(11-19-2018 02:10 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(11-19-2018 01:59 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  STOP with AUTO BIDS........ JUST STOP IT!!!!!!! That is a political answer ONLY.


UCF is the ONLY team in the G5 that deserves a spot in a field of 8 or 12 this year (not in this year's field of 4 though). If you let the MAC or Sunbelt Champ into that tournament [most years] that is merely a "September body bag game" where the only thing up for discussion is will someone on a real contender get hurt against a team they should not be on the field against with an NC appearance at stake. Using the PAC as the punching bag for a minute.... if the PAC champ is a 3 game loser, they should not get an auto spot either. In that scenario, there are very likely 12 other teams who are better than that.

If there are 2 or 3 worthy G5s in a given year then they should get in too, but they have to earn it.... tough S*** if they can't get the schedule strength, get a better AD who can figure it out.


I just don't get why anyone logical unbiased person would want anything less than the 12 best teams shooting for the title..... Not everybody gets a trophy - GET OVER IT!

Until they come up with a logical unbiased way of ranking the teams, then any such ranking is questionable.

Just to make an additional point..... I am actually as close to an unbiased follower of College Football as there is - I root for a "wannbe FBS" team in Umass, but i follow this stuff religiously and don't really have any P5 favoritism going on. I just want to see the best "X" number of teams play for the championship - period.

IMHO 12 is too many - 8 is about right. If UCF wins out they should be a top 8 team - no argument, but they ARE NOT one of the 4 best teams in the country.... they just aren't.

(11-19-2018 04:48 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  Actually, adding more teams makes A LOT more room for argument and butt-hurt. There is a cliff of sorts after you get past the top 6 or 7 teams where you can make a case for just about any team in the top 20 being included in spots 7 - 12.

That's kind of the beauty of 5+1+2. 9 years out of 10 you get the top 6 or 7 teams, a G5 and a weaker P5 champion. Right now, LSU would be on the outside looking in. Sure, LSU has an argument that they belong instead of Georgia (head-to-head) but the reality is that LSU got whupped by Alabama, and their best win ends up being over #22 Mississippi State.

There are games still to play, but it's going to be a rare season where more than 2 at-larges can argue that they CLEARLY belong in the playoff.

Quote:Regardless, it is unlikely that more than 1 or 2 G5 teams should normally be considered one of the best 12 and that is the tough-sh*t of it!

The day a G5 truly "bumps" a P5 (who universally should be in the playoff - whatever that may be down the road) will be the day, the NCAA will lose control of this and the P5 will pull out of the NCAA and run it themselves....

The CFP is an entity created by and owned by the 10 FBS conferences, not by the NCAA.

(11-19-2018 04:58 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  

(11-19-2018 02:10 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(11-19-2018 01:59 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  STOP with AUTO BIDS........ JUST STOP IT!!!!!!! That is a political answer ONLY.


UCF is the ONLY team in the G5 that deserves a spot in a field of 8 or 12 this year (not in this year's field of 4 though). If you let the MAC or Sunbelt Champ into that tournament [most years] that is merely a "September body bag game" where the only thing up for discussion is will someone on a real contender get hurt against a team they should not be on the field against with an NC appearance at stake. Using the PAC as the punching bag for a minute.... if the PAC champ is a 3 game loser, they should not get an auto spot either. In that scenario, there are very likely 12 other teams who are better than that.

If there are 2 or 3 worthy G5s in a given year then they should get in too, but they have to earn it.... tough S*** if they can't get the schedule strength, get a better AD who can figure it out.


I just don't get why anyone logical unbiased person would want anything less than the 12 best teams shooting for the title..... Not everybody gets a trophy - GET OVER IT!

Until they come up with a logical unbiased way of ranking the teams, then any such ranking is questionable.

Just to make an additional point..... I am actually as close to an unbiased follower of College Football as there is - I root for a "wannbe FBS" team in Umass, but i follow this stuff religiously and don't really have any P5 favoritism going on. I just want to see the best "X" number of teams play for the championship - period.

IMHO 12 is too many - 8 is about right. If UCF wins out they should be a top 8 team - no argument, but they ARE NOT one of the 4 best teams in the country.... they just aren't.

Based on that criteria, I'd argue that I'm even more unbiased than you. I don't even have a team.

The members of the CFP Committee, however, are anything but unbiased. Do you want to rely on them to determine your 8 "best" teams?

12 team playoff takes away from the value of the regular season. 8 teams does the job well.

(11-20-2018 01:37 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  12 team playoff takes away from the value of the regular season. 8 teams does the job well.

12 or 16 doesn’t take away from the regular season. That’s nonsense. 16 team playoff with auto bids for conferences champs makes the regular season more important. The only to guarantee you get in is have a good enough season to get to the conference championship game and win. If you don’t win it, that better be your only loss or 1 of 2 and that they better be close loses or your not getting in.

