It's probably as good of a time as any to look ahead to the 2020 season. We do lose a lot of seniors and juniors who will get drafted, but primarily we're talking about pitchers.

Pitching-wise, it will be important for the new JUCO pitchers to be able to come in and make an immediate contribution as a weekend starter, or perhaps the closer spot. Bordwine and Wood towards the end of the season were making strides. But outside of those two, we're not returning much from the staff that we can expect contributions from at this moment - maybe they make strides between now and next season. And then do we get back a healthy Moss and even Esquivel (or is he gone regardless) or Garcia? I suppose new freshmen pitchers could help out - just wait and see there.

Hitting should be improved, even if Trei Cruz leaves early as a drafted sophomore. We could return 7 everyday starters in the field, and then I do think some of the new recruits will fill in the spots we need to replace just fine. I do hope the new catchers can help Collins - he had to play way too much behind the plate in 2019.

I'm pretty sure Esquivel is gone, as he did graduate...and he's been injured for 2 1/2 years now. Deskin simply couldn't find the strike zone once the season started, but he's a lefty with quality stuff. I wouldn't give up on him yet.

I don't see how our offense improves, especially if Trei leaves. Cox showed some improvement this year, but it has a LONG, long way to go before he becomes a quality college hitter. And Beaulaurier strikes out over 33% of the time and hit below the Mendoza Line. And we lose either one (Dunlap) or both (Trei) of our true power threats.

(05-27-2019 11:07 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  ... if Trei Cruz leaves early as a drafted sophomore. ...

If he stays (and, hopefully, improves) for his junior year, would Trei still have the traditional junior-year MLB draft/contract leverage that is often lost when a player stays for his senior year?

With his limited range at SS ... and relatively many bobbled ground balls and wild throws to first ... it would seem that he would not be a high draft choice.

(05-27-2019 05:12 PM)Almadenmike Wrote:  

(05-27-2019 11:07 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  ... if Trei Cruz leaves early as a drafted sophomore. ...

If he stays (and, hopefully, improves) for his junior year, would Trei still have the traditional junior-year MLB draft/contract leverage that is often lost when a player stays for his senior year?

With his limited range at SS ... and relatively many bobbled ground balls and wild throws to first ... it would seem that he would not be a high draft choice.

Yes, he'd still have the leverage after his Junior season. I just don't see how he's a Top 10 round draft pick, at least not after this season. His stats were good, but certainly not great (.305/.395/.515, 9 HRs, 44 RBIs). Another year of similar improvement and he would be a Top 7 - 8 round pick....as an OFer.

I think you will be surprised. I don't see how Trei is not selected in the top 10 rounds, and would not be surprised if he goes much higher.

(05-29-2019 10:41 AM)Owl Is In Chains Wrote:  I think you will be surprised. I don't see how Trei is not selected in the top 10 rounds, and would not be surprised if he goes much higher.

What do you see in Trei that makes him a top ten round prospect? Seriously-not a dig at the guy. He's been a good, not great player the last two years.

Ford Stainback, for example, was an overall better player and wasn't exactly drafted highly.

(05-29-2019 11:09 AM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  

(05-29-2019 10:41 AM)Owl Is In Chains Wrote:  I think you will be surprised. I don't see how Trei is not selected in the top 10 rounds, and would not be surprised if he goes much higher.

What do you see in Trei that makes him a top ten round prospect? Seriously-not a dig at the guy. He's been a good, not great player the last two years.

Ford Stainback, for example, was an overall better player and wasn't exactly drafted highly.

The draft is all about talent and upside and Trei has a massive amounts of both. Add in his family pedigree and MLB teams become very intrigued.

While Ford was great, saying he was an overall better player is a significant stretch.

(05-29-2019 10:41 AM)Owl Is In Chains Wrote:  I think you will be surprised. I don't see how Trei is not selected in the top 10 rounds, and would not be surprised if he goes much higher.

Hey, I wish Trei the best, and his pedigree certainly helps him, but I'd be interested in hearing your rationale for why he'll be drafted so high? Based on what exactly? He does not have the range to be a major league middle infielder. And though his offensive stats are good (.305/.395/.519), they don't exactly jump off the page.

Seriously, I'd love to hear the basis of your opinion.

Talent, upside, pedigree.

Three things that MLB teams love and he's got all Trei.

(05-29-2019 04:15 PM)RiceOwl Wrote:  Talent, upside, pedigree.

Three things that MLB teams love and he's got all Trei.

That doesn't make him a Top 10 round draft pick. I agree he has upside, but it's not clear yet how high that upside is. He improved modestly between his Freshman and Sophomore years, but struggled mightily in front of the scouts last Summer on the Cape. Better AVG and plate discipline this year, but still strikes out way too much for an elite hitter. His defense is an issue. As I opined, I don't think he's an MLB middle infielder and very much doubt scouts feel differently. That means he's an OFer, which requires considerably better offensive numbers. Now, if he can show similar improvement as college Junior, hitting .320+/.400+/575+, then we're talking about a Top 7 round draft pick. I just don't see it after this year. I'm sure he'll be drafted in a couple weeks; I just don't think it's going to be top 10 rounds.

Leon Byrd was a 10th round pick. Based on this precedent, a betting man might say he should be a lock for the top 10. But I am not a betting man.

When you toss around numbers as a draft requirement it makes no sense. There are plenty of guys with mediocre stats who get drafted and just as many with phenomenal numbers who never get a shot. Even more guys have great stats in the MiLB and get cut while others with more talent and upside get to stick around despite bad stats.

Trei checks all the boxes for a team to take a gamble. I imagine he tries to use his leverage as a draft eligible sophomore and see if the $$$ is there. $$$ will have a bigger impact on if/where he is selected than his ability.

how is trei eligible as a soph? I thought you had to be a junior......

(05-29-2019 05:40 PM)RiceOwl Wrote:  I imagine he tries to use his leverage as a draft eligible sophomore and see if the $$$ is there. $$$ will have a bigger impact on if/where he is selected than his ability.

RiceOwl - How do you see his leverage/$$$-potential in this draft, vs next year's, after Trei's junior year, when (one would hope) his demonstrated skills would be at a higher level?

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=draft

MLB's top 200 draft prospects - I believe the only Owl or future Owl on the list is Matt Canterino at #46.

(05-29-2019 05:51 PM)texowl2 Wrote:  how is trei eligible as a soph? I thought you had to be a junior......

Age. I think he's 20. Anyway, he's a draft eligible sophomore.

If you turn 21 within 45 days of the draft, you can be drafted. He turns 21 on July 5th.

I don't know how Trei struggled mightily in the Cape last summer when he did not play there last summer.

(05-29-2019 06:19 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=draft

MLB's top 200 draft prospects - I believe the only Owl or future Owl on the list is Matt Canterino at #46.

And I've heard from reliable sources that Matt could go as high as the supplemental round; meaning the mid-30s.

I do think Kravetz could go as high as the fourth round, and almost assuredly by the 7th or 8th round. Unfortunately, he has absolutely no leverage in negotiating a signing bonus. I also suspect someone will take a gamble on Gayle no later than the 9th or 10th round.

BTW, RiceOwl, please name the "plenty of guys with mediocre stats" who get drafted in the Top 10 rounds, especially position players who are not defensive standouts?

Because of the way the bonus pool system is now, rounds 7-10 are mostly seniors or others without options who will sign for peanuts.

(05-29-2019 08:28 PM)Owl Is In Chains Wrote:  I don't know how Trei struggled mightily in the Cape last summer when he did not play there last summer.

Well, obviously, he struggled in the Cape because he wasn’t there. Duh.