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We have conference championships every night this week, major conference tournaments have begun and the NCAA tournament coming soon. I thought I'd start a thread for talk about games and other things March Madness related.

I'll start it with my annual ranking of the bubble. I'll have some bracket predictions later this week.

https://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2018/03...ubble.html

Ranking the Bubble
Every year I like to give you a little preview of the teams on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. Every year people tell us the bubble is weak, but it's really always the same type of flawed teams. This is how I think the committee will handle the bubble, not what I would do. I wish we valued predictive metrics a little more and teams like St Marys, Penn State and Louisville received a little bump. Bringing it night after night matters to me. I'd have all three in if that were the case. However, right now I think St Marys is in but should be scared, Louisville is basically a coinflip without doing more work and Penn State is definitively out. I rank the bubble based on what I think the committee will do, based on their history. The story is that the committee is transitioning how they do this, but until I see otherwise I'm still mostly going to focus on the metrics we see on teamsheets and give disproportionate weight to the awful rating system we know as RPI. I'll have bracket predictions coming later this week.

And with that, here is my ranking of teams on the bubble. My last 4 in right now are UCLA, Syracuse, Louisville and Baylor. You'll notice Middle Tennessee State sandwiched in that group. I have them winning the CUSA tournament, but if they don't I'd probably still have them holding onto a bid and bumping Baylor out. Of course that can all change this week as almost all of these teams (throwing out Penn State and St Marys) have chances to improve their resumes and improve their position relative to the others. Should be a fun week.


Kansas State- 3-7 in their tier 1 games, 6-3 in tier two games and 12-0 against everyone else. Kansas State is a team that took care of business in all its games it really should have won and put up enough wins against the best teams on their schedule that they should make the tournament. A really solid team. They finished 4th in the incredibly deep big 12 against a true round robin schedule. I see no way they get left out at this point.

Texas- I think the Big 12 is going to appropriately be given a ton of respect by the committee. The league is incredibly deep. Only 1 team is outside the top 57 in kenpom (Iowa State at 104). That means night after night is a battle. Texas played 15 tier 1 games and went 5-10 in those games. They went 3-3 against tier 2 teams and didn’t stumble at all in their 6 tier 3 and 4 games. Texas has wins over WVU, TCU, Texas Tech, Butler and a sweep of Oklahoma. Most of their tier 1 losses are to protected seed type teams. (Duke, Michigan, Kansas twice, WVU, Texas Tech, Gonzaga and TCU all have a case depending how this week goes). Objectively, Texas is a tournament caliber team.

Providence- This is a team that probably has done enough by the committee’s traditional metrics, but they are likely to be the weakest at large team in the field. Providence sits at 72 in kenpom. They have 12 losses including 3 tier 4 losses to Umass (242 RPI), Minnesota (166 RPI) and Depaul (179 RPI). However, they are in a conference that plays the RPI game really well, they played the RPI game well and they have enough big wins to put them over the top. They are 3-8 against tier 1 and 5-1 against tier 2. If the committee decides to better incorporate our best metrics, Providence is likely staying home, but until then I think they make it.

St Marys- Another team lacking a great traditional resume. I hope their reasonably strong predictive metrics (29 kenpom) and a couple nice wins are enough to get them in, but that loss to BYU puts them in a bit more precarious position. They are 2-1 in tier 1 games and 2-2 in tier 2 games. They have 2 tier 3 losses as well. They piled up 24 of their 28 wins in tier 3 and 4 games. That can be life as a mid-major, so I hope the committee gives weight to a pretty good performance in the few big games they had including a win at Gonzaga and their good predictive metrics, but this is the kind of small conference bubble team that is often left on the outside looking in. I have them in, but they won’t sleep easy.

UCLA- A team I’m probably higher on than most bracket predictors, because of the strong wins they have assembled. UCLA is 3-7 in tier 1 games and 5-1 in tier 2 games. They have a neutral sight win at Kentucky, a road win at Arizona and swept USC home and away. They lost some road games to middling Pac 12 teams, but I don’t think that will be enough to keep them out.