12 or 16 is way too many. There should be no way a 9-3/8-4 team should be playing for a NC. No auto bids either, best teams period regardless of conference. No more than 8 teams. Need to keep the regular season meaningful, unlike the NFL.

They should be a rule for the CFP that no team with 3 or more L's qualify for a playoff spot... Just like if you have less than 6 wins you don't go to a bowl game.

(11-19-2018 05:20 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Based on that criteria, I'd argue that I'm even more unbiased than you. I don't even have a team.

The members of the CFP Committee, however, are anything but unbiased. Do you want to rely on them to determine your 8 "best" teams?

Yes I do.

You can pick the field 1 million different ways from computer to human eye and first team out is going to b*tch about is why they aren't the last team in every single time....

They have gotten it right so far - Even if you think #5 got shafted and should have gotten in every year so far.... Why? Because #5 will think they got shafted every year anyways.....

A guarantee that a P5 get's in would be the biggest travesty of any 8 team scenario. There is a possibility that a P5 champ is not one of the best 8. And that is my argument. Until this is a reality, however, I do trust that they would pick the right 8 teams without "champ" being a criteria - they have already done it 3 times so far. Alabama, Ohio State and ND (I think). They have already proven that they will sit a P5 down if they didn't deserve it, why would I think it would be different if there were 8 instead of 4?

If this is about UCF ... They were't one of the best 4 teams last year. Great year, and winning an NY6 game was huge for that program, but they still didn't do enough to get in the final 4. There will be a year (probably sooner than we all think) that a G5 will make it in, but it wasn't last year and it won't be this year regardless of a perfect record for UCF or not.

(11-18-2018 03:28 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Like I said, people like to argue about playoff formats. But there are plenty of threads for that argument. I figured it would be good to give ourselves a mental picture of what a college football season would look like with an 8 team, 5+1+2 setup.

(TPTB aren't giving lower FBS 5/12 playoff spots. And I don't think TPTB are adding TWO playoff rounds in one fell swoop.)

I agree. I think your format is fair. If there were 12 spots for 10 champions and 2 at-larges, using the CFP Rankings the at-larges would go to Notre Dame and Georgia. It would exclude 1 loss teams including Ohio State. I think every team should start the season with a chance to be the champion, but giving every conference a playoff team is going too far. Furthermore, how many people would watch a 5 vs. 12 game with Troy, UAB, or Buffalo as the 12 with an automatic bid?

(11-20-2018 11:54 AM)Lopes87 Wrote:  They should be a rule for the CFP that no team with 3 or more L's qualify for a playoff spot... Just like if you have less than 6 wins you don't go to a bowl game.

I would modify that to say that a team cannot be chosen over a team with 2 fewer losses. I would allow 3 loss teams only if they were spots available after all the 0 and 1 loss teams regardless of conference were included. With an 8 team playoff, my rule would exclude 3 loss teams because even if there were spots available after the 0 and 1 losses, they would probably go to 2 loss teams.

(11-20-2018 12:18 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  

(11-19-2018 05:20 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Based on that criteria, I'd argue that I'm even more unbiased than you. I don't even have a team.

The members of the CFP Committee, however, are anything but unbiased. Do you want to rely on them to determine your 8 "best" teams?

Yes I do.

You can pick the field 1 million different ways from computer to human eye and first team out is going to b*tch about is why they aren't the last team in every single time....

They have gotten it right so far - Even if you think #5 got shafted and should have gotten in every year so far.... Why? Because #5 will think they got shafted every year anyways.....

A guarantee that a P5 get's in would be the biggest travesty of any 8 team scenario. There is a possibility that a P5 champ is not one of the best 8. And that is my argument. Until this is a reality, however, I do trust that they would pick the right 8 teams without "champ" being a criteria - they have already done it 3 times so far. Alabama, Ohio State and ND (I think). They have already proven that they will sit a P5 down if they didn't deserve it, why would I think it would be different if there were 8 instead of 4?

If this is about UCF ... They were't one of the best 4 teams last year. Great year, and winning an NY6 game was huge for that program, but they still didn't do enough to get in the final 4. There will be a year (probably sooner than we all think) that a G5 will make it in, but it wasn't last year and it won't be this year regardless of a perfect record for UCF or not.

It's not about UCF. By the numbers, they didn't deserve to be in the CFP last year, nor do they this year. In any case, I have no agenda here. I'm just approaching things from the most logical perspective I can, and numbers are more reliable and objective than pure human judgment. That's why I have no confidence in the CFP Committee rankings, and that's not even accounting for the inherent biases of the members.

For a G5 undefeated team, if the SOS isn't there then they truly have to be dominating everyone on their schedule to make a claim for inclusion. Looking (at least by score) of UCF's wins, two games would argue for not including them -- the win over Temple and the win over Navy. Temple is good but not great and Navy is not good this year.

