So assuming Notre Dame is in, Alabama and Clemson win as expected but Ohio state and Oklahoma lose in the ccg - who gets the 4th spot? Does Texas or Washington slide in or does UCF gets a chance or can Michigan backdoor in. I am assuming that the CFP Rankings will be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio state, UCF, Michigan, Texas, Washington, Florida.

For this week, I see the following:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
7. UCF
8. Florida
9. LSU
10. Washington

However, after next week's CCGs, I can see Alabama and Clemson both winning, Oklahoma winning in a high-scoring game over Texas, and Ohio State blowing out Northwestern. Under that scenario, I can see Ohio State jumping Oklahoma due to margin of victory, and they would sneak in as the #4 team. That would lead to a Alabama/Ohio State and Clemson/Notre Dame semifinal, which both would create incredibly strong ratings for the CFP.

New Sagarin

School Rating (W-L) CCG
1 Alabama 103.11 (12-0) SEC
2 Clemson 99.64 (12-0) ACC
3 Georgia 92.87 (11-1) SEC
4 Ohio State 92.03 (11-1) B1G
5 Michigan 91.64 (10-2)
6 Oklahoma 90.75 (11-1) B12
7 Notre Dame 88.36 (12-0)
8 Mississippi St 87.62 (8-4)
9 Penn State 87.15 (9-3)
10 Washington 86.70 (9-3) P12

(11-25-2018 01:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 12:20 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 12:16 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 12:14 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Are we sure? They squeaked by USC tonight.

Yes, we are sure.

No we are not really sure because what if the committee wants Oklahoma and Ohio St in the Top 4.

The Michigan win is not that impressive anymore.

None of that matters. Notre Dame is 100% in. They don't have to worry about a thing.

Should be only 99.99% in. Say if the aliens invade Earth or zombie apocalypse breaks in the next four weeks, the CFP will be cancelled.

(11-25-2018 09:10 PM)ArQ Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 01:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 12:20 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 12:16 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 12:14 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Are we sure? They squeaked by USC tonight.

Yes, we are sure.

No we are not really sure because what if the committee wants Oklahoma and Ohio St in the Top 4.

The Michigan win is not that impressive anymore.

None of that matters. Notre Dame is 100% in. They don't have to worry about a thing.

Should be only 99.99% in. Say if the aliens invade Earth or zombie apocalypse breaks in the next four weeks, the CFP will be cancelled.

Good point.

(11-25-2018 07:17 PM)virgosports Wrote:  So assuming Notre Dame is in, Alabama and Clemson win as expected but Ohio state and Oklahoma lose in the ccg - who gets the 4th spot? Does Texas or Washington slide in or does UCF gets a chance or can Michigan backdoor in. I am assuming that the CFP Rankings will be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio state, UCF, Michigan, Texas, Washington, Florida.

If both Ohio State and Oklahoma lose next week, then Georgia will be the first two-loss team going to CFP.

(11-25-2018 10:49 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 10:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 09:57 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think had ND slipped last night OU and OSU might have jumped em, especially since the H2H with UM week 1 is enervated.

I am astonished by the number of folks who think there's even a smidge of a chance ND falls out of the top 4, either this week or in the final poll. I can only chalk it up to deep-seated Irish hating.

Mark My Words: ND is NOT falling out of the top 4. They will be #3 this week, and #3 or #4 in the final poll.

ND missing playoffs is Not Happening folks.

Its anti-ND bias. It is always there. It means nothing at all.

By the way, who are pro-ND and who are anti-ND?

I think

ACC- pro ND
SEC- neutral
B1G- pro ND
B12- anti ND
PAC- neutral
All G5- very anti ND

(11-25-2018 07:17 PM)virgosports Wrote:  So assuming Notre Dame is in, Alabama and Clemson win as expected but Ohio state and Oklahoma lose in the ccg - who gets the 4th spot? Does Texas or Washington slide in or does UCF gets a chance or can Michigan backdoor in. I am assuming that the CFP Rankings will be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio state, UCF, Michigan, Texas, Washington, Florida.

The only way I see UCF getting in is by Bama rolling big on UGA, Texas stomping OU, Clemson losing an ugly game to Pitt, and Northwestern getting one by the Buckeyes. It puts things into such chaos for all but Bama and Notre Dame, and will all have to do with the margins. It will simply be too darn tough to overlook UCF, and even here, I don’t love their chances.

