Looking more and more like this might be the year a 2 loss team gets into the playoffs.

Big 10-only Michigan and Ohio St. have one loss and they meet
Big 12-only OU and WVU have one loss and they meet. WVU has the toughest part of their schedule ahead
Pac 12-only Washington St. has one loss.
ACC-only Clemson has less than two losses.
SEC-Alabama is unbeaten and meets 1 loss LSU this week. Kentucky and Georgia are the only other one loss teams and they meet this week.

You could have a lot of controversy. Assume Alabama and Clemson run the table, Washington St. loses, OU and WVU each get one more loss and the Ohio St./Michigan winner loses one other game (maybe the ccg). Then you've got unbeaten Alabama and Clemson and a bunch of two loss teams + the AAC champion. That's not a particularly unlikely scenario.

Of course, the boring scenario is that Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St. and Oklahoma all run the table.

(10-28-2018 09:44 AM)bullet Wrote:  Of course, the boring scenario is that Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St. and Oklahoma all run the table.

Unbeaten Notre Dame can afford losing one game and still goes to CFP.

Why did you leave ND out?

Until all the 0 loss teams have a loss, why consider 2 loss teams?

(10-28-2018 09:50 AM)ArQ Wrote:  

(10-28-2018 09:44 AM)bullet Wrote:  Of course, the boring scenario is that Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St. and Oklahoma all run the table.

Unbeaten Notre Dame can afford losing one game and still goes to CFP.

I don't think so. Lose once and the Irish are out.

(10-28-2018 09:50 AM)wleakr Wrote:  Why did you leave ND out?

Until all the 0 loss teams have a loss, why consider 2 loss teams?

Forgot about them for the moment. But you could have Alabama, Clemson, ND and a bunch of two loss teams.

I don’t think ND is in with a loss, unless UM runs the table giving them a good SoS. If OSU and OU run it, they will get in over one loss ND.

You could see:

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. OSU
4. OU/ND one loss.

Most definitely OU is in. Why? Cause they beat WVU back to back or WVU and UT back to back, which will be better than NDs stretch.

I’d rather they just give UCF the bid but it’s looking unlikely.

Done deal:
Alabama
Clemson
Notre Dame
B1G/Big 12

(10-28-2018 11:19 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-28-2018 09:50 AM)wleakr Wrote:  Why did you leave ND out?

Until all the 0 loss teams have a loss, why consider 2 loss teams?

Forgot about them for the moment. But you could have Alabama, Clemson, ND and a bunch of two loss teams.

I don't think it will come to that. I think the winner of Ohio State/Michigan wins their CCG and gets in with 1 loss. Michigan has the tougher path, but is playing the best ball in the Big 10.

The controversial event would be a 1 loss L.S.U. upsetting Alabama by a point or two late in the game, and Alabama once again not going to the SEC championship, and having the Georgia/LSU winner get in and Alabama going again as an at large. Then if Clemson and Notre Dame run the table and the Big 10 champion Michigan with 1 loss is left out of the selection we have a 5 alarm controversy.

That would bust the whole CFP selection process wide open!

Bama has been in the CfP every year. At some point you have to hand over the mantel. The human element will keep them out as a second place finisher. Can’t believe people buy into this Bama fear porn. If they lose next week they will be out.

Anything is possible, but a lot of things would have to happen to get to a place where fewer than 4 P5 teams have fewer than 2 losses.

ACC - Look at Clemson's remaining schedule. Clemson losing two games against that schedule is about as likely as the moon falling out of orbit and crashing into the earth. But if they lose one, might they get passed over in favor of a conference champ such as 11-2 Michigan or 11-2 Texas?

Big Ten - Most likely possibilities are (1) Michigan loses to Penn State; Michigan beats Ohio State, or (2) Michigan-Ohio State winner loses Big Ten CCG. Possible.

Big 12 - Possible. OU and WVU could each lose a game, or OU wins out but loses to UT in the CCG.

Notre Dame - Not likely that they'll lose two. It's possible that they lose one and, in that case, see comment above about Clemson.

