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The cheating from 2002 aside, remember when we went to the 2014 Hawaii Bowl and about 100 people showed up. I realize a big part of that was TT malaise, but honestly, how many fans do we have that have the scratch, the time and the ability to plan a trip to Hawaii around Christmas on a few weeks notice? Maybe we'd bring 1,000 fans at best?

However, after we already clinched a BCS bid in 2008 we went to Hawaii for an extra game. Pike was awful and UC was down 14 late. The defense came up huge and Dustin Grutza got his moment after the horrible injury derailed his season against Oklahoma.

(10-16-2019 08:09 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  The cheating from 2002 aside, remember when we went to the 2014 Hawaii Bowl and about 100 people showed up. I realize a big part of that was TT malaise, but honestly, how many fans do we have that have the scratch, the time and the ability to plan a trip to Hawaii around Christmas on a few weeks notice? Maybe we'd bring 1,000 fans at best?

I have no issue with planning that trip around Christmas, as a Hawaii holiday sounds amazing. No chance I can finagle a Hawaii trip into the budget.

(10-16-2019 08:20 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  However, after we already clinched a BCS bid in 2008 we went to Hawaii for an extra game. Pike was awful and UC was down 14 late. The defense came up huge and Dustin Grutza got his moment after the horrible injury derailed his season against Oklahoma.

I remember watching that game. IIRC it started at midnight (EST) and didn't get over until nearly 4am. Talk about brutal.

(10-16-2019 08:37 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 08:20 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  However, after we already clinched a BCS bid in 2008 we went to Hawaii for an extra game. Pike was awful and UC was down 14 late. The defense came up huge and Dustin Grutza got his moment after the horrible injury derailed his season against Oklahoma.

I remember watching that game. IIRC it started at midnight (EST) and didn't get over until nearly 4am. Talk about brutal.

If we never play HA @ HA it will be too soon. I remember the brawl in an earlier game where an HA player came out swinging crutches.

(10-16-2019 08:37 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 08:20 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  However, after we already clinched a BCS bid in 2008 we went to Hawaii for an extra game. Pike was awful and UC was down 14 late. The defense came up huge and Dustin Grutza got his moment after the horrible injury derailed his season against Oklahoma.

I remember watching that game. IIRC it started at midnight (EST) and didn't get over until nearly 4am. Talk about brutal.

Why in the hell did we end the season with that game? Vacation?

(10-16-2019 12:01 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 08:37 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 08:20 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  However, after we already clinched a BCS bid in 2008 we went to Hawaii for an extra game. Pike was awful and UC was down 14 late. The defense came up huge and Dustin Grutza got his moment after the horrible injury derailed his season against Oklahoma.

I remember watching that game. IIRC it started at midnight (EST) and didn't get over until nearly 4am. Talk about brutal.

Why in the hell did we end the season with that game? Vacation?

Free trip to Hawaii for the players

(10-16-2019 12:28 PM)cpawstoney Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 12:01 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 08:37 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 08:20 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  However, after we already clinched a BCS bid in 2008 we went to Hawaii for an extra game. Pike was awful and UC was down 14 late. The defense came up huge and Dustin Grutza got his moment after the horrible injury derailed his season against Oklahoma.

I remember watching that game. IIRC it started at midnight (EST) and didn't get over until nearly 4am. Talk about brutal.

Why in the hell did we end the season with that game? Vacation?

Free trip to Hawaii for the players

That’s the only good thing about it, the players getting to visit Hawaii as a team.

A couple of observations...

20 Minnesota [6-0]
Rutgers [1-5] +28.5

Minnesota has the most tin foil strength of schedule of any team ranked outside of Boyzee St. Here's who they've beaten: South Dakota St by 7 points; @ [2-3] Fresno St by 3 in double OT; [2-3] Georgia Southern by 3; @ [2-4] Purdue by 7; [2-4] Illinois by 23; and [4-3] Nebraska by 27. Now they get [1-5] Buttgers but they still have to play Penn St, @ Iowa and Wisky. The Golden Gomers better make double the sacrifices to the scheduling gods for getting an easy front loaded slate of games.

