A lot of good questions. I'm treating NET like RPI. I think counting q1/q2 wins will continue to be the biggest factor, though obviously there is nuance to it all. I went through the bubble and ranked how I think the committee will have it right now. I'll post a bracket maybe as early as tomorrow.
It's the most wonderful time of the year. Championship week, followed by the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. Nothing on the sports calendar is better. Every year I've done a preview of what the tournament field will look like. I always start by trying to rank the teams that are on the bubble. A few teams you won't see here because I think they are definitely in include UCF, Iowa and Syracuse. What follows is the order I have the bubble today. It is subject to change and there may be fewer spots if conference tournament upsets occur. As of today TCU is my last team in.
I am Pretty Confident They Will Make It
Seton Hall- I think they are in and will likely be one of the worst at large teams in if you put stock into predictive metrics. The bottom line is they have the wins and the Q1/Q2 record to overcome their flaws. They are 6-7 in Q1 games and 6-3 in Q2 games. This is huge for them in comparison to other bubble teams. When you look at their actual wins it is even more important. They have a neutral site win over Kentucky and a road win over Maryland to go with home wins over Villanova and Marquette. They also have road wins over bubble teams Creighton and Xavier, and home wins over bubble teams Butler, St Johns and Creighton. Of the bubble teams their resume stands out despite only being 62 NET and 59 kenpom.
Minnesota- I like their resume a little more than Ohio State’s at this point. They are a similar 3-9 in Q1 games, but 7-3 in Q2 games. They don’t have a bad loss. They have a road win against Wisconsin and a Neutral site win over Washington along with the big home win over Purdue. Another bubble team that sits under .500 in its conference (9-11).
VCU- 31 NET, 32 kenpom…this should absolutely be a tournament team, BUT there isn’t a lot to their resume and they have a couple bad losses. I think they should be in if they don’t win the A10 tournament, but they are absolutely the kind of team the committee has kept out in favor of middling p5s. 3-2 against q1 and 3-2 against q2 is helpful despite the lack of opportunities. Their road win over bubble team Texas and neutral site win over bubble team Temple should be enough to get them over the finish line. They do have a 1 point neutral court loss to St. Johns.
Washington- The Pac 12 is bad. They’ve been the best team in it. Only 47 in kenpom, but a decent 38 NET. 2-4 in Q1 games with their wins both coming against non-tournament teams. 8-6 against Q1/Q2. Their best win probably at Oregon (gross). The more I look at this the more I think it’s not a tournament resume, but would the Pac 12 champ really be left out?
Ole Miss- They have faded a bit down the stretch, but probably have enough on the resume to get in. 34 NET, 43 kenpom. Road wins against Auburn and Mississippi State and the neutral cite win against Baylor looks better and better. Only 4-10 v. Q1 teams and 7-11 against Q1/Q2, but no bad losses.
Oklahoma- 40 NET, 36 kenpom. They are probably a tournament caliber team, but they did only go 7-11 in their conference. Only 4-10 in Q1 games, but 6-2 in Q2 games, making them 10-12 against Q1/Q2. A big issue is they did almost all of their damage at home. Their neutral site win against Florida is their only Q1 win away from home (they have 2 road Q2 wins and 1 neutral Q2 win). They also have zero bad losses and did not play a single Q4 team among the games on their schedule. I think they’ll be rewarded for their 18 SOS despite being a team that hasn’t shown it can win tournament caliber games outside of Norman.
Flawed Resume that I Think Will Hold on (But I could be wrong)
Temple- Only 2-6 in Q1 games, but a solid 6-1 in Q2 games, Temple has put themselves in position to get a bid with a couple wins in the AAC tournament (and may sneak in regardless). The win over Houston is huge and the win over UCF has become a Q1 win with UCF’s recent surge. As far as wins over tournament teams that is all they have, but they have good road wins over Missouri, Wichita State, UConn and USF to go with a neutral cite win over Davidson. That 10-6 road/neutral record should be helpful. If the committee values predictive metrics at all they could drop some (only 69 kenpom), but that typically has not been the case.
Ohio State- Another team that is 4 games under .500 in their conference and they have really faded down the stretch. They have fallen to 55 NET and 44 kenpom. They went 4-9 against Q1 teams, though their best win is almost certainly the season opener at Cincinnati. Since then they don’t have a single win against a definite tournament team away from home. They do have road wins over bubble teams Creighton and Indiana which should help if they are compared with those teams. They are 4-3 against Q2, including wins over Iowa and Minnesota (both at home). This looks like a first four type resume to me and an early loss could have them in real trouble.
Utah State- Are the home Nevada win and Neutral court St Marys win enough? They seem like a prototypical end of the bracket or just out team. 3-2 Q1 is helpful as most bubble teams are well below .500 in q1 games, but they are only 1-3 in Q2 games. They have a loss to bubble Arizona State, but no really bad losses. The 30 NET is really good if that matters at all, the kenpom of 40 is fine and at large worthy. I hope they get in, but it will likely be close.
