I'm not really sure this warrants a separate thread but we have a thread devoted to CAA transfers (and each team's message board has a thread dedicated to their recruiting) but I can't find a central location for "organic" team turnover from graduation.

This only addresses players who have used up their eligibility and those key players who are expected to return next year. I have tried by and large to limit key departures and returnees to players who averaged 20 minutes or more per game. This is taking a hacksaw to a process which should require a scalpel but I don't know the teams well enough to use any other approach. For returnees I am listing them by CURRENT class year so that, for example, those who are listed as juniors should be seniors in 2018-19. I am listing them in part so that those who want to look past 2018-19 to 2019-20 can see what other teams already have a strong foundation in their sophomore and freshman classes.

There are two fundamental flaws with this list. One, it is premature. I expect there will some significant transfers out of the conference. Two, it lacks insight into the talent already leaving or present. For example, if I have done this last year, Pierce would not have identified as a key returnee (although we W&M fans subjectively knew he was) because he didn't have the minutes. Similarly, Sabety is not listed as a key loss for Hofstra though I believe he is their backup center which leaves a gaping hole in their middle which they are frantically trying to fill.

Finally, why am I doing this? Because the media does't cover CAA MBB (except for Brian Mull and his successor) and the media publications next year won't accurately provide this information. This probably isn't accurate but I tried.

COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON
Key Graduation Losses: Joe Chealey, Cameron Johnson
Key Returnees: Darrell Brantley (Jr.), Nick Harris (Jr.), Marquise Pointer (Jr.), Grant Riller (So.)

NORTHEASTERN
Key Graduation Losses: Devon Begley
Key Returnees: Vasa Pusica (Jr.), Anthony Green (Jr.), Shawn Occeus (So.), Bold Brace (So.), Donnell Gresham (So.), Thomas Murphy (Fr.)

HOFSTRA
Key Graduation Losses: Rokas Gustys
Key Returnees: Justin Wright-Foreman (Jr.), Desure Buie (Jr.), Eli Pemberton (So.), Jalen Ray (Fr.)

TOWSON
Key Graduation Losses: Mike Morsell, Eddie Keith, Brian Starr, Deshaun Morman (suspended)
Key Returnees: Zane Martin (So.), Justin Gorham (So.)

W&M
Key Graduation Losses: David Cohn, Connor Burchfield
Key Returnees: Nathan Knight (So.), Justin Pierce (So.), Matt Milon (So.)

UNCW
Key Graduation Losses: Jordan Talley, Marcus Bryan
Key Returnees: Devontae Cacock (Jr.), Ty Taylor (So.), Jaylen Fornes (So.), Jay Estime (Fr.)

ELON
Key Graduation Losses: Dimitri Thompson, Brian Dawkins
Key Returnees: Tyler Seibring (Jr.), Danian Swoope (Jr.), Steve Santa Ana (Jr.), Sheldon Eberhardt (Jr.)

DELAWARE
Key Graduation Losses: Anthony Mosley
Key Returnees: Eric Carter (Jr.), Darian Bryant (Jr.), Ryan Daly (So.), Ryan Allen (Fr.), Kevin Anderson (Fr.)

DREXEL
Key Graduation Losses: Sammy Mojica, Austin Williams
Key Returnees: Troy Harper (Jr.), Kurk Lee (So.), Alihan Demir (So.), Tramaine Isabell (So.)

JMU
Key Graduation Losses: Joey McLean, Ramone Snowden
Key Returnees: Stuckey Mosley (Jr.), Develle Phillips (Jr.), Matt Lewis (Fr.), Darius Banks (Fr.)

I expect there are errors here so I would appreciate corrections. I am NOT at this point interested in identifying the players who someone knows "subjectively" will have an impact. I know there are Pusicas out there but I don't have the bandwidth at present to develop a process to handle that.

Team Win Shares by Freshmen:

JMU: 5.8 (6 players)
Delaware: 3.1 (4 players)
Northeastern: 1.8 (4 players)
Hofstra: 1.5 (2 players)
Drexel: .8 (4 players)
CofC: .5 (3 players)
Elon: .1 (3 players)
Towson: 0 (2 players)
W&M: 0 (2 players)
UNCW: -.2 (1 player)

Team Win Shares by Sophomores:

Northeastern: 11.4 (4 players)
W&M: 10.1 (4 players)
Towson: 8.8 (3 players)
CofC: 6.1 (2 players)
Hofstra: 4.2 (3 players)
Delaware: 3.5 (3 players)
Drexel: 3.3 (2 players)
UNCW: 3.3 (2 players)
JMU: .1 (2 players)
Elon: 0 (1 player)