Middle Tennessee State- I personally think this team should be in but they don’t have the kind of wins the committee likes so it end up going either way. Dominant in their conference. 2-3 v. tier 1, 3-1 v. tier 2. Really competitive games against 2 definite tournament teams (Auburn and Miami) and one bubble team (USC). Problem is their best wins are probably Murray State, Vandy, Old Dominion and Western Kentucky. Better small conference resumes have been left out before. Win the CUSA tournament and it won’t matter.

Syracuse- It seems they are always on the bubble and this year is no different. Syracuse finished with a losing record in the ACC, but did manage to go 3-7 against tier 1 teams and 3-3 against tier 2. Their 2 “bad losses” were in conference and on the road against Wake and Georgia Tech. Unlike last year, Syracuse was able to get a couple big wins out of the state of New York beating Louisville and Miami on the road. I think this will be the difference in them getting left out last year and being one of the last teams in this year. Additionally, their tier 1 losses are really difficult tier 1 games… (Kansas, Virginia twice, UNC and @Duke among those).

Louisville – The good for Louisville is they went 15-0 against the tier 3 and 4 teams, so they don’t have any bad losses. The problem is they were only 3-10 against tier 1 teams and 1-2 against tier two teams. Their wins include a sweep of Virginia Tech, a solid tournament team, but nothing more and win over Florida State who many have on the bubble (I think they are in). To their credit their losses are almost all to really good, often protected seed type teams, but unless they go deep in the ACC tournament I think you’ll see Louisville among the last 4 in or first 4 out. If the committee looks at all to advance metrics Louisville could get a bump, 34 kenpom is really good for a bubble team.

Baylor- Another big 12 team that played a brutal schedule and racked up enough big wins to be on the bubble. Baylor has wins over protected seed type teams in Kansas and Texas Tech. They have a sweep of bubble Texas to go with a Neutral sight win over Creighton and a home win over Oklahoma. They finished 8-10 in the Big 12. I have as my last team in, but they are certainly a team that could put themselves on the right side of the bubble this week. They have 5 tier 1 wins and 11 tier 1 losses. Only 2 of their losses were not tier 1.

USC- Another PAC 12 bubble team. They have better RPI numbers than UCLA, but I have them behind UCLA because of the UCLA sweep and the fact that when you look at the actual wins, UCLA just has better ones than USC. USC has a win over Middle Tennessee St and New Mexico State as well as a sweep of Utah. None of those teams are surefire tournament teams, in fact I’d say Middle Tennessee St. has the best shot among those. I have them as my first team out right now, with work to do.

Alabama- This is a team that really crashed into the finish line. They now have 14 losses and only went 8-10 in the SEC. To their credit they have 6 tier 1 wins and 8 tier 1 losses. That’s a strong record in that sense. Their problem is they have bad losses to Minnesota, Vandy and Ole Miss and some other nontournament team losses to UCF, @Georgia and @Mississippi State. That tier 1 record gives them hope, but I think they have work to do in the SEC tournament.

Marquette- Marquette is 4-7 against tier 1 teams and 4-3 against tier 2 teams. They have a bad loss to Depaul, but other than that have mostly avoided bad losses. Their biggest strength is a sweep of Seton Hall and a Sweep of Creighton. Both teams are solidly in. They have zero wins against top 25 teams, so objectively I just don’t think their wins are as good as some of these other teams around the bubble. That said, a couple of wins in New York and they will likely find themselves on the other side.

Washington – They have three really nice wins. They won at Kansas, at USC and they beat Arizona. They are 3-6 against tier 1 teams and 2-4 against tier 2 teams. They are one of a handful of teams in the PAC 12 that can really help themselves in getting a bid come selection Sunday. Right now they are still on the outside looking in.