The committee simply can’t or won’t look past certain schools. And the cfp has no problem bypassing logic or reason when it obsesses over a team, no matter the blemishes.

(11-25-2018 09:18 PM)ArQ Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 10:49 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 10:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 09:57 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think had ND slipped last night OU and OSU might have jumped em, especially since the H2H with UM week 1 is enervated.

I am astonished by the number of folks who think there's even a smidge of a chance ND falls out of the top 4, either this week or in the final poll. I can only chalk it up to deep-seated Irish hating.

Mark My Words: ND is NOT falling out of the top 4. They will be #3 this week, and #3 or #4 in the final poll.

ND missing playoffs is Not Happening folks.

Its anti-ND bias. It is always there. It means nothing at all.

By the way, who are pro-ND and who are anti-ND?

I think

ACC- pro ND
SEC- neutral
B1G- pro ND
B12- anti ND
PAC- neutral
All G5- very anti ND

Private/public/academy probably matters here more than we realize.

I can see how a Tulane, Navy, Army, or Rice would be indifferent to Notre Dame.

(11-25-2018 09:34 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 09:18 PM)ArQ Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 10:49 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 10:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 09:57 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think had ND slipped last night OU and OSU might have jumped em, especially since the H2H with UM week 1 is enervated.

I am astonished by the number of folks who think there's even a smidge of a chance ND falls out of the top 4, either this week or in the final poll. I can only chalk it up to deep-seated Irish hating.

Mark My Words: ND is NOT falling out of the top 4. They will be #3 this week, and #3 or #4 in the final poll.

ND missing playoffs is Not Happening folks.

Its anti-ND bias. It is always there. It means nothing at all.

By the way, who are pro-ND and who are anti-ND?

I think

ACC- pro ND
SEC- neutral
B1G- pro ND
B12- anti ND
PAC- neutral
All G5- very anti ND

Private/public/academy probably matters here more than we realize.

I can see how a Tulane, Navy, Army, or Rice would be indifferent to Notre Dame.

You happen to write down the only four schools that should be in P5 and not jealous of ND. Besides the four, all other G5 schools are very jealous of ND.

(11-25-2018 09:44 PM)ArQ Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 09:34 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 09:18 PM)ArQ Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 10:49 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 10:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I am astonished by the number of folks who think there's even a smidge of a chance ND falls out of the top 4, either this week or in the final poll. I can only chalk it up to deep-seated Irish hating.

Mark My Words: ND is NOT falling out of the top 4. They will be #3 this week, and #3 or #4 in the final poll.

ND missing playoffs is Not Happening folks.

Its anti-ND bias. It is always there. It means nothing at all.

By the way, who are pro-ND and who are anti-ND?

I think

ACC- pro ND
SEC- neutral
B1G- pro ND
B12- anti ND
PAC- neutral
All G5- very anti ND

Private/public/academy probably matters here more than we realize.

I can see how a Tulane, Navy, Army, or Rice would be indifferent to Notre Dame.

You happen to write down the only four schools that should be in P5 and not jealous of ND. Besides the four, all other G5 schools are very jealous of ND.

Why would G5 by anti ND? As a Memphis fan, we have no history with them and I am very indifferent. They have always be in the inner circle before several G5 even existed so they have been always there. I believe the ones that are jealous, it appears, of ND, always are the B10 fans from history or some ACC fans because Notre Dame gets preferential treatment when it comes to ACC bowl selection.

(11-25-2018 09:13 PM)ArQ Wrote:  

(11-25-2018 07:17 PM)virgosports Wrote:  So assuming Notre Dame is in, Alabama and Clemson win as expected but Ohio state and Oklahoma lose in the ccg - who gets the 4th spot? Does Texas or Washington slide in or does UCF gets a chance or can Michigan backdoor in. I am assuming that the CFP Rankings will be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio state, UCF, Michigan, Texas, Washington, Florida.

If both Ohio State and Oklahoma lose next week, then Georgia will be the first two-loss team going to CFP.

Certainly Georgia would have to not just lose, but lose badly and look bad in the loss to be overtaken by Texas or the PAC12 champ. I don't think NW can overtake them no matter what they look like in an upset NW win in the Big Ten CCG.

