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UC needs two wins to get to six seed line in my view, at that point the tournament championship won’t matter. I keep going back to Buffalo and think all the bracket markers have them over seeded. They played five freaking games against NET top 100 teams, UC played 18. I can’t see them or any mid-major landing above the 8 line.

Houston is a 2 seed. Cincinnati is right on the 6/7 line. UCF is on the 7/8 line. Temple is probably around a 10/11.

Basicallly, Cats need to get back on track Friday with a win.

I politely disagree. We do not have very many quality wins. IMO, we're staring at an 8-9 right now which is exactly where we don't want to be. I'd rather be a 10 and that's definitely in play too but there's nothing impressive about our resume right now.

LOL

(03-10-2019 09:09 PM)OldenburgCat Wrote:  I politely disagree. We do not have very many quality wins. IMO, we're staring at an 8-9 right now which is exactly where we don't want to be. I'd rather be a 10 and that's definitely in play too but there's nothing impressive about our resume right now.

Look at the resumes. Still 4-4 against group 1. 6-1 agiant group 2. 10-5 is better than everyone currently at the 8-9 level. Win two more and that gets to 12-5.

UCF, Ole Miss, and Temple all project to the tournament.
The two wins over Memphis and the one over Xavier project as teams currently on the top two lines of the NIT bracket.

Take Cats have proven they are elite but they are really good agiant teams from around the 30 mark and below.

Wofford and Buffalo don’t deserve higher than the Cats. Not sure what the bracket mackers are thinking on those picks. It must be inflated NET rankings built on blowouts. Lots of high majors have hit the skids over the past month.

I don't believe these conference tourneys do much of anything for seeds at all. Many examples in the past where the conference tourneys are completely ignored. They're just like lotto games for teams to try and steal a bid who otherwise have no chance of going. Doesn't happen in the bigger conferences, but it's there for the taking.

(03-10-2019 09:21 PM)dsquare Wrote:  I don't believe these conference tourneys do much of anything for seeds at all. Many examples in the past where the conference tourneys are completely ignored. They're just like lotto games for teams to try and steal a bid who otherwise have no chance of going. Doesn't happen in the bigger conferences, but it's there for the taking.

Sunday is usually ignored but up to that point it usually provides a bit of a shift. The games matter quite a bit up until the last few hours where they already have the field locked in. I have seen teams rise multiple seed lines if the performance is strong enough.

(03-10-2019 09:31 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(03-10-2019 09:21 PM)dsquare Wrote:  I don't believe these conference tourneys do much of anything for seeds at all. Many examples in the past where the conference tourneys are completely ignored. They're just like lotto games for teams to try and steal a bid who otherwise have no chance of going. Doesn't happen in the bigger conferences, but it's there for the taking.

Sunday is usually ignored but up to that point it usually provides a bit of a shift. The games matter quite a bit up until the last few hours where they already have the field locked in. I have seen teams rise multiple seed lines if the performance is strong enough.

Uconn kemba's year and Syracuse the year if the McNamara heartbreak are two great examples.

UC won't be getting a six. LOL

This team is 7-10 material. Don't let the 25 wins fool you. What was our OOC SOS, 200+?

There is a great website called the Bracket Matrix where they list different bracket projections. Most of the projections have UC as a 6 or 7 seed, check it out.

(03-10-2019 09:39 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  UC won't be getting a six. LOL

This team is 7-10 material. Don't let the 25 wins fool you. What was our OOC SOS, 200+?

Overall SOS is 60. Played 18 games against the top 100 went 13-5. Went 6-5 against the top 75. They didn’t beat a two seed yesterday. Yes, keep bashing them after their worst game of the year.

Down to 27 in the NET. Combined with UC’s actual resume I still see a solid 7 seed with a chance at a six seed two wins away. Houston up to 4. Probably should be on two line with an outside shot at a one.

Sadly, because the AAC Conf Tourney Title game starts at 3:15 on Selection Sunday, I don't think that game even matters for seeding purposes.

I'd almost prefer a 7 if LSU is our 2-seed like the latest Lunardi projection guesses.

(03-11-2019 07:01 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Down to 27 in the NET. Combined with UC’s actual resume I still see a solid 7 seed with a chance at a six seed two wins away. Houston up to 4. Probably should be on two line with an outside shot at a one.

(03-11-2019 07:32 AM)Nasty Nati 513 Wrote:  Sadly, because the AAC Conf Tourney Title game starts at 3:15 on Selection Sunday, I don't think that game even matters for seeding purposes.

You're probably right on the seed although I'll tell you our resume is better than our team. You look at the good analytics and they'll tell you we're in the 30-35 range. And we've been dropping even before we were dropping games which tells me our current form is closer to 40 than 30. If we're in a 6-11 game it's likely to be like SKs senior year where we were in a 5/12 game against a team that was closely rated to us and although a seed upset it wasn't really an upset to lose that game. If we're in a 6/11 game depending on who it is it's likely a 50/50 game. If we play in a 7/10 or 8/9 game we will likely be an underdog.