Penn State- This is a team with a good case to be in the field, but their traditional metrics will most likely keep them out. Most these bubble teams are sub 40 kenpom with many far lower. Penn State sits at 30 exactly. Penn State’s problem is they have 13 losses and an RPI of 80. That’s ugly and not a resume you see get in the tournament. They have 3 tier 1 wins but every one of them is against Ohio State. Frankly, though a tournament type team that would be a scary lower seed for whoever drew them, they don’t have the resume and will almost assuredly be left out.

Notre Dame- I’ve seen them listed as a bubble team by several. They need a run to the finals of the ACC tournament. They simply have not done enough. Wins over Wichita State, Florida State, NC State and Syracuse are nice, but don’t combat 13 losses including losings to Georgia Tech, Ball State and Indiana. They only have 2 tier 1 wins.

Oklahoma State- Another team that technically isn’t out, but wouldn’t be in today. They have 6 tier 1 wins including a great sweep of Kansas and a win at West Virginia. 8-10 in that Big 12 is also nothing to sneeze it. They also have no bad losses. Their big problem is the committee isn’t letting in an at large team with an RPI of 87. Oklahoma State needs to probably make the finals of the Big 12 tournament to have a shot.

Utah- Decent RPI numbers but not a whole lot else. Missouri, Arizona State and UCLA are the only tournament caliber teams they beat this season. They have a bad loss to UNLV, losses to BYU, Arizona State and Colorado and they were swept by USC, the PAC 12 bubble team with the most similar profile. A trip to the conference tournament finals opens the door, but short of that I just don’t see it.

Boise State – 1-2 vs. tier 1 teams and 4-2 vs. Tier 2 teams. They are the only Mountain West team with an at large chance not named Nevada. Their problem is that of their tier 1 wins the only one against an at large caliber team was against Loyola-Chicago. I think they have to win the Mountain West tournament, but they are at least in the discussion.

Mississippi State- They wouldn’t be in today, but the SEC is deep enough that they can add some big wins and put themselves in the discussion with a run to the finals. They have 3 tier 1 wins, but none are particularly noteworthy. They’ve mostly lost to the best teams on their schedule, often by large margins. They aren’t dead, but they like a few of the teams above them, need to do some real work this week.

Temple – They probably killed their chances with their two losses to end the season. They have too many bad losses… @LaSalle, George Washington, Tulane, Memphis, @UConn….that’s a pile of losses to really mediocre teams. However, they do have wins over Auburn, Clemson and Wichita State. A run to the finals of the AAC will likely give them neutral floor wins over Houston and Wichita State. Do that and maybe the committee rewards their really strong strength of schedule. I don’t think so because of the bad losses, but you never know.

(03-06-2018 07:28 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  We have conference championships every night this week, major conference tournaments have begun and the NCAA tournament coming soon. I thought I'd start a thread for talk about games and other things March Madness related.

I'll start it with my annual ranking of the bubble. I'll have some bracket predictions later this week.

https://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2018/03...ubble.html

Ranking the Bubble
Every year I like to give you a little preview of the teams on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. Every year people tell us the bubble is weak, but it's really always the same type of flawed teams. This is how I think the committee will handle the bubble, not what I would do. I wish we valued predictive metrics a little more and teams like St Marys, Penn State and Louisville received a little bump. Bringing it night after night matters to me. I'd have all three in if that were the case. However, right now I think St Marys is in but should be scared, Louisville is basically a coinflip without doing more work and Penn State is definitively out. I rank the bubble based on what I think the committee will do, based on their history. The story is that the committee is transitioning how they do this, but until I see otherwise I'm still mostly going to focus on the metrics we see on teamsheets and give disproportionate weight to the awful rating system we know as RPI. I'll have bracket predictions coming later this week.

And with that, here is my ranking of teams on the bubble. My last 4 in right now are UCLA, Syracuse, Louisville and Baylor. You'll notice Middle Tennessee State sandwiched in that group. I have them winning the CUSA tournament, but if they don't I'd probably still have them holding onto a bid and bumping Baylor out. Of course that can all change this week as almost all of these teams (throwing out Penn State and St Marys) have chances to improve their resumes and improve their position relative to the others. Should be a fun week.


