(08-20-2019 03:05 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(08-20-2019 02:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-20-2019 01:45 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(08-20-2019 01:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-20-2019 01:13 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Probability is irrelevant. The key is that if Rutgers DID go undefeated, they would be in the CFP. No G5 team has that assurance.

Probability is not irrelevant. Rutgers has a theoretical shot at the playoff because of their schedule, but they have no actual shot at the playoff because of their schedule. Two-thirds of P5 teams have less of a chance of being in the CFP playoff than you or I have of becoming a millionaire this week after buying a Powerball ticket. The theoretical chance at the playoff is of no value to Rutgers or any of those other teams.

The point is going WAY over your head. Rutgers, like any other P5 team, regardless of where they are ranked to begin the season, has a shot at the CFP, no matter how remote. No G5 has that same possibility.

You're not disputing my point that this theoretical shot is of no value to Rutgers, Oregon State, North Carolina, Kansas, etc., etc.

In 2007 this same Kansas team that you say has no chance was 11-0 and #2 in the country. So by taking care of business they were in position to make the BCS Championship simply by being in a P5 league. You can’t convince me if Kansas took care of business in 2019 and went undefeated they wouldn’t be in the top 4. Can you publish your full list of the 2/3 of P5 teams that have 0% chance or making the playoff?

Except the 2007 Kansas team isn't the same as 2019 Kansas team. Different coaches, different players, different schedule, different starting point.

(08-20-2019 03:49 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(08-20-2019 03:05 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(08-20-2019 02:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-20-2019 01:45 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(08-20-2019 01:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Probability is not irrelevant. Rutgers has a theoretical shot at the playoff because of their schedule, but they have no actual shot at the playoff because of their schedule. Two-thirds of P5 teams have less of a chance of being in the CFP playoff than you or I have of becoming a millionaire this week after buying a Powerball ticket. The theoretical chance at the playoff is of no value to Rutgers or any of those other teams.

The point is going WAY over your head. Rutgers, like any other P5 team, regardless of where they are ranked to begin the season, has a shot at the CFP, no matter how remote. No G5 has that same possibility.

You're not disputing my point that this theoretical shot is of no value to Rutgers, Oregon State, North Carolina, Kansas, etc., etc.

In 2007 this same Kansas team that you say has no chance was 11-0 and #2 in the country. So by taking care of business they were in position to make the BCS Championship simply by being in a P5 league. You can’t convince me if Kansas took care of business in 2019 and went undefeated they wouldn’t be in the top 4. Can you publish your full list of the 2/3 of P5 teams that have 0% chance or making the playoff?

Except the 2007 Kansas team isn't the same as 2019 Kansas team. Different coaches, different players, different schedule, different starting point.

I know that. I’m simply making an argument that any P5 team could run through their conference (even if it’s out of nowhere) and make the playoffs. Kansas wasn’t in the 2007 preseason Top 25 but managed to climb to 11-0 and be #2 in the country before falling to #3 Missouri. I’m not making the argument Kansas will run the conference in 2019, but rather if Kansas (or any similar P5) were to run through their conference undefeated this year, they’d be included in the CFP.

(08-20-2019 04:10 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  I know that. I’m simply making an argument that any P5 team could run through their conference (even if it’s out of nowhere) and make the playoffs. Kansas wasn’t in the 2007 preseason Top 25 but managed to climb to 11-0 and be #2 in the country before falling to #3 Missouri. I’m not making the argument Kansas will run the conference in 2019, but rather if Kansas (or any similar P5) were to run through their conference undefeated this year, they’d be included in the CFP.

That's very true. It's hard to imagine any P5 team going undefeated and not making the playoffs, even if they initially start out unranked. They will quickly rise through the rankings, all of them, AP, CFP, etc.

We just don't see it often because let's face it, it's usually not hard to predict who is going to have a good season.

Is it possible that Vanderbilt could go unbeaten? Or Wake Forest? Or Purdue? Sure, and if they do they will make the playoffs. But it's much more likely that Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State will. And since everyone knows this, those are the teams that start out highly ranked.

(08-20-2019 04:10 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(08-20-2019 03:49 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(08-20-2019 03:05 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(08-20-2019 02:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-20-2019 01:45 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  The point is going WAY over your head. Rutgers, like any other P5 team, regardless of where they are ranked to begin the season, has a shot at the CFP, no matter how remote. No G5 has that same possibility.

You're not disputing my point that this theoretical shot is of no value to Rutgers, Oregon State, North Carolina, Kansas, etc., etc.

In 2007 this same Kansas team that you say has no chance was 11-0 and #2 in the country. So by taking care of business they were in position to make the BCS Championship simply by being in a P5 league. You can’t convince me if Kansas took care of business in 2019 and went undefeated they wouldn’t be in the top 4. Can you publish your full list of the 2/3 of P5 teams that have 0% chance or making the playoff?

Except the 2007 Kansas team isn't the same as 2019 Kansas team. Different coaches, different players, different schedule, different starting point.

I know that. I’m simply making an argument that any P5 team could run through their conference (even if it’s out of nowhere) and make the playoffs. Kansas wasn’t in the 2007 preseason Top 25 but managed to climb to 11-0 and be #2 in the country before falling to #3 Missouri. I’m not making the argument Kansas will run the conference in 2019, but rather if Kansas (or any similar P5) were to run through their conference undefeated this year, they’d be included in the CFP.

If 2019 Kansas does run the table they'll deserve to be included in the CFP. In the process they will have beat quite a few pretty good teams in the process, and in one case beat a pretty good team twice.