http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketb...ies-bubble

UCF moved to lock status.

(03-08-2019 10:01 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:57 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:54 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Here's the problem with that theory. UCF going into last night was #35. So 2nd lowest 9 seed. They're probably up after yesterday to #29 or so- the highest 8 seed. A loss to Temple and they would fall- but only by 2-3 spots. Still in that 8 range. Meanwhile with a win, they'd move up to a 7 seed and out of the mix that way..

Overall, having the extra bid for Temple is the biggest thing for the conference IMO. Saying 4 bids vs 3 is huge.

I don't disagree. Just saying there won't be any benefit for UCF outside of that- they won't fall to a 10 seed.

If they lose to Temple, then lose their first game to Memphis in the AAC tourney, they might. And that's also a realistic scenario.

That could be the first steps to a 5th bid :)

They won't play Memphis. They'd finish tied at 13-5 with Temple. The Cincy win for UCF would put them as 3 seed with Temple as 4 seed. So they would likely see Wichita 1st round. Now yes a Wichita win there would put UCF down to a 10 seed.

(03-08-2019 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 10:01 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:57 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:54 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Here's the problem with that theory. UCF going into last night was #35. So 2nd lowest 9 seed. They're probably up after yesterday to #29 or so- the highest 8 seed. A loss to Temple and they would fall- but only by 2-3 spots. Still in that 8 range. Meanwhile with a win, they'd move up to a 7 seed and out of the mix that way..

Overall, having the extra bid for Temple is the biggest thing for the conference IMO. Saying 4 bids vs 3 is huge.

I don't disagree. Just saying there won't be any benefit for UCF outside of that- they won't fall to a 10 seed.

If they lose to Temple, then lose their first game to Memphis in the AAC tourney, they might. And that's also a realistic scenario.

That could be the first steps to a 5th bid :)

They won't play Memphis. They'd finish tied at 13-5 with Temple. The Cincy win for UCF would put them as 3 seed with Temple as 4 seed. So they would likely see Wichita 1st round. Now yes a Wichita win there would put UCF down to a 10 seed.

Incorrect. Temple only played Cincy once so that can't be used as a tiebreaker.

I believe it falls down to the games vs Wichita in which Temple is 1-0 and UCF is 0-1. There isn't a scenario where UCF loses this weekend and gets the 3 seed. If they lose tomorrow it's 4 seed for them.

(03-08-2019 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 10:01 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:57 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:54 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Here's the problem with that theory. UCF going into last night was #35. So 2nd lowest 9 seed. They're probably up after yesterday to #29 or so- the highest 8 seed. A loss to Temple and they would fall- but only by 2-3 spots. Still in that 8 range. Meanwhile with a win, they'd move up to a 7 seed and out of the mix that way..

Overall, having the extra bid for Temple is the biggest thing for the conference IMO. Saying 4 bids vs 3 is huge.

I don't disagree. Just saying there won't be any benefit for UCF outside of that- they won't fall to a 10 seed.

If they lose to Temple, then lose their first game to Memphis in the AAC tourney, they might. And that's also a realistic scenario.

That could be the first steps to a 5th bid :)

They won't play Memphis. They'd finish tied at 13-5 with Temple. The Cincy win for UCF would put them as 3 seed with Temple as 4 seed. So they would likely see Wichita 1st round. Now yes a Wichita win there would put UCF down to a 10 seed.

Temple wins and they are the three seed by beating Wichita and UCF losing in the one game they each played against the Shockers.

still think UCF losing to Temple and Memphis wouldn't drop them out of the 8/9 group.....

(03-08-2019 10:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  still think UCF losing to Temple and Memphis wouldn't drop them out of the 8/9 group.....

Maybe, maybe not. Either way. They will likely have a 1 or 2 seed in their second round if they win the first. Will be a tough task. I'll take one or possibly two extra bids instead

(03-08-2019 10:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  still think UCF losing to Temple and Memphis wouldn't drop them out of the 8/9 group.....

That may end up being the way it works out.

(03-08-2019 10:57 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 10:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  still think UCF losing to Temple and Memphis wouldn't drop them out of the 8/9 group.....