Kansas State- 3-7 in their tier 1 games, 6-3 in tier two games and 12-0 against everyone else. Kansas State is a team that took care of business in all its games it really should have won and put up enough wins against the best teams on their schedule that they should make the tournament. A really solid team. They finished 4th in the incredibly deep big 12 against a true round robin schedule. I see no way they get left out at this point.

Texas- I think the Big 12 is going to appropriately be given a ton of respect by the committee. The league is incredibly deep. Only 1 team is outside the top 57 in kenpom (Iowa State at 104). That means night after night is a battle. Texas played 15 tier 1 games and went 5-10 in those games. They went 3-3 against tier 2 teams and didn’t stumble at all in their 6 tier 3 and 4 games. Texas has wins over WVU, TCU, Texas Tech, Butler and a sweep of Oklahoma. Most of their tier 1 losses are to protected seed type teams. (Duke, Michigan, Kansas twice, WVU, Texas Tech, Gonzaga and TCU all have a case depending how this week goes). Objectively, Texas is a tournament caliber team.

Providence- This is a team that probably has done enough by the committee’s traditional metrics, but they are likely to be the weakest at large team in the field. Providence sits at 72 in kenpom. They have 12 losses including 3 tier 4 losses to Umass (242 RPI), Minnesota (166 RPI) and Depaul (179 RPI). However, they are in a conference that plays the RPI game really well, they played the RPI game well and they have enough big wins to put them over the top. They are 3-8 against tier 1 and 5-1 against tier 2. If the committee decides to better incorporate our best metrics, Providence is likely staying home, but until then I think they make it.

St Marys- Another team lacking a great traditional resume. I hope their reasonably strong predictive metrics (29 kenpom) and a couple nice wins are enough to get them in, but that loss to BYU puts them in a bit more precarious position. They are 2-1 in tier 1 games and 2-2 in tier 2 games. They have 2 tier 3 losses as well. They piled up 24 of their 28 wins in tier 3 and 4 games. That can be life as a mid-major, so I hope the committee gives weight to a pretty good performance in the few big games they had including a win at Gonzaga and their good predictive metrics, but this is the kind of small conference bubble team that is often left on the outside looking in. I have them in, but they won’t sleep easy.

UCLA- A team I’m probably higher on than most bracket predictors, because of the strong wins they have assembled. UCLA is 3-7 in tier 1 games and 5-1 in tier 2 games. They have a neutral sight win at Kentucky, a road win at Arizona and swept USC home and away. They lost some road games to middling Pac 12 teams, but I don’t think that will be enough to keep them out.

Middle Tennessee State- I personally think this team should be in but they don’t have the kind of wins the committee likes so it end up going either way. Dominant in their conference. 2-3 v. tier 1, 3-1 v. tier 2. Really competitive games against 2 definite tournament teams (Auburn and Miami) and one bubble team (USC). Problem is their best wins are probably Murray State, Vandy, Old Dominion and Western Kentucky. Better small conference resumes have been left out before. Win the CUSA tournament and it won’t matter.

Syracuse- It seems they are always on the bubble and this year is no different. Syracuse finished with a losing record in the ACC, but did manage to go 3-7 against tier 1 teams and 3-3 against tier 2. Their 2 “bad losses” were in conference and on the road against Wake and Georgia Tech. Unlike last year, Syracuse was able to get a couple big wins out of the state of New York beating Louisville and Miami on the road. I think this will be the difference in them getting left out last year and being one of the last teams in this year. Additionally, their tier 1 losses are really difficult tier 1 games… (Kansas, Virginia twice, UNC and @Duke among those).

Louisville – The good for Louisville is they went 15-0 against the tier 3 and 4 teams, so they don’t have any bad losses. The problem is they were only 3-10 against tier 1 teams and 1-2 against tier two teams. Their wins include a sweep of Virginia Tech, a solid tournament team, but nothing more and win over Florida State who many have on the bubble (I think they are in). To their credit their losses are almost all to really good, often protected seed type teams, but unless they go deep in the ACC tournament I think you’ll see Louisville among the last 4 in or first 4 out. If the committee looks at all to advance metrics Louisville could get a bump, 34 kenpom is really good for a bubble team.

