, more likely a top 10 team. The disparity is HUGE. Even with the difference in scholarships in football, to me, we were much better than the 200th team in the country that year (even at 5-6 in FCS that year).

You're trying to compare scales that are in no way equivalent. There are only 254 D1 football schools, with less than half at 80+ scholarships. There are 347 D1 basketball schools with a large majority offering full scholarships. Basketball is a far more equal playing field than football will ever be.

Just based on roster size alone, one player can mean all the difference in being a top 50 team vs being 150+. The more players you add, the greater disparity you create between levels. Not just FCS vs FBS, but top 10 vs top 50 and so on.

Also, I'll wait to see where our team finishes this year. Sagarin puts us at #195 right now. Your view of putting us as closer to #300 this year seems pessimistic, but does explain your vote. If we finish near #300 maybe I'll agree, but rn I really hope that's not the case.

(11-06-2019 11:01 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 10:17 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  Our basketball team is likely closer to a #300 team than a #200 team. UVA is AT WORST a top 25 team, more likely a top 10 team. The disparity is HUGE. Even with the difference in scholarships in football, to me, we were much better than the 200th team in the country that year (even at 5-6 in FCS that year).

You're trying to compare scales that are in no way equivalent. There are only 254 D1 football schools, with less than half at 80+ scholarships. There are 347 D1 basketball schools with a large majority offering full scholarships. Basketball is a far more equal playing field than football will ever be.

Just based on roster size alone, one player can mean all the difference in being a top 50 team vs being 150+. The more players you add, the greater disparity you create between levels. Not just FCS vs FBS, but top 10 vs top 50 and so on.

Also, I'll wait to see where our team finishes this year. Sagarin puts us at #195 right now. Your view of putting us as closer to #300 this year seems pessimistic, but does explain your vote. If we finish near #300 maybe I'll agree, but rn I really hope that's not the case.

We were worse than #250 in both Sagarin and RPI last year, correct? If we finish above #200 this year, color me impressed. The disparity in this year's UVA basketball team and JMU's basketball team is greater, I think by a fairly wide margin, than the disparity between that Virginia Tech football team and JMU's football team.

(11-06-2019 11:17 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 11:01 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 10:17 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  Our basketball team is likely closer to a #300 team than a #200 team. UVA is AT WORST a top 25 team, more likely a top 10 team. The disparity is HUGE. Even with the difference in scholarships in football, to me, we were much better than the 200th team in the country that year (even at 5-6 in FCS that year).

You're trying to compare scales that are in no way equivalent. There are only 254 D1 football schools, with less than half at 80+ scholarships. There are 347 D1 basketball schools with a large majority offering full scholarships. Basketball is a far more equal playing field than football will ever be.

Just based on roster size alone, one player can mean all the difference in being a top 50 team vs being 150+. The more players you add, the greater disparity you create between levels. Not just FCS vs FBS, but top 10 vs top 50 and so on.

Also, I'll wait to see where our team finishes this year. Sagarin puts us at #195 right now. Your view of putting us as closer to #300 this year seems pessimistic, but does explain your vote. If we finish near #300 maybe I'll agree, but rn I really hope that's not the case.

We were worse than #250 in both Sagarin and RPI last year, correct? If we finish above #200 this year, color me impressed. The disparity in this year's UVA basketball team and JMU's basketball team is greater, I think by a fairly wide margin, than the disparity between that Virginia Tech football team and JMU's football team.

I hate that this comment can even be made.

It is easier to have 5 good basketball players that 22 football players. With the 3 point shot it is much more likely a mid-major can upset a major in basketball. However, we are talking JMU basketball and that is a whole different thing! Our football program is at a much higher level than our basketball.

(11-06-2019 11:54 AM)BSKB 24 Wrote:  It is easier to have 5 good basketball players that 22 football players. With the 3 point shot it is much more likely a mid-major can upset a major in basketball. However, we are talking JMU basketball and that is a whole different thing! Our football program is at a much higher level than our basketball.

Yeah, huge upsets are much easier in basketball. It only takes one player having a hot hand on the bad team, or a top player going cold on the good team, to make a big difference.

That's why you'll see top BB teams lose to mediocre teams just about every year, but you'll rarely see top FBS teams lose to FCS or mediocre G5 teams.

Just in the NCAAs alone, here are top 20 programs losing to mid-major programs:

2016

Middle Tenn beat 2 seed Michigan State
Stephen F Austin beat 3 seed West Virginia
Yale beat 5 seed Baylor
Little Rock beat 5 seed Purdue

2017

Middle Tenn beat 5 seed Minnesota

2018

UMBC beat 1 seed UVA
Buffalo beat 4 seed Arizona
Marshall beat 4 seed Wich St

2019

UC Irvine beat 4 seed Kans St
Liberty beat 5 seed Miss St
Murray St beat 5 seed Marquette

There's more opportunities for upsets in basketball obviously.

Just to put it in perspective, there has been exactly 1 upset, 16-1 seed in the NCAA tourney. That year, umbc was rpi 111. We are likely somewhere in the low 200s coming in to this game. This upset would be way way way bigger than the tech game. Early season basketball games get very little play, and there are so many, so it would be of much less consequence.

Anyways, dukes by 90

I can't actually come to a decision simply because one is looking a 9 yr old history old and the other choice is predicting the future.

Choosing the bigger upset between beating Clemson in 2020 bowl game or beating Michigan State in the round of 16 in 2020 would be easier.

Basketball upsets are much more common.

I lived in Hawaii when Chaminade beat #1 Virginia and Ralph Sampson in basketball. I was going to go to the game, but figured it would be a blowout by the Hoos, so I listened to it on the radio. I think it was a midday game and I listened to it on my radio on the beach. I was blown away by the UVA loss because of the talent level disparity between the teams. Chaminade was a tiny school. They didn't even have a gym. They practiced in a high school gym and the high school had scheduling priority since it was their gym. The coach washed the team's uniforms at his house. One of the biggest sports upsets of all time.

While today's JMU and UVA are a lot closer in caliber than Chaminade and UVA, for our Dukes to beat the defending champions would be YUUUUUUGE!

(11-06-2019 09:24 AM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  beating Uva, by a mile

the gap between uva hoops and jmu hoops is much wider than that of VT and jmu football

Quote:the gap between uva hoops and jmu hoops now is much wider than that of VT and jmu football in 2010.

Just adding the clarifier in bold. That 2010 VT team was Top 15, won ACC title game & were 11-2 heading into Orange Bowl. Was the 8th largest point spread upset the last 25 years in college football. If JMU upset UVA would that be in the Top 8 going back the last 25 years in basketball?

(11-06-2019 12:46 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  Anyways, dukes by 90

This should be your signature