Pac-12 - Likely. Wazzu almost always has one poor game in them (hopefully this week ), and to get to 12-1 they would have to beat Washington and (probably) Utah.

SEC - Not likely because a lot would have to happen. Something like: LSU beats Bama; LSU loses to TAMU; Bama loses to Auburn; LSU wins CCG.

(10-28-2018 11:53 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Bama has been in the CfP every year. At some point you have to hand over the mantel. The human element will keep them out as a second place finisher. Can’t believe people buy into this Bama fear porn. If they lose next week they will be out.

If Alabama loses to LSU, they might miss the playoffs if they win their remaining games. Or they might still make the playoffs. It will just depend on what other teams do, just like it did last year after they lost to Auburn.

They needed help last year, and they would need help this year. But they got it last year and could get it this year. That's not "fear porn", it's reality.

(10-28-2018 11:53 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Bama has been in the CfP every year. At some point you have to hand over the mantel. The human element will keep them out as a second place finisher. Can’t believe people buy into this Bama fear porn. If they lose next week they will be out.

The committee relies a lot on the eyeball test. And Nick Saban recruits better than anybody else and has the best athletes on the field. Not always the best team, but they definitely pass the eyeball test.

(10-28-2018 11:53 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Bama has been in the CfP every year. At some point you have to hand over the mantel. The human element will keep them out as a second place finisher. Can’t believe people buy into this Bama fear porn. If they lose next week they will be out.

That's not how it works. IF anything, an 11-1 or 12-1 Bama will get the benefit of any doubt. It's not a matter of "handing over the mantle", it's a matter of winning 4 of the last 7 national titles (one shared with UCF) and playing in 3 straight national championship games gets you the benefit of the doubt.

Now, if it comes down to an undefeated Clemson and Notre Dame, and 1-loss Michigan, Oklahoma and Alabama, they might go with the conference champions. Or Texas might skid to 8-4 and LSU might win the SEC championship game vs Florida, putting Alabama ahead.

If LSU/Georgia/Kentucky, Ohio St/Michigan, & Oklahoma/WVU all drop a 2nd game - don’t discount Wazzu getting in if they run the table. Remember they’d be undefeated if not for objectively poor officiating against USC.

(10-28-2018 06:35 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  If LSU/Georgia/Kentucky, Ohio St/Michigan, & Oklahoma/WVU all drop a 2nd game - don’t discount Wazzu getting in if they run the table. Remember they’d be undefeated if not for objectively poor officiating against USC.

If you're willing to hand out a 2nd loss to all those teams, why not hand one to Wazzu as well?

Honestly, my money is on them being the first to that 2nd loss...lol!

People are underestimating the amount of potential chaos left on schedules. conferences have learned to put their top games last to have as many top ranked teams as possible in the conversation until the end. There are 6 guaranteed losses to top 15 teams due to head-to-head matchups BEFORE the CCGs. If ND picks up a loss, it could get really interesting.

(10-28-2018 11:02 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  People are underestimating the amount of potential chaos left on schedules. conferences have learned to put their top games last to have as many top ranked teams as possible in the conversation until the end. There are 6 guaranteed losses to top 15 teams due to head-to-head matchups BEFORE the CCGs. If ND picks up a loss, it could get really interesting.

Yep, there is PLENTY of football left to be played.

I think it's more likely Notre Dame loses two games from here on out than goes undefeated. Plenty of chances for all the contenders to lose.

What a travesty if a team goes undefeated for 2 seasons in a row without ONE shot at a playoff game.

(10-28-2018 11:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-28-2018 11:02 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  People are underestimating the amount of potential chaos left on schedules. conferences have learned to put their top games last to have as many top ranked teams as possible in the conversation until the end. There are 6 guaranteed losses to top 15 teams due to head-to-head matchups BEFORE the CCGs. If ND picks up a loss, it could get really interesting.

Yep, there is PLENTY of football left to be played.

I think it's more likely Notre Dame loses two games from here on out than goes undefeated. Plenty of chances for all the contenders to lose.

Agreed. It might be even be three losses or they could lose all four remaining games, as well.


People play this "playoff game" way too early.