(07-13-2018 03:24 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  So realistically, how early do you think UT is going to renew the B12 GOR? A year? Two years?

Not until they and OU have kicked the tires, seen what the options are and gotten a deal for a renewed TV contract.

OU holds the key.

I don't think Texas would be the first one to leave the Big 12. Too much political fallout from Texas schools left behind.

If OU leaves, UT is almost forced to leave at that point.

(07-13-2018 03:43 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  OU holds the key.

I don't think Texas would be the first one to leave the Big 12. Too much political fallout from Texas schools left behind.

If OU leaves, UT is almost forced to leave at that point.

Probably.

WTH is A5? Is that Autonomy Five?

(07-13-2018 03:47 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  WTH is A5? Is that Autonomy Five?

That is the "official" term.

2 from BYU, Colorado State, and Cincy are the best realistic pickups. You could also add all 3 and maybe Houston.

(07-13-2018 01:40 PM)esayem Wrote:  Oklahoma and another school (OK St. or KU) could leave the Big XII and be replaced by Houston or BYU, giving the conference nine members. This would allow Texas to add Oklahoma as an OOC game and pretty much not miss a beat. The remainder of the conference would take a hit, but realistically they have nowhere else to go so it doesn’t matter. The conference would still be considered P5 because of Tejas. The Big XII, or Big IX, would be in a similar situation to the Big East in the 90’s when Miami was the top program.

If Oklahoma leaves and they back load with any G5's they won't be considered a power conference. Texas might get consideration for the CFP, but their SOS would take a hit and they would be worse off for SOS than when Baylor and T.C.U. were hoping for a CFP slot. Houston, or B.Y.U., does not take an Oklahoma's place. Oklahoma has a billion dollar economic impact valuation (courtesy of the WSJ) Houston and B.Y.U. together barely cover a quarter of that.

Why does OU hold the key? Any conference could have taken them in 2010 but failed to do so.

(07-13-2018 03:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The two "blue bloods" would be UConn and Tulane.

Just understand Oklahoma State is not acceptable to the Pac-12, B1G or SEC. KU would be the fall back 16th (if they don't stand pat at 15) if Texas wont move, as a partner for Oklahoma, as a flagship, big name and AAU school. Presidents and Chancellors decide.

If Texas remains, the "blue bloods" are as likely as anyone to be added. No Texas schools would be lost, so Rice and Houston would fall off the list. Cincy is the ultimate compromise choice. Colorado State fills the return to Denver address and nothing else. Temple is Philadelphia and nothing else. BYU has far too many no votes, and would be football only (make more sense in a move to 12, as Football only). So that leaves two directions:

1. Florida (UCF and USF)
2. Academics, aka, "Blue Bloods" (Tulane and UConn; Rice being out as 4 Texas schools already)

A compromise would be one of each, with USF ranking a bit higher than UCF more for it's med school and fed research grants. UConn ranks a bit better than Tulane by virtue of being a flagship. So my compromise WAG, USF and UConn.

Anyway, this is all a good 5+ years out from happening. And it's premised on the assumption that OU can separate cleaning from oSu (the SEC would allow Bedlam to continue in November, not sure the B1G would concede that as an OOC). As for B12 back filling, the academics really can't change in that time (same blue bloods). But the Football and Basketball fortunes, including scandals, certainly can. So while a school might rise above the others on athletics, UConn and Tulane will still be on the list for academics and prestige.

Zero reason to add either. The BIG advantage the Big12 has is dividing its non-TV loot by just 10 teams. Zero reason to change that. Unless they have an opportunity to add a true "blue blood" or a tv network throw ridiculous money at them to expand---standing pat is going to be the final decision for this group. The B12 schools received 34 million each this year. So, whoever is added must add 34 million each in media value to offset cutting the pie one more way. That's just to break even---so that 34 million each figure doesnt even include anything extra to serve as a motivation to make the addition. To increase the payout by just pone million for the current members, any additional school would have to add about 40 million in media value. So, two additions would need to bring about 80 million in additional revenue to the table. That eliminates most everyone but a handful of royal blue bloods.

(07-13-2018 04:32 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-13-2018 03:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The two "blue bloods" would be UConn and Tulane.

Just understand Oklahoma State is not acceptable to the Pac-12, B1G or SEC. KU would be the fall back 16th (if they don't stand pat at 15) if Texas wont move, as a partner for Oklahoma, as a flagship, big name and AAU school. Presidents and Chancellors decide.

