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Chris Vannini in the Athletic (pay site) had a G5 mailbag today and was asked about dark horse Access Bowl candidates. Here's the relevant part:

Another team that has won a lot in recent years and brings a ton back is Appalachian State. Even with the new coaching staff, it should be the Sun Belt favorite. The Mountaineers play South Carolina in November in a sneaky game to keep an eye on. Utah State also falls in this group. With Boise State and Fresno State breaking in new quarterbacks, this could be the year Utah State wins the league, if the coaching transition goes smoothly.

Those teams are already on the radar because of their recent success, so who could be a surprise like Cincinnati was last year?

Let’s start with Western Michigan. Tim Lester’s program has had consecutive seasons derailed by season-ending injuries to quarterback Jon Wassink. With him as the starter, WMU is 11-6. Without him, WMU is 2-6. This year’s team might be the most experienced in the country. Trips to Toledo and NIU will be tricky, but if the Broncos can win those, a second New Year’s Six bowl could be in the cards.
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Written today but not sure if he was aware of the new transfers.

what a kick in the nuts to those who left... if this was actually to happen...

but lets be real... this isn't happening.

Lester hasn't proven that he can win a big game yet. Hell, he's had 3 horrible losses in the past 2 years (Akron 2017, CMU 2017, Ball State 2018), not to mention the absolute blowout losses to Ohio, Toledo and BYU last year.

I understand the key injuries and what have you...and I fully expect the team to be improved this season even with the loss of Reed and Brown. But the coaching staff hasn't proven a damn thing yet. Let's start with winning our division and go from there.

Yeah, not agreeing with the sentiment but I do find it interesting to see outsider viewpoints.

We also have to play cuse and MSU. I don’t see us winning both of those [/php]

Yeah, I have to say that it'd be silly to assume this is going to be "our year".

- The "Fantasy-Land Surprise" would be us going 10-2, which obviously wouldn't be enough anyway.
- The "Big Surprise" would be going 9-3.
- The "Yes, We Are On Track!" would be going 8-4.

Not only would we not have to bonk on a game we-should-win (like CMU under a new coach) -- even with potential injuries in mind... we have to play:
- @Cuse
- @MSU
- @Toledo
- @Ohio
- @NIU

We have a battle to overcum going 7-5. Losing those "expected not to win" games while putting up a good fight + beating everyone else and not bonking on anyone we-should-beat -- is what to measure Up or Down by.

Sure, we could beat @Ohio or @NIU -- that wouldn't be some shocker -- but not trading that for a loss to Miami-OH or CMU at home, or @EMU? AND ALSO not screwing up to lose to Ball State, GA-State, or BGSU at home?

A tougher schedule. 7-5, given we should be better (but tougher schedule + can't rule out injuries again either) -- is the "marker" to go by.

(05-21-2019 01:05 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Yeah, I have to say that it'd be silly to assume this is going to be "our year".

- The "Fantasy-Land Surprise" would be us going 10-2, which obviously wouldn't be enough anyway.
- The "Big Surprise" would be going 9-3.
- The "Yes, We Are On Track!" would be going 8-4.

Not only would we not have to bonk on a game we-should-win (like CMU under a new coach) -- even with potential injuries in mind... we have to play:
- @Cuse
- @MSU
- @Toledo
- @Ohio
- @NIU

We have a battle to overcum going 7-5. Losing those "expected not to win" games while putting up a good fight + beating everyone else and not bonking on anyone we-should-beat -- is what to measure Up or Down by.

Sure, we could beat @Ohio or @NIU -- that wouldn't be some shocker -- but not trading that for a loss to Miami-OH or CMU at home, or @EMU? AND ALSO not screwing up to lose to Ball State, GA-State, or BGSU at home?

A tougher schedule. 7-5, given we should be better (but tougher schedule + can't rule out injuries again either) -- is the "marker" to go by.

I agree with you on all points except CMU. While the new coach will gradually improve things (can't get much worse), the problems CMU experienced last season go deeper than coaching. There's no talent in Mount Pleasant! Neither Enos or Bonamego could recruit. Both Fleck and Lester dominated them on the recruiting trail.

WMU will have to completely implode and gift-wrap the game (i.e. 2017) for CMU to get another upset. Lester & Crew will not let that happen again.

(05-21-2019 02:07 PM)GullLake Wrote:  

(05-21-2019 01:05 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Yeah, I have to say that it'd be silly to assume this is going to be "our year".

- The "Fantasy-Land Surprise" would be us going 10-2, which obviously wouldn't be enough anyway.
- The "Big Surprise" would be going 9-3.
- The "Yes, We Are On Track!" would be going 8-4.

Not only would we not have to bonk on a game we-should-win (like CMU under a new coach) -- even with potential injuries in mind... we have to play:
- @Cuse
- @MSU
- @Toledo
- @Ohio
- @NIU

We have a battle to overcum going 7-5. Losing those "expected not to win" games while putting up a good fight + beating everyone else and not bonking on anyone we-should-beat -- is what to measure Up or Down by.