Team Win Shares by Juniors:

Northeastern: 8.2 (3 players)
Elon: 7.1 (4 players)
Hofstra: 6.0 (3 players)
JMU: 5.6 (2 players)
Drexel: 4.6 (2 players)
UNCW: 4.4 (5 players)
CofC: 4.2 (2 players)
Delaware: 3.2 (3 players)
Towson: 2.2 (2 players)
W&M: 0.9 (1 player)

Team Win Shares by Seniors:

Towson: 9.2 (5 players)
CofC: 8.6 (3 players)
W&M: 6.8 (4 players)
Hofstra: 5.4 (3 players)
Elon: 4.9 (5 players)
Drexel: 4.3 (4 players)
UNCW: 4.2 (3 players)
Delaware: 3.6 (2 players)
JMU: 2.4 (3 players)
Northeastern: 1.4 (1 player)

Depending on what happens with transfers Northeastern looks to be the team to beat next year. W&M has their most productive class coming back but loses a lot. If you're optimistic you say that the freshmen didn't produce because the seniors played well. If you're a pessimist you say the freshmen didn't force the issue with their play. The truth is in the middle.

And when you add up the team win shares from the freshman, sophomore, and junior classes:

21.4 Northeastern
11.7 Hofstra
11.5 JMU
11 Towson and WM
10.8 CofC
9.8 Delaware
8.7 Drexel
7.5 UNCW
7.2 Elon

Just for fun, here's the team win shares of freshmen, sophomores and juniors from 2016-17 (I tried to indicate in the totals if it came from people who left before the 2017-18 season, but it's very incomplete):

CoC: 21.5
Towson: 17.7 (Adala Mofa had 3.2, and he left for Europe)
Elon: 16.6
UNCW: 14.3 (4.6 from Bryce)
Hofstra: 11.8
W&M: 11.6 (2.6 were from Whitman, 1.1 from Malinowski)
Drexel: 8.9 (2.0 from Jonsson, who left the team)
Northeastern: 8.3
Delaware: 7.7 (1.0 from Corbett, who transferred)
JMU: 4.0

Charleston brought back the most talent and won the league. JMU brought back the least and was at the bottom. Northeastern got a big bump from Pusica and saw some young guys take leaps. I don't know what happened to Elon.

(03-14-2018 10:01 AM)WillaMary08 Wrote:  And when you add up the team win shares from the freshman, sophomore, and junior classes:

21.4 Northeastern
11.7 Hofstra
11.5 JMU
11 Towson and WM
10.8 CofC
9.8 Delaware
8.7 Drexel
7.5 UNCW
7.2 Elon

That's fascinating. I think we all know that NE will be the cream of the league next year, and I would expect they'll be predicted to win the league. And we all know that W&M will be picked 9th again... whatever.

I agree the league next year likely will be the strongest ever since all of the reallignment. Next season should be a lot of fun.

Coach Brian is leading the guys back.

(03-14-2018 10:01 AM)WillaMary08 Wrote:  And when you add up the team win shares from the freshman, sophomore, and junior classes:

21.4 Northeastern
11.7 Hofstra
11.5 JMU
11 Towson and WM
10.8 CofC
9.8 Delaware
8.7 Drexel
7.5 UNCW
7.2 Elon

So take out Wright-Foreman’s 4.5 WS (and add senior Angus’ .9 WS since he still has eligibility I believe) and you get this:

21.4 Northeastern
11.5 JMU
11 Towson and WM
10.8 CofC
9.8 Delaware
8.7 Drexel
8.1 Hofstra
7.5 UNCW
7.2 Elon

(03-22-2018 04:02 PM)WillaMary08 Wrote:  

(03-14-2018 10:01 AM)WillaMary08 Wrote:  And when you add up the team win shares from the freshman, sophomore, and junior classes:

21.4 Northeastern
11.7 Hofstra
11.5 JMU
11 Towson and WM
10.8 CofC
9.8 Delaware
8.7 Drexel
7.5 UNCW
7.2 Elon

So take out Wright-Foreman’s 4.5 WS (and add senior Angus’ .9 WS since he still has eligibility I believe) and you get this:

21.4 Northeastern
11.5 JMU
11 Towson and WM
10.8 CofC
9.8 Delaware
8.7 Drexel
8.1 Hofstra
7.5 UNCW
7.2 Elon

Now take out Daly’s 3.0 WS:

21.4 Northeastern
11.5 JMU
11 Towson and WM
10.8 CofC
8.7 Drexel
8.1 Hofstra
7.5 UNCW
7.2 Elon
6.8 Delaware