(10-22-2019 01:08 PM)olddawg Wrote:  Just don't see any defensible way that we remain undefeated in FCS play and get dropped to 3rd. We beat Towson and we'll have knocked off #5 and #17 in the last 3 weeks. It's not like we're playing scrubs.

(10-23-2019 12:05 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  

(10-22-2019 11:00 PM)DRDukes Wrote:  The winner of NDSU v/s SDSU is going to be the #1 seed (assuming they win out). The Committee has shown, and believe, that the MVFC is the best conference in FCS and the winner of that conference will be the top seed. If JMU is undefeated at the FCS level, thus sweeping the CAA which is viewed as the 2nd best conference, then we will be the #2 seed. There is no credible way for the Committee, as biased as it has been in the past, to award the same conference the #1 and #2 seeds when there are undefeated FCS Conf. Champs. Just not going to happen.

Actually there is a very "credible way" (using air quotes, not quoting you) as the stated metric that is used is the NCAA SRS. This system considers margin of victories, strength of schedule and location of the games. As such, a close NDSU away loss to a #1/2 team, which followed 30+ wins against other top 10-15 teams could be "better" (air quotes) than a team who's two toughest opponents were at home and by smaller margins. So if they wanted to be bias, they could point to their own selection criteria as forcing their hand for a SDSU/NDSU #1/2. I mean they use a metric that currently has NDSU (2.0) well ahead of JMU (1.20). A metric that has Princeton (1.82) farther ahead of JMU (1.20) than JMU (1.20) is ahead of 4-3 Nicholls St (1.09).

While your point about the committee using SRS to screw us if they choose to is valid, and I believe possible, there are flaws above:

1) The SRS is recomputed fresh each year. It doesn't carry over, and thus the bizon will *not* get credit for "30+" wins or any ranked wins last year.

2) The SRS metric you linked above is from December 2018 and none of your numbers/rankings above apply. SRS is not publically known until at least a few weeks prior to the playoffs, and some (most?) years not published until after the committee releases the bracket. So throw out ALL of your ratings/metrics above.

None of us know with certainty how the final SRS score will look this year. We just know it is a factor the committee CAN choose to use to justify decisions, but can also ignore. If they followed it religiously, JMU would have been a 7 seed last year, and certainly seeded higher than Maine. The committee decided to weight the CAA title higher than SRS last year.

(10-22-2019 11:00 PM)DRDukes Wrote:  The winner of NDSU v/s SDSU is going to be the #1 seed (assuming they win out). The Committee has shown, and believe, that the MVFC is the best conference in FCS and the winner of that conference will be the top seed. If JMU is undefeated at the FCS level, thus sweeping the CAA which is viewed as the 2nd best conference, then we will be the #2 seed. There is no credible way for the Committee, as biased as it has been in the past, to award the same conference the #1 and #2 seeds when there are undefeated FCS Conf. Champs. Just not going to happen.

The question really becomes who is #3 and #4. The winner of Sac State v. Weber State game is playing for one of the final top 4 seeds (assuming they also win out)

If the NDSU v. SDSU game is close, I can see the committee slating the losing team into either the 3rd or 4th seed, but then they have a tough choice.

Do they put SDSU/NDSU loser in the 3rd seed? That would mean they would leapfrog the FCS undefeated Big Sky Champion but would set up potential CAA v. MVFC and MVFC vs. Big Sky Semi-Finals. If they put the Big Sky Champ in as the 3rd seed, then they'd be looking at a potential rematch of SDSU v. NDSU in a #1 vs #4 semi final. I would guess they would not want to see those two teams play again unless it is in Frisco.

if we win out and SDSU takes care of business on Saturday, I see the Bison heading the 'burg as the #3 seed on December 21st with a ticket to Frisco at stake. The Committee has seen that as long as one of us is in Frisco, they will sell it out, so I don't think they hesitate to put us on the same side of the bracket this year.

I'd say the CAA is 3rd this year and since teams continue to beat up on each other, there is a very real possibility the CAA only gets 3 teams in this year. Couple that with how there were 6 CAA teams that made the field last year and all but maine under performed, we may see an over correction by the committee

I'll be honest, I kinda forgot about the big sky teams with all the talk of JMU/NDSU/SDSU. If Sac st wins out I can see them being the 3 and the NDSU/SDSU game determine taking the 1/4 seeds with JMU being 2. The committee has shown they have no issue putting those two on the same sides of the bracket. If Weber wins out, I think they get the 4 seed and NDSU/SDSU takes the 1/3

Bottom line lets just win out the rest of the season and figure it out in november, still have some tough games ahead

(10-23-2019 05:56 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  While your point about the committee using SRS to screw us if they choose to is valid, and I believe possible, there are flaws above:

1) The SRS is recomputed fresh each year. It doesn't carry over, and thus the bizon will *not* get credit for "30+" wins or any ranked wins last year.