As far as the title game not mattering considering the season has 30+ data points at that point I really have no issue in not putting much stock into the final data point. Even if we beat Houston does that dramatically change our resume? The media puts a lot more stock into this week than the committee does. Not much moving gets done this week.

No doubt, Houston is an excellent team. But I really can't see UC playing in the AAC Sunday game given yesterday's performance. When Cumberland's shots aren't falling the other shooters seem to tighten up and shoot poorly. Early in the second half I looked up and UC was shooting 32% and knew that wouldn't cut it against a great team.

So if UC goes 1-1 in Memphis I would think a #8 seed is likely.

(03-11-2019 08:06 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  

(03-11-2019 07:01 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Down to 27 in the NET. Combined with UC’s actual resume I still see a solid 7 seed with a chance at a six seed two wins away. Houston up to 4. Probably should be on two line with an outside shot at a one.

(03-11-2019 07:32 AM)Nasty Nati 513 Wrote:  Sadly, because the AAC Conf Tourney Title game starts at 3:15 on Selection Sunday, I don't think that game even matters for seeding purposes.

You're probably right on the seed although I'll tell you our resume is better than our team. You look at the good analytics and they'll tell you we're in the 30-35 range. And we've been dropping even before we were dropping games which tells me our current form is closer to 40 than 30. If we're in a 6-11 game it's likely to be like SKs senior year where we were in a 5/12 game against a team that was closely rated to us and although a seed upset it wasn't really an upset to lose that game. If we're in a 6/11 game depending on who it is it's likely a 50/50 game. If we play in a 7/10 or 8/9 game we will likely be an underdog.

As far as the title game not mattering considering the season has 30+ data points at that point I really have no issue in not putting much stock into the final data point. Even if we beat Houston does that dramatically change our resume? The media puts a lot more stock into this week than the committee does. Not much moving gets done this week.

It's all relative. We won't be the only team with a resume better than our actual on court play...some of those last teams that get in actually get dragged in just by virtue of having a ton of chances against good/decent teams and getting a few. Get a high seed and we could still have a favorable matchup. Drawing a team like Seton Hall would be great if we were a 6 seed, drawing a team like VCU and we may actually be an underdog.

When Xavier was an 11 seed and drew Maryland the good metrics had Xavier as the better team. That can happen in these 6/11 matchups no doubt.

I think they are 6/7, my gut says a 7. Don't see them falling to an 8 unless they get knocked out in round 1 of tourney and even then, their profile still seems much better than all the teams near that now. I think if we make the finals of AAC, we could get a 6 (That result doesn't matter at all to to the bracket, though they have said in the past they would make 2 brackets based on results of those games if there was need for a shift, but we wouldn't be in that position this season).

I agree that Buffalo and the other mid-majors will not be as high as the "bracketologists" have them and think they will be on the 8/9 lines. We may see more mid-majors get in this year, but it will only be as late adds I think.

Still just happy to make the tourney this year in a rebuilding mode and once you get there, anything can happen. Maybe in a year with no real expecactions is the year we can get some luck to be in our favor for once.

We'll be lucky to stay at a 7 and that would be a huge coup for UC if it played out that way IMO.

The reality is we really are more of a 9 through 11 type team this year. We've eeked out a lot of close games against average to below average competition.

Maybe they'll make a run in the conference tournament but I kind of expect them to lose either the opening game against SMU/Tulsa or in the semis to Temple/Wichita. I think teams have figured us out and realize how limited we are from a talent standpoint. Our only hope is if Keith Williams becomes ultra aggressive like Jarron on the offensive end and those two carry us.

(03-11-2019 09:24 AM)Marcus Wrote:  We'll be lucky to stay at a 7 and that would be a huge coup for UC if it played out that way IMO.

The reality is we really are more of a 9 through 11 type team this year. We've eeked out a lot of close games against average to below average competition.

Maybe they'll make a run in the conference tournament but I kind of expect them to lose either the opening game against SMU/Tulsa or in the semis to Temple/Wichita. I think teams have figured us out and realize how limited we are from a talent standpoint. Our only hope is if Keith Williams becomes ultra aggressive like Jarron on the offensive end and those two carry us.

Well not exactly. Efficiency metrics would put UC in 8/9 range. Result metics are 5/6/7.

This probably averaged to a 7 with opportunity to move up.

What this also means is that UC could be the classic over seeded team in round one. The Cats also have qualities that make them a prime candidate to pull an upset, lead dog with a history of big post season numbers and two senior point guards out to wash away senior day.

(03-11-2019 09:24 AM)Marcus Wrote:  We'll be lucky to stay at a 7 and that would be a huge coup for UC if it played out that way IMO.

The reality is we really are more of a 9 through 11 type team this year. We've eeked out a lot of close games against average to below average competition.

Maybe they'll make a run in the conference tournament but I kind of expect them to lose either the opening game against SMU/Tulsa or in the semis to Temple/Wichita. I think teams have figured us out and realize how limited we are from a talent standpoint. Our only hope is if Keith Williams becomes ultra aggressive like Jarron on the offensive end and those two carry us.

Totally agree.