(11-20-2018 12:42 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(11-20-2018 12:18 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  

(11-19-2018 05:20 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Based on that criteria, I'd argue that I'm even more unbiased than you. I don't even have a team.

The members of the CFP Committee, however, are anything but unbiased. Do you want to rely on them to determine your 8 "best" teams?

Yes I do.

You can pick the field 1 million different ways from computer to human eye and first team out is going to b*tch about is why they aren't the last team in every single time....

They have gotten it right so far - Even if you think #5 got shafted and should have gotten in every year so far.... Why? Because #5 will think they got shafted every year anyways.....

A guarantee that a P5 get's in would be the biggest travesty of any 8 team scenario. There is a possibility that a P5 champ is not one of the best 8. And that is my argument. Until this is a reality, however, I do trust that they would pick the right 8 teams without "champ" being a criteria - they have already done it 3 times so far. Alabama, Ohio State and ND (I think). They have already proven that they will sit a P5 down if they didn't deserve it, why would I think it would be different if there were 8 instead of 4?

If this is about UCF ... They were't one of the best 4 teams last year. Great year, and winning an NY6 game was huge for that program, but they still didn't do enough to get in the final 4. There will be a year (probably sooner than we all think) that a G5 will make it in, but it wasn't last year and it won't be this year regardless of a perfect record for UCF or not.

It's not about UCF. By the numbers, they didn't deserve to be in the CFP last year, nor do they this year. In any case, I have no agenda here. I'm just approaching things from the most logical perspective I can, and numbers are more reliable and objective than pure human judgment. That's why I have no confidence in the CFP Committee rankings, and that's not even accounting for the inherent biases of the members.

I'm probably as much of a numbers geek as anyone on this forum. That being said, I have more confidence in the CFP Selection Committee's judgment than I do any computer ranking. Computers are at least as unreliable and unobjective as humans are. And until we have 40 game regular seasons in college football, they always will be.

(11-19-2018 01:28 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  An 8 team playoff is perfect. Keeps the regular season still very meaningful, I think 12 teams is too much.

One G5 autobid is a good compromise to the power conferences getting the rest.

No G5 autobid.

I'm for an autobid for the five conferences that statistically have the strongest SOS. You need some measurably to justify it on a yearly basis.

And three at-large bids for #6,7,8

That will truly give every team a chance to make it to the playoff.

For example UCF is projected to be #9 this evening. If they win the AAC they most likely will be #8 at the end of the regular season.

Georgia will probably get demolished by Alabama.
If Ohio State losses to Michigan they will fall out of the top 10.
If Washington State loses to Utah or Washington they will fall out the top 10.

(11-18-2018 11:58 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Oklahoma, Washington State, UCF No margin for error--if they aren't conference champs, they're out.

I'm not sure about Oklahoma. If they lose tonight in a shootout, then their only losses are to Texas by 3 and West Virginia, um, in a shootout. On the other hand, who have they beaten? Iowa State?

How does that compare with an LSU (beat Georgia, soundly beaten by Alabama) or Georgia (loss to LSU, beat Florida and Kentucky, probably gets soundly beaten by Alabama in SEC title game)?

OK, bringing back this thread after the weekend's results, mostly OSU dismantling Michigan and Washington beating Washington STate

Autobids (projected): Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, UCF, Washington
Notre Dame is a lock for one of the two at-larges.

And we'd be looking to CCG weekend to determine the last at-large.

12-1 Alabama would be a lock. If all the favorites win, then it's between Georgia and Michigan, almost by default. Does Georgia look worse vs Alabama than Michigan did vs Ohio State?

11-2 Georgia (beat Kentucky, Florida in the top 25, lost to LSU and presumably Bama)
10-2 Michigan (lost to Notre Dame, Ohio State, beat Penn State, Northwestern)

9-3 LSU (beat Georgia, Miss State, 7OT loss to A&M, losses to Florida, Alabama) was eliminated this week by Texas A&M. Right?
10-2 Washington State beat Utah, lost to Washington and to USC (and maybe the refs, but USC is 5-7, so cry about it)

EDIT: Maybe Texas? 2 losses to Oklahoma, plus a shootout with Okie State?

I wish they would replace the conference championship games with an expansion of the playoff. Rather than two CCG rematches (Oklahoma v. Texas and Washington v. Utah) and two CCG duds (#2 Clemson v. unranked Pitt and #6 Ohio St. v. #21 Northwestern), you could replace CCG weekend with this:

#8 Washington at #1 Alabama
#7 UCF at #2 Clemson
#6 Ohio St. at #3 Notre Dame
#5 Oklahoma at #4 Georgia

Winners advance to the semifinals in the Cotton and Orange Bowls...the others retain a bid to the NY6 (like they would now).

That would be so much better than the current CCG format and 4-team CFP structure.