Baylor- Another big 12 team that played a brutal schedule and racked up enough big wins to be on the bubble. Baylor has wins over protected seed type teams in Kansas and Texas Tech. They have a sweep of bubble Texas to go with a Neutral sight win over Creighton and a home win over Oklahoma. They finished 8-10 in the Big 12. I have as my last team in, but they are certainly a team that could put themselves on the right side of the bubble this week. They have 5 tier 1 wins and 11 tier 1 losses. Only 2 of their losses were not tier 1.

USC- Another PAC 12 bubble team. They have better RPI numbers than UCLA, but I have them behind UCLA because of the UCLA sweep and the fact that when you look at the actual wins, UCLA just has better ones than USC. USC has a win over Middle Tennessee St and New Mexico State as well as a sweep of Utah. None of those teams are surefire tournament teams, in fact I’d say Middle Tennessee St. has the best shot among those. I have them as my first team out right now, with work to do.

Alabama- This is a team that really crashed into the finish line. They now have 14 losses and only went 8-10 in the SEC. To their credit they have 6 tier 1 wins and 8 tier 1 losses. That’s a strong record in that sense. Their problem is they have bad losses to Minnesota, Vandy and Ole Miss and some other nontournament team losses to UCF, @Georgia and @Mississippi State. That tier 1 record gives them hope, but I think they have work to do in the SEC tournament.

Marquette- Marquette is 4-7 against tier 1 teams and 4-3 against tier 2 teams. They have a bad loss to Depaul, but other than that have mostly avoided bad losses. Their biggest strength is a sweep of Seton Hall and a Sweep of Creighton. Both teams are solidly in. They have zero wins against top 25 teams, so objectively I just don’t think their wins are as good as some of these other teams around the bubble. That said, a couple of wins in New York and they will likely find themselves on the other side.

Washington – They have three really nice wins. They won at Kansas, at USC and they beat Arizona. They are 3-6 against tier 1 teams and 2-4 against tier 2 teams. They are one of a handful of teams in the PAC 12 that can really help themselves in getting a bid come selection Sunday. Right now they are still on the outside looking in.

Penn State- This is a team with a good case to be in the field, but their traditional metrics will most likely keep them out. Most these bubble teams are sub 40 kenpom with many far lower. Penn State sits at 30 exactly. Penn State’s problem is they have 13 losses and an RPI of 80. That’s ugly and not a resume you see get in the tournament. They have 3 tier 1 wins but every one of them is against Ohio State. Frankly, though a tournament type team that would be a scary lower seed for whoever drew them, they don’t have the resume and will almost assuredly be left out.

Notre Dame- I’ve seen them listed as a bubble team by several. They need a run to the finals of the ACC tournament. They simply have not done enough. Wins over Wichita State, Florida State, NC State and Syracuse are nice, but don’t combat 13 losses including losings to Georgia Tech, Ball State and Indiana. They only have 2 tier 1 wins.

Oklahoma State- Another team that technically isn’t out, but wouldn’t be in today. They have 6 tier 1 wins including a great sweep of Kansas and a win at West Virginia. 8-10 in that Big 12 is also nothing to sneeze it. They also have no bad losses. Their big problem is the committee isn’t letting in an at large team with an RPI of 87. Oklahoma State needs to probably make the finals of the Big 12 tournament to have a shot.

Utah- Decent RPI numbers but not a whole lot else. Missouri, Arizona State and UCLA are the only tournament caliber teams they beat this season. They have a bad loss to UNLV, losses to BYU, Arizona State and Colorado and they were swept by USC, the PAC 12 bubble team with the most similar profile. A trip to the conference tournament finals opens the door, but short of that I just don’t see it.

Boise State – 1-2 vs. tier 1 teams and 4-2 vs. Tier 2 teams. They are the only Mountain West team with an at large chance not named Nevada. Their problem is that of their tier 1 wins the only one against an at large caliber team was against Loyola-Chicago. I think they have to win the Mountain West tournament, but they are at least in the discussion.