Maybe, maybe not. Either way. They will likely have a 1 or 2 seed in their second round if they win the first. Will be a tough task. I'll take one or possibly two extra bids instead

The thing that's interesting- if UCF does beat Temple and then beats Wichita in QF, can they get up to a 6 seed? Now, that would be something that would be very worth while. You say Temple wouldn't get in. I'd say if they can beat Memphis in QF, they'd make the tourney and likely outside of Dayton. If the league can have Houston at a 3, Cincy and UCF at 6, and Temple as an 11- not in Dayton- that's absolute best case scenario.

so looking at seed list from bracketville....
Houston 12
Cincy 22
UCF 30
Temple 46 (3rd team in)
Memphis 78(10th team out)

UCF 2nd 8 seed right now. The question now is if Temple loses to UCF but beats Memphis, are they in? If they are, it may be better for the league for UCF to beat Temple on Sunday and get totally off that 8 line and making it where a win in the QF might push them onto the 6 line. that would be ideal and give UCF a real shot to advance to a sweet 16 maybe????

I said this in the other thread, but all the talk about avoiding the 8/9 is misguided IMO. You want as good of a seed as possible to make your first game easier. Too much chaos happens in the tournament to worry too far ahead. And you are playing really good teams once you get into the 2nd/3rd rounds no matter what.

So I'm focused on getting as many teams in the tournament as possible. That means I'm rooting for Temple.

IMO, Temple has a better chance of beating UCF at home than they do of beating Memphis in the quarters of the AACT. I think they have to win one or the other to get in, for sure.

Btw, if Temple beats UCF, they will have the 3 seed in the AACT, and UCF the 4th.

The comparison results are the same, or get thrown out, until they reach Wichita. Both played once, both at Wichita. Temple won and UCF lost. Thus, Temple would be the 3 seed.

(03-08-2019 01:15 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  I said this in the other thread, but all the talk about avoiding the 8/9 is misguided IMO. You want as good of a seed as possible to make your first game easier. Too much chaos happens in the tournament to worry too far ahead. And you are playing really good teams once you get into the 2nd/3rd rounds no matter what.

So I'm focused on getting as many teams in the tournament as possible. That means I'm rooting for Temple.

The thing with the 8/9 and why you want to avoid it is that 1 seeds are 135-1 in 1st round games. So you're pretty much guaranteed to see the 1 seed in the 2nd rd. Even with the 7/10 matchup- 2 seeds are 128-8 in the 1st round. So if you are in the 7-10 pit of misery only 9 times in 24 years did the winner of the 1st game NOT see the 1 or 2 seed. The 1/2 seeds are for the most part devoid of chaos.

Meanwhile if you can get to the 6 line- while your 1st round record is almost identical to the 7 line- 6 line is 85-51 while 7 line is 84-42- in 2nd round due to more 3/14 upsets- 6 line has gone 42-43 in 2nd round games, while 7 line has gone only 27-57 in 2nd rd games.

1st rd matchups-
1/16- 135-1
2/15- 128-8
3/14- 115-21
4/13- 108-28
5/12- 89-47
6/11- 85-51
7/10- 84-52
8/9- 68-68

2nd rd-
1 seeds are 116-19
2 seeds are 84-44
3 seeds are 70-45
4 seeds are 64-44
5 seeds are 46-43
6 seeds are 42-43
7 seeds are 27-57
8 seeds are 13-55
9 seeds are 7-61
10 seeds are 24-28
11 seeds are 22-29
12 seeds are 20-27
13 seeds are 6-22
14 seeds are 2-19
15 seeds are 1-7
16 seeds are 0-1

Sorry but the 8/9 seeds are pretty much a death sentance. 12 seeds have advanced to the sweet 16 as many times and the 8/9's COMBINED! Largely because the 8/9's are pretty much guaranteed to have to see the 1 seed.

(03-08-2019 01:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:15 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  I said this in the other thread, but all the talk about avoiding the 8/9 is misguided IMO. You want as good of a seed as possible to make your first game easier. Too much chaos happens in the tournament to worry too far ahead. And you are playing really good teams once you get into the 2nd/3rd rounds no matter what.

So I'm focused on getting as many teams in the tournament as possible. That means I'm rooting for Temple.

The thing with the 8/9 and why you want to avoid it is that 1 seeds are 135-1 in 1st round games. So you're pretty much guaranteed to see the 1 seed in the 2nd rd. Even with the 7/10 matchup- 2 seeds are 128-8 in the 1st round. So if you are in the 7-10 pit of misery only 9 times in 24 years did the winner of the 1st game NOT see the 1 or 2 seed. The 1/2 seeds are for the most part devoid of chaos.

Meanwhile if you can get to the 6 line- while your 1st round record is almost identical to the 7 line- 6 line is 85-51 while 7 line is 84-42- in 2nd round due to more 3/14 upsets- 6 line has gone 42-43 in 2nd round games, while 7 line has gone only 27-57 in 2nd rd games.