Sure, we could beat @Ohio or @NIU -- that wouldn't be some shocker -- but not trading that for a loss to Miami-OH or CMU at home, or @EMU? AND ALSO not screwing up to lose to Ball State, GA-State, or BGSU at home?

A tougher schedule. 7-5, given we should be better (but tougher schedule + can't rule out injuries again either) -- is the "marker" to go by.

I agree with you on all points except CMU. While the new coach will gradually improve things (can't get much worse), the problems CMU experienced last season go deeper than coaching. There's no talent in Mount Pleasant! Neither Enos or Bonamego could recruit. Both Fleck and Lester dominated them on the recruiting trail.

WMU will have to completely implode and gift-wrap the game (i.e. 2017) for CMU to get another upset. Lester & Crew will not let that happen again.

Coaching is everything in college football, and the new guy at CMU could be a difference maker. I hope not, but a coach can indeed turn things around for a program almost immediately, one way or the other. Don't think we should take CMU for granted.

As much as I'd like to see them continue to struggle, I also think CMU will be more competitive than many expect.

Their talent was 'meh' last year, but I believe at some point early on Bono lost connection with his team, kinda similar to Gary Darnell's last season. Brawls with Toledo in the last game. And didn't Mrs. Bono get banned from the stadium over a shouting match with the announcer?

If the new guy can change the atmosphere and culture early in his tenure, they can turn it around pretty quickly (unfortunately).

(05-22-2019 05:14 AM)brovol Wrote:  

(05-21-2019 02:07 PM)GullLake Wrote:  

(05-21-2019 01:05 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Yeah, I have to say that it'd be silly to assume this is going to be "our year".

- The "Fantasy-Land Surprise" would be us going 10-2, which obviously wouldn't be enough anyway.
- The "Big Surprise" would be going 9-3.
- The "Yes, We Are On Track!" would be going 8-4.

Not only would we not have to bonk on a game we-should-win (like CMU under a new coach) -- even with potential injuries in mind... we have to play:
- @Cuse
- @MSU
- @Toledo
- @Ohio
- @NIU

We have a battle to overcum going 7-5. Losing those "expected not to win" games while putting up a good fight + beating everyone else and not bonking on anyone we-should-beat -- is what to measure Up or Down by.

Sure, we could beat @Ohio or @NIU -- that wouldn't be some shocker -- but not trading that for a loss to Miami-OH or CMU at home, or @EMU? AND ALSO not screwing up to lose to Ball State, GA-State, or BGSU at home?

A tougher schedule. 7-5, given we should be better (but tougher schedule + can't rule out injuries again either) -- is the "marker" to go by.

I agree with you on all points except CMU. While the new coach will gradually improve things (can't get much worse), the problems CMU experienced last season go deeper than coaching. There's no talent in Mount Pleasant! Neither Enos or Bonamego could recruit. Both Fleck and Lester dominated them on the recruiting trail.

WMU will have to completely implode and gift-wrap the game (i.e. 2017) for CMU to get another upset. Lester & Crew will not let that happen again.

Coaching is everything in college football, and the new guy at CMU could be a difference maker. I hope not, but a coach can indeed turn things around for a program almost immediately, one way or the other. Don't think we should take CMU for granted.

It is a rivalry game that should NEVER be taken for granted.

Lester allowed that to happen in 2017. He learned his lesson and will not allow it to happen again. Last fall's game is a prime example.

The Cannon Trophy BELONGS in Kalamazoo. It is WMU's to lose.

(05-21-2019 01:05 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Yeah, I have to say that it'd be silly to assume this is going to be "our year".

- The "Fantasy-Land Surprise" would be us going 10-2, which obviously wouldn't be enough anyway.
- The "Big Surprise" would be going 9-3.
- The "Yes, We Are On Track!" would be going 8-4.

Not only would we not have to bonk on a game we-should-win (like CMU under a new coach) -- even with potential injuries in mind... we have to play:
- @Cuse
- @MSU
- @Toledo
- @Ohio
- @NIU

We have a battle to overcum going 7-5. Losing those "expected not to win" games while putting up a good fight + beating everyone else and not bonking on anyone we-should-beat -- is what to measure Up or Down by.

Sure, we could beat @Ohio or @NIU -- that wouldn't be some shocker -- but not trading that for a loss to Miami-OH or CMU at home, or @EMU? AND ALSO not screwing up to lose to Ball State, GA-State, or BGSU at home?

A tougher schedule. 7-5, given we should be better (but tougher schedule + can't rule out injuries again either) -- is the "marker" to go by.

Agreed. We need to get over that 7-5 hump, start winning some games that we aren't supposed to. I'm fine with Lester as long as he continually improves year after year but but I don't want to see him settle in at another 6-6 or 7-6 season