18 Baylor [6-0]
Oklahoma St [4-2] -3.5

Is it odd that a ranked, undefeated Baylor is an underdog to Okie St? I realize it's on the road but where is the respect for Baylor's #18 ranking then? Vegas betting aside, this tells me Baylor shouldn't be ranked #18 but for the 6-0 record. See Minnesota above.

East Carolina [3-3]
UCF [4-2] -33
I don't know if 33 points is enough for a pissed off UCF team coming off a bye week. Hide the women and children from this one.

14 Boise State [6-0]
BYU [2-4] +6.5

I'll keep an eye on this one. Could be a close one for Boyzee in BYU's backyard.

(10-14-2019 08:39 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  

(10-14-2019 06:15 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 10:15 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(10-13-2019 07:00 PM)eroc Wrote:  i'm starting it way early. Obviously job one is to get the W against Tulsa but some games to keep an eye on:

#7 psu vs. #16 michigan
#13 Utah vs. #17 ASU
#14 Boise vs. BYU
#18 Baylor vs. Ok. State
#19 SMU vs. Temple

i'm assuming that we want Temple to win since it would be better for Cincy and we don't play the Ponies but is there a scenario where it's better for SMU to win?

I would think the opposite. We control our destiny in the East, so Temple winning or losing doesnt matter, but if an undefeated Tulane or SMU are the AAC West representative in the Championship Game it would likely be a Top 15 matchup (Should UC or Templewin out to that point), which could only do positive for whoever wins when comparing to Boise State.

Doesn’t matter, Boise needs to lose and maybe so does Appalachian State. Cats have currently one win over a winning team. Next one on the schedule is Temple. UC’s non conference wins are agianst 1 win UCLA, 2 win Miami Oh, and 3-3 Marshall. Basically UC’s best argument is they killed Marshall and Boise struggled. The next four games for UC do nothing for the resume.

Appalachian State wins out then they would have road wins at UNC and South Carolina.

Cats need to take of business and hope the other teams lose. Maybe the back end of the schedule is strong enough to impress the committee but i doubt it is enough to overtake an undefeated team.

ESPN SOS: Cincinnati**: 21, Boise 98, App State 107
Sagarin SOS: Cincinnati 34, Boise 87, App State 126
Team Rankings SOS : Cincinnati 15, Boise 73, App State 72
Massey SOS: Cincinnati 11, Boise 77, App State 101

There's a trend. But in the end, none of this matters until the committee release their rankings.. I have a feeling we could be within roughly four spots of Boise and our remaining SOS, particularly the final 3 games, could be enough to jump Boise's pathetic schedule.

**Note in the ESPN Playoff Picture, Cincinnati is the ONLY 1 loss G5 school included... there's a reason for that.

Is This Year the Best Bearcats Team in History?
Boise’s star QB, Hank Bachmeier, is probably out with a hip pointer.

For AAC games I have a simple formula: the best team will win all remaining games.
That would give the Bearcats their first AAC championship, and best promote UC
To the New Years Six. Bearcats are the best team in the AAC.

Sports-reference.com has both the Bearcats with the best SRS (simple rating system) and strongest SOS (strength of schedule) in Bearcat History. It means that this team is (so far)
The Best Bearcat team in history:

Simple Rating System
Year Conf Record SRS AP Polls Coach
1 2019 AAC 5 - 1 16.4 21 Luke Fickell (5-1)

2 2009 Big East 12 - 1 14.23 4 8 Brian Kelly (12-0), Jeff Quinn (0-1) Sugar Bowl-L

3 2007 Big East 11 - 3 13.40 15 17 Brian Kelly (10-3) PapaJohns.com Bowl-W

4 2012 Big East 10 - 3 8.71 21 Butch Jones (9-3) Steve Stripling (1-0) Belk Bowl-W

5 1976 Ind 8 - 3 8.04 20 Tony Mason (8-3)