If Texas remains, the "blue bloods" are as likely as anyone to be added. No Texas schools would be lost, so Rice and Houston would fall off the list. Cincy is the ultimate compromise choice. Colorado State fills the return to Denver address and nothing else. Temple is Philadelphia and nothing else. BYU has far too many no votes, and would be football only (make more sense in a move to 12, as Football only). So that leaves two directions:

1. Florida (UCF and USF)
2. Academics, aka, "Blue Bloods" (Tulane and UConn; Rice being out as 4 Texas schools already)

A compromise would be one of each, with USF ranking a bit higher than UCF more for it's med school and fed research grants. UConn ranks a bit better than Tulane by virtue of being a flagship. So my compromise WAG, USF and UConn.

Anyway, this is all a good 5+ years out from happening. And it's premised on the assumption that OU can separate cleanly from oSu (the SEC would allow Bedlam to continue in November, not sure the B1G would concede that as an OOC). As for B12 back filling, the academics really can't change in that time (same blue bloods). But the Football and Basketball fortunes, including scandals, certainly can. So while a school might rise above the others on athletics, UConn and Tulane will still be on the list for academics and prestige.

Zero reason to add either. The BIG advantage the Big12 has is dividing its non-TV loot by just 10 teams. Zero reason to change that. Unless they have an opportunity to add a true "blue blood" or a tv network throw ridiculous money at them to expand---standing pat is going to be the final decision for this group. The B12 schools received 34 million each this year. So, whoever is added must add 34 million each in media value to offset cutting the pie one more way. That's just to break even---so that 34 million each figure doesnt even include anything extra to serve as a motivation to make the addition. To increase the payout by just pone million for the current members, any additional school would have to add about 40 million in media value. So, two additions would need to bring about 80 million in additional revenue to the table. That eliminates most everyone but a handful of royal blue bloods.

My comments were about replacements for OU and KU going to another conference. They would stay at 10 if those never leave, and they would only fill back up to 10 if they leave. 10 is the minimum to keep a CCG.

You need to read what I say before commenting on it in order not to look really stupid.

I think Nebraska, Arkansas and Mizzou would be smart to join the big 12 as they simply do not fit in to their current conferences and need the Texas recruiting:
Big 12 North: Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, OK St, Nebraska, Mizzou
Big 12 South: Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, Arkansas, West Virginia
Maybe throw in a Colorado St to even it out with a good academic state school in a place where mid western and Texas folks love traveling to.

(07-13-2018 04:52 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I think Nebraska, Arkansas and Mizzou would be smart to join the big 12 as they simply do not fit in to their current conferences and need the Texas recruiting.

100%

Natural rivalries + Texas recruiting - far flung geography - Alabama/Ohio St = Success

(07-13-2018 05:09 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(07-13-2018 04:52 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I think Nebraska, Arkansas and Mizzou would be smart to join the big 12 as they simply do not fit in to their current conferences and need the Texas recruiting.

100%

Natural rivalries + Texas recruiting - far flung geography - Alabama/Ohio St = Success

Not sure if you agree with me or making a joke but Nebraska ain't big 10 and Mizzou sure as hell ain't southern

Not a joke lol posted this earlier in the thread

(07-13-2018 01:47 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Arkansas would be a better FB program in the BXII.
Missouri would be a better FB program in the BXII.
Nebraska would be a better FB program in the BXII.

Those 3 can enjoy their greenbacks, while a long list of programs continue to pass them by. Who would’ve thought 20 years ago TCU would be better than all 3 programs?

There’s been some local press in Lincoln about unhappy fans are about Nebraska’s time in the big10, some are saying about 50%, not sure if that means they would won’t back in the he big12, but Iam sure being in the same conference with Oklahoma doesn’t hurt
Heck you can put Wisconsin in the mix too, makes sense geographically speaking for both Wisconsin and Nebraska

Nebraska wants the original Big 8 back

But that's just not happening. Theyre not going back to the L10. Now getting OU into the B1G? All problems solved

(07-13-2018 04:45 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(07-13-2018 04:32 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-13-2018 03:32 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The two "blue bloods" would be UConn and Tulane.

Just understand Oklahoma State is not acceptable to the Pac-12, B1G or SEC. KU would be the fall back 16th (if they don't stand pat at 15) if Texas wont move, as a partner for Oklahoma, as a flagship, big name and AAU school. Presidents and Chancellors decide.

If Texas remains, the "blue bloods" are as likely as anyone to be added. No Texas schools would be lost, so Rice and Houston would fall off the list. Cincy is the ultimate compromise choice. Colorado State fills the return to Denver address and nothing else. Temple is Philadelphia and nothing else. BYU has far too many no votes, and would be football only (make more sense in a move to 12, as Football only). So that leaves two directions:

1. Florida (UCF and USF)
2. Academics, aka, "Blue Bloods" (Tulane and UConn; Rice being out as 4 Texas schools already)

A compromise would be one of each, with USF ranking a bit higher than UCF more for it's med school and fed research grants. UConn ranks a bit better than Tulane by virtue of being a flagship. So my compromise WAG, USF and UConn.