2) The SRS metric you linked above is from December 2018 and none of your numbers/rankings above apply. SRS is not publically known until at least a few weeks prior to the playoffs, and some (most?) years not published until after the committee releases the bracket. So throw out ALL of your ratings/metrics above.

None of us know with certainty how the final SRS score will look this year. We just know it is a factor the committee CAN choose to use to justify decisions, but can also ignore. If they followed it religiously, JMU would have been a 7 seed last year, and certainly seeded higher than Maine. The committee decided to weight the CAA title higher than SRS last year.

1 - I'm talking about their 34 point win against current #7/11 Ill. St. a few weeks ago followed by their 32 point win against #12/14 Northern Iowa two weeks ago. If JMU wins out the best wins are 14 points over #6/7 Nova and whatever the margin is against #17/18 Towson, both at home. NDSU would also feature away victories at Delaware and YSU. So if NDSU wins all those by 3+ TDs, I could see how a computer calc might tip to their favor if the only lose is to SDSU by a couple points.

2 - Makes a lot more sense that it was from last year. I had very little faith in it after looking at just JMU and NDSU.

(10-23-2019 07:35 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 05:56 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  While your point about the committee using SRS to screw us if they choose to is valid, and I believe possible, there are flaws above:

1) The SRS is recomputed fresh each year. It doesn't carry over, and thus the bizon will *not* get credit for "30+" wins or any ranked wins last year.

2) The SRS metric you linked above is from December 2018 and none of your numbers/rankings above apply. SRS is not publically known until at least a few weeks prior to the playoffs, and some (most?) years not published until after the committee releases the bracket. So throw out ALL of your ratings/metrics above.

None of us know with certainty how the final SRS score will look this year. We just know it is a factor the committee CAN choose to use to justify decisions, but can also ignore. If they followed it religiously, JMU would have been a 7 seed last year, and certainly seeded higher than Maine. The committee decided to weight the CAA title higher than SRS last year.

1 - I'm talking about their 34 point win against current #7/11 Ill. St. a few weeks ago followed by their 32 point win against #12/14 Northern Iowa two weeks ago. If JMU wins out the best wins are 14 points over #6/7 Nova and whatever the margin is against #17/18 Towson, both at home. NDSU would also feature away victories at Delaware and YSU. So if NDSU wins all those by 3+ TDs, I could see how a computer calc might tip to their favor if the only lose is to SDSU by a couple points.

2 - Makes a lot more sense that it was from last year. I had very little faith in it after looking at just JMU and NDSU.

On #1, FWIW, the SRS caps margin of victory at 21 points. Bigger victories might possibly impress the committee, but not the computer.

Let's hope it doesn't come down to this, JMU wins out and common sense prevails with us getting a top 2 slot. But IF the committee chooses to screw us, this is the mechanism they would likely use to justify it.

(10-23-2019 09:25 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 07:35 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 05:56 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  While your point about the committee using SRS to screw us if they choose to is valid, and I believe possible, there are flaws above:

1) The SRS is recomputed fresh each year. It doesn't carry over, and thus the bizon will *not* get credit for "30+" wins or any ranked wins last year.

2) The SRS metric you linked above is from December 2018 and none of your numbers/rankings above apply. SRS is not publically known until at least a few weeks prior to the playoffs, and some (most?) years not published until after the committee releases the bracket. So throw out ALL of your ratings/metrics above.

None of us know with certainty how the final SRS score will look this year. We just know it is a factor the committee CAN choose to use to justify decisions, but can also ignore. If they followed it religiously, JMU would have been a 7 seed last year, and certainly seeded higher than Maine. The committee decided to weight the CAA title higher than SRS last year.

1 - I'm talking about their 34 point win against current #7/11 Ill. St. a few weeks ago followed by their 32 point win against #12/14 Northern Iowa two weeks ago. If JMU wins out the best wins are 14 points over #6/7 Nova and whatever the margin is against #17/18 Towson, both at home. NDSU would also feature away victories at Delaware and YSU. So if NDSU wins all those by 3+ TDs, I could see how a computer calc might tip to their favor if the only lose is to SDSU by a couple points.

2 - Makes a lot more sense that it was from last year. I had very little faith in it after looking at just JMU and NDSU.

On #1, FWIW, the SRS caps margin of victory at 21 points. Bigger victories might possibly impress the committee, but not the computer.

Let's hope it doesn't come down to this, JMU wins out and common sense prevails with us getting a top 2 slot. But IF the committee chooses to screw us, this is the mechanism they would likely use to justify it.

