Baseball America published its first post-season Field of 64 on Wednesday: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/...h-28-2018/

Their predictions include:

Southern Miss hosts and FAU gets in.

Stanford (3), Vandy (10) and Duke (13) host. For the first time, all hosts are seeded this year. (USM is #16 seed.)

Others in include auto-bids Sam Houston State & Columbia and at-large entrants TCU, Texas, A&M, Dallas Baptist, Central Florida, Baylor ... and Houston.

Shall we surprise the Eagles in Hattiesburg this weekend?

At this rate, if we somehow win the CUSA tourney again we might be a #4 seed.

(03-31-2018 09:22 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  At this rate, if we somehow win the CUSA tourney again we might be a #4 seed.

Last year, there were only 6 teams with an RPI below 130 that made the tournament (as auto-bids). This isn't a might-be-a-4-seed situation. Without almost winning out (and maybe not even then), that RPI isn't going to wind up in a top 50 position to make a case as a 3 seed. Rice is already playing the second of 4 top 100 teams in CUSA, and so far is 1-3. Everything else isn't going to give much of a lift.

CUSA is also down, per Nolan. CUSA was the #6 conference last year, and right now it's the #12 conference.

(03-31-2018 11:11 AM)gsloth Wrote:  

(03-31-2018 09:22 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  At this rate, if we somehow win the CUSA tourney again we might be a #4 seed.

Last year, there were only 6 teams with an RPI below 130 that made the tournament (as auto-bids). This isn't a might-be-a-4-seed situation. Without almost winning out (and maybe not even then), that RPI isn't going to wind up in a top 50 position to make a case as a 3 seed. Rice is already playing the second of 4 top 100 teams in CUSA, and so far is 1-3. Everything else isn't going to give much of a lift.

CUSA is also down, per Nolan. CUSA was the #6 conference last year, and right now it's the #12 conference.

Luckily, 4-seeds have done well from time to time.

UVA 4-8 in the ACC (barely over .500 overall) and Fullerton is way under .500 like us.

UGA is probably the biggest surprise of the spring this far IMO.

(04-01-2018 09:28 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  UVA 4-8 in the ACC (barely over .500 overall) and Fullerton is way under .500 like us.

UGA is probably the biggest surprise of the spring this far IMO.

Kentucky has also lost all of their SEC series after starting in the top 10.

I doubt Houston will be in their latest projections after going 1-3 last week (including losing 2 of 3 at Cincinnati). They only have played 2 teams with a winning record all season (losing both of them at the Minute Maid tournament). So they have 9 losses already against teams with a losing record (1 of them being to us).

There is so much parity in college baseball right now (after the top 10-15 elite teams), it really comes down to health, doing the small things right (errors, baserunning, etc), and mental toughness. Rice has started the season with some bad luck on health (though that seems to be improving). But the difference between the current 10-18 Rice team and a team that is just over .500 is Rice's failure to do the small things right (too many stupid mental and physical errors), as well as a lack of mental toughness (relievers having their control fall apart, the offense leaving the bases loaded an almost hysterical number of times, etc.).

Even if this team is less talented than prior iterations of Rice baseball teams, the fact that we are on the wrong end of the small things right and mental toughness spectrum is concerning. Those used to be areas where Rice excelled (except for sac bunting). The hope for me in 2018, such that it is, is that the 2017 team improved a lot over the course of the season in those areas. But that doesn't excuse the fact that both teams have basically shot themselves in the foot repeatedly (or punched themselves in the dick, if you are a walking dead fan), at the beginning of the last 2 seasons. And even if this team improves, it doesn't mean an extension for the current staff would be the right answer.

We’re actually 12-18 right now.

We have a couple of easier conference series coming up... Just winning every series probably gets us to the conference tourney.

Wasn’t WKU at home supposed to be easy?

Nothing seems easy at the moment, but of course it never is.

Seems like an at-large is at best a sub 5% probability if not lower, so basically just trying to get into the top 8 of CUSA and hoping that having no more classes etc. can improve our mental focus and make another run similar to last year.