Mississippi State- They wouldn’t be in today, but the SEC is deep enough that they can add some big wins and put themselves in the discussion with a run to the finals. They have 3 tier 1 wins, but none are particularly noteworthy. They’ve mostly lost to the best teams on their schedule, often by large margins. They aren’t dead, but they like a few of the teams above them, need to do some real work this week.

Temple – They probably killed their chances with their two losses to end the season. They have too many bad losses… @LaSalle, George Washington, Tulane, Memphis, @UConn….that’s a pile of losses to really mediocre teams. However, they do have wins over Auburn, Clemson and Wichita State. A run to the finals of the AAC will likely give them neutral floor wins over Houston and Wichita State. Do that and maybe the committee rewards their really strong strength of schedule. I don’t think so because of the bad losses, but you never know.

Mark, I'm looking forward to reading your breakdown. I am just not mentally prepared right now, but I can tell there is some good stuff in there. I love conference tourney week, almost as.much as the 1st round Thurs/Friday of the big tournament.

Mark,

Where do you have Arizona State. I have seen them listed on the bubble due to their 8-10 PAC-12 record. I think as long they don't lose their first game in the tournament they should be ok. Actually I am much higher on the PAC-12 bubble team's chances than most are. The PAC-12 has a rep on the committee and the conference tournament is set up where at least three of their bubble teams are likely to going to pick some solid wins. I am also much lower on the Big XII as they don't have committee rep this year, more specifically Baylor is in the most trouble. Louisville is done without a serious run the ACC tournament. I can't see the poster child for NCAA scandals and the FBI investigation getting an at large bid if they don't have to give it to them.

Overall I have that league as the following:

1. Arizona 4 or 5 seed.
2. UCLA solidly with one conference tournament win.
3. Arizona State in with one conference tournament win.
4. USC lock with a run to the tournament finals, First Four with a trip to the semifinals
5. Utah almost the same as USC
6. Washington in with a trip to Finals.
7. Oregon, might be in with a trip to the Finals
8. Stanford, might be in with a trip to Finals as those wins include UCLA and Arizona.

(03-06-2018 09:48 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Mark,

Where do you have Arizona State. I have seen them listed on the bubble due to their 8-10 PAC-12 record. I think as long they don't lose their first game in the tournament they should be ok. Actually I am much higher on the PAC-12 bubble team's chances than most are. The PAC-12 has a rep on the committee and the conference tournament is set up where at least three of their bubble teams are likely to going to pick some solid wins. I am also much lower on the Big XII as they don't have committee rep this year, more specifically Baylor is in the most trouble. Louisville is done without a serious run the ACC tournament. I can't see the poster child for NCAA scandals and the FBI investigation getting an at large bid if they don't have to give it to them.

You try to factor in politics far more than me. I can think of specific examples where i think having someone on the committee matters but i think that part of it is really hard to predict. I think the committee really does take its job seriously and that's why looking at resumes you can consistently predict who will be in pretty accurately.

Arizona State i think is solidly in... despite trying to screw themselves (much like Oklahoma).

Any chance this will be released on audio book prior to Selection Sunday? I’d love to listen.

(03-06-2018 10:12 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(03-06-2018 09:48 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Mark,

Where do you have Arizona State. I have seen them listed on the bubble due to their 8-10 PAC-12 record. I think as long they don't lose their first game in the tournament they should be ok. Actually I am much higher on the PAC-12 bubble team's chances than most are. The PAC-12 has a rep on the committee and the conference tournament is set up where at least three of their bubble teams are likely to going to pick some solid wins. I am also much lower on the Big XII as they don't have committee rep this year, more specifically Baylor is in the most trouble. Louisville is done without a serious run the ACC tournament. I can't see the poster child for NCAA scandals and the FBI investigation getting an at large bid if they don't have to give it to them.

