Wasn't Virginia the overall #1 seed too? The Pac-12 and ACC are off to very rough starts in the NCAA tournament.

Mike's assignment for today is to find a correlation between UMBC and Rice in a Kevin Bacon-type connection to see how many wins we were removed from beating a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament this year.

(03-17-2018 06:25 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Wasn't Virginia the overall #1 seed too? The Pac-12 and ACC are off to very rough starts in the NCAA tournament.

Mike's assignment for today is to find a correlation between UMBC and Rice in a Kevin Bacon-type connection to see how many wins we were removed from beating a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament this year.

Not beating but MTSU crushed the best team from their conference (Vermont). Vermont beat UMBC 81-53 and 71-56 in the regular season. UMBC was not only a 16 beating the overall #1, they were a very very bad 16. They lost to Albany 83-39 this year. I don’t even think we could’ve done that.

(03-17-2018 06:25 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  The Pac-12 and ACC are off to very rough starts in the NCAA tournament.

The Pac-12 lost all of its teams in the first round. That is the first time that has happened to a P5 conference since the formation of the Big XII (ostensibly the start of the P5 era).

The ACC went 5-4. So that's not really comparable. Sure, Virginia lost, but Duke and UNC took care of business. The ACC is still a top basketball conference.

The ACC might lose more teams on Saturday and Sunday, sure. But it is leagues ahead of the Pac-12 right now.

(03-17-2018 06:40 AM)cr11owl Wrote:  UMBC was not only a 16 beating the overall #1, they were a very very bad 16.

I don't think they are particularly bad for a 16 seed. 24-10 with Sagarin 192 but a "recent" game ranking of 62 going into game. 16 seeds are often in this area or worse. I wonder where they will rank after this win.

There's also this:

People are comparing this game to the 1980 Lake Placid hockey game. Just... no. Sure, the USA had home ice in that game, but that was amateurs beating pros. That was very different. And the USA hockey team won the gold medal, which meant they kept their level up for the whole tournament (against a very powerful field at the time, no less). UMBC isn't going to win the NCAA Tournament.

A 16 was going to beat a 1 eventually. In these neutral court games, anything can happen. And we've been at this for, what, 40 years or so in this format? That is not a huge expanse of time. Really getting sick of the hyperbole.

That said, this was still a very big upset. Credit to UMBC. They got a piece of history in emphatic fashion.

Upsets are happening more and more in the NCAA tournament which kind of shows just how corrupt the selection and seeding process has become. My personal theory is that the one and done/yearly transfers have weakened the powerhouses overall and lessened the gap between P5 and mid-majors, but the selection process favors P5 even more than it did in decades past. Does the 9th team in the ACC really deserve it over the 2nd best team in a good mid-major? 4 years of the CUSA entry winning the 1st round including the huge MTSU upset has done nothing for getting this conference a 2nd team(In fact there was national debate about how messed up the selection process was the following year when even MTSU coming off the huge upset would not have gotten an at-large if they didn't win the CUSA tournament). It's become so common that the 5/12 upset is now all but expected every year by bracketologists. My question to the committee would be if the general expectation is that the 5 would lose to the 12, why is that team a 5 and why is the other team a 12?

In the 90's no conference, not even the ACC would get more than 5-6 teams into the tournament and I would argue that back then there was more dominance by the power conferences and fewer upsets.

Actually, it's been a bit of a statistical surprise that a 16 beating a 1 hasn't happened yet, if the rating/ranking engines are to be believed. I'll take 538's data, because I can pull its round by round chances as of 3/12.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/mar...ecasts.csv

Of the #1 seeds:

• Villanova had a 98.53% chance of winning
• Virginia had a 97.85% chance
• Xavier had a 97.78% chance
• Kansas had a 95.41% chance
  

Kansas's is a bit lower than normal, but #16 seeds typically have had 1 to 3 percent chances pretty much since the expansion to 64 teams. So even if the average chance is 2%, that means that a 16 seed should upset a 1 seed about every 12 to 13 years (on average). Considering it's taken almost 34 years, there is either a statistical anomaly or the rating software isn't handling the extreme imbalance between team results as well as it should.

(03-17-2018 10:17 AM)Wiessman Wrote:  but that was amateurs beating pros. That was very different.

You're assuming the Virginia players aren't getting paid

Jokes aside, Tony Bennett and his time can try and move on from this in their minds, but that doesn't change the fact that he will be the coach, they will be the players and Virginia will be the school that became the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed - and not just a close loss either; a massive blowout. He could win five ACC championships in a row and this will never erase this stain on their resumes. What a massive embarrassment.

(03-17-2018 08:17 AM)DFW Owl Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 06:40 AM)cr11owl Wrote:  UMBC was not only a 16 beating the overall #1, they were a very very bad 16.

I don't think they are particularly bad for a 16 seed. 24-10 with Sagarin 192 but a "recent" game ranking of 62 going into game. 16 seeds are often in this area or worse. I wonder where they will rank after this win.

UMBC jumped to 177 overall and 4 in the recent ranking. Virginia dropped to 8th.

(03-17-2018 12:40 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 10:17 AM)Wiessman Wrote:  but that was amateurs beating pros. That was very different.

You're assuming the Virginia players aren't getting paid

Jokes aside, Tony Bennett and his time can try and move on from this in their minds, but that doesn't change the fact that he will be the coach, they will be the players and Virginia will be the school that became the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed - and not just a close loss either; a massive blowout. He could win five ACC championships in a row and this will never erase this stain on their resumes. What a massive embarrassment.

The blowout part is what is crazy. A good team can get into a dogfight with a less good one and sometimes crazy stuff happens.

This was a clinical annihilation. UVa was just outplayed.

And Chaminade before.

UH in a dogfight with Michigan late in the 2nd half.

Wow UH looking to close it out.

Two free throws to win it, misses both. Oof.

Michigan about to get one last shot.

Wow.

Well then...nevermind.

(03-17-2018 11:18 PM)Wiessman Wrote:  Wow.

Talk about coogin it

(03-17-2018 11:18 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(03-17-2018 11:18 PM)Wiessman Wrote:  Wow.

Talk about coogin it

Yep. They had every chance to win it.

2 missed layups by Michigan should have sent UH to the Sweet 16....BUT UH Coogs it with 2 missed FT’s and a 2 pass to shooter for 3 about 25 feet out with 3.4 wins it for Michigan.
Sampson’s failure to put someone on the inbounds passer was a huge mistake.

I was pulling for UH. Had them winning in my bracket. Gotta hit your free throws!