Doesn't really matter if we are #8 or #5 in CUSA, we will have to beat the same group of quality teams albeit in potentially different order. With all of the woulda coulda shoulda action from our team this year, no doubt we can be highly competitive if mental focus was improved. Still doesn't help the frustration of losing on silly mistakes and doing things like walking 6 guys in a row.

(04-03-2018 10:32 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  Nothing seems easy at the moment, but of course it never is.

Seems like an at-large is at best a sub 5% probability if not lower, so basically just trying to get into the top 8 of CUSA and hoping that having no more classes etc. can improve our mental focus and make another run similar to last year.

Doesn't really matter if we are #8 or #5 in CUSA, we will have to beat the same group of quality teams albeit in potentially different order. With all of the woulda coulda shoulda action from our team this year, no doubt we can be highly competitive if mental focus was improved. Still doesn't help the frustration of losing on silly mistakes and doing things like walking 6 guys in a row.

Guys, CUSA sucks. If you are not in either first or second in the league you are going no where post season. To be scrambling to make the baseball tournament in a crap league speaks volumes. This isn't the SEC, ACC, Big 12 or Pac 12. This is CUSA....and Rice Baseball is almost in last place. When will Graham be held accountable for this mess?

(04-04-2018 07:03 PM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 10:32 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  Nothing seems easy at the moment, but of course it never is.

Seems like an at-large is at best a sub 5% probability if not lower, so basically just trying to get into the top 8 of CUSA and hoping that having no more classes etc. can improve our mental focus and make another run similar to last year.

Doesn't really matter if we are #8 or #5 in CUSA, we will have to beat the same group of quality teams albeit in potentially different order. With all of the woulda coulda shoulda action from our team this year, no doubt we can be highly competitive if mental focus was improved. Still doesn't help the frustration of losing on silly mistakes and doing things like walking 6 guys in a row.

Guys, CUSA sucks. If you are not in either first or second in the league you are going no where post season. To be scrambling to make the baseball tournament in a crap league speaks volumes. This isn't the SEC, ACC, Big 12 or Pac 12. This is CUSA....and Rice Baseball is almost in last place. When will Graham be held accountable for this mess?

Fact Check: Conference USA has been ranked (RPI) among the top five baseball conferences in eight of the last 11 seasons.
C-USA has placed at least four teams in the NCAA Championship 10 times in the past 15 years, producing five teams on two occasions.
Source: CUSA Media Guide

(04-04-2018 10:07 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 07:03 PM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 10:32 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  Nothing seems easy at the moment, but of course it never is.

Seems like an at-large is at best a sub 5% probability if not lower, so basically just trying to get into the top 8 of CUSA and hoping that having no more classes etc. can improve our mental focus and make another run similar to last year.

Doesn't really matter if we are #8 or #5 in CUSA, we will have to beat the same group of quality teams albeit in potentially different order. With all of the woulda coulda shoulda action from our team this year, no doubt we can be highly competitive if mental focus was improved. Still doesn't help the frustration of losing on silly mistakes and doing things like walking 6 guys in a row.

Guys, CUSA sucks. If you are not in either first or second in the league you are going no where post season. To be scrambling to make the baseball tournament in a crap league speaks volumes. This isn't the SEC, ACC, Big 12 or Pac 12. This is CUSA....and Rice Baseball is almost in last place. When will Graham be held accountable for this mess?

Fact Check: Conference USA has been ranked (RPI) among the top five baseball conferences in eight of the last 11 seasons.
C-USA has placed at least four teams in the NCAA Championship 10 times in the past 15 years, producing five teams on two occasions.
Source: CUSA Media Guide

Don't believe everything you read. Look at the teams in the conference. Perhaps number 5 ranked conference by default but distant from the top 4.

(04-04-2018 11:51 PM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 10:07 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 07:03 PM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 10:32 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  Nothing seems easy at the moment, but of course it never is.

Seems like an at-large is at best a sub 5% probability if not lower, so basically just trying to get into the top 8 of CUSA and hoping that having no more classes etc. can improve our mental focus and make another run similar to last year.