The committee can and will screw a team if they have a mind to do so. They just use these tools as props they can point to in order to justify the screwing.

Regardless of rankings and data points, here are the 10 committee members who will be voting this year. In the end, their opinion/votes are all that really matter:

Chairman: Greg Seitz - OVC, JSU AD
Kyle Moats - MVC, MSU AD
Thorr Bjorn - CAA, URI AD
Kent Haslam - Big Sky, Montana AD
Randy Eaton - SoCon, WCU AD
Eugene Marshall, Jr - Big South, Hampton AD
Bruce Hemphill - SLC, McNeese State AD
Jermaine Truax - Patriot, Bucknell AD
Tim Murray - Pioneer, Marist AD
Bill Smith - NEC, Bryant AD

Let’s hope they use wisdom over politics when voting.

(10-23-2019 10:09 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  Regardless of rankings and data points, here are the 10 committee members who will be voting this year. In the end, their opinion/votes are all that really matter:

Chairman: Greg Seitz - OVC, JSU AD
Kyle Moats - MVC, MSU AD
Thorr Bjorn - CAA, URI AD

Kent Haslam - Big Sky, Montana AD
Randy Eaton - SoCon, WCU AD
Eugene Marshall, Jr - Big South, Hampton AD
Bruce Hemphill - SLC, McNeese State AD
Jermaine Truax - Patriot, Bucknell AD
Tim Murray - Pioneer, Marist AD
Bill Smith - NEC, Bryant AD

Let’s hope they use wisdom over politics when voting.

Better not rub it in too much against Rhode Island in the season finale. Don't want to piss off a potential ally. Get an early, insurmountable lead and then take the foot off the gas.

(10-23-2019 10:44 AM)olddawg Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 10:09 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  Regardless of rankings and data points, here are the 10 committee members who will be voting this year. In the end, their opinion/votes are all that really matter:

Chairman: Greg Seitz - OVC, JSU AD
Kyle Moats - MVC, MSU AD
Thorr Bjorn - CAA, URI AD

Kent Haslam - Big Sky, Montana AD
Randy Eaton - SoCon, WCU AD
Eugene Marshall, Jr - Big South, Hampton AD
Bruce Hemphill - SLC, McNeese State AD
Jermaine Truax - Patriot, Bucknell AD
Tim Murray - Pioneer, Marist AD
Bill Smith - NEC, Bryant AD

Let’s hope they use wisdom over politics when voting.

Better not rub it in too much against Rhode Island in the season finale. Don't want to piss off a potential ally. Get an early, insurmountable lead and then take the foot off the gas.

Or we blow them out and leave absolutely no doubt how good we are.
To be serious, Cignetti isn't the kind of guy that would blow out an opponent to just be a jerk. He would obviously have his sights on the playoffs and no reason to keep the guys out there any more than they need to be.

Regardless of whether we should blow them out or go easy on them, can we all agree Thorr Bjorn is a great name?

(10-23-2019 11:54 AM)AssyrianDuke Wrote:  Regardless of whether we should blow them out or go easy on them, can we all agree Thorr Bjorn is a great name?

I love Thorr Bjorn!!! He is most surely a respectable guy who cares deeply for his friends and his family.

(10-23-2019 11:54 AM)AssyrianDuke Wrote:  Regardless of whether we should blow them out or go easy on them, can we all agree Thorr Bjorn is a great name?

As long as he looks like a Thorr and not like this, because then it would be a terrible name.

(10-23-2019 05:14 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Ugh oh! For something that is a zero, no chance in hell, JMU sports blog admitted the possibility that an FCS undefeated JMU could end up as a 3 seed behind NDSU.

Those guys must not know what they’re talking about...

They apparently don't.

The I-AA started the playoffs in 1978. 1981 1st started seeding teams. So in the 38 seasons 1981-2018, guess how many times the committee has seeded #1 and #2 from the same conference: ZERO.

And before someone says 1989 with GSU #1 & Furman #2, GSU wasn't in the So-Con back then, they were independent..

BDK's sarcasm sensor malfunctioned.

(10-23-2019 01:22 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  BDK's sarcasm sensor malfunctioned.

He has one?

(10-23-2019 12:39 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 05:14 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Ugh oh! For something that is a zero, no chance in hell, JMU sports blog admitted the possibility that an FCS undefeated JMU could end up as a 3 seed behind NDSU.

Those guys must not know what they’re talking about...

They apparently don't.

The I-AA started the playoffs in 1978. 1981 1st started seeding teams. So in the 38 seasons 1981-2018, guess how many times the committee has seeded #1 and #2 from the same conference: ZERO.

And before someone says 1989 with GSU #1 & Furman #2, GSU wasn't in the So-Con back then, they were independent..