6 2011 Big East 10 - 3 7.34 23 25 Butch Jones (10-3) Liberty Bowl-W

7 2018 AAC 11 2 7.15 19 24 Luke Fickell (11-2) Military Bowl-W

8 1995 Ind 6 5 6.92 Rick Minter (6-5)

9 2008 Big East 11 3 6.03 12 17 Brian Kelly (11-3) Orange Bowl-L

10 1964 MVC 8 2 5.91 Chuck Studley (8-2)

Bearcats Strongest Strength of Schedule

Year Conf Record SOS
1 2019 AAC 5 1 6.64 21 Luke Fickell (5-1)

2 1979 Ind 2 9 3.76 Ralph Staub (2-9)

3 2006 Big East 8 5 3.29 Mark Dantonio (7-5), Brian Kelly (1-0) International Bowl-W

4 1983 Ind 4-6-1 3.29 Watson Brown (4-6-1)

5 1995 Ind 6 - 5 3.01 Rick Minter (6-5)

6 2010 Big East 4 - 8 1.99 Butch Jones (4-8)

7 1986 Ind 5 - 6 1.92 Dave Currey (5-6)

8 1981 Ind 6 - 5 1.91 Mike Gottfried (6-5)

9 2009 Big East 12 - 1 1.77 4 8 Brian Kelly (12-0), Jeff Quinn (0-1) Sugar Bowl-L

10 1984 Ind 2 - 9 1.46 Dave Currey (2-9)

Boise State currently has a SRS of 14.66 and a SOS of -1.17.
Boise’s star QB, Hank Bachmeier, is probably out with a hip pointer for the game at BYU.
Other current AAC SRS are SMU 14.72, Navy 13.24, UCF 12.04, Memphis 11.73,
Tulane 9.24, and Temple 4.95.
None of these AAC teams have positive SOS’s.

I do completely appreciate the fact that this team has the team metrics up there with the best we've ever had...I wonder how much of the SOS being so high is attributed to the game we didn't show up for earlier this year. If you remove the 42-0 drubbing in Columbus, what's our SOS then?

^^ A hypothetical matchup of say the 2009 team vs. the 2019 team would be interesting to watch. On one hand, I think the 2019 team would be vulnerable against the 2009 with respects to the deep ball, as they showed last week against Houston. OTOH, I think the 2019 team could score at will as well. Mike Warren would have a big game. Probably would be a lot like the 2009 game against UConn that ended 47-45.

(10-17-2019 08:33 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  ^^ A hypothetical matchup of say the 2009 team vs. the 2019 team would be interesting to watch. On one hand, I think the 2019 team would be vulnerable against the 2009 with respects to the deep ball, as they showed last week against Houston. OTOH, I think the 2019 team could score at will as well. Mike Warren would have a big game. Probably would be a lot like the 2009 game against UConn that ended 47-45.

IMHO, the 2019 would get crushed. CRUSHED!

Warren would have a big game??? Take out the one long run each against Miami (73) and UCF (60), and Warren has had a terrible year, i.e. 99 carries for 350 yds.

Don't let the final game - err! appearance of guys in Bearcat uniforms - against Florida fool you. The 2009 team was very, very good.

2009 was a top 5-10 caliber team. This team isn't in their league. No knock on this team.

(10-17-2019 08:53 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  2009 was a top 5-10 caliber team. This team isn't in their league. No knock on this team.

I completely agree with that but we're also 10 years down the road and guys are bigger, faster, stronger than they were 10 years ago. That team was much better relative to their competition but the evolution over the last 10 years to me evens out the difference between a clear top 10 team vs. this year's 20-35 caliber team. To me the difference would be that in a close game this team does not have anything near a Pike/Collaros to stretch the field and Pead was more explosive in the run game than Truck. I've got 2009 making a play late to win because playmakers win the close games.

(10-17-2019 08:44 AM)Romell Shorter Wrote:  

(10-17-2019 08:33 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  ^^ A hypothetical matchup of say the 2009 team vs. the 2019 team would be interesting to watch. On one hand, I think the 2019 team would be vulnerable against the 2009 with respects to the deep ball, as they showed last week against Houston. OTOH, I think the 2019 team could score at will as well. Mike Warren would have a big game. Probably would be a lot like the 2009 game against UConn that ended 47-45.