Doesn't really matter if we are #8 or #5 in CUSA, we will have to beat the same group of quality teams albeit in potentially different order. With all of the woulda coulda shoulda action from our team this year, no doubt we can be highly competitive if mental focus was improved. Still doesn't help the frustration of losing on silly mistakes and doing things like walking 6 guys in a row.

Guys, CUSA sucks. If you are not in either first or second in the league you are going no where post season. To be scrambling to make the baseball tournament in a crap league speaks volumes. This isn't the SEC, ACC, Big 12 or Pac 12. This is CUSA....and Rice Baseball is almost in last place. When will Graham be held accountable for this mess?

Fact Check: Conference USA has been ranked (RPI) among the top five baseball conferences in eight of the last 11 seasons.
C-USA has placed at least four teams in the NCAA Championship 10 times in the past 15 years, producing five teams on two occasions.
Source: CUSA Media Guide

Don't believe everything you read. Look at the teams in the conference. Perhaps number 5 ranked conference by default but distant from the top 4.

Agree that someone should be accountable for allowing the baseball team to, at least at times and increasing in frequency, appear to be a conference doormat like some of our other programs.

Disagree that CUSA is an also ran in baseball. CUSA is terrible for football and MBB, but several years of decent baseball teams. FAU and SoMiss are legit top 25 teams this year and LaTech is not far behind. Depending on who wins the conference tourney, we could be a 3 team league this year which isn't too shabby. Even when Rice baseball was "good", we still would have had issues competing in a P5 conference like the Big 12 and SEC. A lot of years we looked better on paper since we could annihilate WAC teams who barely fielded a full roster and we saved aces for mid-week RPI boosters. Not a huge surprise that we under-performed in Omaha for several years.

(04-05-2018 04:14 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  Disagree that CUSA is an also ran in baseball. CUSA is terrible for football and MBB, but several years of decent baseball teams. FAU and SoMiss are legit top 25 teams this year and LaTech is not far behind. Depending on who wins the conference tourney, we could be a 3 team league this year which isn't too shabby. Even when Rice baseball was "good", we still would have had issues competing in a P5 conference like the Big 12 and SEC. A lot of years we looked better on paper since we could annihilate WAC teams who barely fielded a full roster and we saved aces for mid-week RPI boosters. Not a huge surprise that we under-performed in Omaha for several years.

You have to get to Omaha in order to underperform in Omaha.

(04-05-2018 04:14 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 11:51 PM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 10:07 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 07:03 PM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 10:32 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  Nothing seems easy at the moment, but of course it never is.

Seems like an at-large is at best a sub 5% probability if not lower, so basically just trying to get into the top 8 of CUSA and hoping that having no more classes etc. can improve our mental focus and make another run similar to last year.

Doesn't really matter if we are #8 or #5 in CUSA, we will have to beat the same group of quality teams albeit in potentially different order. With all of the woulda coulda shoulda action from our team this year, no doubt we can be highly competitive if mental focus was improved. Still doesn't help the frustration of losing on silly mistakes and doing things like walking 6 guys in a row.

Guys, CUSA sucks. If you are not in either first or second in the league you are going no where post season. To be scrambling to make the baseball tournament in a crap league speaks volumes. This isn't the SEC, ACC, Big 12 or Pac 12. This is CUSA....and Rice Baseball is almost in last place. When will Graham be held accountable for this mess?

Fact Check: Conference USA has been ranked (RPI) among the top five baseball conferences in eight of the last 11 seasons.
C-USA has placed at least four teams in the NCAA Championship 10 times in the past 15 years, producing five teams on two occasions.
Source: CUSA Media Guide

Don't believe everything you read. Look at the teams in the conference. Perhaps number 5 ranked conference by default but distant from the top 4.

Agree that someone should be accountable for allowing the baseball team to, at least at times and increasing in frequency, appear to be a conference doormat like some of our other programs.

Disagree that CUSA is an also ran in baseball. CUSA is terrible for football and MBB, but several years of decent baseball teams. FAU and SoMiss are legit top 25 teams this year and LaTech is not far behind. Depending on who wins the conference tourney, we could be a 3 team league this year which isn't too shabby. Even when Rice baseball was "good", we still would have had issues competing in a P5 conference like the Big 12 and SEC. A lot of years we looked better on paper since we could annihilate WAC teams who barely fielded a full roster and we saved aces for mid-week RPI boosters. Not a huge surprise that we under-performed in Omaha for several years.

