I will preface this by saying I'm depending a lot on the Colley rankings, so if you don't like them, you might want to stop reading now...

Looking at the brief history of the CFP here.

Clearly this is a very small sample size, but there appears to be a pattern of "respect" earned by winning the access bowl.

Boise State entered the access bowl as the #20 team in the 2014 final CFP rankings, but they were ranked 10th in Colley's Bias Free Matrix Rankings for that week. So, if you put much weight in the Colley Rankings (which I do because they know who the defending champ is), Boise State was ranked 10 spots behind where they should have been. They won their Fiesta Bowl date with Arizona, who had finished 10th in the CFP rankings.

The following year Houston was ranked 18th in the CFP and, like Boise the year before, 10th in the corresponding week's Colley rankings. Their 8 spots behind where they should have been was what I'd like to call an improvement in perception by 2 spots. Houston defeated FSU, who was 9th in the final CFP, in the Peach Bowl.

In 2016 WMU out of the MAC took the access bowl spot with a then-best final CFP ranking of 15. They were the first G5 school to be in the top 8 in the Colley rankings at #7, once again 8 spots better than the committee. However, WMU fell by one score (8 points) to Wisconsin, #8 in the final CFP rankings, thus the highest-ranked opponent for the G5 representative so far.

We all remember 2017 well, as UCF finished 12th in the CFP and (though they'd finish at #1) were 3rd in the Colley Matrix at the start of bowl season. Following WMU's loss the prior year, the difference between CFP and Colley ranking grew for the first time, from 8 to 9 spots. UCF would defeat Auburn, who was now the toughest G5 opponent at #7 in the final CFP poll.

So here we sit in 2018, with UCF the first G5 representative to actually be pretty accurately ranked. They are #8 in the CFP and #7 in the Colley, off by just 1 spot. LSU is #11 in the CFP final rankings, making this the first time the G5 rep has been ranked higher than their opponent.

If UCF pulls off the victory, could it lead to even more respect next year?

I do not think more respect is happening. I think they are just stuck with UCF going undefeated two years in a row. If they wanted to keep any semblance of being "equal" they had to up their ranking. Trust me they still want UCF #15. They just had their hands tied.

I think it’s closer simply because this is the 2nd year we are doing it. The preseason ranking helped a lot. We might not have received a bunch of style points but with the national title claim there was still a lot of attention.

Our story helped our ranking. That’s what the human factor needs to rank a G5 this high.

(12-14-2018 02:33 PM)TUCandoit Wrote:  I do not think more respect is happening. I think they are just stuck with UCF going undefeated two years in a row. If they wanted to keep any semblance of being "equal" they had to up their ranking. Trust me they still want UCF #15. They just had their hands tied.

We don't get any respect and will not get respect in future. It is essential for the P5 to maintain there supposed dominance and it can only be done by fraud.

The fact that there is even a "G5" in evidence of bias in and of itself ...

No

(12-14-2018 03:52 PM)Def Berkkat Wrote:  The fact that there is even a "G5" in evidence of bias in and of itself ...

Exactly...I love that freaking Wake Forest and Kansas are "power" teams. We get grouped with Florida International Airport.

I agree with all the responses so far. If any of our other teams do the same thing next year, they will likely come in 10 spots lower than their Colley actuals. UCF got a bump for the repeat.

Shorter version: The eye test is stupid.

I think with our next tv deal we require ESPN to use the term major-low in reference to some garbage in the p5.

From the official P5 standpoint there is no diminishing of the bias. If anything, it is the opposite.

On the other hand, many P5 fans view the AAC as being above the G4 conferences. This can be observed by visiting P5 forums. There are frequent comments supporting the AAC and individual AAC schools. They recognize what has been accomplished and the strength of the AAC.

Just keep grinding.

(12-14-2018 01:13 PM)Chappy Wrote:  I will preface this by saying I'm depending a lot on the Colley rankings, so if you don't like them, you might want to stop reading now...

Looking at the brief history of the CFP here.

Clearly this is a very small sample size, but there appears to be a pattern of "respect" earned by winning the access bowl.

Boise State entered the access bowl as the #20 team in the 2014 final CFP rankings, but they were ranked 10th in Colley's Bias Free Matrix Rankings for that week. So, if you put much weight in the Colley Rankings (which I do because they know who the defending champ is), Boise State was ranked 10 spots behind where they should have been. They won their Fiesta Bowl date with Arizona, who had finished 10th in the CFP rankings.

The following year Houston was ranked 18th in the CFP and, like Boise the year before, 10th in the corresponding week's Colley rankings. Their 8 spots behind where they should have been was what I'd like to call an improvement in perception by 2 spots. Houston defeated FSU, who was 9th in the final CFP, in the Peach Bowl.

In 2016 WMU out of the MAC took the access bowl spot with a then-best final CFP ranking of 15. They were the first G5 school to be in the top 8 in the Colley rankings at #7, once again 8 spots better than the committee. However, WMU fell by one score (8 points) to Wisconsin, #8 in the final CFP rankings, thus the highest-ranked opponent for the G5 representative so far.

We all remember 2017 well, as UCF finished 12th in the CFP and (though they'd finish at #1) were 3rd in the Colley Matrix at the start of bowl season. Following WMU's loss the prior year, the difference between CFP and Colley ranking grew for the first time, from 8 to 9 spots. UCF would defeat Auburn, who was now the toughest G5 opponent at #7 in the final CFP poll.

So here we sit in 2018, with UCF the first G5 representative to actually be pretty accurately ranked. They are #8 in the CFP and #7 in the Colley, off by just 1 spot. LSU is #11 in the CFP final rankings, making this the first time the G5 rep has been ranked higher than their opponent.

If UCF pulls off the victory, could it lead to even more respect next year?

Code:

Season -      Top G5     - CFP - COLLEY - Bowl Result    
2014     Boise State        20       10         W
2015     Houston            18       10         W
2016     Western Michigan   15        7         L
2017     UCF                12        3         W
2018     UCF                 8        7         ?

Well, I would go with Massey' Composite. Colley could be a lightning rod - not just for UCF in '17, it was assailed for ranking Clemson over Bama counter to the "championship" game results and other similar anomalies. Moreover, the composite takes away the argument someone will find against any single ranking.
That shows a smaller discrepancy between collective data-driven objective results and the CFP.
'14 Boise, 20 in CFP, 22 by MC
'15 Houston, 18 vs 14
'16 WMU, 15 vs 12
'17 UCF 12 vs 9
'18 UCF, 8 vs 8

So it's possbly a bias, but diminishing, but is it statistically significant?