You try to factor in politics far more than me. I can think of specific examples where i think having someone on the committee matters but i think that part of it is really hard to predict. I think the committee really does take its job seriously and that's why looking at resumes you can consistently predict who will be in pretty accurately.

Arizona State i think is solidly in... despite trying to screw themselves (much like Oklahoma).

A committee is political just by its very nature. I believe politics and relationships have more influence at the bottom of the bracket when it time to vote on the last few teams in. It might also determine seeding at the top this year when things are really close. From a UC standpoint, I would be concerned if the Cats don't win at least two this week that Nashville, Detroit, or Pittsburgh are off the table. Actually, Pittsburgh being a Thursday/Saturday location will be off the table if UC makes it to conference tournament final as the committee usually gives those teams a Friday/Sunday site.

My concern is how much pressure there will be in the committee room to give Detroit to the two top Big Ten teams even though I believe UC is still ahead of Michigan State and Michigan at the moment and really close with Purdue. When the two polls had Michigan and Michigan State ahead of Cincinnati this week I knew it was possible that committee could easily slot those two ahead of the Bearcats without having to justify their selection. Pittsburgh is going to have Villanova and Xavier based on the fact the Big East tournament finishes up on Saturday. Charlotte is going to be the home of Virginia and most likely Duke. That would leave UNC, Cincinnati, Auburn, and Tennessee fighting for Nashville.

If UC wins out and finishes 30-4 there is no way that UC doesn't earn a "local" pod this year as the Cats would ahead of the Big Ten's top there teams.

The committee already told us what they think of Sparty, right? Since then have they done a lot to change perception? We got our best win of the year since then, I can't imagine they'd get a preferred location over us.

(03-07-2018 08:26 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  The committee already told us what they think of Sparty, right? Since then have they done a lot to change perception? We got our best win of the year since then, I can't imagine they'd get a preferred location over us.

I agree with you on Michigan State. They did win the Big Ten outright which is worth something but overall both Michigan schools have a sub-200 non-conference SOS. Usually those schools drop a seed line baed on that number.

My first bracket projection for those interested:

Conference Tournament Champions in Bold



1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas



2 Seeds: Duke, Cincinnati, Purdue, UNC



3 Seeds: Michigan State, Auburn, Tennessee, Wichita State



4 Seeds: Michigan, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Gonzaga



5 Seeds: Arizona, Clemson, Houston, Ohio State



6 Seeds: Miami (fl), Florida, Kentucky, TCU



7 Seeds: Arkansas, Nevada, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall



8 Seeds: Missouri, Texas A&M, St Bona, Rhode Island



9 Seeds: Butler, Creighton, Florida State, NC State



10 Seeds: Oklahoma, Arizona State, Kansas State, Texas



11 Seeds: Providence, UCLA, St. Marys/Louisville, Middle Tennessee St.



12 Seeds: Syracuse/Baylor, Loyola-Chicago, South Dakota State, Buffalo



13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Louisiana Lafayette, Vermont, Murray State



14 Seeds: Charleston, UC Santa Barbara, Bucknell, Montana



15 Seeds: Penn, UNC Greensboro, Radford, Wright State



16 Seeds: Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Lipscomb / Texas Southern, LIU Brooklyn / Hampton



Last 4 At Large: St Marys, Syracuse, Louisville, Baylor

Next 4 Out: USC, Alabama, Marquette, Washington

Lurking: Notre Dame, Oklahoma St., Utah, Boise State, Mississippi State, LSU

Season over and likely out: Penn State, Nebraska



I think the first 3 one seeds are set in stone barring a big upset loss in the first game of the Big East tournament for Xavier. I think Kansas and Duke are battling for the forth one seed. Kansas has the inside track if they win the Big 12 tournament. Duke winning the ACC tournament and somebody else winning the Big 12 tournament could give Duke the 1 seed over Kansas. If Xavier loses their first conference tournament game and both Duke/Kansas win their conference tournament, maybe Xavier drops. I don't see Villanova or Virginia dropping.