Why is the question most deserving 4 teams? I thought the committee is looking for 4 best teams. The Bama game vs Georgia is going to be tough. I would like to see things happen just to get UCF in there so Bama could put 50 by halftime so all those UCF fans can stop.

(11-26-2018 02:32 AM)kevinwmsn Wrote:  Why is the question most deserving 4 teams? I thought the committee is looking for 4 best teams. The Bama game vs Georgia is going to be tough. I would like to see things happen just to get UCF in there so Bama could put 50 by halftime so all those UCF fans can stop.

Sometimes the most deserving = the best teams as well. To me, if UCF gets the help they need (highly unlikely but not impossible), they will be in.

As far as OU/OSU it's honestly too close to call. You can cut that any way.

Plus I haven't seen evidence that the committee has favored best over most deserving in these first few years of the playoff cycle. Where is that evidence? If not from the top 4, the CFP rankings overall.

(11-25-2018 09:18 PM)ArQ Wrote:  By the way, who are pro-ND and who are anti-ND?

I think

ACC- pro ND
SEC- neutral

I think the ACC is praying that the committee leaves ND out of the playoffs. ND has said all along they will not join a conference unless it is clear they are at a severe systemic disadvantage in competing for the national title as an independent.

Well, going 12-0 yet missing the playoffs would prove just that. I would expect ND to fully join the ACC shortly thereafter.

That isn't going to happen, ND will make the playoffs, but that is what the ACC wants.

There are really only 5 teams left under consideration and two are automatic already

SEC Champ
Notre Dame

Clemson is in as the 3rd team with a win.
4th team is either12-1 Oklahoma, 12-1 Ohio State, or 12-1 runner up Alabama

If you want fun, hope for opposite day with wins for Texas, Northwestern and Pitt. I'd guess Clemson is still in then and #4 is a real headache.

(11-26-2018 04:59 PM)bronconick Wrote:  There are really only 5 teams left under consideration and two are automatic already

SEC Champ
Notre Dame

Clemson is in as the 3rd team with a win.
4th team is either12-1 Oklahoma, 12-1 Ohio State, or 12-1 runner up Alabama

If you want fun, hope for opposite day with wins for Texas, Northwestern and Pitt. I'd guess Clemson is still in then and #4 is a real headache.

Clemson is already-in. Their loss would be better than Oklahoma's and Ohio State's.

(11-25-2018 12:20 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  No we are not really sure because what if the committee wants Oklahoma and Ohio St in the Top 4.

The Michigan win is not that impressive anymore.

It's still a better win than Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, or Oklahoma have at this point.

(11-25-2018 03:03 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  ND has win by 10 points over NW, a top 20 team.

ND crushed Syracuse another top 20 team.

ND squeaked by Michigan by 7, a top 10-12 team.

Clearly they belong themselves in the Top 10 but they haven't proved anything else. In reality they are probably more like #6 behind Georgia, OSU and OU than #3.

Do you have some scenario where Michigan and Northwestern are good wins for Ohio State, but not for Notre Dame? Because ND's three best victories would be Michigan, NW, and Syracuse. Ohio State's would be Michigan, NW, and Penn State. Only Ohio State would also carry a loss, a nasty 4 TD ass whoopin to a 6-6 Purdue team. I am not sure how this is even a question...

(11-26-2018 05:16 PM)ArQ Wrote:  

(11-26-2018 04:59 PM)bronconick Wrote:  There are really only 5 teams left under consideration and two are automatic already

SEC Champ
Notre Dame

Clemson is in as the 3rd team with a win.
4th team is either12-1 Oklahoma, 12-1 Ohio State, or 12-1 runner up Alabama

If you want fun, hope for opposite day with wins for Texas, Northwestern and Pitt. I'd guess Clemson is still in then and #4 is a real headache.

Clemson is already-in. Their loss would be better than Oklahoma's and Ohio State's.

Clemson losing to 7-5 Pitt would be better than Oklahoma's loss to Texas?

(11-26-2018 05:44 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  Do you have some scenario where Michigan and Northwestern are good wins for Ohio State, but not for Notre Dame? Because ND's three best victories would be Michigan, NW, and Syracuse. Ohio State's would be Michigan, NW, and Penn State. Only Ohio State would also carry a loss, a nasty 4 TD ass whoopin to a 6-6 Purdue team.

Yes, obviously.

Quote:I am not sure how this is even a question...

By virtue of someone disputing the obvious.