Anyway, this is all a good 5+ years out from happening. And it's premised on the assumption that OU can separate cleanly from oSu (the SEC would allow Bedlam to continue in November, not sure the B1G would concede that as an OOC). As for B12 back filling, the academics really can't change in that time (same blue bloods). But the Football and Basketball fortunes, including scandals, certainly can. So while a school might rise above the others on athletics, UConn and Tulane will still be on the list for academics and prestige.

Zero reason to add either. The BIG advantage the Big12 has is dividing its non-TV loot by just 10 teams. Zero reason to change that. Unless they have an opportunity to add a true "blue blood" or a tv network throw ridiculous money at them to expand---standing pat is going to be the final decision for this group. The B12 schools received 34 million each this year. So, whoever is added must add 34 million each in media value to offset cutting the pie one more way. That's just to break even---so that 34 million each figure doesnt even include anything extra to serve as a motivation to make the addition. To increase the payout by just pone million for the current members, any additional school would have to add about 40 million in media value. So, two additions would need to bring about 80 million in additional revenue to the table. That eliminates most everyone but a handful of royal blue bloods.

My comments were about replacements for OU and KU going to another conference. They would stay at 10 if those never leave, and they would only fill back up to 10 if they leave. 10 is the minimum to keep a CCG.

You need to read what I say before commenting on it in order not to look really stupid.

lol. You should probably not call someone stupid and then post something stupid. You dont need 10 for a CCG. That rule is gone--and when it existed the number was 12. If you wanted to have a CCG in an 8 team conference--you can. The only requirement to play a CCG is to have a round robin within the entire conference and have the top 2 play in the CCG---or divide into 2-divisions and play a round robin within those divisions with the division champs playing in the CCG. Total number of teams no longer matters other than the minimal number to have a FBS conference.


NCAA Manual 17.10.5.2.1 (page 270)

(b) Conference Championship Game. One conference championship game:

(1) Between division champions of a conference that is divided into two divisions (as equally balanced
in number as possible) and conducts round-robin, regular-season competition in each
division; or

(2) Between the top two teams in the conference standings following full round-robin regularseason
competition among all members of the conference.

The only other of the five Highly Resourced Conferences that would be vulnerable to a Big 12 poaching is the Pac 12. The only coronation I see working would be USC, UCLA, Utah, Colorado, and one of the Arizona schools. Utah and Colorado (particularly Colorado) will want a fooat all game in Southern California every year.

If West Virginia can get a soft landing in the SEC or ACC, the Big 12 stops at 14:

West - USC, UCLA, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Texas Tech, TCU
East - Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State

I could then see the Big 10 electing to shut the Pac 12 down by inviting Washington, Oregon, Stanford, California, and Arizona State. Not sure who the 20th member would be, but my hunch would be someone to fill out a five-team pod on the East Coast like Virginia:

Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Stanford, California, Arizona State
West - Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Central - Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan
East - Michigan State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia

(07-13-2018 11:15 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-13-2018 10:58 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  The Texas administration has changed
Texas wasn’t allways the toxic big bully that lead to four schools leaving the b12
The vultures that have been circling over the b12 are no longer smelling death but seeing greener grass growing
The b12 is a healthy A5 conference, why would Texas and Oklahoma want to leave at this point ?
Why would Texas and Oklahoma want to stay in the b12 is the real question y’all need to ask yourselves

I'm not saying that Texas and Oklahoma will leave. They might not ever leave... but that underlying threat is always there in a way that doesn't exist with respect to, say, Michigan and Ohio State leaving the Big Ten or Alabama and Florida leaving the SEC. The Big 12 is like living on an earthquake fault line or a dormant volcano - it might not ever actually be an issue, but IF it does, you're screwed. You don't deal with that at all in the other P5 leagues. Those other P5 leagues are protected from the disaster scenarios by comparison.

I agree on the B1G, SEC and Pac-12 but not so much on the ACC. If the ACC Network is a dud, the ACC will join the Big XII in the earthquake fault line or dormant volcano category. If you’re Clemson and Florida State, one thing is to be behind Ohio State and Alabama in tv dollars. Another thing is to behind Minnesota and Missouri. A school with no options like Louisville and Boston College would be fine in such scenario. But a school with options such as Clemson and Virginia Tech will not be be happy making $20-25 million less than a middle of the pack B1G and SEC school. That’s why it’s a must for the ACCN to succeed. Otherwise, it’s the Big XII with more members and less money.

(07-13-2018 03:51 PM)bluesox Wrote:  2 from BYU, Colorado State, and Cincy are the best realistic pickups. You could also add all 3 and maybe Houston.

What is the fascination with CSU? They have no athletic history, no fan base outside of alums and students. CU rulesthe Centennial State.


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