For the Bearcats it is simple, make the finals of the AAC tournament and they should be a 2 seed. I have them as the second 2 seed right now. I think Michigan State and Michigan having poor nonconference SOS numbers holds them back a bit with their seeds. I think Arizona can take Gonzaga's 4 seed. I also think I could be way off on Gonzaga, but I am hoping the committee at least splits the difference. They are a top 10 type team, but their RPI profile is a mixed bag. Them as a 6/7 seed would be a brutal 2nd round draw for some high seeded team.

https://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2018/03...ction.html

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...ns-matter/

Seems perception and actually watching games are important to the committee, perhaps more so than metrics such as RPI.

(03-07-2018 12:57 PM)Recluse1 Wrote:  https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...ns-matter/

Seems perception and actually watching games are important to the committee, perhaps more so than metrics such as RPI.

When that is born out with their selections I'll believe it. That stuff is selectively used but the only thing that has had predictive value are the metrics / teamsheets. There an insane amount of games and no way for the committee can watch a fraction of them. Night to night teams can look very different. No way is eye test used more than metrics that get cited.

Not so sure UC just making the finals gets them a 2 seed. Depends on what Auburn or Tennessee do. I can see either one of them switching places with UC if one wins their conf tournament and UC does not. Their resume's across the board is (or will be) better than UC's. Auburn will have a strong finish if they beat UK, and either Florida or Tennessee. And vice versa for UT if they beat Florida and Auburn. Luckily, Mich St does not have anymore chances to improve their standing. I can't see a scenario where Wich St takes UC's spot if they beat them in the championship, but stranger things have happened.

: BC and NC State making play after play. the last several minutes of this game have been crazy good.

(03-07-2018 01:10 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(03-07-2018 12:57 PM)Recluse1 Wrote:  https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...ns-matter/

Seems perception and actually watching games are important to the committee, perhaps more so than metrics such as RPI.

When that is born out with their selections I'll believe it. That stuff is selectively used but the only thing that has had predictive value are the metrics / teamsheets. There an insane amount of games and no way for the committee can watch a fraction of them. Night to night teams can look very different. No way is eye test used more than metrics that get cited.

Probably right. I'm betting they might use it when teams are close on paper, rather than evaluating them all on optics by default. I only posited that because it's weird to hear the committee member in question talking bad losses, kids will be kids, easy wins etc. Doesn't sound too impersonal and objective when things like that are being kicked around in the same conversation as the other criteria.

Arizona St is in danger of missing the tournament after being ranked #3 in December

Do wins over Xavier and Kansas in December carry you going 8-11 since and ending 1-5 in last 6 games?

(03-07-2018 05:05 PM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  Arizona St is in danger of missing the tournament after being ranked #3 in December

Do wins over Xavier and Kansas in December carry you going 8-11 since and ending 1-5 in last 6 games?

Some say the committee doesn't look your record in the last 10 games.

I'm not so sure...

I'll plop this here. Ken Broo in the house. He must be sniffin' up a conference champion's skirt...

Mark, you still like Oklahoma? I think at 18-13 they should be out

Virginia Tech choking the game away against Notre Dame. If the Irish pull this out they will probably make the tournament.

I am starting to think that UCLA, USC, and Utah are all in today with a win. Actually I think UCLA is in regardless but could fall to Dayton with a loss.

Notre Dame has to beat to Duke to get back in the conversation.
Louisville needs to beat UVA to secure a spot. 0-7 versus the top 30. 5-10 in the top two groupings is still yucky.
Oklahoma is in serious trouble. I don't believe anybody has secured an at-large bid with a 2-8 finish.
Arizona State is hanging by a thread at this point. Their wins over Xavier and Kansas are keeping them in the conversation but their computer profile is turning ugly.
Syracuse is 6-11 against the top two groups. That is an NIT profile.

In my view the door is open for the PAC-12 to get four to five bids now. Oklahoma State has a fighting chance if the knock off Kansas. Temple still needs to make AAC Finals to get a look. The A-10's top two teams look more secure than ever before. Boise State might make it with a trip to finals of the Mountain West tournament (It helps that Craig Thompson is on the committee).