St Johns- How much will the committee value these middling Big East teams? St Johns is 66 NET and 74 kenpom. If they get in they have a great shot to be the worst at large team in the field. They finished under .500 in the Big East and were swept by Xavier (gross). AND YET…. They are 5-6 in q1 games and 5-3 in Q2 games which will compare very favorably to much of the bubble. A road win over Marquette is good, a Neutral site win over VCU is nice (both by 1 point) and they managed to beat Villanova and Marquette at home. They benefit greatly from the abundance of NIT caliber teams in the Big East keeping them close. I think they probably shouldn’t be in baring a run in the Big East tournament, but I think they are very likely to get in.
Arizona State- They have to hope the committee continues to value good wins more than bad losses. If that trend continues they will likely be on the right side of the bubble despite being 67 NET and 62 kenpom. They have two Q4 losses (Princeton and Washington State at home) and two more Q3 losses (at Vandy and at a putrid Cal team). However, they have neutral court wins over Mississippi State and Utah State, beat Kansas at home when Kansas was at full strength and beat Washington the only time they played. I’ve always been of the belief the committee should weight predictive metrics more than they do, but if it continues to be a look at Q1/Q2 kind of thing, Arizona State will sneak in.
Last Five I Have In For Now
Texas- They’re probably a tournament caliber team (39 NET, 27 kenpom), but they’d have more losses than any team in the history of the tournament. I’m skeptical but can’t rule them out. They have a bad loss to Radford. They are only 5-9 against Q1 teams and 4-5 against Q2 teams. To their credit they beat UNC on a neutral court, Kansas State on the road and Purdue at home. They have a 1 point loss to bubble VCU. They split with Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State and Kansas, but were swept by bubble TCU. The Big 12 is really deep with quality teams. The committee could choose to reward a team that is really good despite the losses. They don’t have any bad losses and have played the 6th toughest schedule in the country (16th nonconference SOS), which the committee often rewards.
Belmont- The kind of small conference team that almost always gets left out at the expense of middling power conference teams. They are 45 NET, 53 kenpom. They went 2-2 against Q1 and 3-2 against Q2. 17 of their wins are against Q4. Racking up wins against the dregs is something the committee kills teams for, but they can’t help their conference. They played the 76th nonconference SOS (by the committee’s team sheet metric which I believe is still stupidly RPI SOS). Their best wins are road wins at Murray State and Lipscomb, which are really solid wins likely to be undervalued by the committee. They also beat Lipscomb at home, in a weird scheduling fluke like UC had with Dayton many years ago and beat UCLA at Pauley. The resume is light on what the committee likes, but I am hopeful it will be just enough.
Florida- 14 losses, only 3-11 against Q1 teams, but 33 NET and 30 kenpom. They are probably a tournament caliber team, but they have a lot of losses and with that many opportunities should that be rewarded? They have a great road win at LSU, but their other q1 road wins are at Bama and Arkansas (are those really any better than Belmont’s wins at Lipscomb and Murray State?). They are 3-1 in Q2 games beating Ole Miss and Butler at home, but this is the kind of resume that screams NIT to me. They’ll likely be right around the cutline.
NC State- I want to keep this team out of the tournament and every instinct I have tells me that if it ends up being close the committee will do so. There are 353 teams in division 1 college basketball, and by the committee’s metric NC State played the 353rd worst nonconference SOS. Nobody played a worse nonconference SOS. Nonconference SOSs in the 300s have been a death sentence for bubble teams in the past, will that trend continue? The biggest difference this year is while RPI would have NC State at 101 (that’s right 101!), NET has NC State at 32 (they are 31 kenpom). They are undoubtedly a good team, likely a tournament caliber team, but that nonconference SOS is something else. 2-8 q1, but 6-0 q2. 4 of their Q1 losses are to Virginia, Duke and UNC, which are losses almost everyone would have. 3 of their other four Q1 losses are on the road. They have wins over Auburn, Clemson and Syracuse. History says they get penalized and left out without a couple more wins, but the NET is new and things may be different now.
TCU- They have feasted on the middle and bottom of the big 12, which is no small matter because the Big 12 is incredibly deep with quality. Swept by Texas Tech, Swept by Kansas, Swept by Kansas state. That’s 6 of their 11 conference losses. They swept Iowa State and swept bubble Texas. 3-8 Q1 and 5-4 Q2 with zero bad losses. I think they need at least a win in the Big 12 tournament and even then the play in game would probably be best case scenario unless they make a run.