1st rd matchups-
1/16- 135-1
2/15- 128-8
3/14- 115-21
4/13- 108-28
5/12- 89-47
6/11- 85-51
7/10- 84-52
8/9- 68-68

2nd rd-
1 seeds are 116-19
2 seeds are 84-44
3 seeds are 70-45
4 seeds are 64-44
5 seeds are 46-43
6 seeds are 42-43
7 seeds are 27-57
8 seeds are 13-55
9 seeds are 7-61
10 seeds are 24-28
11 seeds are 22-29
12 seeds are 20-27
13 seeds are 6-22
14 seeds are 2-19
15 seeds are 1-7
16 seeds are 0-1

Sorry but the 8/9 seeds are pretty much a death sentance. 12 seeds have advanced to the sweet 16 as many times and the 8/9's COMBINED! Largely because the 8/9's are pretty much guaranteed to have to see the 1 seed.

I'd like to go off topic and point out that WSU is one of those 7 wins out of the 9 seed... :)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

(03-08-2019 01:35 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:15 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  I said this in the other thread, but all the talk about avoiding the 8/9 is misguided IMO. You want as good of a seed as possible to make your first game easier. Too much chaos happens in the tournament to worry too far ahead. And you are playing really good teams once you get into the 2nd/3rd rounds no matter what.

So I'm focused on getting as many teams in the tournament as possible. That means I'm rooting for Temple.

The thing with the 8/9 and why you want to avoid it is that 1 seeds are 135-1 in 1st round games. So you're pretty much guaranteed to see the 1 seed in the 2nd rd. Even with the 7/10 matchup- 2 seeds are 128-8 in the 1st round. So if you are in the 7-10 pit of misery only 9 times in 24 years did the winner of the 1st game NOT see the 1 or 2 seed. The 1/2 seeds are for the most part devoid of chaos.

Meanwhile if you can get to the 6 line- while your 1st round record is almost identical to the 7 line- 6 line is 85-51 while 7 line is 84-42- in 2nd round due to more 3/14 upsets- 6 line has gone 42-43 in 2nd round games, while 7 line has gone only 27-57 in 2nd rd games.

1st rd matchups-
1/16- 135-1
2/15- 128-8
3/14- 115-21
4/13- 108-28
5/12- 89-47
6/11- 85-51
7/10- 84-52
8/9- 68-68

2nd rd-
1 seeds are 116-19
2 seeds are 84-44
3 seeds are 70-45
4 seeds are 64-44
5 seeds are 46-43
6 seeds are 42-43
7 seeds are 27-57
8 seeds are 13-55
9 seeds are 7-61
10 seeds are 24-28
11 seeds are 22-29
12 seeds are 20-27
13 seeds are 6-22
14 seeds are 2-19
15 seeds are 1-7
16 seeds are 0-1

Sorry but the 8/9 seeds are pretty much a death sentance. 12 seeds have advanced to the sweet 16 as many times and the 8/9's COMBINED! Largely because the 8/9's are pretty much guaranteed to have to see the 1 seed.

I'd like to go off topic and point out that WSU is one of those 7 wins out of the 9 seed... :)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LOL, +3 for sure.

(03-08-2019 01:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:15 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  I said this in the other thread, but all the talk about avoiding the 8/9 is misguided IMO. You want as good of a seed as possible to make your first game easier. Too much chaos happens in the tournament to worry too far ahead. And you are playing really good teams once you get into the 2nd/3rd rounds no matter what.

So I'm focused on getting as many teams in the tournament as possible. That means I'm rooting for Temple.

The thing with the 8/9 and why you want to avoid it is that 1 seeds are 135-1 in 1st round games. So you're pretty much guaranteed to see the 1 seed in the 2nd rd. Even with the 7/10 matchup- 2 seeds are 128-8 in the 1st round. So if you are in the 7-10 pit of misery only 9 times in 24 years did the winner of the 1st game NOT see the 1 or 2 seed. The 1/2 seeds are for the most part devoid of chaos.

Meanwhile if you can get to the 6 line- while your 1st round record is almost identical to the 7 line- 6 line is 85-51 while 7 line is 84-42- in 2nd round due to more 3/14 upsets- 6 line has gone 42-43 in 2nd round games, while 7 line has gone only 27-57 in 2nd rd games.