Kind of like the teams in the NCAA March Madness with great records from weaker conferences. Teams like Gonzaga will have inflated records.

(04-05-2018 04:14 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 11:51 PM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 10:07 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 07:03 PM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  

(04-03-2018 10:32 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  Nothing seems easy at the moment, but of course it never is.

Seems like an at-large is at best a sub 5% probability if not lower, so basically just trying to get into the top 8 of CUSA and hoping that having no more classes etc. can improve our mental focus and make another run similar to last year.

Doesn't really matter if we are #8 or #5 in CUSA, we will have to beat the same group of quality teams albeit in potentially different order. With all of the woulda coulda shoulda action from our team this year, no doubt we can be highly competitive if mental focus was improved. Still doesn't help the frustration of losing on silly mistakes and doing things like walking 6 guys in a row.

Guys, CUSA sucks. If you are not in either first or second in the league you are going no where post season. To be scrambling to make the baseball tournament in a crap league speaks volumes. This isn't the SEC, ACC, Big 12 or Pac 12. This is CUSA....and Rice Baseball is almost in last place. When will Graham be held accountable for this mess?

Fact Check: Conference USA has been ranked (RPI) among the top five baseball conferences in eight of the last 11 seasons.
C-USA has placed at least four teams in the NCAA Championship 10 times in the past 15 years, producing five teams on two occasions.
Source: CUSA Media Guide

Don't believe everything you read. Look at the teams in the conference. Perhaps number 5 ranked conference by default but distant from the top 4.

Agree that someone should be accountable for allowing the baseball team to, at least at times and increasing in frequency, appear to be a conference doormat like some of our other programs.

Disagree that CUSA is an also ran in baseball. CUSA is terrible for football and MBB, but several years of decent baseball teams. FAU and SoMiss are legit top 25 teams this year and LaTech is not far behind. Depending on who wins the conference tourney, we could be a 3 team league this year which isn't too shabby. Even when Rice baseball was "good", we still would have had issues competing in a P5 conference like the Big 12 and SEC. A lot of years we looked better on paper since we could annihilate WAC teams who barely fielded a full roster and we saved aces for mid-week RPI boosters. Not a huge surprise that we under-performed in Omaha for several years.

CUSA may have been better in the recent past (and that's debatable, as you'll see below), but this year, it is down. First off, there's almost no chance this is a 3-bid league. There's only 4 teams in the top 100 of RPI at moment (FAU #18; USM #47; Louisiana Tech #68; UTSA #79), and if these RPIs stay relatively close to this and FAU wins the tournament, USM is probably not getting a bid and this is a 1-bid league. That's actually a more likely scenario than a 3-bid league.

As for the conference RPI measurement, it probably depends on which site you use, given that the NCAA doesn't publish conference RPIs, and I cannot find a site that says it uses the NCAA RPI data to figure out conference RPIs. I'm going to stick with Nolan for now, in part because I can get decent historical data, here's where he shows CUSA by rank, rating, and the rating for the #4 conference (for comparison sakes, because someone claimed there's usually a decent gap between top 4 conferences and the rest).

2017 #6 0.5271 0.5460 (#5 is actually above 0.54 as well)
2016 #5 0.5268 0.5368
2015 #8 0.5234 0.5382 (even #7 is above 0.53, and there is nearly .01 to get to CUSA)
2014 #8 0.5165 0.5351 (0.53 ends at #5)
2013 #10 0.5139 0.5399
2012 #6 0.5329 0.5435 (almost a whole .01 between #4 and #5)
2011 #5 0.5439 0.5561
2010 #5 0.5294 0.5633
2009 #5 0.5313 0.5340
2008 #5 0.5510 0.5649

As I noted earlier, CUSA is currently the #11 RPI conference, and I'm not sure how that improves much more this season, with so few non-conference games remaining. Maybe it can get to #10, but the jump from #10 to #9 is not small in the averages.