First Five Out (But I Could Miss On)
Creighton- They better hope they aren’t on the cutline vs. Ohio State, because their resumes are virtually identical. Only 3-10 in Q1 games, by 6-3 in q2 games. They have zero bad losses which could carry some weight. A road win over suddenly fading Marquette and a neutral sight win over Clemson are their biggest wins. They were swept by bubble Seton Hall and St Johns and they split with bubblish Xavier and Butler.
Indiana- 6 q1 wins is the biggest thing they have going for them, but they are only 7-14 against q1/q2 teams. 14 losses is a lot to reward, but of the bubble teams they are undoubtedly going to have the best wins. They swept Michigan State (the outright Big Ten champions), beat Wisconsin at home, Louisville at home and Marquette at home. They sit at 51 NET and 42 kenpom. If committee looks to best wins to differentiate between teams like Indiana, Clemson, Ohio State and NC State, Indiana could have the advantage. 14 losses is a lot though.
Clemson- 1-9 in Q1 games with the one win at home against Virginia Tech. 6-3 in Q2 games, though none of those are against tournament caliber teams away from home (and only the Syracuse win is against a true tournament caliber team). They are 35 NET and 28 kenpom which suggests they are a tournament caliber team that’s played good schedule and been a bit unlucky (299 in kenpom luck factor), but there really isn’t much there to love. Without a couple more wins they will be hovering around the cutline.
Lipscomb- 2-3 Q1, but only 1-3 Q2. 17 of their wins are q4. They have a nice road win against bubble TCU, but that’s not going to be enough.
Alabama- They’ve done almost nothing away from home. They are 4-8 on the road. They have home wins over UK, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Murray state. They are 2-9 in Q1 games and 7-3 in Q2. I think they’ll be on the wrong side of the bubble.
I Can't See Them Getting in Without Help and A Great Championship Week
Georgetown- They played the 251 nonconference SOS and in doing so racked up 2 Q3 losses. I think they’ll pay the price for that and need to at least make the finals of the Big East tournament to have a chance. Getting to 9-9 in the conference helped, as did winning by 2 at Marquette and beating Villanova at home. After that their resume just isn’t anything to write home about. Swept by bubble Creighton, split with Seton Hall, split with bubble St. Johns, split with bubbling Xavier, Split with bubblish Butler. Only 76 NET and 86 kenpom. This shouldn’t be a tournament team.
Toledo- Missed both opportunities against Buffalo (their only 2 Q1 games). 4-0 against Q2 teams, which is good, but none of them are tournament quality and that matters to the committee. They have 4 q3 losses (11-4). They need to win the MAC tournament.
Xavier- Too many losses, not enough meat on the schedule, but does a run to the conference championship game give them a chance? They are 4-8 against q1 teams and 4-4 against q2. They are 71 NET and have climbed from the 100s to 66 kenpom. A home win over Villanova and road wins over Seton Hall and St. Johns are their “big” wins. They also have home wins over Creighton, Butler and St Johns. Their 2 q3 losses aren’t great and their wins aren’t good enough to offset everything else, but the teams above them aren’t that strong you can’t rule out a run to the Big East Finals getting them there.
Butler- Only 1-10 in Q 1 games, but 8-4 in Q2 games. Their resume is remarkably similar to Clemson’s except they have not played as good of teams as Clemson. Their best win is the neutral court win over bubble Florida. They also have home wins over Ole Miss, Creighton, Seton Hall, St Johns and Xavier (all bubble in or out). They lost on a neutral floor to bubble Indiana and only went 7-11 in the league. Another team that needs a run to the conference tournament finals.
Memphis- I think they need to win the AAC tournament (at Memphis so there is that), but a run to finals makes them interesting. They are 53 NET and only 72 kenpom. They went 1-8 against Q1 teams so picking up two to make the finals gets them to 3-8. They have home wins over UCF and Temple. 3 wins would give them another over UCF and likely one over Houston. They’d only be 2-3 against q2 teams, so I’m skeptical it would be enough, but again the teams above them aren’t great either.
Small Teams that I Wouldn't Mind Getting a Shot that Won't
UNCG- 2-5 in Q1 games. I don't think two wins over Furman and ETSU are enough.
Furman- I’m skeptical that 1-5 in Q1 games will be enough even if the one win is a road win at Villanova. Swept by Wofford, who will make it. Swept by UNC Greensboro. 16 wins are q4. They are 41 NET and 55 kenpom. That’s just not good enough.
St Marys- At 37 NET and 33 Kenpom they probably are an NCAA tournament caliber team, but I doubt they can get in without winning the WCC. They are 1-6 against q1 teams and their only win is over New Mexico State. They are 2-3 against q2 but nothing really stands out there. I can’t see them making it.
New Mexico State- Only 1 q1 game (a loss to Kansas). 2-1 against Q2, but none of those matter much and the loss was to St Marys. 14 of their wins are q4. They won’t be a tournament team without winning their conference tournament.
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Championship Week and Selection Sunday Questions