1st rd matchups-
1/16- 135-1
2/15- 128-8
3/14- 115-21
4/13- 108-28
5/12- 89-47
6/11- 85-51
7/10- 84-52
8/9- 68-68

2nd rd-
1 seeds are 116-19
2 seeds are 84-44
3 seeds are 70-45
4 seeds are 64-44
5 seeds are 46-43
6 seeds are 42-43
7 seeds are 27-57
8 seeds are 13-55
9 seeds are 7-61
10 seeds are 24-28
11 seeds are 22-29
12 seeds are 20-27
13 seeds are 6-22
14 seeds are 2-19
15 seeds are 1-7
16 seeds are 0-1

Sorry but the 8/9 seeds are pretty much a death sentance. 12 seeds have advanced to the sweet 16 as many times and the 8/9's COMBINED! Largely because the 8/9's are pretty much guaranteed to have to see the 1 seed.

I'm not saying the 8-9 seeds are great places to be. I'm saying it doesn't make sense to root for a team to be a 10-11 over winning and moving up.

So yes, a 6 or 7 is obviously a major improvement over an 8-9. What I'm saying is that I wouldn't root for my team to be an 11 over an 8-9 because that first round game is much harder. And that really does matter.

Also, you need to understand that as a Cincinnati fan, I focus on the first couple rounds. I have no idea what happens in the tournament after that.

(03-08-2019 02:29 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:15 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  I said this in the other thread, but all the talk about avoiding the 8/9 is misguided IMO. You want as good of a seed as possible to make your first game easier. Too much chaos happens in the tournament to worry too far ahead. And you are playing really good teams once you get into the 2nd/3rd rounds no matter what.

So I'm focused on getting as many teams in the tournament as possible. That means I'm rooting for Temple.

The thing with the 8/9 and why you want to avoid it is that 1 seeds are 135-1 in 1st round games. So you're pretty much guaranteed to see the 1 seed in the 2nd rd. Even with the 7/10 matchup- 2 seeds are 128-8 in the 1st round. So if you are in the 7-10 pit of misery only 9 times in 24 years did the winner of the 1st game NOT see the 1 or 2 seed. The 1/2 seeds are for the most part devoid of chaos.

Meanwhile if you can get to the 6 line- while your 1st round record is almost identical to the 7 line- 6 line is 85-51 while 7 line is 84-42- in 2nd round due to more 3/14 upsets- 6 line has gone 42-43 in 2nd round games, while 7 line has gone only 27-57 in 2nd rd games.

1st rd matchups-
1/16- 135-1
2/15- 128-8
3/14- 115-21
4/13- 108-28
5/12- 89-47
6/11- 85-51
7/10- 84-52
8/9- 68-68

2nd rd-
1 seeds are 116-19
2 seeds are 84-44
3 seeds are 70-45
4 seeds are 64-44
5 seeds are 46-43
6 seeds are 42-43
7 seeds are 27-57
8 seeds are 13-55
9 seeds are 7-61
10 seeds are 24-28
11 seeds are 22-29
12 seeds are 20-27
13 seeds are 6-22
14 seeds are 2-19
15 seeds are 1-7
16 seeds are 0-1

Sorry but the 8/9 seeds are pretty much a death sentance. 12 seeds have advanced to the sweet 16 as many times and the 8/9's COMBINED! Largely because the 8/9's are pretty much guaranteed to have to see the 1 seed.

I'm not saying the 8-9 seeds are great places to be. I'm saying it doesn't make sense to root for a team to be a 10-11 over winning and moving up.

So yes, a 6 or 7 is obviously a major improvement over an 8-9. What I'm saying is that I wouldn't root for my team to be an 11 over an 8-9 because that first round game is much harder. And that really does matter.

Also, you need to understand that as a Cincinnati fan, I focus on the first couple rounds. I have no idea what happens in the tournament after that.

I get that. I just think for the league, it's better if UCF wins tomorrow because a win there and they're out of the 8 line and maybe with a win in the tourney up to the 6 line.

Temple has a really weird profile. The one thing they have that a lot of teams on the bubble don't have is a great record away from home. That's going to serve them really well here I think.

I get what folks are saying that more teams is more important....

but I think you can make a very real case that what the league needs more is at least 1-2 teams making runs into the 2nd weekend this year. The way that happens is by having teams seeded better. There's a huge difference beween even a 6 and 7 seed.

Not too many teams in the country have played 13 road games. Many of the teams on the bubble are well under .500 away from home. We're 8-5.

I don’t know how the conference tourney bracket breaks down, but would a UCF win over Temple then maybe one win in the tourney get UCF to a 6-7 bid range? And from there Temple win and at least get to the finals get them a bid?

Could assure 4 bids while UCF avoids the 8/9 seed.