I had big money that someone would not have mentioned it, I wish you hadn't have ruined the bet.

But seriously, how many times has a conference had two teams ranked in the top 3 (or even top 4) at the end of the season, including one team as #1? If that is zero, then obviously the above is zero.

(10-23-2019 01:23 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 01:22 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  BDK's sarcasm sensor malfunctioned.

He has one?

Potomac & a couple others have been harping on the possibility that JMU could win out and end up #3 if SDSU beat NDSU. I was pointing out #1 & #2 from the same conference hasn't ever happened before. Haven't even seen the blog.

(10-23-2019 01:28 PM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 12:39 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 05:14 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Ugh oh! For something that is a zero, no chance in hell, JMU sports blog admitted the possibility that an FCS undefeated JMU could end up as a 3 seed behind NDSU.

Those guys must not know what they’re talking about...

They apparently don't.

The I-AA started the playoffs in 1978. 1981 1st started seeding teams. So in the 38 seasons 1981-2018, guess how many times the committee has seeded #1 and #2 from the same conference: ZERO.

And before someone says 1989 with GSU #1 & Furman #2, GSU wasn't in the So-Con back then, they were independent..

I had big money that someone would not have mentioned it, I wish you hadn't have ruined the bet.

But seriously, how many times has a conference had two teams ranked in the top 3 (or even top 4) at the end of the season, including one team as #1? If that is zero, then obviously the above is zero.

No good place I know of to look up end of the regular season polls going back a few decades. But the committee doesn't seed the teams according to the polls (ex 2016 SHSU #1 in the polls, got the #5 seed).

I have zero concern with the MVFC getting the #1 and #2 seeds.

(10-23-2019 12:39 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 05:14 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Ugh oh! For something that is a zero, no chance in hell, JMU sports blog admitted the possibility that an FCS undefeated JMU could end up as a 3 seed behind NDSU.

Those guys must not know what they’re talking about...

They apparently don't.

The I-AA started the playoffs in 1978. 1981 1st started seeding teams. So in the 38 seasons 1981-2018, guess how many times the committee has seeded #1 and #2 from the same conference: ZERO.

And before someone says 1989 with GSU #1 & Furman #2, GSU wasn't in the So-Con back then, they were independent..

Wait a minute! The first thought that is crossing my mind is 30 years ago back in 1989...when GSU and Furman were in the same conference and finished 1 and 2. I bet you didn't think about that now did you?

Actually now that I think about it maybe they GSU wasn't in the SoCon yet. Were they independent 30 years ago? I can't remember since I wasn't even in school yet.

(10-23-2019 01:34 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 01:23 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 01:22 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  BDK's sarcasm sensor malfunctioned.

He has one?

Potomac & a couple others have been harping on the possibility that JMU could win out and end up #3 if SDSU beat NDSU. I was pointing out #1 & #2 from the same conference hasn't ever happened before. Haven't even seen the blog.

While I'm generally with you on this, there is always a first time for anything. No team had ever come from behind in a best of seven down 3-0 before it happened and that was with a lot more years and series behind it to 'prove' that it never happened.

(10-23-2019 01:48 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 01:28 PM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 12:39 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(10-23-2019 05:14 AM)Potomac Wrote:  Ugh oh! For something that is a zero, no chance in hell, JMU sports blog admitted the possibility that an FCS undefeated JMU could end up as a 3 seed behind NDSU.

Those guys must not know what they’re talking about...

They apparently don't.

The I-AA started the playoffs in 1978. 1981 1st started seeding teams. So in the 38 seasons 1981-2018, guess how many times the committee has seeded #1 and #2 from the same conference: ZERO.

And before someone says 1989 with GSU #1 & Furman #2, GSU wasn't in the So-Con back then, they were independent..

I had big money that someone would not have mentioned it, I wish you hadn't have ruined the bet.

But seriously, how many times has a conference had two teams ranked in the top 3 (or even top 4) at the end of the season, including one team as #1? If that is zero, then obviously the above is zero.

No good place I know of to look up end of the regular season polls going back a few decades. But the committee doesn't seed the teams according to the polls (ex 2016 SHSU #1 in the polls, got the #5 seed).

I have zero concern with the MVFC getting the #1 and #2 seeds.

I don't care about the actual ranking, I care if two teams in the same conference have ever been considered the best team and the #2 or #3 team in the nation, which would be evidenced by polls or computer rankings or whatever source you found.

I don't think it has ever been clear cut that the same conference had two teams that were clearly number 1/2 but I could be wrong. As such, you saying that #1/2 from same conference would never happen, is based on a fallacy as the opportunity has never presented itself. You are saying JMU would never beat VT at home because they have never had the chance to play VT at home.