IMHO, the 2019 would get crushed. CRUSHED!

Warren would have a big game??? Take out the one long run each against Miami (73) and UCF (60), and Warren has had a terrible year, i.e. 99 carries for 350 yds.

Don't let the final game - err! appearance of guys in Bearcat uniforms - against Florida fool you. The 2009 team was very, very good.

A: You can't just remove a guy's best plays and say he's having a terrible year. Doesn't work that way.

B: 2009's defense wasn't the greatest (I'm sure someone like BearcatMark has computer numbers) and it would be a shootout. I do give the nod to the 2009 team though. That offense operated like a Rolex.

(10-17-2019 09:06 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  

(10-17-2019 08:53 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  2009 was a top 5-10 caliber team. This team isn't in their league. No knock on this team.

I completely agree with that but we're also 10 years down the road and guys are bigger, faster, stronger than they were 10 years ago. That team was much better relative to their competition but the evolution over the last 10 years to me evens out the difference between a clear top 10 team vs. this year's 20-35 caliber team. To me the difference would be that in a close game this team does not have anything near a Pike/Collaros to stretch the field and Pead was more explosive in the run game than Truck. I've got 2009 making a play late to win because playmakers win the close games.

This. I would add, you guys are forgetting that Isaiah Pead was still getting limited touches in 2009. Part of this was design and part of this was because he was splitting reps with Jacob Ramsey. He had 121 carries over the 13 game season, less than 10 a game.

The 2009 team is my all-time favorite Bearcat team, but looking back teams were able to successfully run on them-- Fresno State (290 yards); USF (168 yards); UConn (201 yards); WVU (202 yards); Pitt (193 yards)-- heck even Louisville and Illinois, who were both mediocre that year, were able to find success on the ground. Again the 2009 team is one of my favs-- but our D that year wasn't exactly stifling. It was more of the bend, don't break variety, and for that reason I am saying Warren would find success. And before you start talking about quality of opponent, Fresno State hung in tough with us at Nippert until a Craig Carey INT sealed the deal for us.

No one can say for sure what would happen without being able to put the two teams on the field, but I think the 2009 team would be about a 2 touchdown favorite.

(10-17-2019 09:08 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  A: You can't just remove a guy's best plays and say he's having a terrible year. Doesn't work that way.

Fair enough.

2% (rounding up) of the time, Warren has been outstanding.
98% of the time he has been terrible.

Does that make you feel better?

He had 20 TDs last year. He has 6 so far this year! And that's with McClelland/Doaks/Thomas not doing much this year.

If it were not for the injuries and the woes of the Offensive Line, Warren would be considered the biggest disappointment on the team this year, if not because he was expected to be even better than last year's outstanding performance.

p.s. The 2009 had a BUNCH of difference makers on Defense.

(10-17-2019 09:30 AM)Romell Shorter Wrote:  

(10-17-2019 09:08 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  A: You can't just remove a guy's best plays and say he's having a terrible year. Doesn't work that way.

Fair enough.

2% (rounding up) of the time, Warren has been outstanding.
98% of the time he has been terrible.

Does that make you feel better?

He had 20 TDs last year. He has 6 so far this year! And that's with McClelland/Doaks/Thomas not doing much this year.

If it were not for the injuries and the woes of the Offensive Line, Warren would be considered the biggest disappointment on the team this year, if not because he was expected to be even better than last year's outstanding performance.

p.s. The 2009 had a BUNCH of difference makers on Defense.

But you see 20 TDs was a single season record for Cincinnati (beating the old record held by David Small by 3 TDS). He's on pace for 12 this year which would still be 5TH ALL TIME tied with none other than Pead. If having a season where you're 5th in single season touchdowns is 'terrible', then damn I want to be terrible. Do you really expect him to replicate a 20 TD year? And do you not think the inexperience on the offensive line is part of the reason his YPC is down this year?

I do feel great knowing Truck is a monster and teams gameplan specifically for him.