The trend is not kind to CUSA, and there's a reason it's gone from a 3-bid league to a 2-bid league. Last year, there were 8 teams in the top 100 of the RPI, and in 2016, there were 7 teams. But given this year's conference makeup and ratings, it's not looking good for anyone else if FAU wins the conference tourney.

On the point in the media guide about being outside the top 5 conference only 3 times, I guess it depends on what source you use. But Nolan seems to be using the NCAA RPI numbers (at least for this year), and he shows Rice out of it 5 times recently - with emphasis on the recent, considering it's been top 5 only once in the last 6 seasons.

(04-05-2018 07:06 AM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  

(04-05-2018 04:14 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 11:51 PM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 10:07 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 07:03 PM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  Guys, CUSA sucks. If you are not in either first or second in the league you are going no where post season. To be scrambling to make the baseball tournament in a crap league speaks volumes. This isn't the SEC, ACC, Big 12 or Pac 12. This is CUSA....and Rice Baseball is almost in last place. When will Graham be held accountable for this mess?

Fact Check: Conference USA has been ranked (RPI) among the top five baseball conferences in eight of the last 11 seasons.
C-USA has placed at least four teams in the NCAA Championship 10 times in the past 15 years, producing five teams on two occasions.
Source: CUSA Media Guide

Don't believe everything you read. Look at the teams in the conference. Perhaps number 5 ranked conference by default but distant from the top 4.

Agree that someone should be accountable for allowing the baseball team to, at least at times and increasing in frequency, appear to be a conference doormat like some of our other programs.

Disagree that CUSA is an also ran in baseball. CUSA is terrible for football and MBB, but several years of decent baseball teams. FAU and SoMiss are legit top 25 teams this year and LaTech is not far behind. Depending on who wins the conference tourney, we could be a 3 team league this year which isn't too shabby. Even when Rice baseball was "good", we still would have had issues competing in a P5 conference like the Big 12 and SEC. A lot of years we looked better on paper since we could annihilate WAC teams who barely fielded a full roster and we saved aces for mid-week RPI boosters. Not a huge surprise that we under-performed in Omaha for several years.

Kind of like the teams in the NCAA March Madness with great records from weaker conferences. Teams like Gonzaga will have inflated records.

Gonzaga may have inflated records but they also go to Final Fours.

(04-05-2018 08:51 AM)Owl1998 Wrote:  

(04-05-2018 07:06 AM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  

(04-05-2018 04:14 AM)flash3200 Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 11:51 PM)Bulldinkydurham Wrote:  

(04-04-2018 10:07 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Fact Check: Conference USA has been ranked (RPI) among the top five baseball conferences in eight of the last 11 seasons.
C-USA has placed at least four teams in the NCAA Championship 10 times in the past 15 years, producing five teams on two occasions.
Source: CUSA Media Guide

Don't believe everything you read. Look at the teams in the conference. Perhaps number 5 ranked conference by default but distant from the top 4.

Agree that someone should be accountable for allowing the baseball team to, at least at times and increasing in frequency, appear to be a conference doormat like some of our other programs.

Disagree that CUSA is an also ran in baseball. CUSA is terrible for football and MBB, but several years of decent baseball teams. FAU and SoMiss are legit top 25 teams this year and LaTech is not far behind. Depending on who wins the conference tourney, we could be a 3 team league this year which isn't too shabby. Even when Rice baseball was "good", we still would have had issues competing in a P5 conference like the Big 12 and SEC. A lot of years we looked better on paper since we could annihilate WAC teams who barely fielded a full roster and we saved aces for mid-week RPI boosters. Not a huge surprise that we under-performed in Omaha for several years.

Kind of like the teams in the NCAA March Madness with great records from weaker conferences. Teams like Gonzaga will have inflated records.

Gonzaga may have inflated records but they also go to Final Fours.

I think his point is we should have the ability to rack up a bunch of wins in conference. We used to go through conference with ease for the most part. That was also when the conference was much better. Until recently, I have been surprised that CUSA has not received more recognition for being a respectable baseball conference. However with the realignment CUSA has really become diluted....and we are performing worse and worse in this diluted conference.